Racing Insights

Racing Insights, Friday 08/09/23

Friday is Horses For Courses (H4C) report day at Geegeez and this feature does exactly what you'd expect, as it shows the full course history since 2009 of any horse running that has previously had a run at that track, sorted by number of wins, but this can be changed to any column at your discretion.

As well as today’s race time, course, horse name, jockey and trainer name, there is a breakdown of runs, wins and places, and profit and loss calculations for both win and each way betting. And as with all Geegeez reports, there is a ‘Today’ and a ‘Tomorrow’ (for the next day’s racing) view.

HINT: Layers might like to look towards the lower end of the report, for those with negative performance at the track, but please refer to our User Guide for further information.

My chosen settings for the report...

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...have sadly yielded no qualifiers for Friday, but I can, of course, always fall back upon our daily list of 'free' races...

  • 3.00 Ascot
  • 4.25 Down Royal
  • 5.20 Ascot
  • 5.30 Down Royal
  • 5.40 Newcastle
  • 9.00 Kempton

...the best of which looks like being the 5.20 Ascot, a 12-runner, Class 4, 3yo flat handicap over a straight 7f on good ground...

No recent LTO winners here, although Vermilion did score when last seen some 349 days ago, but the form horse is surely Kimnkate who has finished 1121212 since adopting blinkers in June of this year. Gulmarg, Metahorse and Boy Browning were also placed on their last runs, although both Gulmarg and Metahorse haven't won for a while (both have lost 10 in a row!) with the same applying to Boy Browning (winless in 6), whilst the lightly raced filly, Liberty is a three-race maiden.

She now makes her handicap debut off a mark of 76 and the returning Vermilion also debuts in handicap contests here, but he's rated at 83. He does, however drop a class, whilst Liberty steps up a class. Boy Browning, Starlight Nation and De Bruyne are also up in class with Pastiche, Kimnkate & Zouzanna dropping down.

We know Vermilion has been off for nearly a year, but there shouldn't be any fitmess issues with the others, who aside from Starlight Nation (off 73 days), have all raced in the last two to six weeks. None of the field have won here before, but all bar Havana Pusey, Zouzanna, Boy Browning, Liberty (obviously) and De Bruyne have at least won over today's trip, as shown on Instant Expert...

...where off an admittedly small number of runs, Pastiche is the eye-catcher. Metahorse and Gulmarg seem to have struggled to win at this grade, but quite a few of these have done well at the trip. The place stats are very interesting, though, as Gulmarg and Metahorse are regular Class 4 placers, so maybe they've been unlucky?

...with this quintet the ones with the best overall profile...

These runners are drawn in stalls 3, 4, 5, 7 & 11, but over a straight sprint on good ground there shouldn't be much in the draw and the stats say...

...that there really isn't much in it, so no real advantage to be gained from any of this field, meaning that it might well come down to race tactics aka pace and those races above have gone as follows...

Sadly, we've not got much assistance there either if truth be told. The place stats are very similar across the board and it almost seems strange that hold-up horses do as well as the others. I'll show you how this group have approached their last few races, even if we're not going to use the data...

There should be plenty of early pace with Liberty, Metahorse, Vermilion, Boy Browning and Zouzanna all keen to get on with things here.

Summary

Short and possibly not very sweet today. We've not really got much from pace/draw, but we know which horses are in good form and which horses stood out on Instant Expert and whilst I'm not going to be going in too heavily after not using the pace/draw stats, my money would be for Kimnkate. She has been a revelation since being fitted with blinkers and although up 2lbs here, she looks the one to beat. She's 12121 under today's jockey and 5/1 looks fair enough.

Elsewhere, I'd expect the likes of Metahorse, Gulmarg and Pastiche to be involved, but all are too short to back E/W, whilst those priced at 8's or bigger make little appeal. Sometimes it's best to keep your money in your pocket.

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