Racing Insights, Wednesday 14/02/23
Apologies for the lack of RI service over the last couple of days, I had to take some time way to deal with a family issue, but I'm back now and Wednesday's free Geegeez GOLD feature, the Trainer Statistics (TS) report is, in fact, four reports in one. It contains information on a trainer’s recent form, and their longer term course form. For each of 14 day, 30 day, course one year, and course five year, users can filter by runs, wins, places, win profit/loss and each way profit/loss. Clicking on any row in the report will reveal the runners that trainer has entered on the day in question, and clicking on the runner row will open that race in a new tab.
HINT: It can help to cross refer the profit figures of the trainer with their win/place percentage. A few big priced winners can mean a trainer has a high profit number but a low strike rate. You may need to be very patient, and a bit lucky, to come out in front this way!
[ Please refer to our User Guide for further information ]
In addition to the free daily feature, we always open up a number of racecards to non-Gold subscribers and for Wednesday, they are...
- 3.50 Fontwell
- 4.10 Dundalk
- 6.30 Kempton
- 7.30 Kempton
14-day form...
course 1-year form...
...and with Simon Crisford's Inverlochy above also running in one of our free races, I really should take a look at the 6.30 Kempton, a 7-runner, Class 4, 4yo+ fillies' A/W handicap over a right handed mile on standard to slow polytrack...
Not only is our featured runner Inverlochy the only LTO winner, she comes here on a hat-trick and and has four wins and a half-length defeat as a runner-up from her last five runs, making her the clear form pick. Dayzee made the frame last time around and has three wins and three places from her last seven, whilst Crystal Casque and Incrimination are both two from seven. Lady Lavinia won five races ago, but Measured Moments and Smiling Sunflower are winless in seven and eleven respectively, although the former has been a runner-up in four of those seven losses.
Lots of class movement today, as only Incrimination ran at Class 4 last time out. Dayzee drops two classes whilst Crystal Casque and Measured Moments are both down one level with Inverlochy, Lady Lavinia and Smiling Sunflower all up one class. The latter is turned back out quickest too, just five days after her last run, but Lady Lavinia has had nine weeks rest. Measured Moments has been off for 53 days, but the remainder have all raced in the last 10 to 25 days.
Dayzee and Inverlochy have both won over a mile on other tracks whilst Lady Lavinia and Smiling Sunflower have both scored here over 7f at Kempton before with Crystal Casque our sole course and distance winner, having done so just over a year ago off 9lbs lower than today, which brings us nicely to Instant Expert, our overview of past performances under similar conditions...
...where Crystal Casque looks like she might struggle to win, based on those win percentages above. Dayzee seems to have proven herself at Class 4 and Inverlochy is 3 from 5 at the trip whilst Lady Lavinia's Class 4 win here over 7f in January '23 has made her figures look good. If we then look at the place stats from the same races...
...you can make more of a case for Crystal Casque to run well in defeat, but I'd be wanting to discard the last two on the card, Measure Moments and Smiling Sunflower. They're drawn almost at polar ends of the stalls and our draw analyser suggests that whilst there's not a huge bias from a win perspective, those drawn lower do tend to make the frame most often...
However, the pace is a different matter, as there's a distinct bias here that says the further forward a horse runs, the greater the chance of winning or making the frame...
Quite a few have been keen to get on with things of late, none more so than our featured runner Inverlochy...
Her ungraded run three starts ago should also be scored a 4, as the race report reads...led, ridden over 1f out, headed towards finish... so with a 4-race average pace score of 3.50, I'd expect her to set the pace.
Summary
No surprises to read that I think the one to beat is our featured runner, Inverlochy. Her yard do well here at Kempton, she's the form horse, she scored well on Instant Expert, is drawn halfway along the stall and is likely to lead early doors. All of which points to another big run and her current (3.50pm) 9/4 price with Hills (only book open) seems pretty fair, I though she might have been a bit shorter.
Dayzee might well be the one to chase her home; she's also in decent nick, she's down two classes after finishing third over 1m2f, she's proven at class and trip and is draw in stall 2. She also likes to get on with things and would be my second choice here. Sadly she's the 7/2 second favourite, so there's no E/W play there for me, as I like to bet at 8/1 or bigger with E/W bets. Only the 12/1 Lady Lavinia is higher than 8's but if you can get on her with Bet365, Skybet, Coral or Betfred who all pay three places, she might be worth a little tickle.
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