Racing Insights, Friday 11/08/23
Friday is Horses For Courses (H4C) report day at Geegeez and this feature does exactly what you'd expect, as it shows the full course history since 2009 of any horse running that has previously had a run at that track, sorted by number of wins, but this can be changed to any column at your discretion.
As well as today’s race time, course, horse name, jockey and trainer name, there is a breakdown of runs, wins and places, and profit and loss calculations for both win and each way betting. And as with all Geegeez reports, there is a ‘Today’ and a ‘Tomorrow’ (for the next day’s racing) view.
HINT: Layers might like to look towards the lower end of the report, for those with negative performance at the track, but please refer to our User Guide for further information.
My chosen settings for the report...
...have yielded an interesting pair of qualifiers for this Friday...
...whilst I can also fall back upon our daily list of 'free' races...
- 4.00 Brighton
- 4.45 Tipperary
- 5.10 Thirsk
- 5.40 Haydock
- 6.15 Haydock
- 7.15 Wexford
...and I think I'll have a look at Equiano Springs from the H4C) report in the 8.20 Newmarket. He has won 4 of 6 races over 6f on the Rowley course and is 2 from 2 over this course and distance which is a straight 6f on the July course. This Class 4 race has eleven runners aged 3 and over and they'll be racing on good ground...
My initial thoughts were that this could be a shootout between the oldest runner, top weight and featured horse Equiano Springs and the bottom weight 3yo filly Lady Dreamer, but let's see.
Golden Duke and Equiano Springs both won last time out with the latter scoring here over track and trip at this class. Champagne Sarah is 112 in her last three and all bar Rathbone, Tolstoy and Dashing Dick have won at least one of their four outings, but this trio have lost their last 13, 18 and 16 races respectively and that alone is enough for me to say no, thank you!
Of the eight that remain, Prospering and fast-finisher Distinguished Lady both drop down a class for a race that will be the latter's debut for Darryll Holland, having left Alice Haynes' yard in the last month. LTO winner Golden Duke goes the other way and steps up from Class 5.
Ice Cool Harry makes just a second handicap appearance, as does Lady Dreamer and as 3 yr olds they receive a useful 4lbs weight allowance, as do Distinguished Lady, Champagne Sarah (first-time cheekpieces here) and Prospering.
The entire field have raced in the last six weeks already, but all eight under consideration have been rested for at least a fortnight. Equiano Springs is 2 from 2 over 6f on the July course and he's the only previous course winner, but all of his rivals bar Flying Secret have at least one win over today's trip.
Equiano Springs, as you'd expect, dominates Instant Expert...
...but there are some good shout on place form from the likes of Distinguished Lady, Golden Duke and Lady Dreamer...
...and at this stage, I'd expect them to be the biggest danger to the top weight runner, Equiano Springs, whose berthing in stall 2 looks quite favourable, according to our Draw Analyser...
...although there's not a huge deal in it and it's likely to be the pace approach that settles this one...
...with the pace stats and the pace/draw heatmap suggesting that if Equiano is up with the pace, he stands a great chance here yet again...
...so if he's averaging around 3.00 or even better, then he's surely the one to beat...
Summary
Featured horse Equiano Springs has to be the one to beat here and having gone through the analysis above, the only surprise to me is that he can be backed at 4/1. The tissues range from 7/2 to 9/2, so 4's is about right, although I see him as a 3/1 or even shorter bet, so I'm on.
Lady Dreamer is 6/1 second favourite and she's probably right to be there, but I think Champagne Sarah is very interesting at an eachway-backable 8/1. The pace might do away with Distinguished Lady's chances, but if the race falls apart then her 14/1 odds might begin to look very big indeed.
Other Recent Posts by This Author:
- Tix Picks, Monday 09/12/24
- Tix Picks, Saturday 07/12/24
- Tix Picks, Friday 06/12/24
- Tix Picks, Thursday 05/12/24
- Tix Picks, Wednesday 04/12/24
