Racing Insights, Saturday 12/08/23
Saturday's free feature is the Trainer/Jockey Combo (TJC) report, which works by bringing together the form of trainers and jockeys into a single composite report that has produced excellent results for users. Basically, some trainers turn to specific riders when they have one ‘ready to win’ and this report quickly identifies the most profitable of those combinations. Clicking on any row will reveal the entries for that trainer/jockey pairing whilst clicking on the entry will open the race in a new tab.
HINT: Look for a good sample size – ideally five or more – combined with a decent win percentage (30%+), and a positive figure in the profit column and as ever, please refer to our User Guide for further information.
My own settings for the TJC Report look like this...
...but they have only generated the following runners for me to look at...
...although you can't say this combo isn't hot right now! Thankfully, as always, we also have a list of fully functional 'free' racecards each day, which for Saturday cover...
- 2.30 Newmarket
- 3.00 Haydock
- 3.40 Newmarket
- 4.55 Kilbeggan
- 6.45 Lingfield
- 7.55 Kilbeggan
...and although it would now make perfect sense to look at Sleven in the 2.30 Newmarket, I'm not that into nursery races if truth be told, so I'm going to have a crack at one of the two Group 3 races above, the Rose of Lancaster Stakes. On your racecards, it's the 3.00 Haydock, a 7-runner, Group 3 flat contest for runners aged 3 and over. The trip is a left-handed 1m2½f on good ground and here's how they'll line up...
All seven raced in Class 1 company last time out in the past eight weeks and all bar King of Conquest have won over a similar trip to this one. Phantom Flight landed a 1m Novice event here on just his third outing back in May 2022, but that makes him the only previous Haydock winner, although Savvy Victory is the only other to have been here before and he was 3rd of 8 in a similar 1m Novice event back in September 2021.
King of Conquest won three on the bounce before finishing 6th in the Wolferton at Ascot and now wears cheekpieces for the first time, whilst it's a yard debut for El Drama who has moved from Roger Varian since his last run. Al Aasy, Savvy Victory and Midnight Mile all won last time out and Al Aasy is two from three whilst Midnight Mile is three from five. Classic Causeway has been last of six and sixth of eight on his two UK starts and although a decent performer in the USA, has now lost nine on the bounce, whilst El Drama is winless in seven and this pair are probably the weakest in the field.
Midnight Mile is the sole filly in the contest, as well as being the only 3 yr old and she receives a very handy 11lbs weight allowance, which should give her a really chance of continuing her fine form she showed at York recently and she scores pretty well on Instant Expert, but not as good as former group 1 runner-up Al Aasy...
...who looks to have ideal conditions ahead of him. El Drama, Phantom Flight and Savvy Victory are a combined 2 from 21 in Class 1 races and I'm not convinced any of them will turn that stat into 3 from 24 here.
The draw stats for this kind of race have suggested those further away from the rail have had the best of it...
...which isn't the best news for Phantom Flight and Al Aasy, but none of these would be out of it purely on the draw, as long as they were up with (or even set) the pace, as those races above have gone like this...
Sadly, there's very little early pace in the race and the outsider Classic Causeway is likely to be allowed a free run in the safe knowledge he's probably not good enough to see the job out...
Behind the leader, the pace scores are much of a muchness with likely favourite Al Aasy having to come past everyone if he wants to win.
Summary
Al Aasy is the 'best' horse in the race and has conditions to suit, but isn't particularly well favoured by pace or draw. That said, Classic Causeway aside, there's not much danger of him being cut adrift early on and his class should see him through. Whether 15/8 represents any value, who knows? I suspect that's about right here.
But, if you're not backing the fav, where are we going? Well, not Classic Causeway or El Drama on form, nor El Drama, Phantom Flight and Savvy Victory on Class 1 results, which leaves us with the 3/1 King of Conquest and the 6/1 Midnight Mile. The former was in great form before finishing sixth in the Wolferton, whilst the latter seemed to have plenty in hand when landing a Listed race by 2.5 lengths at York recently.
I suspect there'll be little between this pair and you could go either way, but at 6/1 with the 11lbs weight allowance, Midnight Mile is my marginal pick as main danger to Al Aasy. Some firms are paying three places here and if she drifts any, she could be a nice E/W prospect.