Saturday's free feature is the Trainer/Jockey Combo (TJC) report, which works by bringing together the form of trainers and jockeys into a single composite report that has produced excellent results for users. Basically, some trainers turn to specific riders when they have one ‘ready to win’ and this report quickly identifies the most profitable of those combinations. Clicking on any row will reveal the entries for that trainer/jockey pairing whilst clicking on the entry will open the race in a new tab.
HINT: Look for a good sample size – ideally five or more – combined with a decent win percentage (30%+), and a positive figure in the profit column and as ever, please refer to our User Guide for further information.
My own settings for the TJC Report look like this...
...but they have generated no runners for me to look at, so it's a good job we have a list of fully functional 'free' racecards each day, which for Saturday cover...
- 12.10 Lingfield
- 1.55 Leopardstown
- 2.20 Sandown
- 3.16 Musselburgh
- 5.30 Kempton
...from which, I'm going to look at the 3.16 Musselburgh, a 10-runner, Class 2, 4yo+ handicap hurdle on good to soft ground. They'll go right handed for just over 1m7½f and here's the card...
Nayati and Lebowski both won last time out and have both won three of their last five runs, as indeed has Parisencore. Inca Prince has a couple of wins in his recent formline, whilst only Band of Outlaws and Kihavah are winless in five (7 & 8 to be precise!)
The afore-mentioned Parisencore last raced in Class 1 handciap and drops down a level to run here, whilst both Lebowski & Grivetana step up a level with out of form Kihavah up two classes from an A/W run, but is only one class higher than his last hurdles effort and after having failed to complete his last two hurdles races (FP) he now wears cheekpieces for the first time.
Despite his current poor form, Kihavahis one of five to have won over course and distance, along with Nayati, Inca Prince, Collingham and Socialist Agenda. The other five runners have all also won over a similar trip elsewhere, but none have scored here at Musselburgh.
Lebowski has been off the track for nine weeks, Parisencore for ten weeks and Inca Prince for nineteen weeks, so they might be a little rusty, but their seven rivals have all raced in the last five weeks with top-weight Camprond out as recently as last Saturday in a poor show at Cheltenham. He's also one of four (along with Band of Outlaws, Grivetana & Socialist Agenda) yet to win a NH race on good to soft ground, whilst Band Of Outlaws & Collingham are the only ones to have tackled Class 2 racing without winning, according to Instant Expert...
...where the ones making most appeal to me are Nayati, Lebowski, Inca Prince and Parisencore. Kivavah has some good numbers but is in wretched form, whilst last year's winner of this race, Socialist Agenda has also struggled of late and was only 6th of 10 here over course and distance on New Year's Day, some 15 and 13 lengths behind the first two home, the re-opposing Donald McCain trained duo Nayati and Collingham. Nayati is 313161 from his last six (so he probably wins his next one after this!) from a hold up position and based on how the field have positioned themselves in recent outings, he might have company at the rear of the field from Kivavah and possibly his stablemate Collingham...
Nayati's win from the back here last time out is more of an exception to the rule, as those setting the pace normally come out on top, but stats like these...
...won't concern the McCain yard, now they know it's difficult but not impossible.
Summary
Nayati ticks all boxes for me here, bar the pace profiling. He's in great form (3 wins and 2 places from 6), he's a course and distance winner only up 3lbs and he has a whole line of green on Instant Expert. The horses that finished third and fifth behind him and Collingham here on New Year's Day have both re-appeared and won, franking the form of that race and I'm happy to overlook his apparent poor pace profile. He has all his recent form from a hold up position and it did him no harm last time around, so he's the one to beat in my eyes.
Nayati is currently as big as 6/1 with both Coral & Ladbrokes and I think that might be generous as I expected him to be maybe a couple of points shorter. Stablemate Collingham is 3lbs better off with Nayati and could also run a big race, although 15/2 would be borderline in my opinion about an E/W bet. Lebowski is sure to be involved and his 4/1 ticket is about what I expected.
The two I though might have an outside squeak of being E/W picks were Parisencore & Inca Prince. They both scored well on Instant Expert and are likely to be setting the pace, so it's not inconceivable that one (or both!) might hang on for a place. Parisencore was going really well until stepped up to Class 1 last time out, so a drop in class and weight might revitalise him and 9/1 isn't a bad price, but the market isn't keen on Inca Prince, who can be had as big as 20/1. He had a good winter last year but his summer/autumn form left a fair bit to be desired and it's a case of which version turns up here. He's had 19 weeks off and I've a feeling that he'll either bounce back of just flop here, no inbetweens : the 20/1 gamble is whether he bounces or not. If it helps, Sky go 4 places 😉
Other Recent Posts by This Author:
- Tix Picks, Saturday 04/01/25
- Tix Picks, Friday 03/01/25
- Tix Picks, Thursday 02/01/25
- Tix Picks, Tuesday 31/12/24
- Tix Picks, Monday 30/12/24
