Saturday's free feature is the Trainer/Jockey Combo (TJC) report, which works by bringing together the form of trainers and jockeys into a single composite report that has produced excellent results for users. Basically, some trainers turn to specific riders when they have one ‘ready to win’ and this report quickly identifies the most profitable of those combinations. Clicking on any row will reveal the entries for that trainer/jockey pairing whilst clicking on the entry will open the race in a new tab.
HINT: Look for a good sample size – ideally five or more – combined with a decent win percentage (30%+), and a positive figure in the profit column and as ever, please refer to our User Guide for further information.
My own settings for the TJC Report look like this...
...and they have generated the following runners for me to consider...
for 14-day form...
...and 30-day form...
...to consider in addition to our daily list of 'free' races, which are...
- 1.45 Curragh
- 3.05 Newmarket
- 3.40 Newmarket
- 4.30 Ascot
- 5.00 Kilbeggan
- 6.52 Lingfield
The TJC report has a couple of Class 1 (1 x Gr3 and 1 x Lst) races from nearby (to me, anyway) Haydock park, but the most valuable UK race on Saturday is on our list of free racecards, the 4.30 Ascot, aka the Shergar Cup Mile, a 10-runner, Class 2, 4yo+ flat handicap over a right-handed mile on good ground...
Top-weight Carrytheone was the only one to win last time out, but New Image was a runner-up and like Carrytheone, has won two of his last five starts and three of his last seven. Yantarni has actually won three of his last four (admittedly at lower grades than this), whilst Talis Evolvere, Tacarib Bay, Spirit Catcher and the reserve Orbaan have all won once in the last seven.
Conversely, Silent Film, Tempus, Bless Him, Bopedro and the reserve Urban Sprawl are currently winless in their last 11, 13, 14, 11 and 17 races respectively.
Spirit Catcher makes a yard debut for Philp Kirby today, whilst Yantarni steps up in class for the second race in a row, despite failing to make the frame last time out.
Tacarib Bay, New Image and Urban Sprawl have yet to win over a mile, but in their defence the first pair have yet to tackle the trip, whilst the latter is 0 from 10! Urban Sprawl has however won here at Ascot before, albeit over 7f, as has Orbaan whilst Tempus and Bless Him have both won over course and distance.
Our two-year form overview via Instant Expert makes for some difficult reading if truth be told and I even included the Class 3 stats in a bid to make the data more palatable, but that failed too!
There's certainly more negative than positive there, especially if the reserve Urban Sprawl looks best suited! My main concerns about these win stats revolve around Carrytheone (going), Silent Film (class), Tacarib Bay (class), Tempus (trip), Bless Him (going, class and track), Bopedro (going, class and trip), Spirit Catcher (class and trip), Yantarni (trip) and Orbaan (going, class, track and trip).
So with so many negative stats, I think we're going to need some help from the place data from the above races...
Doubts/concerns remain about several of these, but I think I'm going to move forward with Carrytheone, Talis Evolvere, Bopedro, Spirit Catcher, New Image and the reserve Urban Sprawl as possible placers based purely on the data above. These are set to run from stalls 2, 3, 5, 6, 8 and 12 (reserve), so of there's any draw bias here, I'm hoping that the lower stalls are the ones to benefit.
Let's check...
...and it looks like stalls 4 to 7 might be the optimal area to run from, so my 2 to 8 range might not be too badly drawn. As for race tactics/pace, those races above seem to have favoured those held up for a late run. it's not a huge advantage, but hold-up horses have won 47.9% of those races and provided 41.7% of the placers, despite only making up 37.8% of the runners...
Therefore, in an ideal world, one or more of my runners drawn in stalls 2 to 8 will be hold-up types. To work out whether that will be the case, we can look at their last few races...
...and of those five, Carrytheone is the confirmed hold-up runner. New Image, Bopedro and Talis Evolvere will also nearer the back than the front too.
Summary
Carrytheone is our only LTO winner, he was one of my chosen half from Instant Expert and has the ideal draw and pace makeup to go well here. He has two wins and a place from his last five and I think he might just have enough to get home ahead of the clearly in-form New Image.
New Image is probably the best horse in the race, but has only won 1 from 6 on Turf and has yet to tackle a mile. His pace profile doesn't quite stack up as well as Carrytheone, but he's going to be thereabouts; it could be tight!
As of 4.35pm on Friday, the market sadly agreed with me about who the best two runners might be...
If I wanted a longer-priced runner for the frame or as an E/W option, then Bopedro is borderline on price, but the 14/1 Talis Evolvere might be the one to outrun his odds.
Other Recent Posts by This Author:
- Tix Picks, Saturday 04/01/25
- Tix Picks, Friday 03/01/25
- Tix Picks, Thursday 02/01/25
- Tix Picks, Tuesday 31/12/24
- Tix Picks, Monday 30/12/24
Leave a Reply
Want to join the discussion?Feel free to contribute!