The pace tab on our racecards helps to make a reasoned assumption based upon a field's most recent runs as to how their next race might unfold. This information is vastly under-used by UK bettors, but we feel it's that important that we make this info totally free for all races every Sunday & Monday.
This, of course, includes our daily free races, which for Monday are...
- 2.05 Southwell
- 2.17 Plumpton
- 4.30 Leopardstown
- 6.30 Wolverhampton
In all honesty, I wouldn't be having a bet in any of those, so for the purpose of the column, I'm going to focus upon the 3.52 Plumpton instead. It's the highest rated race in the UK on Monday and there's seems to be a good spread in terms of pace scores, as you see shortly. The race itself is a 7-runner, Class 3, 4yo+ handicap hurdle over a left handed 2 miles and 74 yards (after a 99yd rail movement) on soft ground...
My initial thoughts here were that it should be a competitive contest between Mr Freedom, Classic Lord, Mr Mackay and Saligo Bay (in racecard order), with the remaining trio fighting not to be last home, but the analysis might tell/persuade me otherwise, so let's look at the details of a field that have all raced inside the last 73 days and have all (bar Classic Lord@ 18 days off) had at least five weeks rest.
Holly is our sole LTO winner, but Mr Freedom was a runner-up, as were Classic Lord and Mr Mackay. Classic Lord is two from his last four and Mr Freedom has only failed to finish in the first three once in his last nine outings (1113233U2) and all runners here have managed at least one win in their last seven efforts, apart from bottom weight and handicap debutant Highway One O Five, who is a six-race maiden who has yet to make the frame in three efforts over hurdles, being beaten by 17.5, 14.5 and 40.5 lengths and it's hard to imagine him winning here.
Holly, Classic Lord, Saligo Bay and Mardoof (who runs in a handicap for just the second time) are all up one class from C4 today, but all four have previously won at this kind of trip, as has top-weight Mr Freedom, who has also previously won here at Plumpton, landing a 2m1½f hurdle back in September 2022. Saligo Bay is the only other course winner, having landed a seller over course and distance two starts ago.
Instant Expert looks a bit bleak today...
...with a distinct lack of positivity, aside from our two course winners, of whom, Saligo Bay looks the pick on those meagre stats, especially with the top two on card both rated more than half a stone heavier than their last wins. I should, however, point out that not all of the defeats above have been bad runs and there have been quite a few placed efforts...
...with Mr Freedom's consistency catching the eye, along with Mardoof (trip), Mr Mackay (class/trip) and Saligo Bay (course and distance).
Today's free feature is, of course, pace and pace is as important over a two mile hurdle as it is over say a mile on the Flat, because race tactics and judgement of tempo are crucial in both. We have two ways into the pace data, firstly via our pace analyser, which for this race looks like this...
...which says that runners setting the pace/tempo of the race have a 26.32% strike rate, whilst those who don't lead only win 11.3% of the time, so leaders are 2.33 times more likely to win and by the same calculations are1 .69 times more likely to make the frame. So the first part of how we use pace is both interesting and useful, but how can we apply it to this race?
How will we know who's going to lead? Well, the truth is that we don't know, but we do know how horses have approached all the previous UK & Ireland races and by looking back at their most recent efforts, we can make an informed opinion (guess?), as to how they'll run again. We award 1 to 4 pts for every run, 1 for a hold-up horse, 2 = ran in mid-division, 3 = raced prominently and 4 = led. So if a horse has a recent average pace score of 1.50 or lower, then he'll look like a hold-up horse, but runners with an average approaching or hitting 4.0 will be expected to be the pacesetters, just like Classic Lord here...
Summary
Today's free feature is pace and we've been told that leaders do far better here than those who don't and our proven pace horse is Saligo Bay, who has made the frame in 2 from 5 on soft ground, 3 from 5 here at Plumpton and 8 from 11 over this type of trip. He's also our only course and distance winner and he'd be the one I'd go with here. Next best for me is probably Mr Freedom, who raced prominently last time out, has made the frame in 8 of his last 9, scoring really well on the place element of Instant Expert and is our other former course winner.
The opening show from Hills suggests we're not getting rich here..
...but hopefully we'll get a good run from the two I've highlighted.
Other Recent Posts by This Author:
- Tix Picks, Saturday 04/01/25
- Tix Picks, Friday 03/01/25
- Tix Picks, Thursday 02/01/25
- Tix Picks, Tuesday 31/12/24
- Tix Picks, Monday 30/12/24
