Racing Insights, Tuesday 16/04/24
Tuesday's free offering from the GOLD service is the The Shortlist feature, a simple – and usually brief – report highlighting those horses with a largely ‘green’ profile in the Instant Expert Report each day. It covers win or place stats, and can be viewed for both today’s and tomorrow’s racing.
GREENis good (33% or better win rate) – worth 3 points
AMBERis quite good (16-32% win rate) – worth 1 point
REDis not so good (0-15% win rate) – worth -1 points
GREY means there is no available data for that factor - worth 0 points
The final column, ‘Score’, is the sum of the previous five ‘colour’ columns, with 15 being an all green profile, and 9 being the lowest score appearing on this report.
HINT: The best bets are not necessarily the highest scores. Rather, they are often the biggest difference between a Shortlist horse and the ‘best of the rest’ in that race.
N.B. Shortlist selections are unlikely to make a profit, at SP at least, to blind backing. Our recommendation is – and has always been – that The Shortlist should be a starting point rather than an end in itself. That said, it continues to highlight horses whose chance is better than recent form - and its odds - imply. As ever, please refer to our User Guide for further information!
And this how The Shortlist looks for this Tuesday...
...where the first pair would be of the most obvious interest and we do still also have our daily list of 'free' racecards, which are as follows...
- 2.40 Naas
- 3.30 Newmarket
- 3.40 Ffos Las
- 5.00 Naas
...and as I can't resist stayers' handicaps on difficult ground, it has to be In Rem and the 4.50 Ffos Las for me today. It's an 8-runner (fingers crossed for E/W bettors), Class 4, 4yo+ handicap hurdle over a left-handed three miles on heavy ground...
None of the eight managed to win last time out, but Ballymagroarty Boy, Mahland, Longshanks, In Rem, Fevertre and Monbari all made top three finishes. Mahland and Longshanks have been runners-up in each of their last two starts, whilst Fevertre has a win and a runner-up finish from his last two.
Fevertre's recent good form might now be checked as he steps up a class to run here, but this contest might prove a little easier than Minella Blueway and Thunderclap's last outings as they both make a double drop down from Class 2 action last time. Mahland no runs in a handicap for the second time after a narrow half-length defeat at Exeter recently.
Ballymagroarty Boy and In Rem are the only two horses to have won at either track or trip and they have both, in fact, won here over course and distance with the former doing so four starts and four months ago when winning for the first time in five years, whilst In Rem won here in October 2021 at the start of a sequence of five consecutive victories over trips of 2m5½f to 3m2½f and as you'd expect from a runner on The Shortlist, he's the eyecatcher on Instant Expert...
...mind you, the bar looks to be set fairly low, as Minella Blueway is 0 from 4 on heavy ground; Ballymagroarty Boy, Longshanks and Fevertre have struggled to win Class 4 races and Ballymagroarty Boy's return at this trip is lamentable at 1 win from 14, but he has (somewhat surprisingly!) made the frame in nine of the thirteen defeats...
...numbers that in isolation give him a great chance of making the frame again, whilst Thunderclap and Monbari look a little vulnerable.
In the past, it has paid to be up with the pace here over hurdles at Ffos Las in contests of 2m6f and beyond on ground deemed as soft or 'worse'...
...which based on the field's more recent efforts could be good news for Mahland, Longshanks, Monbari and Ballymagroarty Boy...
...whilst featured runner In Rem led the way last time out before eventually finishing third at Exeter. He was three lengths behind the re-opposing runner-up, Longshanks, that day but is 3lbs better off today, suggesting the two might be much more closely matched here.
Summary
I though the 'best' two horses in the race might well be Mahland and Longshanks, but based on their last run and the weight adjustment here, In Rem will be closer to Longshanks. And it's Mahland, Longshanks and Fevertre who arrive here in the best form. In Rem was the immediate eyecatcher on Instant Expert, but it was hard to ignore Ballymagroarty Boy's place numbers and he also seems well suited by the pace profiling, as do Mahland, Longshanks and Monbari.
Based on the names featured in that quick summary above, Mahland and Longshanks are the ones who feature most, so should really be my 1-2 and I'd have them in that order. That said In Rem could well overturn the LTO placings with Longshanks and it's hard to ignore the place claims of Ballymagroarty Boy. Hopefully the market at 5.50pm will help me formulate any potential bet.
Having checked the odds, Mahland would still be my winner here, but I think 11/4 is a bit mean/short, so I'll pass on that option. 5/1 looks fair/reasonable about Longshanks, but I don't see him winning the race and 5/1 is no E/W price in my eyes, but that can't be said about the 9/1 and 10/1 being offered about In Rem and Ballymagroarty Boy respectively and I think a couple of small E/W plays there might be the call for me.
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