Racing Insights, Saturday 20/04/24

Saturday's free feature is the Trainer/Jockey Combo (TJC) report, which works by bringing together the form of trainers and jockeys into a single composite report that has produced excellent results for users. Basically, some trainers turn to specific riders when they have one ‘ready to win’ and this report quickly identifies the most profitable of those combinations. Clicking on any row will reveal the entries for that trainer/jockey pairing whilst clicking on the entry will open the race in a new tab.

HINT: Look for a good sample size – ideally five or more – combined with a decent win percentage (30%+), and a positive figure in the profit column and as ever, please refer to our User Guide for further information.

My own settings for the TJC report look like this...

...and they have generated the following runners...

30-day form...

1-year form...

course 1-year form...

and course 5-year form...

...for me to consider in addition to our selection of daily 'free' races...

• 1.50 Ayr
• 2.25 Ayr
• 3.25 Bangor
• 4.40 Brighton
• 4.45 Ayr
• 7.05 Thirsk

And with all bar the 4.40 Brighton & the 4.45 Ayr from the free list also featuring in the TJC reports, it makes sense to stick with one of the other free races and of those four, two have too many runners for my liking, so I'll go with the highest-rated of the other two, the 1.50 Ayr where bottom-weight Donny Boy from above will contest a 13-runner, Class 2, 5yo+ handicap chase over a left-handed three mils on soft ground...

The bookies are paying four places or more here, so we might be able to spot a nice E/W option from a competitive-looking field including Marble Sands (2 wins from 4) and Maclaine as LTO winners, whilst Montgomery has won each of his last three. Young Buster was third after winning four out of five and Special Rate was also third after winning seven of his previous eight. Bottom weight Donny Boy is the only one without a win in six, having now been beaten in all ten starts since opening his career with a pair of wins.

None of these runners raced at Class 2 last time out with most stepping up from Class 3 to run here, but LTO winners Marble Sands and Maclaine are up two classes, whilst top weight Sharjah takes a step down after being well beaten at the Cheltenham Festival just over five weeks ago.

Most of the field raced around the same time with all bar Inch House and Young Buster (off for 70 & 84 days each) having raced in the past four to seven weeks. Deeper Blue and Donny Boy will both wear blinkers for the first time here, whilst it's a tongue-tie debut for Inch House and Ballycoose as they seek to return to winning ways.

Only Marble Sands, Ballycoose and Young Buster have visited Ayr before with just the latter failing to win here, but he is one of half a dozen (inc Inch House, Mofasa, Special Rate, Abuffalosoldier & Montgomery) who have already scored over a similar trip to this one.

I've set the Instant Expert parameters to show Class 3 form...

...as only Inch House (1 win and 1 place from 2) has tackled a Class 2 chase in the last five years. Sharjah is the sole previous Class 1 runner, having won a Grade 3 chase at Tipperary before failing to make the frame in four Grade 1 contests. From the above, you can see that Donny Boy has even struggled to win at Class 3, as has Deeper Blue. but the likes of Sharjah, Marble Sands, Inch House, Young Buster, Special Rate and Montgomery might well be the 'half' of the field to focus on, although Young Buster is 8lbs higher than his last win and a pound higher than his last run, where he was only third of seven in a Class 3 contest. Add in his twelve-week layoff and this might be a bit tough for him here, especially if he starts to blow a bit from attempting to set the pace, as his recent efforts suggest he might...

Sadly, I can't tell you whether those tactics might be good or bad, as there's very little data in the pace profiler for today's expected race conditions...

...so I'm going to rely on the quantifiable (form & Instant Expert) and the unquantifiable ie gut feeling!

Summary

The ones I took from Instant Expert were Sharjah, Marble Sands, Inch House, Young Buster, Special Rate and Montgomery from which Marble Sands, Young Buster, Special Rate and Montgomery appear to be in the best form, so I'm going to take those four forward as I seek an E/W bet or two (three/four?). So let's look at the 7pm market...

...and I'm definitely interested in Montgomery and Marble Sands, with Montgomery probably being my winner today. Young Buster and Special Rate are more speculative, of course, but I think both are better than the odds might suggest and both are more than capable of making the frame here. Class dropping Sharjah might well get involved too.

Other Recent Posts by This Author:

• Tix Picks, Wednesday 04/12/24
• Tix Picks, Tuesday 03/12/24
• Tix Picks, Monday 02/12/24
• Tix Picks, Saturday 30/11/24
• Tix Picks, Thursday 28/11/24