Racing Insights

Racing Insights, Thursday 21/09/23

Did you know that the Instant Expert tab is by far the most popular tab on the geegeez racecards?

That's because it has the ability to condense the entire form profile of every runner in the race into a single, easily digestible, view. The report covers the form in terms of wins (or places), runs, and win (or place) percentage for each of going, class, course, distance, and field size. It also compares today’s official rating with the horse’s last winning official rating. The display is colour coded: green for a higher percentage rate, amber for a middling percentage, and red for a low percentage. Horses with no form under a certain condition have grey figures.

IMPORTANT NOTE: Where a horse has no UK/Irish form – i.e. it is having its first run in Britain or Ireland under Rules – it will not show up on Instant Expert at all.

This GOLD feature is so important that we make freely available to ALL readers EVERY Thursday alongside our usual selection of FREE races which, for this Thursday are...

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  • 2.50 Listowel
  • 3.00 Ayr
  • 4.45 Ayr
  • 5.05 Yarmouth
  • 5.45 Listowel

On paper, the 'best' of the three UK races above (I rarely get involved in Irish racing) looks like being the first ie the 3.00 Ayr, a 9-runner, Class 2, 3yo+ flat handicap over a left-handed 1m2f on good/good to soft ground...

Cockalorum and Painters Palette boith won last time out and the latter is two from his last three. Elsewhere, Mr Alan won three starts ago, Austrian Theory won 6 races back and Auld Toon Loon has won two of five; the rest are winless of late.

Only three of the field raced at Class 2 on thier last outing as Cockalorum, painters palette and What's The Story all step up a class, whilst both Auld Toon Loon and Fools Rush In are up two levels, despite failing to make the frame last time out.

All bar Mr Alan have raced in the last 8 (Fools Rush In) to 38 (Cockalorum) days, but he might well need a run after a 265-day absence from the track. That said he has won here in the past, scoring over a mile almost two years ago. Two others have also won here, as both Euchan Glen and What's The Story are course and distance winners. Mr Alan, Auld Loon Toon and Cockalorum have also won over similar trips elsewhere.

Feature of the day, Instant Expert, looks like this for win and place percentages...

I'm always a little concerned when win percentages are shown as red after 10 races or more, which raised quite a few issues here, such as Euchan Glen (class), Austrian Theory (going), What's The Story (going/class/distance!), Cockalorum (going/class) and Fools Rush In (class). Euchan Glen looks the pick on course and distance, whilst his going stats are no worse than the others and he's the standout on the place data as the only one with no red!

Draw stats from previous similar contests suggest that those drawn lowest have fared the best...

...whilst the pace data suggests that leaders often struggle to hang on and eventually get beaten...

...so, when the pace draw heat map says that you're best off with those drawn low and running prominently, it doesn't come as much of a surprise!

...although hold-up horses drawn centrally have done pretty well too, so as we already know the draw, let's look at the field's recent pace profiles...

...with the three highlighted runners fitting the pace/draw heat map best.

Summary

Painters Palette brings the best form to the race and whilst his Instant Expert scores aren't brilliant, he hasn't had that many races under these conditions, but he does have the ideal pace/draw setup for this contest. In all, he'd be my one to beat, but his current (5.30pm) 11/4 price looks a little on the skinny side.

Austrian Theory also looks good on the heat map, but in the absence of front-running Marie's Diamond (non-runner), I suspect he'll end up being the pacemaker along with Auld Toon Loon and that's not normally a recipe for success here.

Euchan Glen, however, is likely to be towards the rear, an ideal spot for a centrally drawn runner. His recent form hasn't been great, but he does love it here, he's down in trip and Instant Expert gives him a great chance of making the frame, as do I. I don't place E/W bets at 6/1, so wouldn't be backing him, but I do think he'll make the frame.

I probably won't have an E/W bet here as only Austrian Theory (16/1), Thundering (20/1) and Fools Rush In (20/1) are longer than 6/1, but if I was to pick one of that trio to outrun the odds, it might well be Fools Rush In, receiving weight all round, but it's not a bet I'd be placing. Austrian Theory might well set the pace and cling on for a place if they don't come after him early, but again, it's be a watching brief for me here.

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