Racing Insights, Saturday 25/05/24

Saturday's free feature is the Trainer/Jockey Combo (TJC) report, which works by bringing together the form of trainers and jockeys into a single composite report that has produced excellent results for users. Basically, some trainers turn to specific riders when they have one ‘ready to win’ and this report quickly identifies the most profitable of those combinations. Clicking on any row will reveal the entries for that trainer/jockey pairing whilst clicking on the entry will open the race in a new tab.

HINT: Look for a good sample size – ideally five or more – combined with a decent win percentage (30%+), and a positive figure in the profit column and as ever, please refer to our User Guide for further information.

My own settings for the TJC Report look like this...

...and they have generated the following pair of combos for me to check out...

...plus as ever, we have a list of fully functional 'free' racecards each day, which for Saturday were due to cover..

• 1.20 Curragh
• 1.50 Haydock
• 3.35 Chester
• 3.45 Goodwood
• 4.05 Chester
• 5.35 Windsor

Normally, I'd be covering that Listed race from Goodwood, but up here in the North West we've something even better : the 1.50 Haydock, a 10-runner, Group 2 flat contest for 3yo+ horses over a straight 5f on soft ground...

Seven Questions and Equality both won last time out, but the latter is our only class mover, having raced in a Class 2 handicap at Musselburgh five weeks ago. Rogue Lightning was fifth in France after winning three on the bounce here in the UK. Makarova and Vadream are both winless in their last five.

No new headgear or equipment being used here, no yard debuts and just Equality moving in class. Quality Aussie sprinter Asfoora makes her UK debut today nine weeks after a ¾-length defeat at Group 1 and it's worth noting that she has won three (inc 1 x Gr2 and 1 x Gr3) of five soft ground races. She has won over this trip before, as have all her rivals, but only Equality (course and distance) and Kerdos (6f on debut) have won at Haydock already with Makarova and Live In The Dream sharing three defeats...

The going doesn't really look like an issue for any of these runners, even if two of them are yet to make the frame : three combined runs isn't a hugely reliable sample size, but Makarova and Vadream have had plenty attempts at Class 1 and haven't really impressed. Kerdos' win record over the trip is poor if truth be told and the ones I'd taske forward from Instant Expert are Live In the Dream, Seven Questions, Vadream (place potential?), Beautiful Diamond and Rogue Lightning along with Asfoora based on her overseas record.

So, I've omitted runners in stalls 1, 2, 4 and 5, so I'm hoping there's no low draw bias here or I'm staring at Live In The Dream from stall 3! Thankfully, runners in stalls 4 to 8 have fared beast in soft ground straight sprints here at Haydock over the years...

...with stalls 3 to 7 faring best for the places, which overall is especially good news for the likes of Seven Questions and Asfoora. They key to winning sprints here at Haydock, though, rests more on race tactics/positioning, as those horses prepared to take the race on early have tended to win most often...

...with leaders winning 21.05% of their races and non-leaders winning just 8.67% of theirs and there's a similar (45.61% vs 28.46%) story with the places, so we need to check how these horses normally run via the pace tab...

...and it looks like Live In The Dream will be the one to catch here.

Summary

Live In The Dream looks like he'll try to make all here, a tactic that served him really well when winning the Gr1 Nunthorpe last autumn. He ran well in the Breeders Cup last year and was third in this race last time around and he'd be the one to beat in my book. He was a 4/1 shot at 5.45pm on Friday and whilst that's not generous, I'd say it was fair.

In opposition, I do like the look of the Aussie raider Asfoora, a dual-Group race winner on soft ground, who comes here as a bit of an unknown quantity, I suppose, whilst Seven Questions is drawn well, is in good form and will be up with the pace, so should be in the mix. Asfoora and Seven Questions currently trade at 5/1 and 16/1 respectively, so a small E/W play on the latter might be the ticket here.

Enjoy the Bank Holiday, I'll be back next week.

Other Recent Posts by This Author:

• Tix Picks, Saturday 04/01/25
• Tix Picks, Friday 03/01/25
• Tix Picks, Thursday 02/01/25
• Tix Picks, Tuesday 31/12/24
• Tix Picks, Monday 30/12/24