Friday's free feature, the Horses for Courses (H4C) report does exactly what it says on the tin ie it shows the full course history since 2009 of any horse running that has previously had a run at the track and is sorted by number of wins, but this can be changed to any column at your discretion.
As well as today’s race time, course, horse name, jockey and trainer name, there is a breakdown of runs, wins and places, and profit and loss calculations for both win and each way betting and as with all Geegeez reports, there is a ‘Today’ and a ‘Tomorrow’ (for the next day’s racing) view.
HINT: Layers might like to look towards the lower end of the report, for those with negative performance at the track, but as ever please refer to our User Guide for further information!
My own settings (you get to choose your own parameters) for the H4C report...
...are quite restrictive but have still produced a couple of qualifiers...
...including Challet, whose record at York over the last couple of years reads 113337.
Our daily feature is always supplemented by a number of 'free' racecards...
- 2.35 Thirsk
- 3.00 Ascot
- 4.55 Thirsk
- 5.00 York
- 5.22 Cork
- 5.57 Cork
I'm not too enthused by either H4C race nor the free list, but with the recent poor weather affecting the going across the country, I think I'll look for a race where trip and going are at the end of the spectrum, so let's try the 4.45 Ascot, which is an 8-runner, Class 4, 3yo+ fillies flat handicap over a straight 5f on soft ground, that should be better in places...
Glamorous Breeze and Cruise both won last time out and both are two from three, although the former fared better than the latter on their penultimate runs and she also drops in class here, as do Lil Guff, Cuban Breeze and Woolhampton, but bottom weight Sarah's Verse is up a level here. Cuban Breeze is winless for almost a year now, losing 17 on the bounce, but has made the frame in 5 of her last six.
There's nothing new/different to report on this field and all of them have had a run in the last month, with Cuban Breeze turned back out just a week after finishing as runner-up at Newmarket. She's the only one of this bunch to have already won here at Ascot, having scored over course and distance just over a year ago off a mark 3lbs lower than today. Only Origintrail, Woolhampton and Holy Fire have yet to win over this minimum distance.
Four of the field have previously tackled soft ground, with two going on to win and four of these runners have won at this grade before, with only Holy Fire yet to run at Class 4 on turf, according to Instant Expert...
Lil Guff and Sarah's Verse don't seem to mind the soft ground, but most of Cuban Breeze's best form has been on Good to Firm ground (as it normally is for this meeting!) or on the tapeta at Wolverhampton. Glamorous Breeze has consistently made the frame at both class (8 from 13) and trip (17 from 27) and she has 11 top 3 finishes from 13 races over 5f at Class 4.
We don't have much data for similar past contests here at Ascot, so I've tweaked the parameters slightly to try to see if the draw might affect Glamorous Breeze's chances out in stall 8 of 8...
...but I don't think the draw will be a deciding factor. Yeah, Cuban Breeze will be grateful to have got stall 1, which has produced a freakishly large number of winners, probably due to having the rail there to keep them straight, but aside from that, there doesn't seem to be a huge bias. Cuban Breeze hasn't won for some time, but makes the frame pretty often and that consistency allied to the 'plum' draw will make her popular and I suspect that, based on her last few outings, she's likely to be up with the pace, whilst Sarah's Verse will have to come flying late on, if she's to win here...
The pace stats here, however, suggest that coming from the back wouldn't be the best move and that those furthest forward would have the best chance...
Summary
On the face of it, Cuban Breeze should be the one to beat. She has been running consistently well of late, seems to have the best of the draw and is likely to be up with the pace. Sadly, as the one to beat, she seems to do just that ie get beat! She's on a 17-race losing streak and is still only 2lbs lower than her last win and runs off the same mark as her last four runs/losses, so I'm now expecting it to be another 'close, but no cigar' run for her.
She's good for the frame and at 13/2 with Hills at 3.15pm, could be one for a place/EW bet, but for the win I prefer Glamorous Breeze for her consistency at this class/trip and she comes here in great form and I think she can land her third win in four starts. She's currently 9/2 which is about right, I'd say and I'd guess the 1-2-3 would be completed by Woolhampton or Lil Guff. Neither are long enough at 11/2 for me to go E/W and if pushed, I prefer the latter of the two.
As for our 4/1 favourite Cruise, her four races on turf have ended 4686 and I'd rather back her the next time she's on the tapeta.
Other Recent Posts by This Author:
- Tix Picks, Saturday 04/01/25
- Tix Picks, Friday 03/01/25
- Tix Picks, Thursday 02/01/25
- Tix Picks, Tuesday 31/12/24
- Tix Picks, Monday 30/12/24
