Tuesday's free offering from the GOLD service is the The Shortlist feature, a simple – and usually brief – report highlighting those horses with a largely ‘green’ profile in the Instant Expert Report each day. It covers win or place stats, and can be viewed for both today’s and tomorrow’s racing.
GREENis good (33% or better win rate) – worth 3 points
AMBERis quite good (16-32% win rate) – worth 1 point
REDis not so good (0-15% win rate) – worth -1 points
GREY means there is no available data for that factor - worth 0 points
The final column, ‘Score’, is the sum of the previous five ‘colour’ columns, with 15 being an all green profile, and 9 being the lowest score appearing on this report.
HINT: The best bets are not necessarily the highest scores. Rather, they are often the biggest difference between a Shortlist horse and the ‘best of the rest’ in that race.
N.B. Shortlist selections are unlikely to make a profit, at SP at least, to blind backing. Our recommendation is – and has always been – that The Shortlist should be a starting point rather than an end in itself. That said, it continues to highlight horses whose chance is better than recent form - and its odds - imply. As ever, please refer to our User Guide for further information!
And this how The Shortlist looks for this Tuesday...
...with all three at least worth a second glance and we do still also have our daily list of 'free' racecards, which are as follows...
- 3.55 Limerick
- 6.15 Wolverhampton
- 6.30 Chelmsford
- 7.00 Chelmsford
- 8.15 Wolverhampton
...and whilst I do normally try to 'marry up' the free feature with the free racecards, Alafdhal's race looks a bit of a stinker if truth be told, but the one before it looks better as it's as highly-rated a contest as you'll find in the UK on Tuesday. It is, of course, the 6.30 Chelmsford, an 8-runner, Class 3, 3yo+ A/W handicap over left-handed 6f on standard polytrack...
None of these managed to win their last race, but Baldomero has made the frame in his last two and in four of five despite not winning, whilst all bar bottom-weight Night On Earth (10 successive defeats) of his rivals have managed to win at least one of their last six.
Most of the field are dropping in class, as only Probe, Celsius and Night On Earth raced (unplaced) at Class 3 last time around, the others all dropp a class from Class 2, except Zaman Jemil who ran in a Listed race at Redcar. That was 37 days ago and most of the field have raced in the last two to ten weeks, but Celsius could be excused for needing a run after a six-month absence.
Probe has won over this trip at Newmarket and Wolverhampton with Zaman Jemil also having two wins at 6f; Newcastle & Thirsk, whilst Justcallmepete and Above are both course and distance winners with former also successful at Lingfield and Southwell over 6f on the A/W, as seen on Instant Expert...
...where Justcallmepete looks to be the best suited and probable market leader Baldomero seems to be all at sea. Mind you, he has only won 2 of 30 career starts (2/20 on the A/W), so I'm hoping his place stats paint him in a better light...
...and indeed they do. That said, on basic percentage terms he's only fourth on going, third on class and fourth on trip and I think Justcallmepete still looks better suited to these expected conditions. This pair will emerge from opposite ends of the stalls with our Draw Analyser suggesting that Baldomero is at the better end of the draw...
That doesn't mean that Justcallmepete can't/won't win, of course. He might well be one of the 9.38% of those drawn higher than 7 who go on to win here and if he has the right pace profile to win, then he'll have every chance. The Pace Analyser for those nearly-300 races above won't come as a surprise to many of you...
...nor, I suppose, will this pace/draw heat map...
So, the question is, who will take the races by the horns and go for it from the off? Well, if we look at this field's most recent efforts, you've have to say that Baldomero is far more likley to be up with the pace than Justcallmepete...
...and the resulting pace draw heat map...
...also says Baldomero.
Summary
Baldomero is probably the best runner in the race, he scored well on the Instant Expert place stats, is ideally drawn and seems to have the right pace profile for the contest and that's probably why he's the current (Monday 3.25pm) 11/4 favourite, but I can't be backing him at that price. Yes, he's consistent with 11 top-3 finishes from his last 20 outings, but he's a consistent loser, too, having failed to win any of those twenty races. I know that all runs come to an end at some point, but 11/4 about a horse on a 20-race losing streak, a 1 from 12 record on standard A/W, 0 from 6 at Class 3 and the same over 6f just doesn't scream value to me. I know he was only beaten by a short head last time out, but he's been raised 2lbs for that defeat, so I'll leave him.
Justcallmepete makes more sense to me at 9/2 which is probably a fair price. Yes, he's going to need a bit of luck overcoming pace and draw stats, but he has two good runs (a win and a runner-up) here over course and distance, so he knows what this place is all about and I'd rather back him than the fav.
Of the rest Zaman Jemil is interesting, a win and two places from his last five, he makes a polytrack debut here down in both class and trip and boasting a 1 from 1 record on the A/W so far, might well be involved in the shake-up, especially if towed along by Baldomero early doors.
Other Recent Posts by This Author:
- Tix Picks, Saturday 04/01/25
- Tix Picks, Friday 03/01/25
- Tix Picks, Thursday 02/01/25
- Tix Picks, Tuesday 31/12/24
- Tix Picks, Monday 30/12/24
