Friday's free feature, the Horses for Courses (H4C) report does exactly what it says on the tin ie it shows the full course history since 2009 of any horse running that has previously had a run at the track and is sorted by number of wins, but this can be changed to any column at your discretion.
As well as today’s race time, course, horse name, jockey and trainer name, there is a breakdown of runs, wins and places, and profit and loss calculations for both win and each way betting and as with all Geegeez reports, there is a ‘Today’ and a ‘Tomorrow’ (for the next day’s racing) view.
HINT: Layers might like to look towards the lower end of the report, for those with negative performance at the track, but as ever please refer to our User Guide for further information!
My own settings (you get to choose your own parameters) for the H4C report...
...are fairly restrictive but have still produced a trio of qualifiers...
...with Corinthia Knight of immediate interest. Our daily feature is always supplemented by a number of 'free' racecards and for Friday they are...
- 1.50 Newbury
- 4.00 Nottingham
- 4.10 Newbury
- 5.55 Hamilton
- 6.10 Kilbeggan
- 7.30 Newmarket
And I think I'll turn to the highest class/most valuable race from the free list, which is the 4.10 Newbury, a 9-runner, Class 3, 3yo+ fillies' flat handicap over a left-handed 1m5½f on good ground and here's how they'll line up...
My initial thoughts were that this might well be a two-horse race between the 3pm Hills' 11/4 joint favourites, Spring Fever and Flower of Dubai, but that any of their rivals, bar Tashi (who looks weak), could be contenders for the places, so let's dive in...
Night Sparkle and Spring Fever both won last time out and have won two of their last three outings, whilst Flash Bardot also won LTO and is two from four. Flower of Dubai is two from five and only Tashi is winless in more than seven races, having now lost her ,last twelve in a run stretching back over two years. She has won just once in twenty-three attempts and I'm already saying that she's not for me here despite wearing a hood for the first time. It would have to have magical powers, I think!
Secret Shadow and Flower of Dubai both drop down a class and the latter will fancy her chances after only going down by a length at Haydock last time out. Spring Fever, Divina Grace and Alba Longa are, however, up one class, whilst Flash Bardot's win last week was at Class 5.
That was only last Thursday and she's turned back out quickest of these nine. Most of her rivals have raced in the last six weeks or so, but Secret Shadow has been rested for three months.
She is, however, the only previous course and distance winner in the field. None of the others have won here before (mind you, Haseefah's run here in December 2021 is the only other appearance by any of the field) and only top weight Night Sparkle has scored over a similar trip.
Three of the field have already won on good ground and three have won at this grade, according to Instant Expert...
...which sadly doesn't carry as much data as I generally hope for. It does, however, highlight the wretched form of Tashi and suggests that Haseefah might struggle in this grade. It also points out that both Night Sparkle and Spring Fever are now rated 10lbs higher than their last wins, whilst both Flash Bardot and Alba Longa are carrying considerably more weight than when last victorious.
The place stats don't shed too much more light on this field...
...but they do suggest that Divina Grace likes the good ground better than her 0 from 3 record might imply, whilst Hassefah's form at this level isn't as bad as it first seemed and whilst it's almost a year since Secret Shadow last won, she has been running in much better races than this and looks the pick of the pack purely on the data above.
I'm normally fairly dismissive of the effects of the draw over trips of 1m2f and beyond as I believe that there's ample time to undo a 'bad' draw and here at Newbury in races of 1.5 miles and further, it looks like I'd be right in those assertion...
The apparent success of the lower drawn horses is a massively skewed by a freak number of winners from stall 2 and based on that data above, there's only stall 1 that has struggled to make the frame, which is further good news for the jt favs, who will emerge from stalls 5 & 6. They're drawn side-by-side but if they're going to be the first two home, they're likely to be a fair distance apart during the actual race itself, as I'd expect Spring Fever to be up with the pace, whilst Flower of Dubai tends to be produced quite late, if recent outings are anything to go by...
If we then revisit those races used for the draw stats, we can see that those setting the pace here often become a target for the chasing pack to aim for and they do generally catch and beat those leaders...
...which must be advantage Flower of Dubai in that battle of the jt favs.
Summary
I do think that the 3pm joint favs Flower of Dubai and Spring Fever are the best two runners in the race, but the hold-up approach by the former tips the scales in her favour for me, so I'm with Flower of Dubai for this one. Bet365 have opened up since I wrote the pre-amble and go 7/2 about Flower of Dubai and whilst that's not over generous, it's at least fair.
Spring Fever should still be good enough to hold on and make the frame, but who joins them? Well, I could make a case for several, but on an ability vs risk vs reward/value basis, I think I'd take a small E/W punt on Secret Shadow, who looks far too long at 20/1 with Bet365. Hills go 11/1 about her and that's more realistic in my opinion.
