Racing Insights

Racing Insights, Monday 22/01/24

Monday’s free feature of the day is full access to the pace tab for all races. This is available to all free registered users of Geegeez and gives huge insight into which runners might be most or least disadvantaged by their early positions in each race.

The free races of the day on Monday are...

  • 1.30 Kempton
  • 1.35 Warwick
  • 3.00 Kempton
  • 3.55 Plumpton

If I'm honest, none of those four races (a 4-runner race, a mares novice hurdle, a Class 5 maiden and a Class 5 hurdle) really grab my attention. Monday racing is generally quite poor, so I'm usually quite selective about what kind of races I get involved with and wouldn't really touch those above.

So, it  should goodbye until tomorrow from me, but the show must and does go on. Therefore, I'm going to look elsewhere and tackle the day's richest and joint highest-rated race, the 2.45 Plumpton, a 9-runner, Class 3, 5yo+ handicap chase over what is effectively a left-handed 3m 2.63f (3m 1f 152yds, plus 207yds rail movement) on good ground that is currently softer in places and with showers expected, it will probably stay that way. Here's the card...

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None of these won last time out and only Fidux (a 2.25 length runner-up) made the frame, whilst Only The Bold, Cyclop, Blade Runner and Northern Poet were all pulled up. In fact the first three named of those four pulled up, were also pulled up in their penultimate runs too. That said Blade Runner is 2 from 4, 3 from 7 and 5 from 10 and Northern Poet is 3 from 4 and Blade Runner is down two classes here, as are the joint top-weights Larry and Only the Bold.

Cyclop drops down a class here too, but Fidux now steps up from Class 4, although his 10lb claim jockey retains the ride. Tip Top Mountain and Northern Poet return from breaks of 11 weeks and 3 months respectively, as their rivals have all been out in the last five weeks or so.

Only The Bold, Lord Accord, Fidux and Jacamar are all yet to win here at Plumpton, mind you Jacamar's run here in April is the only time any of the four have been here. As for the trip, Larry, Fidux and Jacamar await their first wins over similar distances, but four of the field (Cyclop, Blade Runner, Northern Poet and Tip Top Mountain) have all won over course and distance...

Some respectable efforts on good/good to soft ground aside from Larry's 2 from 14 and all of those with three or more Class 3 runs have done well enough. Jacamar is the only one to have failed to win here of those who have raced on this track, whilst the trip looks too much for Fidux. He might only be 0 from 4 at similar distances, but the bigger picture is that he has 0 wins from 16 beyond 2m7f! Blade Runner

Pace is today's free feature and our pace analyser shows us this...

...suggesting that we'd be better off backing a horse who races prominently or leads, especially from a place perspective, but how will we know how they'll run until the race is actually underway? Well, we track how every horse runs in every race and the pace tab shows us their last four running styles, enabling us to make an informed decision (or educated guess!) as to what tactics they might employ and that data looks like this...

...where 4 =-led, 3 = raced prominently, 2 = ran in mid-field and 1 = was held-up. So we can quickly see that Tip Top Mountain likes to lead. Lord Accord, Fidux & Northern Poet look like prominent runners with Only The Bold and Blade Runner running in mid-division with Jacamar, Cyclop and Larry racing further back, somewhat like this...

Summary

Despite being pulled up last time out Blade Runner and Northern Poet have been in great form, as has bottom weight Tip Top Mountain, whilst the horses catching my eye on Instant Expert were Blade Runner, Northern Poet, Tip Top Mountain and Cyclop with Tip Top Mountain, Lord Accord, Fidux & Northern Poet the takeaways from the pace analysis.

Which from the data above points to Blade Runner, Northern Poet and Tip Top Mountain being the ones of most interest to me. Blade Runner has failed to complete his last two races but has plenty of recent wins in his form line, he loves it here at Plumpton and if he does run here (also declared at Lingfield on Sunday in a much tougher race), he's be my one to beat here at 11/2 with Hills.

I do think the other pair, Northern Poet and Tip Top Mountain will go well, but at 13/2 the former is just a bit short for an E/W bet for me, but I'm quite happy to have a small punt at 14's on Tip Top Mountain from an E/W perspective.

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