Saturday's free feature is the Trainer/Jockey Combo (TJC) report, which works by bringing together the form of trainers and jockeys into a single composite report that has produced excellent results for users. Basically, some trainers turn to specific riders when they have one ‘ready to win’ and this report quickly identifies the most profitable of those combinations. Clicking on any row will reveal the entries for that trainer/jockey pairing whilst clicking on the entry will open the race in a new tab.
HINT: Look for a good sample size – ideally five or more – combined with a decent win percentage (30%+), and a positive figure in the profit column and as ever, please refer to our User Guide for further information.
My own settings for the TJC Report look like this...
...and they have generated the following runners for me to look at...
In addition to those as always, we have a list of fully functional 'free' racecards each day, which for Saturday cover...
- 3.10 Newcastle
- 3.40 Newcastle
- 5.25 Newcastle
- 5.40 Lingfield
- 7.30 Doncaster
- 8.00 Doncaster
The free list starts with a couple of Class 2 contests, but the 3.10 race is a 20-runner affair, which isn't my thing, so we'll move down the list one place and consider the 3.40 Newcastle, a 12-runner, Class 2, 3yo+, A/W handicap over a straight 7f on standard to slow tapeta...
Bottom weight Local Hero has two wins and a runner-up finish form his four career starts and not only does he receive a 9lb weight allowance as the only 3 yr old in the field, he's also the sole LTO winner with only his oldest rival here, the 11yo Documenting, managing to make the frame.
The old warrior also won two starts back and most of the field have won at least once in their last six outings, apart from Make Me King, Raadobarg and Zip who are on losing runs of 8, 15 and 9 races respectively.
Four of the bottom five in the weights are up in class with Yermanthere and Zip stepping up from Class 3, whilst both Giant and Local Hero are up from Class 4. United Approach is the odd one out on the bottom five of the card, as he was fourth of eleven at Newbury at this grade last month after two wins on the bounce. That last run was his handicap debut and he makes just a second handicap appearance today, as does Local Hero.
Documenting last raced seven weeks ago, Make Me King and Baradar ran as recently as last Thursday (20th June) and the others have all raced at some point in between. United Approach is the only one yet to win over today's trip; all his four starts have been over 6f, whilst only four horses have even raced here at Newcastle. Liamarty Dreams, Eldrickjones and Zip have all won over course and distance, but Documenting could only finish 8th of 9 over track and trip back in December 2022 on his only prior visit.
A few of these are short on recent A/W experience, if truth be told...
...but of the above the positives are clearly Eldrickjones (track/trip) and Local hero (going), but Zip has struggled to win at Class 2 and here at Newcastle, even if he has won over course and distance. Those races above from a place perspective look like this...
...showing Zip in a whole new light. He hasn't won any of nine starts and is up in class, he has struggled to win here of late and has a poor Class 2 record, so I've already written him off as a win bet, but those place stats are impressive enough for him to remain in my thoughts for now as a possible E/W option. His last dozen A/W runs have finished 216132535562 and he was a course and distance runner-up on his last A/W outing. Giant and Edlrickjones also have solid place credentials so far.
We've not much in the way of any draw bias here...
...which is probably to be expected over an A/W straight 7f, so we'll turn immediately to the pace stats from those races to see if there's any help forthcoming. Strangely, there's not much of a pace bias either...
...but those racing furthest forward make the frame most often and if you're not in the frame, you're not winning, so I'll be wanting a horse that races prominently or further advanced if possible. Hold-up horses have, of course, fared the worst as is often the case over a straight 7f, but I don't think that'll be the case here as they might go off at a fair clip with no confirmed hold-up types in the field...
..and if we look at the pace/draw heat map, we've a sort of diagonal 'corridor of success' from low drawn leaders, mid-drawn prominence and high-drawn runners in midfield...
...which, if I'm being harsh, seems to rule Documenting, United Approach, Raadobarg, Baradar, Grey's Monument and Zip out. That said, I'd keep United Approach on recent form and Zip on his ability to make the frame, so I'm still left with eight runners.
Summary
I've decided against Documenting, Raadobarg, Baradar and Grey's Monument already and I'll add Make Me King to that list due to his poor recent form. Liamarty Dreams' last four A/W runs have all been here at Newcastle with finishes of 7689, losing by an average of around 8.5 lengths, so he's not for me either, whilst all Yermanthere's form is on soft-ish ground, leaving me with these five to choose from...
Any of this group is good enough to make the frame here and I really like United Approach, but I just think that 4/1 is a little short for a horse with no A/W experience stepping up to 7f for the first time. Don't get me wrong, he really could win here and win well, but I think there's more value in the 11/1 being offered about Eldrickjones and I'd see that as an E/W option here. He has three wins here at Newcastle, including two over course and distance and all his A/W runs have been on Tapeta, finishing 26121521.
Zip's a three-time C&D winner and was second to Eldrickjones last month and is now 7lbs better off, so could also be an option at 8/1. Local Hero is sure to get involved carrying no weight and in good form, but he's only 5/1 and up two classes, whilst Giant is another who makes E/W appeal at 8/1. He has two wins and five further places from eight starts over 7f on the A/W and whilst also up in class here, should put another decent effort in.
I've left a few in, as the bookies are paying four places here and the odds quoted were correct as of 4.50pm Friday.
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