Racing Insights

Racing Insights, Monday 20/11/23

The pace tab on our racecards helps to make a reasoned assumption based upon a field's most recent runs as to how their next race might unfold. This information is vastly under-used by UK bettors, but we feel it's that important that we make this info totally free for all races every Sunday & Monday.

This, of course, includes our daily free races, which for Monday are...

  • 12.30 Plumpton
  • 3.20 Plumpton
  • 4.30 Kempton
  • 6.00 Kempton

The 'best' of those races would appear to be the 3.20 Plumpton, a 6-runner, Class 4, 4yo+ handicap chase over a left-handed 2m1f on good to soft/soft ground...

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NO RISK WITH LOU won on his hurdles debut a year ago and then also won on his chase debut at Huntingdon last time out, making virtually all on his way to a 7-lengfth success five weeks ago. Up 8lbs for the win, but should go well again.

RED WINDSOR made the frame in three (won once) of his five hurdles outings, but looked like he needed the run when last of 4 (85 lengths adrift) on chasing debut six weeks ago. He jumped well enough but just seemed to run out of steam.

GITCHE GUMEE won a bumper on debut in March '22 and then won next time out on hurdles debut some seven months later. Aside from a fall at Southwell two starts ago, has hurdled well in five subsequent runs and now makes a chasing & handicap debut seven months after his last outing.

KOTMASK started his career with back to back wins over hurdles (one at Class 2) and last season's hurdle form read 4322. Made a chasing debut at Kempton four weeks ago and defied a seven month layoff to finish third, beaten by less than seven lengths and should improve for the experience and for having had a run.

BONARC has yet to make the frame in five efforts over fences and has lost his last ten races in total since a win at Kilbeggan 18 months ago. His last run run saw him finish last of four at Sligo, some 47 lengths adrift and others look better placed here.

AVILES has been a runner-up in all five UK starts to date, including today (Sunday) at Fontwell, which puts his participation here in doubt, but having only gone down by a nose on chasing debut today, could be dangerous off a lowly mark of just 104.

All bar Aviles (obviously) and Red Windsor have scored over this type of trip in the UK, but we've no former course winners, according to Instant Expert...

...which suggests that Bonarc might well be all at sea on the going and at this grade, whilst his record at the trip is no better, so I'm happy to rule him out of contention right away. Elsewhere, we've admittedly not much data to work with, but Kotmask does at least seem like he'll relish the softness of the turf and that thought is backed up by his place data...

...which also highlights Aviles' continued door-knocking.

Pace is Monday's free feature and a quick click of the PACE tab for this race brings us to a screen like this...

...which suggests that Red Windsor will set the pace and Bonarc will be held up and if we consult our Pace Analyser for similar past races...

...we see that those racing further forward fare best, but leaders find themselves prone to being picked up by the stalking prominent runner late on. This looks better news for Aviles & No Risk With Lou than the others.


I don't like Bonarc at all, Gitche Gumme makes a handicap/chasing debut after a long layoff and pace-setter Red Windsor has a tendency to fade late on, so I'm against these three.

No Risk With Lou was very impressive on chase debut last time out and there's probably more to come from him, he fits the pace profile well and should put a decent effort in here, even if Instant Expert is against him. Kotmask was the pick on Instant Expert and was in good hurdling form last season. He has had the benefit of a recent pipe-opener over fences and should go well again, but the pace stats are against him, whilst Aviles is ultra-consistent (five runner-up finishes on the bonce) but always finds one too good for him.

None of the trip are a shoo-in, but 9/4 fav No Risk With Lou probably shades it based on his winning run last time out with little to separate the other pair, providing Aviles runs, that is.

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