Racing Insights, Saturday 18/11/23
Saturday's free feature is the Trainer/Jockey Combo (TJC) report, which works by bringing together the form of trainers and jockeys into a single composite report that has produced excellent results for users. Basically, some trainers turn to specific riders when they have one ‘ready to win’ and this report quickly identifies the most profitable of those combinations. Clicking on any row will reveal the entries for that trainer/jockey pairing whilst clicking on the entry will open the race in a new tab.
HINT: Look for a good sample size – ideally five or more – combined with a decent win percentage (30%+), and a positive figure in the profit column and as ever, please refer to our User Guide for further information.
My own settings for the TJC Report look like this...
...and they have generated the following runners for me to check out...
...plus as ever, we have a list of fully functional 'free' racecards each day, which for Saturday cover...
- 12.35 Cheltenham
- 1.19 Wetherby
- 2.01 Lingfield
- 2.12 Uttoxeter
- 2.29 Wetherby
- 4.30 Wolverhampton
And with the weather in mind, I'm playing it relatively safe by heading for the A/W (whilst my wife goes to Uttoxeter!) and 2.01 Lingfield, a 9-runner, Class 3, 3yo+ A/W handicap over a left-handed 1m2f on standard polytrack...
Top weight Greatgadian is our sole LTO winner, but Regheeb is two from three in the UK and Udaberri was a runner-up 16 days ago. Udaberri, however, is one of just two (along with Throne Hall) without a win in seven or more outings and he's up two classes here which probably won't help to improve his 0/12 record on the A/W!
Top-weight and LTO winner Greatgadian is up one class, as is Citizen General but Storm Catcher, Forca Timao and Thundering all drop down from Class 2. This will be Regheeb's second run in a handicap and his first outing since being gelded, whilst Expressionless wears cheekpieces for the second time.
Thundering was last seen seven weeks ago and Citizen General has had 12 weeks off, but the rest of the pack have raced in the past five weeks with five of them seen this month already.
Despite his inexperience, Regheeb has already won over course and distance and Citizen General won here over 1m5f back in May, whilst Greatgadian, Storm Catcher, Throne Hall and Thundering have all won over similar trips elsewhere as documented by Instant Expert which suggests the lower half of the draw is stronger or better suited than the higher half...
The only cause for concern above might be the apparent 13lbs difference between Citizen General's mark of 88 as opposed to his victory off 75 here in May, but he has since won off 80 on turf, so whilst he still needs a career best effort to win here, the gulf isn't quite as large. The subsequent place stats make Udaberri's form a little more appealing, but I'm already doubting his chances here...
As you've probably guessed, Expressionless makes an A/W debut after eight mainly soft/heavy ground outings on turf where he has two wins and a place after landing back to back soft ground 1m½f contests in April this year.
Our Draw Analyser says that there shouldn't be too much of a bias at play here, but if any stall are more favourable than others, then the first four stalls are the place to be and with the lower draws having the best of it from Instant Expert, that might be the place to focus upon...
And whilst there might no be much in the draw, that's certainly not the case with pace/tempo/tactics, as our Pace Analyser clearly suggests that those racing prominently or leading fare best here...
...with the low drawn prominent/leading runners enjoying the most success...
If we then look at how this field have approached their most recent races...
...you'd suspect the early pace is going to come from one or more of Throne Hall, Forca Timao, Regheeb or Citizen General and they take their places on the heat map as follows...
...assuming, of course, they run how they have tended to of late.
From the heat map alone, Regheeb is the one who interests me most, especially if he allows Throne hall to do the running and he just sits in behind.
Summary
I think I want to be amongst those drawn lowest and they have the best Instant Expert scores and with pace in mind, the one I'm looking at is Regheeb at 7/2 (Bet365). He's drawn low, has the ideal pace profile, he's lightly raced but has won 2 of his 3 UK starts, including a course and distance success at this grade back in September.
Greatgadian is the 9/4 or 5/2 fav here and he ticks plenty of boxes, but his lack of early pace might cost him the race. This lack of pace throughout the field might lead to an unfancied runner nicking some of the place money and if that happens, then the 11/1 Forca Timao might well be able to take advantage from out wide.
Other Recent Posts by This Author:
- Tix Picks, Saturday 04/01/25
- Tix Picks, Friday 03/01/25
- Tix Picks, Thursday 02/01/25
- Tix Picks, Tuesday 31/12/24
- Tix Picks, Monday 30/12/24
