Racing Insights

Racing Insights, Thursday 02/11/23

Thursday's free feature, the Instant Expert racecard tab is one of Geegeez readers' most popular tools because it has the unique ability to condense the entire form profile of every runner in the race into a single, easily digestible, view covering the form in terms of wins (or places), runs, and win (or place) percentage for each of going, class, course, distance, and field size.

It also compares today’s official rating with the horse’s last winning official rating. The display is colour coded: green for a higher percentage rate, amber for a middling percentage, and red for a low percentage. Horses with no form under a certain condition have grey figures.

IMPORTANT NOTE: Where a horse has no UK/Irish form – i.e. it is having its first run in Britain or Ireland under Rules – it will not show up on Instant Expert at all.

We make this feature freely available to ALL readers EVERY Thursday for ALL races, including, naturally, our selection of 'free' races as follows...

Your first 30 days for just £1

  • 1.30 Thurles
  • 2.10 Wolverhampton
  • 2.15 Newcastle
  • 2.30 Lingfield
  • 3.15 Thurles
  • 3.30 Stratford

Our free races above are all pretty low grade affairs, so I'm just going to blindly look at the day's highest rated races instead, of which there are four Class 3 contests. I'm happy to swerve the pair of Novice Hurdle contests, leaving me with a 7-runner chase and a 9-runner hurdle. As I do like the odd E/W flutter, I'm going to focus on the latter, which happens to be the 1.55 Lingfield, a 9-runner, Class 3, 3yo+ handicap hurdle over a left-handed 2m on good to soft/soft ground. More rain is coming, so I expect this to be run on soft ground...

Bottom weight Havaila was a 75-;ength winner of a two-horse race on his last effort over hurdles (April) but has kept sharp with a run on the flat three weeks ago. Hecouldbetheone has been a runner-up in each of his last two and has won two of six, whilst all bar Front View have a win in their most recent form line.

Plenty of class-movers here, as Yorksea, Hecouldbetheone, Believe Jack and Havaila all step up one level and Made For You is up three. Go Dante drops a class and Branson Missouri drops two. This will be handicap debut day for both Believe Jack and Hecouldbetheone and the latter runs for Chris Gordon for the first time since leaving Gary Moore. Front View wears a tongue tie for the first time here, as does top-weight Go Dante.

Yorksea, Front View and Havaila have all had the benefit of a run in the last three weeks, but Made For You, Go Dante and Totterdown have been off for 6-8 months. Branson Missouri returns from a 10-month absence, whilst the handicap debutants Hecouldbetheone and Believe Jack might well need the run after layoffs of 19 and 22 months respectively.

Branson Missouri is the only one of these to have raced here at Lingfield before (2nd of 10, beaten by 8.5 lengths in Nov '22 over 2m3½f) and he's also one of six to have scored over a similar trip to this one, with only Yorksea, Hecouldbetheone and Havaila yet to do so, as documented by Instant Expert...

Not a lot to report upon there, but Go Dante's two soft ground wins are interesting and he ahs won at the trip. Front View and Made For You have poor win records on soft ground, but I think we need some help from the place data...

...which paints a much better picture for many of these, but I'm not sure it helps me narrow the race down, aside from casting Totterdown from the process.

Our Pace Analyser gives us the following data from past similar contests...

...which based on this field's last few outings...

...probably points to Havaila as the prominent runner ready to pounce on the leaders.

Summary

If I'm brutally honest, I'm not getting any strong feeling for this race and my advice would be to leave it and walk away.

The Geegeez ethos is that if there isn't a bet there, don't force one, so I'm declaring this a no bet for me. The early market suggests a 3-horse race...

..and they're probably right, but there's not enough to interest me in any of that trio at 7/2 or shorter and I'm not keen on any of the longer-priced runners. Fingers crossed for a better choice fo race tomorrow!

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