Racing Insights, Friday 28/06/24

Friday is Horses For Courses (H4C) report day at Geegeez and this feature does exactly what you'd expect, as it shows the full course history since 2009 of any horse running that has previously had a run at that track, sorted by number of wins, but this can be changed to any column at your discretion.

As well as today’s race time, course, horse name, jockey and trainer name, there is a breakdown of runs, wins and places, and profit and loss calculations for both win and each way betting. And as with all Geegeez reports, there is a ‘Today’ and a ‘Tomorrow’ (for the next day’s racing) view.

HINT: Layers might like to look towards the lower end of the report, for those with negative performance at the track, but please refer to our User Guide for further information.

My fairly restrictive chosen settings for the H4C report...

...have still managed to yield three qualifiers, but your own chosen parameters might give even more joy...

This free report is, of course, backed up by our daily list of 'free' races...

• 2.55 Yarmouth
• 4.05 Yarmouth
• 5.25 Newcastle
• 6.40 Curragh
• 8.20 Newcastle
• 8.45 Newmarket

The highest-rated of the eight UK races listed above probably has a runner or two more than I'm normally comfortable with, but I think I'll still take a look at the 5.25 Newcastle, a 14-runner, Class 2, 3yo+ A/W handicap over a straight 5f on standard tapeta...

Copper Knight actually won this race in 2018 and was the runner-up in 2019, whilst the fast-finisher Vintage Clarets' sole A/W outing to date saw him home as the 12/1 winner in last year's renewal.

FORM : Navello and Copper Knight both won last time out, whilst Prince of Zenda, Navello, Ziggy's Missile and Mattice have all won at least two of their last six outings. Thunder Moor and Moonstone Boy both finished third on their last runs. Winless in seven or more, though are Makanah, Bergerac and Monsieur Kodi after 9, 7 and 9 consecutive defeats respectively.

CLASS : Ziggy's Missile and Copper Knight are both up one class, whilst it's a two-step rise for Moonstone Boy and Monsieur Kodi.

WHAT'S NEW : Project Dante makes a yard debut for Geoff Oldroyd and it's first time equipment/headgear for Thunder Moor (blinkers) and Ziggy's Missile (cheekpieces).

COURSE/DISTANCE FORM : All bar Brazen Bolt and Prince of Zenda have won over today's trip already, but this pair have at least won here at Newcastle in the past; the former over both 6f and 7f with the latter winning over 6f. We know that by winning this race in previous years that Vintage Clarets and Copper Knight are course and distance winners, but Bergerac also scored over track and trip last November.

LAST RAN : Most of the field have raced in the last five weeks, but Brazen Bolt returns from a 15-week layoff which isn't ideal, but it's hardly anything like that of Project Dante who hasn't been since finishing 14th of 19 at Doncaster in mid-September 2022!

Our two-year form snapshot on Instant Expert doesn't show a glut of A/W racing, but this is how they've fared in that time frame...

...where aside from Vintage Clarets' win here last year, Ziggy's Missile looks interesting. He's the only 3yr old in the race and gets a 6lbs allowance for that and his A/W form reads 1121, all over 5f with two wins at Southwell and 1 at Wolverhampton. His sole defeat was here at Newcastle over course and distance just before Easter when beaten by a head, getting caught late on by a horse that is 2 from 2 since.

Despite the abundance of red above, it's all off less than five runs, so I'd be reluctant to use this data to rule any of these out right now, but I would want to see them having made the frame a few times...

This speaks for itself, I think. The regular placers are the ones most likely to be involved again, so from Instant Expert, these are the ones I'm leaning towards...

I've taken five runners out so far (I left Copper Knight and Navello in on form), but I've still got horses strung across the full width of the stalls. That said, I'm not expecting a huge draw bias on a straight 5f on an artificial surface, but we'd better check, just in case.

And apart from a couple of stalls results looking a little anomalous, there probably isn't a massive amount to be gained from the draw in 13/14 runner 5f sprints on the tapeta here...

Perhaps the rail has helped stall 1 to win so often, which might encourage the connections of Mattice, whose sole A/W run to date saw him go down by just a shirt head over this course and distance. I'm not sure why stall 11 has fared so well though! The key here, of course, is likely to be pace, as those races have clearly those willing to set the early tempo...

...which based on the field's recent efforts probably provides more hope for the likes of Copper Knight, Prince of Zenda, Mattice and Thunder Moor than it does for Burning Cash and Vintage Clarets...

Interestingly, though, despite a real draw bias, the way pace and draw have worked together is interesting if you take a look at the pace/draw heat map...

If we then check back to the top end of the pace chart, we see that Copper Knight, Prince of Zenda, Mattice and Thunder Moor will emerge from stalls 4, 6, 1 and 12.

Summary

You could make a case for half the field to win this and I don't have a particularly strong leaning towards any of them, but from Instant Expert and the pace/draw heatmap I am interested in Copper Knight, Prince of Zenda and Mattice from at least a place perspective. Copper Knight is proven over track and trip and won last time out, so comes here in good nick too.

The bookies are paying four places (Sky go to 5, of course!), so I'm going to suggest Copper Knight, Prince of Zenda and Mattice as E/W possibles. The only book open at 5pm Thursday was Hills and they offered 13/2, 15/2 and 16/1 about this trio.

I'd also expect Vintage Clarets (15/2) and Navello (6/1) to run well, whilst it's not beyond the realms of possibility for Ziggy's Missile to continue his good A/W progress and make the frame at 12/1. In fact he might also be a live E/W prospect. I told you that I could make a case for several of these! It could be a cracking race.

Other Recent Posts by This Author:

• Tix Picks, Tuesday 10/12/24
• Tix Picks, Monday 09/12/24
• Tix Picks, Saturday 07/12/24
• Tix Picks, Friday 06/12/24
• Tix Picks, Thursday 05/12/24