Tix Picks, Tuesday 05/11/24

No post yesterday (Monday), sorry, I was called away to deal with a family matter at 0730 that ended up taking most of the day to resolve, but we go again now for Tuesday, where the UK placepots can be played via Tix at Newcastle, Redcar, Sedgefield and Warwick.

But, what is Tix?

A video explainer can be found here.

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A few more pointers can be found in these articles:

https://www.geegeez.co.uk/exotic-betting-multi-race-bets-part-1/

https://www.geegeez.co.uk/exotic-betting-multi-race-bets-part-2/

Today's pools

Today's UK meetings, pools and minimum guarantees are as follows...

The going is expected to be soft at Redcar, let's head there for six races beginning with...

Race 1 @ 12.15, an 11-runner, Class 5, 2yo Novice Stakes over 7f...

Four of this eleven have yet to race so far and of those who have, Binraheer's course and distance win a month ago on soft ground is the highlight and he drops in class today. Wizard of Odds also won on his last Turf run, landing a maiden on good ground at Down Royal back in July, whilst Magellan Cloud drops back a furlong and is down three classes after a decent effort to finish third at York on soft ground 24 days ago.

Of the newcomers, Lord Capulet is the most interesting, he's a half brother to Rosallion, a dual Group 1 winner this summer and his dam is an unraced sister to Group 2 winner Ostilio. He holds an entry to next year's Irish 2000 Guineas and I think I'll take (6) Lord Capulet here along with (1) Binraheer and (7) Magellan Cloud from the opener.

Race 2 @ 12.50, an 8-runner, Class 5, 2yo Nursery over 1m...

Say What You See absolutely bolted up on his nursery debut at Newcastle four days ago, coming home eight lengths clear and is probably well in at the weights here despite a 6lbs penalty (he'll go up by more, I think), whilst Law Degree has finished 3313 in his last four outings, including a soft ground win at Ripon in September and a very good third last out at Doncaster two classes higher than today.

Al Waseela could only manage 6th of 10 at Newcastle after being raised 6lbs for a win at Yarmouth which followed 2 narrow defeats (both by a neck) as a runner-up at Chelmsford and Leicester. She clearly has some ability, but a mark of 64 might be beyond her right now and my shortlist is completed by Aye Up Lass who ran really well when facing soft ground for the first time a fortnight ago, staying on to finish 3rd of 9, less than two lengths off the pace.

(2) Law Degree has won two of four and placed once on soft ground, so he's in with (1) Say What You See after that easy win LTO and with Al Waseela looking anchored by the assessor, I'll add (4) Aye Up Lass to the other two picks.

Race 3 @ 1.25, a 7-runner, Class 5, 3yo+ Handicap over 1m6f...

King's Scholar has looked like needing further for a while and was a ready winner by over 4 lengths when upped to 1m4f at Catterick (soft) last time out. He seemed to have plenty left and should handle the extra quarter mile here no problem as he drops in class. Gastronomy was third, but possibly found 2m½f a bit much at Newcastle last time out and will prefer the switch back to turf, where he has a win (here over course and distance) and two places from his last four runs, all at today's trip.

Bottom-weight Red Derek has made the frame in each of his last two outings and loves soft (or worse) ground finishing 3271223 on his last seven on soft/heavy ground. He doesn't win often (2/45!) and is up in class, but will love the going and receivers bundles of weight all round. Kitsune Power drops in class here and was 3rd of 8 at Ayr recently on his last turf run two classes higher than today and di win over today's trip at Class 4 in the summer.

Our pace/draw heat map suggests a potentially falsely run race which will suit Kitsune Power, Gastronomy and King's Scholar from my shortlist...

...and all four show well on Instant Expert...

...but with reservations over Gastronomy on soft ground, I'm taking (2) Kitsune Power, (3) King's Scholar & (7) Red Derek here.

Race 4 @ 2.00, an 8-runner, Class 3, 3yo+ Handicap over 1m2f...

On form alone, I'm drawn initially towards Liberty Coach, who is 112 in his last three and he has a 3lbs weight allowance as a 3yo, as does Deboras Dream who had finished in the first three home in 8 of his 11 starts (3 wins) before only managing 5th of 8 over a mile here last time out and I fear the step up to 1m2f won't help today.

Loyal Touch never got involved on heavy ground at Nottingham three weeks ago, but did win at Pontefract over this trip on his penultimate outing, whilst both Real Terms and Poets Dawn were recently runners-up. Low draws do well here so that's good news for Debora's Dream, Have Secret and Liberty Coach, whilst those willing to get on with things do get rewarded, so that's a positive for Debora's Dream, Liberty Coach and Poet's Dawn with our pace/draw heat map looking like this...

Instant Expert points to Loyal Touch, Liberty Coach, Bust A Move and Poet's Dawn having conditions in their favour

...so I'm definitely with (5) Liberty Coach here and I think I'll supplement the pick with (2) Debora's Dream & (8) Poet's Dawn in what looks a pretty open race.

Race 5 @ 2.34, a 10-runner, Class 6, 3yo+ Handicap over 6f...

No LTO winners here, but Belsito, Thornaby Pearl, White Umbrella and Blue Jay Way all finished in the first three home. As you'd expect over 6f, those on the front end do well here, highlighting the chances of...

...whilst these draw stats...

...could be good news for...

...whilst Instant Expert says...

...giving me on countback (2) Eldeyaar, (3) Belsito and (4) Thornaby Pearl in another race where you could make a case for three or four more.

Race 6 @ 3.09, a 9-runner, Class 5, 3yo+ Handicap over 7f...

Again, none of these managed to win last time out, but fast-finisher 3yo Pals Batallion won two starts ago, whilst Red Mirage, Temper Trap and Ey Up It's Jazz all had top-three finishes last time.

Temper Trap has been running consistently well and in the last three months has finished 2221142 with wins on both soft and heavy ground. Bottom weight Ey Up It's Jazz hasn't been quite as successful, but has still made the frame five times in the same timeframe with results reading 2428232. Both of these in-form runners drop in class here, as does top weight Red Mirage and Temper trap is the only previous course and distance winner in the pack.

Pals Batallion has the pick of the draw in stall 1, but Ey Up It's Jazz and Red Mirage are the likely pace-setters

...with the former having the best form under these conditions over the last two years..

I've got to take both (7) Temper Trap and (9) Ey Up It's Jazz here and I've a slight preference for (1) Red Mirage over Pals Batallion.

*

All of which gives me...

Leg 1: (1) Binraheer, (6) Lord Capulet & (7) Magellan Cloud

Leg 2: (1) Say What You See, (2) Law Degree & (4) Aye Up Lass

Leg 3: (2) Kitsune Power, (3) King's Scholar & (7) Red Derek

Leg 4: (2) Debora's Dream, (5) Liberty Coach & (8) Poet's Dawn

Leg 5: (2) Eldeyaar, (3) Belsito and (4) Thornaby Pearl

Leg 6: (1) Red Mirage, (7) Temper Trap & (9) Ey Up It's Jazz

...and here's how I'd play them, whilst trying to stay close to a nominal £20 total stake...

Good Luck!
Chris

Other Recent Posts by This Author:

• Tix Picks, Wednesday 04/12/24
• Tix Picks, Tuesday 03/12/24
• Tix Picks, Monday 02/12/24
• Tix Picks, Saturday 30/11/24
• Tix Picks, Thursday 28/11/24