Racing Insights, Wednesday 20/09/23
Wednesday's free Geegeez GOLD feature, the Trainer Statistics (TS) report is, in fact, four reports in one. It contains information on a trainer’s recent form, and their longer term course form. For each of 14 day, 30 day, course one year, and course five year, users can filter by runs, wins, places, win profit/loss and each way profit/loss. Clicking on any row in the report will reveal the runners that trainer has entered on the day in question, and clicking on the runner row will open that race in a new tab.
HINT: It can help to cross refer the profit figures of the trainer with their win/place percentage. A few big priced winners can mean a trainer has a high profit number but a low strike rate. You may need to be very patient, and a bit lucky, to come out in front this way!
[ Please refer to our User Guide for further information ]
In addition to the free daily feature, we always open up a number of racecards to non-Gold subscribers and for Wednesday, they are...
- 1.55 Sandown
- 3.45 Yarmouth
- 3.50 Listowel
- 4.50 Sandown
My own personal settings for the TS report...
...have only highlighted one trainer in short-term form...
14-day form...
...but as In The Trenches runs in one of our 'free' races, I really should take a look at the 4.50 Sandown, a 9-runner, Class 4, 3yo flat handicap over a right-handed 1m2f on good to soft ground...
Star Ahoy and Born Ruler both won their last starts and the latter has two wins and two places from his last five. Miss Dolly Rocker won her penultimate race and has made the frame in all seven career outings. Featured horse In The Trenches is a four-race maiden, whilst Miller Spirit is 0 from 5.
A few of these are short of handicap experience with Goldsborough, Ashtanga, In The Trenches and Miss Dolly Rocker all having just their second crack, whilst LTO winner Star Ahoy is a handicap debutant today and like In The Trenches and bottom weight Outgun he steps up a class here.
New Dayrell and Miss Dolly Rocker both drop a class, but Goldsborough is down teo levels and sports a hood for the first time, Miller Spirit makes a debut in cheekpieces.
Both Born Ruler and New Dayrell have already won over course and distance, whilst Star Ahoy and Miss Dolly Rocker have won over 1m2f at Pontefract and Nottingham respectively. Born Ruler's win over track and trip was just five days ago and he's turned back out quickest here, but most of the field have raced in the last seven weeks. Star Ahoy has been off for ten weeks whilst Ashtanga/In The Trenches haven't been seen since early June and may need the run.
Born Ruler has never raced on good to soft, but his LTO win over course and distance gives him plenty of green on Instant Expert, albeit off just the one run under these conditions...
He does, however, bear a 6lb penalty for last week's win and New Dayrell is still 4lbs higher than his last win, three starts ago, despite being eased a couple of pounds today. His last two efforts off 79 were fairly lacklustre. We already knew that Miller Spirit was a 5-race maiden, so the above line of red was no surprise, but despite all his races being over similar trips to today, we can now see that he hasn't even made the frame yet...
...making him the first to be cut from my considerations even before we consider whether the draw will have much impact.
Our draw analyser would initially suggest that those drawn lowest would be best placed here...
...but when I look at the actual stall-by-stall data, I'm not entirely convinced that the bias is as strong as above...
...as the data has been skewed by what can only be an anomalous 0 from 37 for stall 6. There's no rhyme nor reason for one stall to have struggled like that and if we look at the PRB3 figures, stall 8 (Born Ruler) is deemed to be the best place to run from...
...so for me, the draw stats can only be described as inconclusive, which then places greater emphasis (and a hope for some help!) on the pace data, where our pace analyser says that this type of race can be won from anywhere in the pack, but that leaders fare best and the further forward you race, the better the chance of making the frame...
...which based on recent efforts suggests another big run from the ever-consistent Miss Dolly Rocker, who seeks to make it 8 places from 8 starts...
Summary
The one I liked best here was Born Ruler; he's in great form and has won recently over course and distance and the manner of his win last week suggested that he had plenty in hand. That said, this ground is softer than he has faced before and he is up 6lbs, which makes life tougher. In all likelihood, he's the one to beat here, but there's not a great deal of value/scope in Hill's early (4.30pm) 9/4 price tag. Ideally, I'd have managed to another half point from them, but maybe other firms will be a little more generous.
The softer conditions won't affect Miss Dolly Rocker, though; she was a good to soft ground runner-up last time out when unlucky to bump into a horse winning for the fourth time in eight starts. She drops in class here and will aim to add to a soft ground win two starts ago. She hasn't been out of the frame in any of her seven career outings and I fancy that to become eight here and at attractive odds of 13/2, I think she's worth a quid or two.
The frame should then be completed by the LTO winner, Star Ahoy, who currently shows at 4/1. He narrowly won over this trip last time out on ground that was a little softer than good and although up in class and weight, should still be on the premises. I can't back him at 4's, of course, but he should go well without the pressure of my money on his back!
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