Racing insights, Friday 19/04/24

As well as today’s race time, course, horse name, jockey and trainer name, there is a breakdown of runs, wins and places, and profit and loss calculations for both win and each way betting and as with all Geegeez reports, there is a ‘Today’ and a ‘Tomorrow’ (for the next day’s racing) view.

HINT: Layers might like to look towards the lower end of the report, for those with negative performance at the track, but as ever please refer to our User Guide for further information!

My own settings (you get to choose your own parameters) for the H4C report...

...are quite restrictive but have managed to produce a couple of qualifiers...

...and as always our daily feature is always supplemented by a number of 'free' racecards...

• 1.20 Ayr
• 2.42 Newbury
• 2.50 Ayr
• 4.05 Fontwell
• 4.55 Exeter
• 5.37 Ballinrobe

...and as the highest-rated NH race in the UK not only appears on our 'free' race list, but also has a H4C runner, it mades perfect sense (to me anyway!) to focus on the 2.50 Ayr, a 10-runner, Class 2, 5yo+ handicap chase over a left-handed 2m4½f on soft ground...

Sadly, our featured runner Dubai Days is now a non-runner, but it's a decent race with or without him, so I'll carry on as planned with what still looks a super-competitive race with no less than six LTO winners. Only Heltenham (2 wins from 3), Take All (3rd LTO), Soul Icon (2nd LTO) and Half Shot (pulled up) failed to win their last race, whilst Prairie Wolf (three wins from four) and Jet Plane are both coming here seeking a hat-trick and all ten runners have won at least one of their last six outings.

Top weight Heltenham drops back down in class today after an Aintree Class 1 handicap defeat (which had been preceded by hcp wins at both C1 & C2), but Nells Son, Prairie Wolf, Soul Icon, Jet Plane and General Officer might all find this race a little tougher as they step up from good runs at Class 3. All ten should, though, be primed for the task in hand as all have had at least one run in the last seven weeks (Heltenham, Jet Plane and Take All have already raced this month).

Newly-scratched H4C runner Dubai Days would have been the only previous course and distance winner in the field, but all of the others bar General Officer and Nells Son have already scored over a similar trip, whilst the latter is the sole previous course winner here at Ayr, having gone unbeaten in a pair of 2m½f bumpers on heavy ground in the winter of 20/21. Instant Expert won't show those runs, of course, as they weren't over fences, but it does highlight that...

...the likes of Heltenham, Nells Son, Prairie Wolf and Numitor should be at home on soft ground, although the latter's record at Class 2 leaves something to be desired. Take All, Half Shot and in-form Jet Plane have struggled to land soft ground chases, although the latter has some form at this trip, as do most of his rivals. From the above, Half Shot looks most vulnerable here, although his place record is, like many of his rivals, decent...

Jet Plane's form on soft ground is now a concern and his overall career record on soft stands at just 2 wins and 1 place from 14 attempts! Half Shot still looks weak here, but does get weight all round and if he runs like he normally does, then I expect him to be well up with the pace, based on his last four efforts...

...with Heltenham (like Dubai Days would have been) a confirmed hold-up horse, but those tactics tend not to work here at Ayr, if past similar contests are anything to go by...

Summary

You could at the outset, make a case for most if not all of the field to put up a decent effort here, but if remove Soul Icon, Jet Plane and Half Shot based on Instant Expert data and Heltenham based on his pace profile, I'm down to six runners, which still isn't ideal. Take All is 0 from 6 on soft ground and has only made the frame twice, so I'd say he leaves here, leaving me with half of the the 10-runner field under consideration.

The conundrum for me here is that I really like Jet Plane, but can't back him based on his soft ground form and whilst I fear that decision coming back to bite me, the two I now like best of the five under consideration are the two at the top of the pace profiler, Outlaw Peter and Prairie Wolf, in that order. They were best priced at 9/2 and 11/2 respectively at 3.45pm, whilst the full market looked like this...

The other three left in my favoured half of the field, Nells Son, Numitor and General Officer are all closely matched on my reckoning and all could feasibly make the frame, but General Officer offers the most value for those of you looking for an E/W play in a tight/tricky race.