Racing Insights, Saturday 02/03/2024

Saturday's free feature is the Trainer/Jockey Combo (TJC) report, which works by bringing together the form of trainers and jockeys into a single composite report that has produced excellent results for users.

Basically, some trainers turn to specific riders when they have one ‘ready to win’ and this report quickly identifies the most profitable of those combinations. Clicking on any row will reveal the entries for that trainer/jockey pairing whilst clicking on the entry will open the race in a new tab.

HINT: Look for a good sample size – ideally five or more – combined with a decent win percentage (30%+), and a positive figure in the profit column and as ever, please refer to our User Guide for further information.

My own settings for the TJC Report look like this...

...and they have generated the following qualifiers for me to consider...

...30-day form...

...and 1-year form...

...whilst I can also call upon our selection of daily 'free' races...

• 1.35 Navan
• 1.55 Newbury
• 3.48 Navan
• 4.00 Kelso
• 4.15 Doncaster

...and with a top class contest on the 'free' list, I'm going to look at the 1.55 Newbury, also known as the Greatwood Gold Cup, a 9-runner, Class 1, 5yo+ handicap chase over a left-handed 2m4f on heavy ground...

Not only is joint bottom-weight Highstakesplayer our only LTO winner, he has also won his last three and five of his last six, finishing as runner-up in the defeat. I should however point out that those six runs were 2 x Class 5, then 3 x Class 4 before a Class 3 last time out, so he's no shoo-in here. Elsewhere all his rivals have won at least once in their last seven outings (Bill Baxter & Gemirande twice, Jetoile Grandeur Dame & Heltenham 3 times) with Gustavian's six consecutive defeats the coldest run of form on show.

So we know that in-form Highstakesplayer is up two classes here and so is Sir Psycho, whilst out of form Gustavian steps up one class, as does Heltenham who was a runner-up just a week ago. On reflection, I suppose Jetoile's recent 4th place in a Cheltenham Class 1 is the best recent run of this field, especially as he won the Grade 2 Old Roan at Aintree on his penultimate start.

All bar Gemirande have raced in the last 5 weeks, but he hasn't been seen for over ten months now and although he was 2nd past the post (placed 3rd after the stewards got involved) in a Cheltenham Grade 2 last time out, it's not inconceivable that he might need the run here, but like all bar Sir Psycho, he has already won over this trip. Only Kandoo Kid and Heltenham have won here at Newbury before (Jetoile & Gemirande are the only others to have raced here, mind) and both have won over course and distance...

Sadly, we don't glean a great deal from the win stats on Instant Expert above, but what I did spot was that Heltenham, Gemirande, Grandeur D'ame, Sir Psycho and Kandoo kid are 7 to 11lbs higher than their last winning marks, despite not coming here in great form, so that has to be a worry for their chances. The win stats did show that plenty of these will 'get' the trip readily enough but that the field lacks experience at going, class and course.

On the other hand, the place stats suggest that a few of these should relish the conditions with Jetoile, Gemirande and Heltenham showing green in four of the five categories. If the field approaches this race as they have done in their last few outings, then those three I mentioned from Instant Expert might not see too much of each other...

...with Gemirande a proven front-runner and Heltenham tending to bide his time. Jetoile normally runs in mid-division, whilst Gemirande's biggest challenge for an early lead is likely to come from Sir Psycho or Grandeur D'ame. The stats for similar past races would tend to suggest that Heltenham will be at a disadvantage if he's held up for a third race in a row...

...and that he should revert to racing further forward as he did three and four races back, when making the frame on both occasions, winning once.

Summary

There's no standout performer here, aside from Highstakesplayer's recent set of results, but that was all at a lower level than this. I suspect confidence will be high, though and that he'll probably still manage to beat most of this field. I've not got him marked as a winner, but if the odds are reasonable enough, he'd be an E/W option, as would Heltenham who is a proven placer at the trip as long as he doesn't become detached at the rear and that's the gamble with him, I suppose. he's low in the weights and has won over course and distance and I fancy him to make a good fist of this.

My preference, however, is Jetoile, who won back to back Chepstow contests last year before landing the grade 2 Old Roan at Aintree in October. He was a decent fourth after a three month break last time out, he's 3 from 3 over 2m4f and his form on soft/heavy ground reads 12321, so let's check the market at 5.15pm Friday...

Highstakesplayer is too short to back E/W for me, but I'd be happy to take 8/1 E/W about Heltenham. As for Jetoile, I think he has what it takes to win here, but 10/1 is very good when IO was expecting around 7's, so whilst I'm backing him, I might well hedge my bets.

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