Racing Insights, Tuesday 25/06/24

[Please refer to our User Guide for further information] and here is Tuesday's Shortlist...

...where Huelgoat is the one of most immediate/obvious interest. As ever, the daily feature is complemented by a selection of fully functional racecards opened up to all readers and for Tuesday they cover...

• 2.17 Beverley
• 3.00 Newton Abbot
• 3.30 Newton Abbot
• 4.00 Newton Abbot

I suspect Huelgoat will go off very short in a novice hurdle, a type of race I'm not keen on and the other two 'free' NH cards look like poor races too. The beverley race is a 6-runner affair for maiden fillies, so I'll swerve that too on a day where the racing is that poor that the 'best' and most valuable race of the day is a Class 4 contest worth less than £7500 to the winner. It's the 6.05 Newbury, a 7-runner, Class 4, 3yo+ flat handicap over a left-handed 1m4f on good to firm ground and here's how they'll line up...

...where Raintown, a winner of two of his last six races is the only LTO winner, although top-weight Entrancement and Marhaba Million were both runners-up. The latter is a three-race maiden and Eben Zaabeel has yet to make the frame in any of his four outings, whilst In From The Cold and Wahraan are both on losing streaks of nine races, although six of the former's nine losses were actually over hurdles.

Sole filly and top-weight Entrancement is the only class mover today, as she drops down one level from a defeat by just a nose at Goodwood a month ago and although she's up 4lbs for that run, her victor, Ayyab was only beaten by 3.75 lengths in a Listed race at Pontefract yesterday (Sunday). Our two maidens, Marhaba Million and Eben Zaabeel both make handicap debuts today with the former wearing a visor for the first time.

This pair of maidens are both aged 3 and as such receive a very healthy 14lbs weight allowance for this contest, which should help their cause on handicap debut. Marhaba Million last ran just over seven weeks ago with only In from The Cold (112 days off) rested for longer, as most of the field have raced in the last two to three weeks.

Raintown is 2 from 2 over this trip at Lingfield (where he is 4 from 5 overall), but has failed to win any of eight starts on turf, but Graham won here over course and distance four races ago and has also scored over this trip at Salisbury. This pair aside, we're a little short on course and/or distance wins, as verified by Instant Expert...

...where Graham marginally looks the most suited of a bunch that really don't have much to crow about under today's conditions. That said, he hasn't fired at Class 4, but track and trip will be right up his street. Entrancement and Raintown look to be the best of the rest, but it's admittedly a pretty low bar. That said, these three runners are the pick at Class 5, too and both Graham and Entrancement made the frame on their only Class 3 outing (LTO for Entrancement as documented above).

Graham has been allocated stall 1, but past races suggest that drawn in stalls 5 and higher may have a bit of an advantage...

...but I wouldn't say that it was impossible to win from a low draw. There's not much to be gained from the pace stats from those races above...

...which suggests there's not really a right or a wrong way of approaching this race and the fact that any draw and any running style can win here is reflected in our pace/draw heat map where 7 of the 12 possible permutations are shown in green, suggesting Newbury's 1m4f trip is a fair one and the 'better' horses should be the winners...

Summary

When the pace, draw and pace/draw stats don't really identify a runner of interest and there's little help from Instant Expert, i tend to refer back to recent form and also gut feeling about who I think are the better runners in the pack.

The two maidens/handicap debutants could be dangerous with a huge weight allowance, but they're largely unknown quantities although Marhaba Million's results have been the better of the two and that's probably why Hills had him at 11/4 at 2.50pm on Monday, but those odds don't excite me.

The interest for me here in the class dropper Entrancement, who was only narrowly beaten last time out and a similar run here might make his 6/1 ticket look generous, whilst current 8/1 outsider and LTO winner Raintown could well be good enough for a place if finally transferring some of his recent excellent form to the Flat.

That said, this isn't a race to invest too heavily in on a day of pretty mediocre fayre.