Racing Insights

Racing Insights, Saturday 23/12/23

Saturday's free feature is the Trainer/Jockey Combo (TJC) report, which works by bringing together the form of trainers and jockeys into a single composite report that has produced excellent results for users. Basically, some trainers turn to specific riders when they have one ‘ready to win’ and this report quickly identifies the most profitable of those combinations. Clicking on any row will reveal the entries for that trainer/jockey pairing whilst clicking on the entry will open the race in a new tab.

HINT: Look for a good sample size – ideally five or more – combined with a decent win percentage (30%+), and a positive figure in the profit column and as ever, please refer to our User Guide for further information.

My own settings for the TJC Report look like this...

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...and they have generated the following couple of runners for me to look at...

1-year form...

...plus, as always, we have a list of fully functional 'free' racecards each day, which for Saturday cover...

  • 12.15 Lingfield
  • 1.05 Newcastle
  • 2.25 Ascot
  • 2.40 Haydock

...and with one of the six races above being a stayers' contest on tricky ground, let's head to the 1.30 Haydock, where the in-form Anthony Honeyball sends the 8 yr old Credo to contest a 9-runner, Class 2, 4yo+ handicap chase over a left-handed 3m1½f on heavy ground...

Enqarde and Famous Bridge both won last time out, whilst Burrows Diamond and Credo both had runner-up finishes and Conkwell legend was third. Bill Baxter and Eleanor Bob have both won two of the last four, Famous Bridge is three from four and Credo is two from five and all have won at least one of their last seven.

Famous Bridge actually beat Credo by a length last time out over this course and distance with Eleanor Bob not too far back in fourth...

...and Credo is 3lbs better off with the winner here, so they're very closely matched, whilst Eleanor Bob is even better off today. That win by Famous Bridge here four weeks ago makes him one of two course and distance winners in this field, as Enqarde won this race last year and now runs off a mark 1lb lower than a year ago.

All bar Dr Kananga have raced in the last 14-45 days, but the 9 yr old has been off the track for some 40 weeks and has had a wind op during that time. He is, however, the only other horse in the race with a previous win over this type of trip.

Last year's and LTO winner Enqarde steps up a class here, but Bill Baxter, Burrows Diamond and Conkwell Legend all drop down from Class 1 action. Instant Expert says that the first named of that trio is this race's only previous heavy ground chase winner...

...but that several of them will enjoy the trip. To be fair to the runners here, they've not exactly failed on heavy ground, they've hardly experienced it and most of them have gone well on soft ground...

...whilst the place stats look like this...

...from which I think I'd be focusing upon Famous Bridge and Credo most. The pace data from the field's last few races say that Credo is likely to be held up for a run, whilst Famous Bridge tends to run in mid-division. All indications, however, point to the likes of Eleanor Bob and Dr Kananga setting the early tempo...

Our pace analyser suggests this early pace is the best approach to winning races here, but that a mid-divisional position is great for making the frame...

Summary

Famous Bridge, Credo and Eleanor Bob were first, second and fourth home here at class, course and distance last time out and I think that's where I want to be looking. Despite the pace stats suggesting that Credo might struggle, her yard is in cracking form and with a 3lb pull on the LTO winner, I fancy her to overturn those placings. Eleanor Bob is also better off at the weights here and was running for the first time in 21 months last time out. She gets weight all round here and should come on for having had the run and I suspect/hope we'll have a cracking three-way battle after three energy-sapping miles.

They are, understandably, well-fancied by the 4.30pm market...

...and with neither of them really long enough for an E/W bet, my play here is Credo at 11/2.

That's me done now until after Christmas, so wherever you are and however you spend Christmas, I sincerely hope it's an enjoyable one.
All the best,
Chris

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