Racing Insights

Racing Insights, Friday 09/02/24

Friday's free feature, the Horses for Courses (H4C) report does exactly what it says on the tin ie it shows the full course history since 2009 of any horse running that has previously had a run at the track and is sorted by number of wins, but this can be changed to any column at your discretion.

As well as today’s race time, course, horse name, jockey and trainer name, there is a breakdown of runs, wins and places, and profit and loss calculations for both win and each way betting and as with all Geegeez reports, there is a ‘Today’ and a ‘Tomorrow’ (for the next day’s racing) view.

HINT: Layers might like to look towards the lower end of the report, for those with negative performance at the track, but as ever please refer to our User Guide for further information!

My own settings (you get to choose your own parameters) for the H4C report...

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...are quite restrictive and have produced just one qualifier...

Our daily feature is always supplemented by a number of 'free' racecards...

  • 1.40 Kempton
  • 2.10 Kempton
  • 2.20 Bangor
  • 3.20 Bangor
  • 4.50 Kempton

...I was going to see if I could find myself an E/W selection or two in the North Wales National, but that's fallen by the wayside now and I'll switch attention to Master of Combat from the H4C report and the 4.07 Wolverhampton, a 12-runner, Class 4, 4yo+ A/W handicap over a left-handed 1m1½f on standard tapeta...

This looks a really competitive affair for a Class 4 handicap and plenty will fancy their chances, but only top-weight Wadacre Gomez won last time out and he's two from three. Featured runner Master of Combat (winner of 3 from 7), Arcadian Nights and Light Up Our Stars all had top three finishes on their last outings.

Law Supreme has failed to win any of his five starts in the UK and has now lost 8 in a row, whilst Buxted Too, Arcadian Nights and Light Up Our Stars are all on winless runs of nine, seven and seven races respectively and with Light Up Our Stars now stepping up in class, I'm not sure he's going to snap that cold spell.

Better news for the fast finishing pair Master of Combat and Ernie's Valentine, who both drop down a class as does Buxted Too who at five weeks since his last run, is actually the longest rested of the whole field. he has yet to win at either track or trip, but Master of Combat and Arcadian Nights are both course and distance winners, whilst Ernie's Valentine, the first-time tongue-tied Eagle Day and Light Up Our Stars have all already won over 1f shorter (1m½f) here at Wolverhampton and those course wins are highlighted below by Instant Expert...

Master of Combat's better form has come over slightly shorter trips, whilst Ernie's Valentine has struggled at both going/class. Arcadian Nights is a Class 5 runner in reality and his better Wolverhampton efforts are well over 2yrs ago. Hale End and Law Supreme both have full lines of red from a small sample size and Light Up Our Stars looks generally weak across the board, despite a 20% strike rate on standard going.

The place stats from those races above look like this...

...and if I was to split that in half, these would be the half dozen who look best on that data...

They're strung across the track in stalls 1, 2, 4, 5, 7 and 10, so if the draw stats show a lower half bias, that could be good for me. Let's check over the last 200 or so similar races...

Not exactly a low bias or much bias at all if truth be told, but those drawn highest have fared less well than the others, so that's not great for Ernie's Valentine from my half dozen and if recent performances are anything to go by, then he's a likely back marker in the early stages here...

...which is also far from ideal over a course and distance that has favoured the runners up with or just off the pace...

Summary

Based on the above and using my shortlisted half-dozen, the one I like best is the 5/1 (bet365 @ 5.25pm) Wadacre Gomez. He won last time out, is two from three, his yard is in good form, he scored well on IE and might well get a very easy/soft lead here. I also like featured horse Master of Combat, but his lack of early pace and the extended trip have dissuaded me from backing him to win this and at 7/1, he's no E/W play for me either, although he should make the frame.

Bet365 offer 4 places and 8/1 about Eagle Day, so that could well be a decent E/W bet, whilst I'm intrigued by the 20/1 offered about My Little Queen and I could well be tempted to have a couple of quid on that as an E/W option too. She's unlikely to win, but 20's looks far too big and the step up in trip should help her, as she has made the frame in half of her 16 races between 1m½f and 1m2f, winning three times.

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