Racing Insights, Saturday 09/09/23

Saturday's free feature is the Trainer/Jockey Combo (TJC) report, which works by bringing together the form of trainers and jockeys into a single composite report that has produced excellent results for users. Basically, some trainers turn to specific riders when they have one ‘ready to win’ and this report quickly identifies the most profitable of those combinations. Clicking on any row will reveal the entries for that trainer/jockey pairing whilst clicking on the entry will open the race in a new tab.

HINT: Look for a good sample size – ideally five or more – combined with a decent win percentage (30%+), and a positive figure in the profit column and as ever, please refer to our User Guide for further information.

My own settings for the TJC Report look like this...

...and they have generated the following runners for me to check out...

1-year form...

...plus as ever, we have a list of fully functional 'free' racecards each day, which for Saturday cover...

• 1.45 Leopardstown
• 2.00 Ascot
• 2.05 Thirsk
• 2.10 Kempton
• 3.35 Haydock
• 6.30 Wolverhampton

...and from the free feature and the free races, there's a UK Group 1 contest (too many runners for my liking) and a couple of Class 2 handicaps, so let's tackle one of those to see how Charlie Appleby's likely favourite Victory Dance might fare in the 3.10 Ascot, a 9-runner, Class 2, 3yo flat handicap over a right handed 1m4f on good ground...

Gallant Lion has won his last four and overactive comes here on a hat-trick, so they're the ones in the best form, but Victory Dance is 12133 from his five UK starts and Alsakib is 2113 from his four outings, so plenty arrive here in good nick with only Struth struggling to win, having lost seven on the bounce.

Top weight Victory Dance makes a handicap debut here and wears blinkers for the first time, but does drop down a class. Gallant Lion and Dancing In Paris are both up one class and Overactive is up two levels, whilst Benacre wears cheekpieces for the first time.

We should have no fitness issues with all having raced in the last 7-37 days, but we've no previous course winners (mind you, only Struth & Benacre) have been here and only three (Struth, Overactive & True Legend) have won over a similar trip as shown on Instant Expert...

...where Struth looks very weak. Most have won on good ground already, but only Alsakib has won in the grade although I should point out that Victory Dance has won a Listed race. Overactive comes here on a hat-trick after back to backs over this kind of trip, but he is used to slightly quicker ground. That said, it is very dry right now. Let's just have a quick look at the place stats before checking any possible effect of the draw...

Struth remains weak here and after a run of seven defeats, I suspect this now becomes number eight. There's not a lot of data there, but most of it is positive so I'll keep an open mind prior to checking the draw analyser, which suggests that those drawn lowest might struggle...

...whilst our pace analyser says that those races above have suited those runners willing to set the pace or those wanting to hang back for a late run, whilst those caught between the two stools have come off worst...

and the pace/draw combinations look like this...

...suggestiong that thos drawn lowest will need to get a shift on early doors to stand much chance, whilst those drawn highest can sit further back for longest. We know the draw already and we log the pace scores from each horse's run, so we can create a pace/draw heat map for this race...

...where the high drawn mid-division runner would be Victory Dance and possibly True Legend, who would also score well as a hold-up horse. Gallant Lion and Struth play the role of mid-drawn mid-div runners, another successful combination.

Summary

Featured runner Victory Dance ticks boxes on form and ability, his trainer/jockey do really well together and he looks to have the ideal pace/draw profile for this race. He's best priced at 4/1 right now and that's probably as good as I'd hoped for and I don't see many of these beating him. Alsakib would be a possible challenger here, based on form, although the pace/draw is doing him no favours. He's going to be thereabouts, as is Overactive who might well chase Victory Dance in the early stages.

Alsakib is too shot to back E/W at 9/2, but the 7/1 and drifting about Overactive is tempting, despite his step up in class. One at bigger odds who might do better than expected could be widest-drawn hold-up type True Legend. He didn't see 1m6f out last time at York, but was previously in good form over trips like today's and at 10/1 could be an E/W play.

Other Recent Posts by This Author:

• Racing Insights, Saturday 07/09/24
• Racing Insights, Friday 06/09/24
• Racing Insights, Thursday 05/09/24
• Racing Insights, Wednesday 04/09/24
• Racing Insights, Tuesday 03/09/24