Racing Insights, Saturday 15/06/24

Saturday's free feature is the Trainer/Jockey Combo (TJC) report, which works by bringing together the form of trainers and jockeys into a single composite report that has produced excellent results for users. Basically, some trainers turn to specific riders when they have one ‘ready to win’ and this report quickly identifies the most profitable of those combinations. Clicking on any row will reveal the entries for that trainer/jockey pairing whilst clicking on the entry will open the race in a new tab.

HINT: Look for a good sample size – ideally five or more – combined with a decent win percentage (30%+), and a positive figure in the profit column and as ever, please refer to our User Guide for further information.

My own settings for the TJC Report look like this...

...and they have generated the following set of runners...

14-day form...

30-day form...

and 5-year course form...

...which in addition to our selection of daily 'free' races...

• 1.30 Sandown
• 2.05 Sandown
• 4.52 Hexham
• 5.04 Chester
• 5.20 York
• 6.18 Leicester

...gives me a grand total of ten races to consider, the highest-rated of which is the 2.05 Sandown, but 16-runner handicaps really aren't my thing, so next best is the race before that one, the 1.30 Sandown, a 9-runner, Class 3, 3yo flat handicap over a right-handed 1m1f on good to firm ground...

Sole female in the race, Crystal Flyer was a winner last time out, as was bottom weight Prince Eric who completed a 53-day hat-trick albeit all over a mile on the A/W. Mafnood, Jayyash and Von Baer all finished third on their last outing, but the latter is a five-race maiden, whilst the rest of the field have all won at least once in their last six outings or less.

Von Baer has also been gelded during the seven-week break since his last run, whilst Mafnood wears first-time blinkers and both Break The Bank and Jayyash are visored for the first time here.

Only Mafnood, Jayyash and Von Baer raced at Class 3 last time out as Brioni, Crystal Flyer and Into Battle all drop down from Class 2 with Mr Monaco and Break The Bank stepping up from Class 4, whilst Prince Eric’s recent hat-trick was all at Class 5 on the A/W and he may find Class 3 turf action a tad more difficult.

Today will be handicap debut day for Crystal Flyer, whilst Mr Monaco and Into Battle have both only had one previous handicap outing, but the latter is the only runner in this fried to have won over a similar trip to this one and we’ve no previous course winners, according to Instant Expert, which initially doesn't give us much to work with...

...but a slight relaxing of the parameters proves more helpful...

...with most of the field having at lest one win and Prince Eric / Into Battle excelling at the trip, but a lack of wins doesn't always mean a horse has run poorly as the place stats below show...

...where Brioni looks like enjoying the conditions along with Mafnood. They both have three greens from going/class/course and distance, whilst Crystal Flyer and Into Battle have two greens, but I should stress that the sample sizes are so small that I wouldn't lean too heavily on these numbers.

The draw, however, might well have an important role to play and if we spilt the stalls into thirds, it looks like those drawn highest have a distinct advantage...

...although closer inspection of the stall by stall data would suggest that this advantage starts around halfway along the stalls in box 5...

If we then look at how those races above were won, it's a bit of a mixed bag if truth be told with no real clear benefit from any particular running style from a win perspective, although the further forward a horse has raced, the greater the chance of making the frame...

We can now also look at how the draw interacts with the pace and this is interesting and offers confirmation, because we've already said that higher drawn runners fare well and leaders go well from a place perspective, so this graphic shouldn't be a surprise...

...but it also suggests that five of the nine pace/draw combos all have a similar success rate, suggesting that there's no clearcut perfect profile and if we look at how this field has tended to run of late...

...which suggests that Brioni and Into Battle (possibly Von Baer) are the likely pace makers, whilst Mafnood downwards have the pick of the draw. Crystal Flyer had a change of tactic last time out and this proved successful, so she might be ridden the same way again and if so from stall 6, she may just about edge it on pace/draw.

Summary

This looks a pretty open contest and I think I could make a case for most of these, but the one that interests me most right now (5.15pm Friday) is the 13/2 Crystal Flyer. It's a bit of a gamble that she races up with the pace like last time, but that is reflected in the odds. She won quite cosily last time out, but drops in class here and her runner-up has won since won, so 13/2 might be generous here.

As for an E/W option, only Brioni (10/1), Break The Bank (10/1) and Von Baer (14/1) are at what I'd deem E/W odds and if pushed to put one forward, I'd side with Brioni who drops in class after a disappointing run last time ended a sequence of hime having one win and three further places from his first four career outings.

Other Recent Posts by This Author:

• Tix Picks, Tuesday 10/12/24
• Tix Picks, Monday 09/12/24
• Tix Picks, Saturday 07/12/24
• Tix Picks, Friday 06/12/24
• Tix Picks, Thursday 05/12/24