The pace tab on our racecards helps to make a reasoned assumption based upon a field's most recent runs as to how their next race might unfold. This information is vastly under-used by UK bettors, but we feel it's that important that we make this info totally free for all races every Sunday & Monday.
This, of course, includes our daily free races, which for Monday are...
- 2.05 Ayr
- 4.45 Ayr
- 6.30 Wolverhampton
It's a fairly poor day of racing if truth be told and the Wolverhampton race above is the highest rated on offer, being a Class 3 handicap but it only has four runners, so we'll have a look at the 2.05 Ayr instead. It's still a small field, but we've 6 runners contesting this Class 4, 5yo+ handicap chase over a left-handed 2m4½f on heavy ground...
It's a tight-looking affair and I think you could probably make a case for most of the following..
FIA FUINIDH is a front-runner who made all to win here in a two mile hurdle back in January 2023 and has since finished 4224 in four efforts over fences, but was disappointing in a 14-lengtrh defeat here over 2m½f a fortnight ago. That's the longest trip he's faced to date and is up half a mile here!
INDIAN LOUIS won a couple of point to point races, but ran modestly in a bumper and three hurdle races before winning over today's trip on his chase debut on New Year's Day, but his jumping was a little erratic here over course and distance next/last time out just 13 days ago, when beaten by 28 lengths. Has a chance based on his penultimate run but LTO was poor.
TRAVAIL D'ORFEVRE has finished in the first three home in each of his last seven over fences, but this consistency hasn't manifested itself into many wins, as he has landed just one of the seven and that was at Carlisle in October. Since then, his form reads 222 with the middle race of the three a two-length defeat here over course and distance.
JOLLY NELLERIE finished 212 in three hurdle outings in France before coming tot he UK, where it hasn't really happened for him yet. He was beaten by 19 lengths in a two-horse race on his UK debut 11 months ago and then finished 7th of 13 and 4th of 5 in two subsequent efforts before a 26 length defeat when 4th of 6 on chase debut just before Christmas. Like Fia Fuinidh, he hasn't been beyond 2m½f yet and is up half a mile, but it is hoped that first-time blinkers will help.
NIGHTS IN VENICE is a 15-race (3 x NHF, 11 x hrd & 1 x chs) maiden whose best run of form came a year when finishing 322 in consecutive races from mid-February to mid-April last year over trips of 3m½f to 3m1½f. His sole chase run was three weeks ago when a 6-length fourth of twelve at Chepstow again over 3m½f. He might well come on for having had that run, but he's up in class and well down in trip here.
ARDERA CROSS won here over 2m½f, two starts and eight weeks ago beating the re-opposing Fia Fuinidh by two lengths, but the runner-up is 2lbs better this time around. Ardera Cross has run once since that win and was very disappointing, finishing sixth of seven back over over 2m½f here. The 13 yr old veteran was beaten by some thirty-six lengths that day and will need some bounce back!
Yet, Instant Expert says that only Ardera Cross has any kind of liking for the conditions expected, especially the heavy ground...
...whilst Travail D'Orfevre seems to have the worst credentials from the win perspective but his regular top three finishes make for interesting reading...
...with Fia Fuinidh and Ardera Cross also worth a second look on those numbers. I said earlier that Fia Fuinidh likes to set the tempo of the race, but based on this field's last four outings, he might not have it all his own way, as when we click the PACE tab (today's free feature)...
...we see that only Nights In Venice is generally reluctant to get involved early doors, but a slow start here at Ayr will pretty much end his chances of making the frame, never mind winning! That is, of course, if last similar races here are any benchmark...
Summary
I think the consistent Travail D'orfevre (The Goldsmith's Work in French?) is the one to beat here. He rarely runs a bad race, he'll be up with the pace and unlike half the field, has raced at similar trips to this one before now. He's by no means a shoo-in and the 3.15pm Sunday price of 15/8 from Bet365 leaves little room for error/value, so I'll let you decide whether he's a bet or not. As for the others, only the 10/1 outsider and race veteran Ardera Cross is longer than 6/1 and he'd be the only I could even consider as an E/W pick based on prices and if he bounces back from a poor run LTO and goes like he did two starts back, we could be on for a payout.
All of which aside, the sensible (but boring!) play here would be to not play, as any of the six could win/make the frame/finish last!
Other Recent Posts by This Author:
- Tix Picks, Saturday 04/01/25
- Tix Picks, Friday 03/01/25
- Tix Picks, Thursday 02/01/25
- Tix Picks, Tuesday 31/12/24
- Tix Picks, Monday 30/12/24
