Wow! The second half of the year is already upon us and it kicks off on a Saturday, whose free feature is the Trainer/Jockey Combo (TJC) report, which works by bringing together the form of trainers and jockeys into a single composite report that has produced excellent results for users. Basically, some trainers turn to specific riders when they have one ‘ready to win’ and this report quickly identifies the most profitable of those combinations. Clicking on any row will reveal the entries for that trainer/jockey pairing whilst clicking on the entry will open the race in a new tab.
HINT: Look for a good sample size – ideally five or more – combined with a decent win percentage (30%+), and a positive figure in the profit column and as ever, please refer to our User Guide for further information.
My own settings for the TJC Report look like this...
...and they have generated just one qualifier, as follows...
Thankfully I do also have our selection of daily 'free' races at my disposal...
- 12.40 Newmarket
- 1.57 Chester
- 2.05 Newcastle
- 2.50 Curragh
- 3.50 Newcastle
- 5.30 Lingfield
The 'free' list is headed by a Listed contest from HQ, but unexposed 2yr old fillies aren't really my thing and the Northumberland Plate has far too many (19) runners for my liking, but not long after the Plate comes a useful looking contest on the 'free' list at the same venue, so let's look at the 3.50 Newcastle today. It's an 8-runner (fingers crossed), Class 3, 4yo+ A/W handicap over a left-handed 1m2f on standard to slow tapeta...
Bottom weight Shimmering Sands was the only one of these to win last time out, but all his rivals have won at least one of their last seven outings. Qaasid is in good consistent form, finishing in the first three home in 8 of his last 9 nine starts (inc 2 wins) and he's the only previous course and distance winner in the field and also the only one to have raced at Class 3 last time out.
Elsewhere, Mr Curiosity, Thundering, Noble & Persist all drop in from Class 2, whilst the bottom three on the card, Cockalorum, Innse Gall and Shimmering Sands are all up in class. Aside from C&D winner, Qaasid, only Thundering has won here before, landing a 1m4½f handicap a little over a year ago, but he's one of two along with Mr Curiosity yet to win at today's trip.
The afore-mentioned Mr Curiosity might well need the run after 238 days off the track and at 273 days, you could say the same about Persist, whilst both of their rivals have raced in the past 5 to 7 weeks, bar Cockalorum who was in action at Pontefract last Sunday and will be running for the fourth time since the end of May!
Cockalorum has, in fact, competed 48 times already, whilst this will be just a fifth outing for Nobel and only his second in handicap company, but he did win his sole A/W outing. Instant Expert adds to the above data by informing us that a couple of these are running off marks considerably higher than their last win...
I've a feeling that the place stats might help us a little bit more in the way of data...
...but I'm not sure they clarify the picture for me! Good to see so much green, of course and this remains the course if we look at just A/W form...
...with the sole exception of Shimmering Sands, who tackles the A/W for the first time after ten runs on Turf. He's 3 from 3 over 1m2f including that win LTO, but he's up in class and weight and that allied to no A/W experience might just be too many unknowns here. He's drawn pretty centrally, though, in stall 4 of 8 and is likely to have to pass quite a few runners later on if he's wanting to win again, as the field's recent runs suggest he's probably going to be held up in the rear with the returning Persist...
A quick look at past similar races here says that Shimmering Sand's lower half draw is ideal here, but that his hold-up tactics haven't been the best approach here, as those tracking the leader(s) have fared best of all...
...which is probably better for the likes of Qaasid, just inside him in stall 3, whilst our pace/draw heat map looks like this with our runners superimposed on it...
Nobel is likely to set the pace, but Qaasid seems to have the ideal draw/pace profile here. Thundering will go off quickly, but he's in terrible form, whilst the draw might account for Cockalorum.
Summary
The pace/draw heat map says we should focus on Persist, Thundering, Qaasid and Noble. Noble's a little high in the draw and will be the target they aim for, he's also not in the best of form and has only one prior A/W outing, way back in December 2021. Qaasid, however, is in good nick, has the ideal pace/draw balance and is 2 from 3 on standard to slow and he's the one I'd want to be with here. he's a 5/1 shot in my book, so Bet365's price of 11/2 (at 4.40pm) is acceptable to me.
Of the others, Persist should go well and he'd be a real contender for me off his low draw if he'd had a run at some point in the last nine months and odds of 3/1 aren't appealing. The one at a longer price that might go well for E/W purposes could be Innse Galle near the foot of the weights. He has made the frame in 6 of 7 at this trip, placed twice in four Newcastle outings including two from three over course and distance (a 1-length defeat as runner-up in March) and although this is tougher than his usual races, he's not a bad E/W shout at 10/1.
Other Recent Posts by This Author:
- Tix Picks, Saturday 04/01/25
- Tix Picks, Friday 03/01/25
- Tix Picks, Thursday 02/01/25
- Tix Picks, Tuesday 31/12/24
- Tix Picks, Monday 30/12/24
