Racing Insights, Wednesday 25/10/23
Wednesday's free Geegeez GOLD feature, the Trainer Statistics (TS) report is, in fact, four reports in one. It contains information on a trainer’s recent form, and their longer term course form. For each of 14 day, 30 day, course one year, and course five year, users can filter by runs, wins, places, win profit/loss and each way profit/loss. Clicking on any row in the report will reveal the runners that trainer has entered on the day in question, and clicking on the runner row will open that race in a new tab.
HINT: It can help to cross refer the profit figures of the trainer with their win/place percentage. A few big priced winners can mean a trainer has a high profit number but a low strike rate. You may need to be very patient, and a bit lucky, to come out in front this way!
[ Please refer to our User Guide for further information ]
In addition to the free daily feature, we always open up a number of racecards to non-Gold subscribers and for Wednesday, they are...
- 1.50 Newmarket
3.25 Worcester- 3.45 Fontwell
- 4.10 Newmarket
4.28 Curragh
My own personal settings for the TS report...
...have only highlighted Charlie Appleby's record at HQ over the last 5 years and he runs a trio there on Wednesday...
...of which one runs in one of our free races, so let's have a closer look at Mountain Song and the 4.10 Newmarket in general. It's a 9-runner, Class 3, 3yo+ fillies' flat race over a straight mile on soft ground...
Karmology is our sole LTO winner and she's unbeaten in her two starts so far. Zouzanna (a winner in two of her last five), Orzo (won on debut), Prisha (won two starts ago) and Bint Al Daar ( a win and three places from her last five) were all in the frame on their last outings; Rocha Do Leao is the only one yet to win.
Many of these are short on handicap experience and this is just a second effort for both Rocha Do Leao and Prisha, whilst it's handicap debut day for Orzo and hat-trick seeking Karmology. Just two of this field, Morning Poem and Orzo are older than 3 yrs old, so they're technically 3lbs worse off at the weights and the former is now blinkered for the first time, but she does drop down a class here.
She's the only class dropper, as Rocha Do Leao, Prisha and Bint Al Daar all step up a level, whilst Karmology and Orzo are both up two classes. The latter is one of just two (along with Rocha Do Leao) yet to win over a mile. We've no previous course winners, but the field haven't been here that often. Most of them have had an outing in the last month or so and Prisha raced just over seven weeks ago, but featured runner Mountain Song has been off the track for nearly fifteen weeks and Orzo might well beed the run after a 28-week break.
Past form under today's conditions is brought to you by Instant Expert, as usual...
That was always going to look a little sparse with nine runners sharing just fifty-four previous outings, but it's good to see that Choisya has a Class 3 Flat win and she gets the trip. She is, however, 6lbs above her last winning mark and Morning Poem is 7lbs above here. No real causes for alarm here, but Bint Al Daar's record over the trip isn't the best, but the graphic below suggests that she's a regular placer...
...and aside from not having raced in this grade, her place credentials are the best on offer as her Flat form reads 3361322. She did win over a mile here on the July course in August, but is now 8lbs higher that that win, which is probably why she's not winning! Her soft ground form might well be the key here, though. She'll run from stall 3 of 9 here and over a straight mile, you wouldn't expect much of a draw bias, but previous similar races seem to have favoured those drawn higher...
...but I still suspect that pace will be the key here and those races above have been won by a bigger percentage of front-runners/leaders than any other running style...
...although horses racing in mid-division seem to come strong late on to make the frame. This apparent bias towards those willing to take it on early looks like good news for three or four of this field based on recent outings...
If we combine pace and draw, the heat map looks like this...
...with the ideal scenario being the high-drawn leader. Choisya and Karmology look like being the front runners and although stalls 5 and 6 aren't exactly high, the latter is only one berth away from the optimum combination.
Summary
I'll be honest and admit that I'm still a little sceptical about draw bias on a straight track and I'll virtually always veer towards pace as my helper in these situations and as the graphic above shows, there are four best suited by the pace here; Karmology, Choisya, Mountain Song and Orzo and they occupy stalls 4 to 7, so at least none are exactly drawn low.
It's these four that I want as my shortlist, even if Bint Al Daar's place record is excellent. I don't fancy her to win here and at 7/1 I can't back her E/W, although I would be tempted if she drifts.
As for the winner here, Karmology is the horse in form and whilst it's easy to just back the 7/2 fav, I do think she'll go on to win this. the others in that trio are priced at 6/1, 11/2 and 6/1, so that shows how tight this might be and I won't be backing any of them E/W. Again, like Bint Al Daar, I want at least 8's to get involved.
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