Racing Insights, Thursday 15/06/23 geegeez.co.uk

Thursday's free feature, the Instant Expert racecard tab is one of Geegeez readers' most popular tools because it has the unique ability to condense the entire form profile of every runner in the race into a single, easily digestible, view covering the form in terms of wins (or places), runs, and win (or place) percentage for each of going, class, course, distance, and field size.

It also compares today’s official rating with the horse’s last winning official rating. The display is colour coded: green for a higher percentage rate, amber for a middling percentage, and red for a low percentage. Horses with no form under a certain condition have grey figures.

IMPORTANT NOTE: Where a horse has no UK/Irish form – i.e. it is having its first run in Britain or Ireland under Rules – it will not show up on Instant Expert at all.

We make this feature freely available to ALL readers EVERY Thursday for ALL races, including, naturally, our selection of 'free' races as follows...

2.20 Newbury
2.50 Newbury
4.30 Newbury
5.10 Yarmouth
5.50 Worcester
7.40 Haydock

...from which, we'll look at the 4.30 Newbury, a 9-runner, Class 4, 4yo+ flat handicap over a straight 6f on good ground...

Only Shobiz won last time out and since making the frame without winning his first five races, has now won three from seven. Dakota Power, Treacherous, Sarah's Verse & Strike also have at least one win in their recent form-line. Shobiz also benefits from a drop in class here, as do American Star, Capote's Dream and Treacherous, whilst Magnificence, Sarah's Verse and Strike are all up one class. Dakota Power actually drops two classes for his handicap debut some 558 days after his last outing when last home of three at Wolverhampton, making this also his turf debut!

Elsewhere Capote's Dream adds a first-time tongue to go with his cheekpieces, American Star wears blinkers for the second time and it's a third run in cheekpieces for Magnificence, who is the only one in the field yet to win at this type of trip. American Star has won here over 7f, whilst Shobiz won over course and distance last time out.

All bar the returning Dakota Power have raced in the last two months with Magnificence having ran as recently as last Friday, when a half length runner-up at Haydock. He goes off the same mark here, which according to Instant Expert is 3lbs higher than his last win and the weights show three runners well below their last winning marks...

I've left the above as Flat and A/W just to show turf debutant Dakota Power's decent A/W stats, but when we look at just Flat records...

...the ones of immediate interest would be American Star, Shobiz, Capote's Dream and Sarah's Verse in card order. Jack's Point hasn't fared well at this trip with 1 win from 9, but he is only 1 from 26 on the Flat overall, so he'd not be one to hang your hat on anyway. Elsewhere, there are no real alarms ringing and there's not much above to cause me to discard any others just yet.

In terms of draw stats, the bare data suggest those drawn lowest would have the upper hand...

...but there really should be too much of a draw bias over a straight 6f here and the PRB data suggests a more even spread of results...

There is a slight drop off for stall 10 in the 10-runner races, but otherwise, there's not a great deal of difference between 'best' and 'worst' stalls 2 and 9, which then suggests that as with many straight sixes on decent ground, it'll all be about pace but those races used above for the draw data aren't entirely conclusive, but you don't want to be backing a hold-up horse if you've ideas about winning here...

Leaders tend to hang on for a place, but only 29.2% of those making the frame go on to win and it's a similar return for prominent running placers, but almost 70% of those making the frame from mid-division go on to win, whilst again hold-up horses fare poorly. Based on how this field have approached their most recent outings...

...you'd have concerns about Treacherous, Capote's Dream and Sarah's Verse trying to make up ground in what might well be a falsely-run race. American Star and Dakota Power might be the ones to take it on, whilst it could well be Shobiz, Strike and Magnificence in that prized mid-division position.

Summary

From above, the positives... Shobiz won last time out; Dakota Power, Treacherous, Sarah's Verse & Strike all have a fairly recent win on their form lines. Shobiz drops in class here, as do American Star, Capote's Dream and Treacherous. American Star is a course winner over 7 and Shobiz has own over track and trip. Shobiz, Strike and Magnificence might get an advantage racing in mid-division.

The negatives... American Star, Capote's Dream, Jack's Point and Magnificence are without a recent win. Dakota Power hasn't raced on turf before and hasn't raced for a very longtime. Magnificence, Sarah's Verse and Strike are all up one class and the former is the only one without a win at this trip, whilst Jack's Point has a really poor Flat record. Treacherous, Capote's Dream and Sarah's Verse look like struggling from a hold-up position.

And from all that, Shobiz is the one whose positives far outweigh any possible negatives, which would explain why he's the early 5/4 favourite. I'm not really a fan of backing horses at that kind of price, but he really should be winning this quite cosily. Second favourite Magnificence ran well last week off today's mark, but is up in class and has been out of sorts for a long time.

Only three horses, aside from Shobiz emerge from the analysis slightly in credit after taking the negatives from the positives and they are American Star, Treacherous and Strike. If i'm honest, I don't see of them really challenging the winner, but all have a shout of making the frame, if things fall their way, of course.

Treacherous is too short to go E/W at 11/2, but American Star (12/1) & Strike (14/1) might be worth a small punt here.

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