Racing Insights, Monday 12/08/24

The pace tab on our racecards helps to make a reasoned assumption based upon a field's most recent runs as to how their next race might unfold. This information is vastly under-used by UK bettors, but we feel it's that important that we make this info totally free for all races every Sunday & Monday.

This, of course, includes our daily free races, which for Monday are...

• 2.45 Kempton
• 3.20 Kempton
• 4.10 Ayr
• 7.53 Ballinrobe

...from which I'm going to look at the 4.10 Ayr, a 13-runner, Class 6, 3yo+ flat handicap over a left-handed 7f on good ground...

As is often the case with these Class 6 handicaps, many of the runners have low win strike rates and three of this field (Colour Code, Agnes Grey and Angel of the Bay are a combined 0 from 28 after failing to win any of their 8, 12 and 8 starts respectively.

Following on from this, none of the field managed to win last time out, but Novak and Sir Garfield were runners-up, the latter failing by just a head over this track and trip as recently as Saturday, when the re-opposing Braes of Doune was third, just a further neck behind.

None of the other ten made the frame on their last outing and only Monhammer, Jkr Cobbler, Ahamoment, Sir Garfield, Banner Road and the in-form (8 top 3 finishes from his last 10 races) Braes of Doune have managed a win in their last seven races.

Angel of the Bay and Sir Garfield are still 3 yr olds, so they receive a handy 6lb allowance here and the latter also drops down a class today, as do five others (Trais Fluors, Jkr Cobbler, Ahamoment, Colour Code and bottom weight Braes of Doune), whilst Monhammer and Banner Road both drop in from Class 4.

Sir Garfield had Braes of Doune a neck behind him on Saturday and Colour Code also ran in the same race, but was last home of ten, beaten by almost fourteen lengths, so all three have a quick turnaround, but the entire field have had at least one run in the last seven weeks.

Five of the field (Novak, Monhammer, Jkr Cobbler, Ahamoment & Black Friday) have won over course and distance whilst Banner Road and Braes of Doune have both won here at Ayr over a mile and 1m2f respectively; Sir Garfield won over this trip at Catterick.

The two-year win stats on Instant Expert aren't the best, but Novak, Monhammer, Jkr Cobbler and Ahamoment seem to be the headliners...

...although with so much red around and many runners with low win returns, we're going to need to look at the place stats...

...an they paint a much rosier picture, but I need to whittle this field down now and the way I've decided to go is stick with runners with at least three blocks of green from the first four (going, class, course and distance) columns, although I did let Monhammer sneak in with 2 green and 2 amber...

My runners are strung across the stalls from 4 to 13 (Darbucks will run from 13, not 14 after a non-runner), so I was hoping there's not too much of a draw bias, so I've still got plenty of choices. The draw data suggests that stalls 3 to 7 might be the best places to be berthed from a win perspective, although stalls 8 and above have better place records...

Monday's free feature is pace and those races above have tended to be dominated by front runners...

...whilst our pace/draw heat map identifies the optimum combination for this race, ie a front-runner from stalls 5 to 9...

...and if we check this field's last few races...

...Sir Garfield probably comes closest to filling that brief.

Summary

Sir Garfield had the best last run, scored well on IE and is probably the closest to the ideal draw/pace make-up, so he's in my top three. And if he's in then the in-form Braes of Doune also needs to be in, as they're so closely matched and Braes rarely fails to make the frame and my third runner would be Novak. His last run was his best for some considerable time, he's now 9lbs below his last winning mark and also scored really well on Instant Expert.

So, they're my three against the field. I'd no odds to hand at 4pm Sunday, but I suspect all three will be towards the top of the market and I doubt any will be an E/W price. Sir garfield is the most likely to win, but Novak will offer the best value.

Other Recent Posts by This Author:

• Tix Picks, Saturday 04/01/25
• Tix Picks, Friday 03/01/25
• Tix Picks, Thursday 02/01/25
• Tix Picks, Tuesday 31/12/24
• Tix Picks, Monday 30/12/24