Friday is Horses For Courses (H4C) report day at Geegeez and this feature does exactly what you'd expect, as it shows the full course history since 2009 of any horse running that has previously had a run at that track, sorted by number of wins, but this can be changed to any column at your discretion.
As well as today’s race time, course, horse name, jockey and trainer name, there is a breakdown of runs, wins and places, and profit and loss calculations for both win and each way betting. And as with all Geegeez reports, there is a ‘Today’ and a ‘Tomorrow’ (for the next day’s racing) view.
HINT: Layers might like to look towards the lower end of the report, for those with negative performance at the track, but please refer to our User Guide for further information.
My chosen settings for the H4C report...
...have yielded a couple of qualifiers...
...and this report is, of course, backed up by our daily list of 'free' races...
- 5.10 Yarmouth
- 6.05 Curragh
- 7.00 Newmarket
- 7.10 Newcastle
- 7.25 Chester
- 7.50 Curragh
...and of the four 'free' UK races and the two on my H4C list, the highest-rated is the 8.45 Newmarket, an 11-runner, Class 3, 3yo+ flat handicap over a right-handed 1m2f (+25yds for rails) on ground that is currently good to soft...
The early (3.30pm) show from the bookies suggested a three horse race between Peace Man (2/1 fav), Like A Tiger (4/1) and First Sight (also 4/1) with no other runner shorter than 17/2. The bookies may well be right, but there's also the chance of an E/W bet from the challengers, so let's dive in...
Peace Man and First Sight both come here on a hat-trick, so at least one winning run will end here. None of the others managed to win last time out, but all bar Cap Francais have won won at least one of their last five runs.
Plenty of these are class movers today with only four (Gloucestershire, hat-trick seeking Peace Man, Queen of the Skies and bottom weight The Parent) having raced at Class 3 last time around. Of the other eight, three (Turntable, Encourageable & Cap Francais) drop down from Class 2, whilst Like A Tiger and Regal Empire were both last seen in Listed company. Two then step up in class here; Inigo Jones and hat-trick seeker First Sight, who move from Class 4 and 5 respectively.
Not only is First Sight up two classes here, this will be his turf debut after winning two from three on the A/W and this is his handicap debut. It's a second handicap run for Queen of the Skies and Like A Tiger, whilst Inigo Jones runs for Alice Haynes for the first time since leaving Jamie Osborne. Cap Francais aims to get off the cold list by wearing first time cheekpieces.
First Sight returns from 22 weeks off the track and both Gloucestershire and Inigo Jones also come off 100+ day breaks, but the rest of the field have been seen in the last eight weeks; The Parent raced as recently as the 17th of this month.
Turntable is the only previous course winner, having scored over a mile here back in July 2020, but has won over 1m, 1m1f and today's 1m2f trip on the Rowley course! Peace Man, Queen of the Skies, Inigo Jones, Like A Tiger and First Sight have all also won over a similar trip before now.
We have four three year olds in the race here and they're the four lowest weights (ie last four on the card, thanks to a very useful 12lbs weight for age allowance which moves Like A Tiger from 1lb shy of top weight all the way down to 8th in the weights, which could be very handy for him, First Sight, Regal Empire and The Parent.
It is, of course, First Sight's turf debut, so he has no stats to show on the following Instant Expert graphic, which also highlights three previous winners on good to soft ground and five Class 3 winners as well as the course/distance victors mentioned earlier...
There's not actually that much data to work from here and First Sight's lack of Flat activity is probably no worse than having tried and failed. He runs for the in-form (as always!) Charlie Appleby who has a great record here at HQ, so there's no doubt that the horse will have been well prepped. I'm not taking much from that graphic above, other than making a note of Cap Francais' poor record at the trip, but I will just have a quick look at place stats before moving on to the draw...
Cap Francais hasn't been that unlucky over the trip either and The Parent looks better suited at class 4, where he finished 313, as opposed to his three runs ending 463 at this level (3rd of 7 LTO). Turntable has fared better over 1m and 1m1f, but his record here at Newmarket is excellent and he really gets the good to soft ground. He's drawn quite high in 8 of the 11 stalls and this track/trip has favoured those drawn little lower in the past...
You'll notice that I've had to tweak a criteria a little to give myself some data to work with, but the stall by stall numbers seem to back up the graphic above...
...but whilst you'd want stalls 1 to 5 (good for the two jt 2nd favs), there's not a huge bias at play here, especially on the place stats and as is often the case in races beyond a mile the pace of the contest becomes more of a key factor and those races above have favoured those setting the fractions...
...which, based on the field's recent efforts, would appear to be more advantageous to Peace Man that for example Cap Francais...
Summary
Sadly I concur with the bookies and Peace Man is the one to beat here. he ticks the box on form, won at this grade LTO, gets the trip and is likely to lead. Stall 9 isn't ideal, but if you're good enough, you're good enough. He was still 2/1 with Hills at 4.40pm, when I checked back and that was the Oddschecker tissue price, so I suppose that's fair.
The two 4/1 shots Like A Tiger and First Sight will need their 12lb weight allowance to stay competitive here, as I'm not sure they're as good as the fav and one or both might well make the frame. I'm not sure they would without the allowance and if one/both falter, I'd probably side with bottom weight and Frankel-offspring The Parent to take advantage as my E/W possible at 17/2. Turntable would need to up his game here, but that's not beyond the realms of possibility and for those brave enough to back him, 16/1 could be a great price, especially with some firms paying four places.
I apologise for the predictable outcome, but sometimes you have to agree with the bookies!
Other Recent Posts by This Author:
- Tix Picks, Saturday 04/01/25
- Tix Picks, Friday 03/01/25
- Tix Picks, Thursday 02/01/25
- Tix Picks, Tuesday 31/12/24
- Tix Picks, Monday 30/12/24
