Racing Insights, Friday 19/01/24
Friday is Horses For Courses (H4C) report day at Geegeez and this feature does exactly what you'd expect, as it shows the full course history since 2009 of any horse running that has previously had a run at that track, sorted by number of wins, but this can be changed to any column at your discretion.
As well as today’s race time, course, horse name, jockey and trainer name, there is a breakdown of runs, wins and places, and profit and loss calculations for both win and each way betting. And as with all Geegeez reports, there is a ‘Today’ and a ‘Tomorrow’ (for the next day’s racing) view.
HINT: Layers might like to look towards the lower end of the report, for those with negative performance at the track, but please refer to our User Guide for further information.
My chosen settings for the report...
...have yielded a pair of qualifiers for Friday...
...and I can, of course, always fall back upon our daily list of 'free' races...
12.40 Market Rasen1.50 Market Rasen3.00 Lingfield4.10 Lingfield- 4.25 Wolverhampton
...but sadly like racing in general, the free list has been decimated by the weather. That said, the H4C report race is the most valuable UK race to have survived the weather and it's the joint highest rated, so let's a look at the 2.15 Wolverhampton featuring Follow Your Heart, Beauty Choice and eight other runners in a Class 4, 4yo+ A/W handicap over a left-handed 7f on standard tapeta...
My initial thoughts were that the three heading the market at 2.45pm (Al Farabi, Johnny James & Follow Your Heart) would be the ones to best here, but the market isn't always right, nor are my initial thoughts, so let's dive into the card.
Our two featured runners are top and bottom weights here, rated some 17lbs apart, but it's two runners from the middle of the weights, Eden Storm and Wiseacre, who are our LTO winners today. Johnny James and Al Farabi were both runners-up, though, whilst Sir Maxi was third home. All ten runners have won at least one of their last six outings and only Wiseacre has been off the track for six weeks or longer and may well need the run after a 221 day absence.
The card has denoted the bottom three in the weights, Sir Maxi, How Impressive and Beauty Choice as fast finishers, but the latter of that trio steps up a class here. Wiseacre return from a long break to make a yard debut for Des Donovan and also has to contend with stepping up two classes, but both Follow Your Heart and The Turpinator drop two classes.
The well fancied Al Farabi makes a second handicap appearance here following a 1-length defeat on debut three weeks ago, but like all bar Johnny James and the returning Wiseacre, he has already won over today's trip, whilst our four previous Wolverhampton victors, Follow Your Heart, Visibility, Eden Storm and Beauty Choice, have all won over course and distance, giving us a good smattering of green on Instant Expert...
...where How Impressive looks less than impressive (sorry!). There are doubts about Visibility at this level (1 from 11), but despite a fair amount of red, no other real causes for concern. In fact, only Visibilty, Wiseacre and How Impressive fail to have any green from the going/class/course/distance stats and I'd probably rule them out now.
Over the last five years in similar races, those drawn low to middle (especially those in stalls 2 to 6) have fared best...
...whilst those races have rally suited those keen to 'get on with things' early...
...with low to mid-drawn prominent runners faring best...
If we then look at how these runners have tackled their last few races...
Summary
It looks like Johnny James and Al Farabi fit the pace/draw requirements best here. They're both drawn low and both will be keen to hit the front end early. Wiseacre may well attempt to challenge for the lead, but he'll have to come from stall 10 and probably won't be fit enough to maintain his effort.
Both Johnny James and Al Farabi are in great form and I'd expect them to be the first two home. I have them very evenly matched, so it could go either way. That said Johnny james would offer better value at 5/1 than Al Farabi's 5/2, so make of that what you will.
You can then make a case for several of these to make the frame, but as I prefer to take 8/1 or better for an E/W bet, it does rule a few out, but one of our featured horses, Beauty Choice, might be the one, as I think he's better than 10/1 might suggest.
Other Recent Posts by This Author:
- Tix Picks, Saturday 04/01/25
- Tix Picks, Friday 03/01/25
- Tix Picks, Thursday 02/01/25
- Tix Picks, Tuesday 31/12/24
- Tix Picks, Monday 30/12/24
