Racing Insights

Racing Insights, Thursday 11/07/24

Thursday's free feature, the Instant Expert racecard tab is one of Geegeez readers' most popular tools because it has the unique ability to condense the entire form profile of every runner in the race into a single, easily digestible, view covering the form in terms of wins (or places), runs, and win (or place) percentage for each of going, class, course, distance, and field size.

It also compares today’s official rating with the horse’s last winning official rating. The display is colour coded: green for a higher percentage rate, amber for a middling percentage, and red for a low percentage. Horses with no form under a certain condition have grey figures.

IMPORTANT NOTE: Where a horse has no UK/Irish form – i.e. it is having its first run in Britain or Ireland under Rules – it will not show up on Instant Expert at all.

We make this feature freely available to ALL readers EVERY Thursday for ALL races, including, naturally, our selection of 'free' races as follows...

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  • 2.45 Carlisle
  • 3.35 Newmarket
  • 4.55 Doncaster
  • 6.25 Newbury
  • 8.30 Leopardstown

...the best of which has to be the 3.35 Newmarket aka the Prince of Wales' Stakes, a 6-runner, Group 2 flat race over a right-handed 1m4f on what looks like being good to soft / soft ground...

My initial thoughts were that this should be Hamish's race to win/lose with (in card order) Giavelotto and Arrest the best of the rest and most likely to challenge, but let's see...

GIAVELLOTTO was last seen eight weeks ago winning the Group 2 Yorkshire Cup at York for the second year running. He carries a 3lb penalty for that win, but does drop back 2f in trip. He has won three of his last seven races, has a career place strike rate of 75% (9 from 12) and was a winner here over 1m6f back in August 2022 in what was his last handicap run.

OUTBOX is one of three Frankel offspring in this race along with Arrest and Time Lock and is a confirmed front-runner, as demonstrated when he won the Group 2 Jockey Club Stakes on the Rowley track here at HQ on his last UK run (3rd May) beating the re-opposing Time Lock by 2½ lengths) to end a run of 14 consecutive UK defeats. Has finished 9th of 10 and last of 7 in two runs in Europe since and could well struggle here.

ARREST has won four of ten starts, making the frame is half of his six defeats, including two runner-up finishes in his three runs (one of which was the 2023 St Leger!) since winning the Gr 3 Geoffrey Freer Stakes at Newbury last August. He also won the Gr 3 Chester Vase in May '23 and ran a decent race at Chester again last time out.

HAMISH won the Gr3 Ormonde Stakes at Chester just over two years ago and since then has finished in the first two home in nine successive races, winning six times taking his last ten finishes to read 1212111112 culminating in a one length defeat in the Gr 1 Coronation Cup at Epsom, when probably given too much to do late on. I can't seen him not finishing in the first two here yet again.

MAXI KING is probably way out of his depth here if truth be told. His best result to date is a Class 2 handicap win over this trip on the Rowley Mile in May but was only 11th of 16 in another Class 2 handicap at Ascot last time out.

TIME LOCK won a Listed race at Craon in France last September before going on to land the Group 3 Princess Royal Stakes on the Rowley Mile here last September and was also a 2½ length runner-up behind Giavellotto in the Jockey Club Stakes on her return from over six months off the track. She disappointed in the Coronation Cup last time out, when last home of five, beaten by the best part of 24 lengths and 23 lengths behind Hamish, so she has plenty to find here based on that result. The going is also against her here, as her two wins in the UK came on Good to Firm ground.

Instant Expert also puts a tick next to Hamish's name based purely on win stats under today's expected conditions...

...with Arrest probably next in line, although Giavellotto's place figures would appear to be better than Arrest's and the chances are that these are both vying for second place if truth be told...

...and Outbox looks hard to back/recommend!

As you'd expect, there's not a huge draw bias over a trip of a mile and a half in a small field, but if there is anything to be gained, then the lower half of the draw has prevailed most often, not withstanding a freakish result for stall 5, which might give more hope to followers of Giavellotto...

If a horse does want to gain an advantage, there is a way and that's by dictating the pace of the race from the front as leaders here have done far better in those races above from both a win and place perspective, than the other three running styles...

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...which might just give Outbox a chance of competing if this field's last few races are anything to go by...

So, Outbox is drawn low and has the ideal pace profile here in a race that lacks other genuine front-runners, but he's in poor form right now and I can't see Ryan Moore (on Time Lock) letting him get as far clear as he did in the Jockey Club Stakes in May, especially as Time Lock is 3lbs better off here. What I suspect will happen is that Outbox will be sent out to win from the front the other five will race together and slowly reel him in.


I still can't see Hamish getting beaten here and whilst I'm not normally a fan of backing shorties, his current (5pm Wednesday) price of 10/11 might even represent some value, as he has been sent off shorter than that in three of his last six Group 3 contests. So I suppose, it's just a case of ho comes second and that's still down to Giavelotto / Arrest for me. There's not much to choose between them, if truth be told, but Giavelotto has a better place record than Arrest and his 6/1 ticket offers more value than the latter's 7/2 and could well be an E/W option at 1/4 odds.


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