Racing Insights, Saturday 26/08/23 geegeez.co.uk

Saturday's free feature is the Trainer/Jockey Combo (TJC) report, which works by bringing together the form of trainers and jockeys into a single composite report that has produced excellent results for users. Basically, some trainers turn to specific riders when they have one ‘ready to win’ and this report quickly identifies the most profitable of those combinations. Clicking on any row will reveal the entries for that trainer/jockey pairing whilst clicking on the entry will open the race in a new tab.

HINT: Look for a good sample size – ideally five or more – combined with a decent win percentage (30%+), and a positive figure in the profit column and as ever, please refer to our User Guide for further information.

My own settings for the TJC Report look like this...

...and they have generated qualifiers as follows...

30-day form...

1-year form...

and course 1-year form...

...for me to consider in addition to our selection of daily 'free' races...

3.00 York
4.32 Newmarket
5.10 Curragh
5.20 York
5.55 Killarney
7.50 Windsor

...and of all the races listed above, the first of the free list is the highest-rated, so let's have a look at the 3.00 York, an 11-runner, Group 2. 3yo+ flat contest over a left-handed 7f on good to firm ground which is good in places. They've been watering and showers are expected, so it should remain slightly slower than good to firm for this group...

I'll start by saying that Kinross is likely to be a warm favourite here after beating Isaac Shelby in the Lennox Stakes at the start of the month and he, his trainer and his jockey also combined to win this race last year. His short price should, however open the door for a reasonably-priced placer or two, so let's dive in...

Surprisingly for a race of this magnitude, Kinross is the only one coming here off the back of a win, although Isaac Shelby was only a neck behind him in second (Audience was last of six 4.5 lengths back), whilst Jumby and Sacred were also runners-up on their last runs at Gr3 and Gr1 respectively.

That Lennox Stakes race featuring three of today's field was 25 days ago and only Pogo of this field has raced since that day, when a disappointing last of nine in the Hungerford Stakes last Saturday. The rest of this field were last seen 8 to 10 weeks ago, so all should be refreshed for the task in hand, where Sandrine wears a visor for the first time.

She's one of three (along with Sacred and Olivia Maralda) who'll get a 3lb mares' allowance here, whilst we have a trio of 3 yr olds (Covey, Isaac Shelby and Olivia Maralda again) who receive a 5lbs age allowance, meaning of course, that the 3yo filly Olivia Maralda is getting 8lbs from more than half of the field.

All eleven have won over today's trip, as you'd expect, but only Kinross and Pogo have won here at York; Kinross won this race over course and distance last year, of course, on his sole previous trip to the Knavesmire, whilst Pogo won a 1m, Class 2 handicap at this meeting four years ago. This pair of course wins is highlighted in Instant Expert...

I suspect the ground will be too quick for Sandrine, who is 1 from 8 on good to firm, but 3 from 5 on slower ground/AW. whilst Mutasaabeq is 4 from 8 on good ground and 2 from 3 on soft/heavy, so he'd probably want rain here. As expected, there's a whole stack of Class 1 wins for this bunch whilst Sacred (8 from 13), Kinross (9 from 15) and Isaac Shelby (3 from 5) have made the frame in 60% or more of their Class 1 outings to date.

The eleven runners have just 12 previous York runs between them, winning twice, although Pogo and Sandrine have both made the frame twice and Sacred was the runner-up in the Gr2 Lowther Stakes here three years ago. The trip should hold no fears for any of these with all eleven having a place strike rate of 50% or more (Kinross has made the frame in 8 of 9 at 7f!).

I don't expect the draw to have too much of an effect here, even if the bare stats suggest that those drawn centrally should have an advantage...

...because the PRB3 data suggests that Stall 5 (Al Suhail today) has fared the worst, despite it being deemed a mid-draw...

And if I'm right in assuming that one set of data cancels the other out and negates the effect of the draw, then it must mean that race tempo/positioning (aka pace) is more key to success here and those races above has been won as follows...

...which doesn't look good for leaders, who seem to get swamped later on by the stalkers. Hold-up horses make the frame most often, so if you're on a hold-up type with a jockey who is a good judge of pace, you could be quids in, but I think the key here is not to be the target up front. If we look at this field's last few outings, those pace stats might not be good news for the likes of Covey, Audience, Mutasaabeq and possibly Al Suhail/Isaac Shelby...

..but those from Kinross downwards on that chart will have enhanced chances of making the frame, assuming they're good enough, of course!

Summary

It's hard to get away from Kinross here. He's currently best priced at 7/4 with Hills and although I'm not a fan of backing shorties, that price might still actually hold some value.

He was second in last year's Lennox before winning this race, which he followed up with another Gr2 success before winning a Group 1 on Champions Day at Ascot in October. He probably needed the run when seventh in the Jubilee Stakes back at Ascot this June after more than eight months off, but in two runs since has finished third in the Gr1 July Cup and has won the Gr2 Lennox.

Isaac Shelby ran him relatively close last time out, although the winner did seem to have more in the tank and a similar run from the best of the three year olds puts him in with a good shout of making the frame again and as he's currently 7/1 and drifting, he'd be my E/W pick, especially if he drifts with either Skybet or Paddy Power who are paying four places.

Sacred might well beat Isaac Shelby here, as long as Tom Marquand times the later run correctly. This 5yr old mare has finished 1212 in her last four and was only beaten by a neck in the Queen Elizabeth II Jubilee Stakes last time out. the quality of that run is sadly quantified by her current 4/1 odds, which are too low for my liking as an E/W bet, but she's a real contender for at least a place here.

Not many others are screaming 'back me!' here, though, but if I was tempted to place a longer-priced E/W bet in the hope of a top four finish, then the 3yo filly Olivia Maralda might fit the bill at odds currently ranging from 10/1 to 12/1. She's getting 8lbs from most of her rivals, runs well from off the pace (ideal tactics here), she likes the quicker ground and her yard is in decent form.

Membership Login

Summary

Other Recent Posts by This Author:

You might also like