Racing Insights

Racing Insights, Wednesday 10/07/24

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Wednesday's free Geegeez GOLD feature, the Trainer Statistics (TS) report is, in fact, four reports in one. It contains information on a trainer’s recent form, and their longer term course form. For each of 14 day, 30 day, course one year, and course five year, users can filter by runs, wins, places, win profit/loss and each way profit/loss. Clicking on any row in the report will reveal the runners that trainer has entered on the day in question, and clicking on the runner row will open that race in a new tab.

HINT: It can help to cross refer the profit figures of the trainer with their win/place percentage. A few big priced winners can mean a trainer has a high profit number but a low strike rate. You may need to be very patient, and a bit lucky, to come out in front this way!

[ Please refer to our User Guide for further information ]

My own personal settings for the TS report are fairly restrictive...

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...but have actually highlighted quite a list of qualifiers...


...for me to consider. In addition to the free daily feature, we always open up a number of racecards to non-Gold subscribers and for this Wednesday, they are...

  • 2.30 Lingfield
  • 2.40 Yarmouth
  • 4.20 Catterick
  • 4.50 Fairyhouse
  • 5.05 Kempton

...giving me a grand total of ten separate UK races to choose from! Of those, the 5.05 Kempton is the highest-rated at Class 2, but a field of thirteen novices with a combined total of twenty-two career races doesn't give much to work from, so the next 'best' is the 5.00 Lingfield, where Roger Varian will look for another course winner with his in-form 3yo gelding Nazron in a 5-runner, Class 4, 3yo+ flat handicap over a straight 5f on soft ground...



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As you can see, none of them managed to win last time out, but Nazron and McLoven were runners-up, as they both have been three times recently. McLoven, however, is up in class here and is the only runner without a win in seven starts, turning a career start of 2 wins from 4 into his current 2 wins from 11 and he's 0 from 8 on turf.

All five have raced at least once in the last four weeks and Tsunami Spirit is the only one yet to win over this minimum trip, as his sole success was over 6f on the polytrack at Kempton. The 5yr old mare Mary of Modena is the sole non-3yo in the field and has failed to win any of her last five outings, but her win over 6f on good ground here back in May '22 is this field's only course win, according to a fairly-sorry looking Instant Expert...

...from which the takeaways are that we're bereft of Class 4 wins on the Flat, but Mary of Modena (who seems to like soft ground) & Kiss and Run both have a pair of Class 5 wins on turf. McLoven has struggled over this trip, despite having plenty of practice and on these numbers above, it's Mary of Modena edging it and she also has a really good place record under these conditions...

...where McLoven continues to look vulnerable.

We don't have much in the way of data for small field sprints on soft ground here at Lingfield (it is July after all!), but I wasn't really expecting much of a draw bias over a straight 5f anyway, but here's the data we do have..

...which I suppose backs up my thoughts. And if those nine wins have been equally shared amongst the three draw zones, it's a fairly similar story with regards to pace. None of the eight mid-division runners (too small a sample to trust in my opinion) have won, but otherwise, the wins have been shared equally...
...which brings me to the place stats to provide a little guidance and if runners want to make the frame, they're advised (as is often the case over 5f) to get on with it pretty quickly and if we look at this field's recent efforts...
...it looks like McLoven and Mary of Modena will be setting the tempo and the contest and there's a serious danger of Tsunami Spirit being run out of things.

Summary

In a reversal of how I normally summarise, I'm going to start by showing you the market as it stands at 4.30pm Tuesday*...
*odds taken from Hills, the only book open
I can't back Nazron at 11/10 if I rely on the data above, even if he's probably the best in the race and he's in good nick and his yard do well here, there's just no value there for me, you're welcome to disagree, of course. McLoven also looks too short at 3/1 for a horse that is winless in seven and an overall 0 from 8 on the flat and scored poorly on Instant Expert. He does have an ideal pace profile here, of course, but he's still not for me.
The pace looks like it might well rule Tsunami Spirit out of the equation, which effectively leaves me with the two outsiders in the contest if I wanted to place a bet. The truth is that I don't really want to throw much, if any, cash at this one now that I've looked at it, but if I do, it'll probably be a small E/W bet on Mary of Modena. She'd be an unlikely winner, I suppose, but she has won on this track, she scores well on the place element of Instant Expert and will be right u with the pace.
Stranger things have happened!

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