Friday's free feature, the Horses for Courses (H4C) report does exactly what it says on the tin ie it shows the full course history since 2009 of any horse running that has previously had a run at the track and is sorted by number of wins, but this can be changed to any column at your discretion.
As well as today’s race time, course, horse name, jockey and trainer name, there is a breakdown of runs, wins and places, and profit and loss calculations for both win and each way betting and as with all Geegeez reports, there is a ‘Today’ and a ‘Tomorrow’ (for the next day’s racing) view.
HINT: Layers might like to look towards the lower end of the report, for those with negative performance at the track, but as ever please refer to our User Guide for further information!
My own settings (you get to choose your own parameters) for the H4C report...
...are quite restrictive but have still produced four qualifiers...
Our daily feature is always supplemented by a number of 'free' racecards...
- 1.50 Lingfield
- 3.20 Lingfield
- 3.55 Dundalk
- 4.40 Fakenham
- 6.00 Dundalk
The second of those 'free' races has a runner from the H4C report, so why do we have a see how Starshiba might get on in the 3.20 Lingfield, an 8-runner, Class 3, 4yo+ A/W handicap over a left handed mile on standard polytrack...
We'll start with Starshiba's record at this venue which reads 3113137 including 1137 over course and distance. As for the field as a whole, only Unforgotten won last time out and comes here seeking a hat-trick on just his second start in a handicap. He's only had four runs so far, finishing 2211 including 211 at this track/trip, making him the 'form' horse, but only Farasi Lane is winless in five.
Larado is the only one to have raced at this Class 3 least time around, as sole class-dropper Darwell Lion ran at Class 2, whilst Unforgotten, Lord Rapscallion, Farasi Lane, Starshiba and Enough Already all step up from Class 4, but bottom weight Brunel Charm was well beaten in a Kempton Class 5. That was just over four months ago and aside from Darwell Lion's 52-day rest and Lord Rapscallion's run four weeks ago, the rest of the field have all seen action this month already.
Larado has won over 1m½f and Brunel Charm over 7f, but they are a combined 0 from 20 at today's trip, whilst the others have all won at the trip. Brunel Charm has at least won on this track over 7f and Brunel Charm scored over 1m2f, whilst Darwell Lion, Unforgotten and Starshiba, are all course and distance winners as shown here...
...where my early concerns centre around Larado (Going/Distance), Farasi Lane (Weight), Enough Already (Going/Distance) and Brunel Charm (Going/Distance) and their numbers on the place stats do little to inspire confidence either...
And if I was to omit those four from my thoughts for now, I'd be left with runners in stalls 3, 6, 7 & 8, so i'm hoping that if there's a draw bias here, it's in the favour of those drawn highest! There isn't a huge advantage to be gained, but given a choice based on the following stats...
...I'd prefer not to be where Darwell Lion is drawn, although closer inspection shows that stall 3 is actually the best of the low draws and has figures not too dissimilar to those drawn highest...
...so I wouldn't rule him out just yet. And whilst there's little to separate them on the draw off over 450 races, there's certainly a pace bias at play with front-runners doing best of all...
...where the basic/general premise is that the further forward you race, the better the chance you have of making the frame and ultimately going on to win, which based on this field's last four runs will suit Unforgotten more than the others...
Of the four we were looking at, Darwell Lion and Starshiba really look up against it from a hold-up position, but all Starshiba's wins/good form here at Lingfield have come from the back, so it's not impossible, but ideally you're a high drawn front runner...
Summary
After shedding half of the field at the Instant Expert phase, I was left with Darwell Lion, Unforgotten, Lord Rapscallion and Starshiba, from which Darwell Lion looks the weakest carrying top weight in poor form and running from the back of the field, so he'll not make my final three.
Of the three, Unforgotten has the best pace/draw profile, he scored well on Instant Expert and brings the best form (2211) to the table and I'd be very surprised if he didn't win this relatively comfortably off a mark just 4lbs higher than his course and distance win a fortnight ago. That was his first run for almost 23 months and it took a while for him to get going, but was quite cosy in the end and should come on for the run. Starshiba was 3.25 lengths further back that day and is now 5lbs better off with the winner, so you'd hope/expect him to get a bit nearer this time.
As for Lord Rapscallion, he steps up in class and up to a mile for the first time, but looks the type who seems to find a bit more when needed as typified by back to back wins by a shorthead at Chelmsford in December, doing all his best work late on. He would seem to be the weaker of this trio, but I wouldn't rule out his chances of making the frame.
Sadly, the bookies are also very keen on Unforgotten and he's just the wrong side of even money with both firms currently open for this race (Hills & Bet365) and both go 15/2 about the other pair. I'd expect more money to come for the fav and that might make bothStarshiba and Lord Rapscallion more attractive as E/W propositions.
Other Recent Posts by This Author:
- Tix Picks, Saturday 04/01/25
- Tix Picks, Friday 03/01/25
- Tix Picks, Thursday 02/01/25
- Tix Picks, Tuesday 31/12/24
- Tix Picks, Monday 30/12/24
