Tix Picks, Wednesday 06/11/24

Wednesday's UK placepots can be played via Tix at Chepstow, Kempton, Musselburgh & Nottingham

But, what is Tix?

A video explainer can be found here.

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A few more pointers can be found in these articles:

https://www.geegeez.co.uk/exotic-betting-multi-race-bets-part-1/

https://www.geegeez.co.uk/exotic-betting-multi-race-bets-part-2/

Today's pools

Today's UK meetings, pools and minimum guarantees are as follows...

The biggest pot is at Kempton, but I don't much fancy the card, so I'm heading North to Musselburgh for six races on good to soft ground starting with...

Race 1 @ 12.35, a 9-runner, Class 6, 3yo+ handicap over 5f...

Sole LTO winner Profiteer comes here on a hat-trick after a pair of soft ground wins at Pontefract in the last month and whilst he has been raised 3lbs for his latest win, he does drop two classes here. We looked at (and selected) Kyber Crystal at Catterick eight days and she obliged finishing second on soft ground and she has now made the frame in six of her last nine, winning twice.

Sixcor was a course and distance winner on his last turf outing, but he's now 6lbs higher and needs to bounce back from an indifferent run at Newcastle last time out. Mrs Bagerran should know this track well, her last six races have all been over this track and trip producing a win and four other top-three finishes, whilst Royal Duke was a course and distance runner-up here in September, before going on to win here in early October. He seemed to fade late on last time out, though and that might have just been because he'd had four races in less than a month, so his short 23-day break might help here.

Instant Expert leaves the door open for several of them here...

Somewhat unusually for a straight 5f, there does seem to be a bit of a draw bias going on here...

...which is good for Kyber Crystal, Profiteer and Zaphea, whilst as you'd expect, early pace is absolutely key here...

And the pace/draw heat map seals (1) Profiteer & (7) Mrs Bagerran as Tix picks here

...to which I'll also add the consistent (5) Kyber Crystal

Race 2 @ 1.05, an 11-runner, Class 2, 2yo maiden over 7f...

So, all bar Princess Pw have had a run. Master Technician has made the frame in each of his last two starts, as has Storm The Dug with the latter doing so over course and distance on both occasions. Tattie Bogle was very popular in the market on debut at Southwell a week ago, going off as a 5/2 fav, but ran into a really promising type and had to settle for second best. That said, it was a good effort and a similar one puts her in contention here.

And to be honest, they're the three that I think are most likely to succeed here. (2) Master Technician edges it on form and has the high draw, (3) Storm The Dug has ran well twice over course and distance & (8) Tattie Bogle showed plenty to like on debut and is likely to race prominently.

Race 3 @ 1.35, an 8-runner, Class 5, 4yo+ handicap over 1m...

Shimmering Sands was a runner-up at Southwell last time out, unluckily bumping into a progressive 3yo winning for the third time in six starts, but Shimmering has made the frame in each of his ,last four (3232) and runs off an unchanged mark. Bint Al Karama races for just the second time but was very comfortable when scoring by more than 3 lengths in a seller here over 1m1f five weeks ago. She pretty much made all that day and a similar run should be plenty here.

Code Purple is 13172 from his last five with both wins coming on this track (7f & 1m1f) and he was second of ten here over 7f just over three weeks ago. Ayr Poet won over course and distance on his last turf run, whilst Beltane and Cisco Disco were both runners-up last time out. So, plenty have chances here and most of those mentioned score well on Instant Expert...

The horse in stall 8 is now a non-runner, so Shimmering Sands & Bint Al Karama get the highest draw and of those with more than one run under their belts, course specialist Code Purple has the highest average pace score...

...so it's (boringly predictably) (1) Shimmering Sands, (2) Bint Al Karama & (4) Code Purple for me here. Ayr Poet might put a shift in, but does need to bounce back from some poor efforts of late, even if he did win over C&D two starts ago.

Race 4 @ 2.05, a 4-runner, Class 4, 3yo handicap over 1m...

Silent Move's last race at this level saw him win at Haydock back in May and he can be forgiven for finishing in mid-division back there next/last time out stepped up in class. he ran well for much of the race before weakening late on. A rest, a drop back in class and quicker ground could well push him back into the winners' enclosure here. He's also proven at class/trip.

Spun To Gold looks the most vulnerable here having been 8th of 13, 10th of 13 and then last of ten in his last three, so we'll overlook him. Quiet Resolve is Silent Move's stablemate and looks like the second string here. He has been third in each of his last two, but both on the tapeta at Southwell, a surface where he seems to fare best as his turf form reads 5805.

Bottom weight Etretat is the only LTO winner here, but that too was on the A/W (Chelmsford) and not only is he up 4lbs for the win, he also has no 5lb claimer on his back here, but that said he does have wily Joe Fanning in the saddle, he still gets weight all round and was a half-length runner-up on his last turf run.

Recent pace scores look like this...

...and whilst I could just take all three for safety, I'm just going to go with (1) Silent Move & (4) Etretat here.

Race 5 @ 2.35, a 12-runner, Class 6, 3yo+ handicap over 7f...

A pretty open affair here with several in good nick. Inanna drops in class and steps up in trip after finishing 7th of 11 here over 5f three weeks ago, but prior to that run she had finished 321212 in her previous six. Darbucks comes here on a hat-trick after wins at Ayr and Redcar and although up 3lbs, talented claimer Kaiya Fraser negates that rise.

Roman Harry (Laytown, 7f) and Golden Valour (here over track/trip) both won last time out and the latter has made the frame in each of his last three, whilst Rebeccas Girl might be better than her last of nine at Hamilton six weeks ago might suggest. She was forced out wide and got no run, but had finished 2123 in her pervious four runs and has been eased a pound here and will wear first-time cheekpieces.

Meanwhile, my list of runner with at least two greens on Instant Expert for going, class, course and distance includes four of those mentioned above...

Golden Valour & Rebeccas Girl are also drawn high and the latter features prominently on the recent pace averages...

It's a tough one to call here, but I'm trying to cover a few bases by taking four runners ie all three LTO winners (6) Darbucks, (7) Roman Harry & (8) Golden Valour. I'm then adding (10) Rebeccas Girl at the expense of Inanna, because I think there's more value in the former and Purple Martini's recent form is a turn-off, but she has it within her to go well here.

Race 6 @ 3.10, an 8-runner, Class 5, 3yo+ handicap over 1m4f...

Tilsitt was third of twelve at Ayr four weeks ago and he's the only runner in this race to have made the frame last time out. He was half a length in front of Savrola that day, who had to come from a long way off the pace to get anywhere near. Savrolas has always looked like needing further than 1m2f and this step up in trip might suit him.

Spartan Warrior was only fifth of eight at Haydock when last seen, but had won his previous two. The runner-up that day at Haydock has since finished 2212 in four subsequent starts and the third placed horse went on to win at Yarmouth next time out, so the race is working out well. Elsewhere Rory The Cat would be of interest now that he drops back in trip. He was beaten by less than 4 lengths over 2m here last month, but won here over 1m6f in August and was a runner-up beaten by just a neck over the same track/trip in early October.

And it's Spanish Hustle, Spartan Warrior and Rory The Cat who have the best two-year records under today's conditions...

...and with this trio also looking good on our pace/draw heat map...

...it's (1) Spanish Hustle, (3) Spartan Warrior & (6) Rory the Cat who find themselves on my Tix ticket builder.

*

All of which gives me...

Leg 1: (1) Profiteer, (5) Kyber Crystal & (7) Mrs Bagerran

Leg 2: (2) Master Technician, (3) Storm The Dug & (8) Tattie Bogle

Leg 3: (1) Shimmering Sands, (2) Bint Al Karama & (4) Code Purple

Leg 4: (1) Silent Move & (4) Etretat

Leg 5: (6) Darbucks, (7) Roman Harry, (8) Golden Valour & (10) Rebeccas Girl

Leg 6: (1) Spanish Hustle, (3) Spartan Warrior & (6) Rory the Cat

...and here's how I'd play them, whilst trying to stay close to a nominal £20 total stake...

Good Luck!
Chris

Other Recent Posts by This Author:

• Tix Picks, Wednesday 04/12/24
• Tix Picks, Tuesday 03/12/24
• Tix Picks, Monday 02/12/24
• Tix Picks, Saturday 30/11/24
• Tix Picks, Thursday 28/11/24