Racing Insights, Monday 06/02/23
Monday’s free feature of the day is the pace tab for all races. This is available to all free registered users of Geegeez and gives huge insight into which runners might be most or least disadvantaged by their early positions in each race.
The free races of the day on Monday are...
- 2.30 Fontwell
- 3.00 Fontwell
- 5.30 Wolverhampton
...but none of them really appeal to me, so I decided to have a quick look at the pace graphic for every race on Monday and the one with the biggest spread was this...
...from the 7.30 Wolverhampton, a 7-runner, Class 6, 3yo A/W handicap over a left-handed 1m1½f on standard tapeta. Here's the card...
Top-weight Mint Edition is the form horse here and comes seeking a hat-trick, whilst Gilded Moon is the only other with a recent win and none of Mint Edition's rivals even made the frame LTO.
Those two recent winners above are the only two not moving in class, as four (Sprezzatura, Grand Central, Fox Flame and bottom-weight Ski Jump) all drop from Class 5, whilst Quizlet raced at Class 4 LTO.
Ski Jump makes just a second handicap run and wears first-time cheekpieces whilst both Quizlet and Fox Flame make handicap debuts in a field rated 16lbs different from top to bottom. As for the field's last run, two (Mint Edition & Grand Central) have been quickly sent back out after 3 & 6 days rest respectively, three (Sprezzatura, Gilded Moon & Ski Jump) return from a short break of a fortnight or slightly longer, but both handicap debutants have been off for three months or more and might need a run.
None of these have won at either track nor trip. Mind you, only two of these have won a race before, so we'll probably need to concentrate on the second (places) of these two Instant Expert graphics...
...where it seems that those yet to win, don't even make the frame either!
So let's go back to that pace graphic we started with also add in the recent pace scores...
...and then compare that with past similar races here at Wolverhampton...
...where those racing furthest forward have the best record for win and place. Prominent runners make the frame as often as leaders but are only 73.5% as likely to win and the two I'd take from the pace chart would be Gilded Moon & Grand Central based on their last two outings, yet this pair are drawn apart in stalls 5 & 1 respectively, so who might have the best draw, if there is any advantage to be gained?
Our draw stats from those 120-odd races above say that a mid to high draw works best...
...with stalls 3 to 5 possibly the best place to be...
...which might be good news for Mint Edition, Ski Jump & Gilded Moon, whilst the pace draw heatmap...
...might look a little like this when we superimpose our field's draw and recent pace scores...
...where despite the difference in the draw, our two pace 'standouts' Grand Central & Gilded Moon look best placed on the combo.
Summary
Not a great race if truth be told, but I picked it purely to highlight the differing pace approaches taken in a race. I quickly assessed the field for form, race suitability, pace and draw and these were the ones that interested me most...
Form : Mint Edition & Gilded Moon
Instant Expert : Mint Edition & Gilded Moon
Pace : Gilded Moon & Grand Central
Draw : Mint Edition, Ski Jump & Gilded Moon
Pace/Draw : Grand Central & Gilded Moon
It's a fairly simplistic approach I've taken, of course, but of 11 names above Mint Edition is three of them and Gilded Moon is five, so they're the two I'm interested in now.
For me, Mint Edition should be winning this all day long and actually beat Gilded Moon by 6½ lengths on the latter's last outing 17 days ago. Gilded Moon is now 8lbs better, giving the filly a better chance of getting close, but a runner-up spot is surely the best she can hope for.
At the time I wrote this, only Hills had opened a book and they were putting Mint Edition up as an even money favourite and whilst I'm not into backing shorties, those of you who do might want to consider this one, as there could well still be some value in that price.
The beauty of a short-priced fav is that you can often get a decent E/W bet from it and the 10/1 about Gilded Moon might either be a little generous or a wasted stake. I think she's better than 10/1, whether she succeeds or not.
Other Recent Posts by This Author:
- Tix Picks, Tuesday 15/10/24
- Tix Picks, Monday 14/10/24
- Tix Picks, Saturday 12/10/24
- Tix Picks, Friday 11/10/24
- Tix Picks, Thursday 10/10/24
