Posts

Stat of the Day, 28th May 2018

Saturday's Runner was...

3.25 Haydock : Heartache @ 9/2 BOG 6th at 6/1 (Close up, pushed along over 1f out, weakened final furlong)

Next up is Monday's...

5.35 Chelmsford :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Your first 30 days for just £1

Spot Lite @ 7/2 BOG 

An 11-runner, Class 6, A/W handicap for 3yo over 5f on polytrack worth £3493 to the winner... 

Why?

This 3 yr old gelding was a winner last time out when scoring at Bath on his first crack at this 5f trip. Now I appreciate that he's making his A/W debut today, but his trainer Rod Millman is a pretty good judge about which of his horses would go well here at Chelmsford, after saddling up 5 winners from 24 (20.8% SR) for profits of 13.83pts (+57.6% ROI) at this venue to date.

Amongst those runners...

  • males are 4/18 (22.2%) for 13.43pts (+74.6%)
  • those last seen 16-25 days earlier are 3/5 (60%) for 15.29pts (+305.8%)
  • this year = 2/3 (66.6%) for 13.7pts (+456.6%)
  • and LTO winners are 1/2 (50%) for 4.41pts (+220.5%)

Speaking of LTO winners, Rod's record with these since the start of 2016 stands at 16 winners from 65 (24.6% SR) for profits of 25.82pts (+39.7% ROI), from which...

  • handicappers are 16/57 (28.1%) for 33.82pts (+59.3%)
  • 3 yr olds are 7/22 (31.8%) for 13.3pts (+60.5%)
  • in 3yo races : 5/17 (29.4%) for 14.2pts (+83.5%)
  • and at Class 6 : 3/7 (42.9%) for 8.4pts (+119.8%)

AND...it's also worth noting that since the start of 2013, Rod MIllman's LTO winners who last ran in the previous 25 days at the same class and distance as their follow-up effort are 7 from 14 (50% SR) for 20.7pts (+147.9% ROI) profit, including of relevance today...

  • handicappers at 7 from 13 (53.9%) for 21.7pts (+166.9%)
  • Class 6 runners at 6 from 9 (66.6%) for 15.64pts (+173.8%)
  • and 3 yr olds are 2 from 3 (66.6%) for 1.05pts (+35.1%)

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Spot Lite @ 7/2 BOG  which was available from Bet365, BetVictor & SunBets at 8.15pm on Sunday. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 5.35 Chelmsford

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 28th May 2018

Saturday's Runner was...

3.25 Haydock : Heartache @ 9/2 BOG 6th at 6/1 (Close up, pushed along over 1f out, weakened final furlong)

Next up is Monday's...

5.35 Chelmsford :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Spot Lite @ 7/2 BOG 

An 11-runner, Class 6, A/W handicap for 3yo over 5f on polytrack worth £3493 to the winner... 

Why?

This 3 yr old gelding was a winner last time out when scoring at Bath on his first crack at this 5f trip. Now I appreciate that he's making his A/W debut today, but his trainer Rod Millman is a pretty good judge about which of his horses would go well here at Chelmsford, after saddling up 5 winners from 24 (20.8% SR) for profits of 13.83pts (+57.6% ROI) at this venue to date.

Amongst those runners...

  • males are 4/18 (22.2%) for 13.43pts (+74.6%)
  • those last seen 16-25 days earlier are 3/5 (60%) for 15.29pts (+305.8%)
  • this year = 2/3 (66.6%) for 13.7pts (+456.6%)
  • and LTO winners are 1/2 (50%) for 4.41pts (+220.5%)

Speaking of LTO winners, Rod's record with these since the start of 2016 stands at 16 winners from 65 (24.6% SR) for profits of 25.82pts (+39.7% ROI), from which...

  • handicappers are 16/57 (28.1%) for 33.82pts (+59.3%)
  • 3 yr olds are 7/22 (31.8%) for 13.3pts (+60.5%)
  • in 3yo races : 5/17 (29.4%) for 14.2pts (+83.5%)
  • and at Class 6 : 3/7 (42.9%) for 8.4pts (+119.8%)

AND...it's also worth noting that since the start of 2013, Rod MIllman's LTO winners who last ran in the previous 25 days at the same class and distance as their follow-up effort are 7 from 14 (50% SR) for 20.7pts (+147.9% ROI) profit, including of relevance today...

  • handicappers at 7 from 13 (53.9%) for 21.7pts (+166.9%)
  • Class 6 runners at 6 from 9 (66.6%) for 15.64pts (+173.8%)
  • and 3 yr olds are 2 from 3 (66.6%) for 1.05pts (+35.1%)

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Spot Lite @ 7/2 BOG  which was available from Bet365, BetVictor & SunBets at 8.15pm on Sunday. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 5.35 Chelmsford

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 24th May 2018

Wednesday's Runner was...

2.30 Ayr : Lilys Prince @ 5/1 3rd at 7/4 (Mid-division, headway over 1f out, kept on inside final furlong)

Next up is Thursday's...

6.10 Chelmsford :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Foie Gras @ 11/4 BOG 

A 9-runner, Class 5, A/W Handicap (4yo+) over 1m on Polytrack worth £4399 to the winner...

Why?

An 8 yr old gelding who has won three times at this track and three times at today's trip. In fact, he actually has three wins and one place from nine efforts over course and distance and has now slipped back to a mark just a pound higher than his last win here.

His trainer Chris Dwyer is 91/571 (15.9% SR) for 163.3pts (+28.6% ROI) in A/W handicaps since the start of 2013, including 29 winners from 163 (17.8%) for 121.2pts (+74.4%) here at Chelmsford.

And of those 163 Chelmsford handicappers...

  • those last seen 10 to 50 days earlier are 24/120 (20%) for 144.8pts (+120.7%)
  • males are 17/101 (16.8%) for 112.7pts (+111.6%)
  • those priced at 5/1 and shorter are 23/61 (37.7%) for 34.4pts (+56.4%)
  • those racing over 7f/1m are 12/54 (22.2%) for 143.6pts (+266%)
  • Class5 runners are 9/43 (20.9%) for 1.04pts (+2.4%)
  • those sent off as favourite are 9/20 (45%) for 4.93pts (+24.65%)
  • and those ridden by today's jockey Lewis Edmunds are 3/9 (33.3%) for 8.8pts (+97.7%)

...and this simple approach gives us...a 1pt win bet on Foie Gras @ 11/4 BOG which was widely available at 6.25pm on Wednesday. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 6.10 Chelmsford

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 26th April 2018

Wednesday's Runner was...

6.55 Lingfield : My Target @ 6/1 BOG 5th at 9/2 (Mid-division on inside, headway chasing leaders over 1f out, weakened well inside final furlong)

Our next runner goes in Thursday's...

8.35 Chelmsford :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Ode To Autumn @ 3/1 BOG

A 5-runner, Class 4,  1m A/W Handicap (3yo) on polytrack worth £7310 to the winner...

Why?

This 3 yr old gelding has won twice and made the fame a further three times from his six starts so far with finishes of 211 on the All-Weather, including 2 wins from 2 over the 1m trip, the most recent being an LTO success 69 days ago.

His trainer, John Gosden, is bang in form, as typified by...

  • 18 winners from 50 (36% SR) in the last 30 days
  • 13 from 37 (35.1%) over the last fortnight
  • and 8 from 20 (40%) over the last week.

On top of this, Johnny's LTO winners are 147/488 (30.1% SR) for 137pts (+28.1% ROI) since 2014, from which...

  • April runners are 35/85 (41.2%) for 50pts (+58.8%)
  • and Class 4 runners are 27/77 (35.1%) for 18.5pts (+24.1%)

Whilst in the same 2014-18 time frame, his runners returning from a break of more than 60 days are 134/487 (27.5% SR) for 87.9pts (+18.1% ROI), including of relevance today...

  • LTO winners : 56/163 (34.4%) for 45.8pts (+28.1%)
  • in April : 54/153 (35.3%) for 33pts (+21.6%)
  • on Polytrack : 37/107 (34.6%) for 16.8pts (+15.7%)
  • over a 1m trip : 32/104 (30.8%) for 75.7pts (+72.8%)
  • at Class 4 : 32/104 (30.8%) for 45.8pts (+44%)
  • and here at Chelmsford : 12/22 (54.6%) for 20.5pts (+93.1%)

And finally for now (!), it's worth noting that this is Mr Gosden's only runner here today and in fact his only runner anywhere all day, and when sending just one handicapper out to a meeting since 2013, he has come home with the prize money on 52 of 199 (26.1% SR) occasions rewarding followers with 47.4pts [profit at an ROI of 23.8%, from which...

  • his only runner all day : 20/89 (22.5%) for 20.7pts (+23.3%)
  • at Chelmsford : 4/12 933.3%) for 8pts (+66.7%)

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Ode To Autumn @ 3/1 BOG which was available from 10Bet, BetVictor, Betway, Coral & SportPesa at 5.50pm on Wednesday, whilst Bet365 were a shade better at 10/3 BOG. In fact 11/4 BOG was still widely available at 8.15am on Thursday, so we should all manage to get on. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 8.35 Chelmsford

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 3rd March 2018

Friday's Result :

4.10 Lingfield : Take The Helm @ 13/2 BOG non-runner (meeting abandoned)

Our 3rd attempt to start the new month comes via Saturday's...

7.15 Chelmsford :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Excellent George @ 3/1 BOG

A Class 4, 6f handicap (4yo+) on polytrack worth £7,310 to the winner...

Why?

More on this in due course...

...but first...a 1pt win bet on Excellent George @ 3/1 BOG which was widely available at 7.25pm on |Friday. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 7.15 Chelmsford

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 22nd February 2018

Wednesday's Result :

5.10 Ludlow : War Creation @ 9/4 BOG PU at 9/2 In touch, weakened before 4 out, tailed off and pulled up before 3 out...

Next up is Thursday's...

5.55 Chelmsford :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Roy's Legacy @ 9/2 BOG

A Class 6, 5f apprentices' handicap sprint on polytrack worth £3,429 to the winner...

Why?

This 9 year old was a winner over this 5f trip at Wolverhampton when last seen 10 days ago, taking his A/W record over the minimum distance to an impressive 15 wins from 61.

His trainer Shaun Harris does well here at Chelmsford, notching up 10 winners from 69 (14.5% SR) for 39.2pts (+56.8% ROI) profit, from which...

  • handicappers are 10/66 (15.2%) for 42.2pts (+63.9%)
  • those who have raced in the previous 30 days are 9/46 (19.6%) for 57pts (+124%)
  • at Class 6 : 8/41 (19.5%) for 49.5pts (+120.7%)
  • at odds of 5/2 to 12/1 : 9/34 (26.5%) for 46.72pts (+137.4%)
  • over 5/6 furlongs : 6/34 (17.6%) for 29.56pts (+86.9%)
  • at this 5f course and distance : 3/15 (20%) for 18.56pts (+123.7%)
  • LTO winners are 4/8 (50%) for 32.3pts (+403.7%)
  • and in apprentice races : 2/4 950%) for 10.73pts (+268.25%)

The above stat about LTO winners, albeit from a small sample size, doesn't really surprise me, as more generally since 2013, Shaun's LTO winners are 23/106 (21.7% SR) for 101pts profit at a very attractive ROI of some 95.3%! And in respect of this race, those 106 runners are...

  • 23/103 (22.3%) for 104pts (+101%) in handicaps
  • 23/97 (23.7%) for 110pts (+113.4%) within 30 days of that LTO win
  • 18/51 (35.3%) for 104.1pts (+204.1%) at Class 6
  • 10/47 (21.3%) for 35.5pts (+75.6%) on the A/W
  • and 10/22 (45.5%) for 56.9pts (+258.6%) over a 5f trip.

...from which : Class 6 handicappers running within 30 days of an LTO win are 18/47 (38.3% SR) for 108.1pts (+230% ROI), including...

  • on the A/W : 8/23 (34.8%) for 71.3pts (+297.1%)
  • over 5f : 9/15 (60%) for 51.4pts (+342.6%)
  • and over 5f on the A/W : 4/8 (50%) for 25.86pts (+323.3%)

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Roy's Legacy @ 9/2 BOG which was widely available at 6.35pm on Wednesday. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 5.55 Chelmsford

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 9th February 2018

Thursday's Result :

7.00 Chelmsford : Fareeq @ 3/1 BOG 2nd at 5/2  Slowly into stride, soon chasing leaders on outside, hung badly left from over 1f out, ran on inside final furlong, went 2nd last strides, no chance with winner...

We continue with Friday's...

4.45 Chelmsford :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Volpone Jelois @ 4/1 BOG

A Class 5, 1m5.5f handicap on Polytrack worth £5,434 to the winner...

Why?

And another fairly simple approach with a 5 yr old gelding, better known as a hurdler. That said, he has made the frame in each of his four non-NH runs, all under today's jockey Megan Nicholls and mainly at Class 5, although he was a runner-up in his sole effort at Class 4 (over 1m6f) suggesting there's a win on the level in him somewhere!

Jockey Megan is 4 from 18 (22.2% SR) for 16.24pts (+90.2% ROI) on the level, riding for her famous father Paul since the start of 2017 and these runners include...

  • over 1m4f to 1m6f : 4/14 (28.6%) for 20.24pts (+144.6%)
  • at Class 5 : 2/6 (33.3%) for 15.48pts (+257.9%)
  • and at Class 5 over 1m4f to 1m6f : 2/3 (66.6%) for 18.48pts (+615.8%)

And further confidence is derived from the yard's recent form, winning 10 of 40 (25% SR) over the past 30 days rising to 8/28 (28.6%) over the last fortnight.

...pointing towards...a 1pt win bet on Volpone Jelois @ 4/1 BOG which was widely available at 6.20pm on Thursday. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 4.45 Chelmsford

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 8th February 2018

Wednesday's Result :

2.25 Chelmsford : Mossys Lodge @ 3/1 BOG WON at 5/1 Slowly into stride, soon handy, went 2nd over 1f out, challenged inside final furlong, led towards finish...

We continue with Thursday's...

7.00 Chelmsford :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Fareeq @ 3/1 BOG

A Class 6, 6f handicap on Polytrack worth £3,249 to the winner...

Why?

A winner 18 days ago over course and distance under tonight's jockey Jason Watson.

Over the last 20 days, trainer Charlie Wallis is 4/15 926.7%) for 11.98pts (+79.9% ROI) whilst jockey Jason is 2 from 4 (50%) for 14.31pts (+357.8%) in the last week alone.

Charlie's LTO winners are 6/27 922.2% SR) for 9.66pts (+35.8% ROI)

And over the last three years, his runners who won LTO 1-25 days earlier at the same class & distance went on to win 3 of 9 933.3% SR) for 8.27pts (+91.9% ROI) with a 2 from 2 record here at Chelmsford yielding 8pts at an ROI of 400%!

And this rather simplistic approach...

...gives us...a 1pt win bet on Fareeq @ 3/1 BOG which was available from Bet365, Betfair, Paddy Power & Betbright at 7.15pm on Wednesday. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 7.00 Chelmsford

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 7th February 2018

Tuesday's Result :

3.05 Southwell : Foolaad @ 11/4 BOG WON at 11/10 Always prominent, every chance over 1f out, led well inside final furlong, stayed on well to win by a neck...

We continue with Wednesday's...

2.25 Chelmsford :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Mossys Lodge @ 3/1 BOG

A Class 7, 7f handicap on Polytrack worth £2,264 to the winner...

Why?

Trainer Anthony Carson's A/W handicappers are 13 from 87 (14.9% SR) for 73.56pts (+84.6% ROI) since the start of 2016 and these include of relevance today...

  • over 7f : 7/38 (18.4%) for 43.77pts (+115.2%)
  • ridden by William Carson : 6/37 (16.2%) for 49.09pts (+132.7%)
  • January to March : 5/35 (14.3%) for 26.88pts (+76.8%)
  • in fields of 9-10 runners : 6/28 (21.4%) for 77.01pts (+275%)
  • 5 yr olds are 4/17 (23.5%) for 16.57pts (+97.5%)
  • those beaten by a neck to 2 lengths LTO are 3/14 (21.4%) for 24.27pts (+173.4%)
  • those finishing 3rd LTO are 4/11 (36.4%) for 41.37pts (+376.1%)

...whilst more generally since 2013 in UK A/W handicaps, horses running over 6f to 1m2f just 2 to 5 days after a win or a defeat by less than 3 lengths are 222/863 (25.7% SR) for 238.11pts (+27.6%), from which...

  • those last seen 5 days ago : 84/307 (27.4%) for 108.1pts (+35.2%)
  • over 7f : 63/248 (25.4%) for 73.69pts (+29.7%)
  • 5 yr olds are 40/154 (26%) for 46.23pts (+30%)

AND...5 yr olds racing over 7f, 5 days after their last outing in which they either won or were beaten by less than 3 lengths = 5/15 (33.3% SR) for 17.82pts (+118.8% ROI)

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Mossys Lodge @ 3/1 BOG which was available from Bet365 & BetVictor at 6.35pm on Tuesday. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 2.25 Chelmsford

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 21st December 2017

Wednesday's Result :

7.40 Kempton : Black Prince @ 7/2 BOG 4th at 5/2 Prominent, every chance 2f out unable to quicken inside final furlong.

Next up is Thursday's...

7.45 Chelmsford :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Choral Clan @ 3/1 BOG

A Class 5, 3yo+ Handicap over 1m2f on Polytrack worth £5,175 to the winner...

...and a very consistent 6 yr old gelding who has made the frame in each of his last five runs, all on the A/W and at trips ranging from 1m to 1m3f.

He was a winner last time out, getting home by a clear two lengths three weeks ago taking his A/W record to 6 wins from 31 (19.4% SR) with all six wins coming from 27 rides (22.2% SR) under today's jockey Jack Mitchell with a 2 from 2 record in small fields.

Trainer Brendan Powell's record in Class 5 to 7, A/W handicappers racing over 7f to 1m6f on Polytrack and Fibresand stands at 23/162 (14.2% SR) for 206.3pts (+127.3% ROI) over the last five years, including...

  • 4 to 6 yr olds @ 18/102 (17.7%) for 192.8pts (+189%)
  • males are 15/96 (15.6%) for 76.1pts (+79.3%)
  • from November to February : 16/89 (18%) for 237pts (+266.3%)
  • those who last raced 11-25 days ago : 14/69 (20.3%) for 169.9pts (+246.2%)
  • and those ridden by Jack Mitchell are 2/9 (22.2%) for 51.6pts (+572.9%)

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Choral Clan @ 3/1 BOG which was widely available at 6.20pm on Wednesday. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 7.45 Chelmsford

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 17th November 2017

Thursday's Result :

7.25 Chelmsford : Miracle Garden @ 7/2 BOG 5th at 9/4 Keen tracked leaders, ridden 2f out, no extra inside final furlong.

Next up is Friday's...

8.15 Chelmsford :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Choral Clan @ 10/3 BOG

A Class 5, 3yo+, A/W Handicap over a mile and a quarter on Polytrack worth £5,175 to the winner.

And a 6yr old gelding whose career record of 5/43 is OK, but just OK. However, all 5 wins have come from 28 runs on Polytrack, from which he's 5/25 (20% SR) for 14.73pts (+58.9% ROI) under today's jockey Jack Mitchell and those runs include...

  • at odds of 5/2 to 13/2 : 4/15 (26.7%) for 9.49pts (+63.3%)
  • off a mark of 61 to 70: 3/8 (37.5%) for 19.46pts (+243.3%)
  • after a break of just 12-18 days : 3/5 (60%) for 22.46pts (+449.2%)
  • and 2/2 (100%) for 10.22pts (+511%) when all three of the above happened.

He is trained by Brendan Powell, whose A/W handicappers are 29/247 (11.7% SR) for 159.7pts (+64.7% ROI) since the start of 2013, including...

  • 3 to 7 yr olds are 27/216 (142.5%) for 173.7pts (+80.4%)
  • at Class 5 to 7 : 28/211 (13.3%) for 192.8pts (+91.4%)
  • and 3 to 7 yr olds at Class 5 to 7 are 26/185 (14.1%) for 201.8pts (+109.1%)

And of those above 185 runners...

  • on Polytrack : 21/143 (14.7%) for 173.4pts (+121.2%)
  • 1-25 days since last run : 20/106 (18.9%) for 178.2pts (+168.1%)
  • and on Polytrack, 1-25 days since last run : 16/81 (19.8% SR) for 144.2pts (+178%)

And finally (!) from these 81, 3-7 yo, C 5-7, 1-25 dslr Poly runners...

  • 11-25 dslr = 13/61 (21.3%) for 130.6pts (+214.1%)
  • males are 12/52 (23.1%) for 77.1pts (+148.2%)
  • Class 5= 6/33 (18.2%) for 35.07pts (+106.3%)
  • at odds of EVS to 8/1 : 10/31 (32.3%) for 30.4pts (+97.9%)
  • top 5 finish LTO = 7/29 (24.1%) for 12pts (+41.3%)
  • previous course winners are 5/19 (26.3%) for 11.76pts (+61.9%)
  • and in November : 5/13 (38.5%) for 99.7pts (+766.9%)

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Choral Clan @ 10/3 BOG which was available from SkyBet at 5.55pm on Thursday. Only 4 firms had priced this up when I went to press. Betfair & Paddy Power offer 3/1 BOG, whilst Bet365 offer 7/2 BOG, so I've taken the middle option. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 8.15 Chelmsford

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 16th November 2017

Wednesday's Result :

2.50 Bangor : Midnight Tour @ 4/1 BOG 3rd at 7/1 In touch, headway 3 out, chased leaders next, kept on same pace closing stages, beaten by 2.75 lengths.

Next up is Thursday's...

7.25 Chelmsford :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Miracle Garden @ 7/2 BOG

A Class 5, 3yo+, A/W Handicap over a mile on Polytrack worth £5,175 to the winner.

Featuring a 5 yr old gelding who arrives here in decent nick having finished 132 in his last three outings and was only held off by a neck last time out. That was here at Chelmsford a week ago over 7f when staying on well and finishing strongest.

The winning line came fractionally too soon for him that day, so I expect the extra furlong to help him here in his bid to improve an already decent looking return of 5 wins from 22 (22.7% SR) on the A/W, including...

  • 5 wins & 4 places from 13 at Classes 5 & 6
  • 4 wins & 3 places from 7 in September to November
  • 2 wins & 3 places from 6 on Polytrack
  • and 2 wins and a place from four 12/13 runner races.

His trainer, Ian Williams, has had 8 winners from 27 (29.6% SR) runners in Class 5/6 contests here at Chelmsford to date and a simple £10 bet on each would have produced £92.10 profit, not earth shattering, but (a) enough for a night out and more importantly (b) an ROI of 34.1%!

Of these 27 lower grade runners here...

  • males are 8/23 (34.8%) for 13.21pts (+57.4%)
  • at trips of 7 to 10 furlongs : 7/20 (35%) for 4.09pts (+20.45%)
  • finished 2nd, 3rd or 4th LTO : 6/11 (54.5%) for 10.54pts (+95.8%)

AND...his lower grade males running over 7 to 10 furlongs here after a losing top 4 finish LTO are 6/9 (66.6% SR) for 12.54pts (+139.4%)

Yet, for as impressive as the above numbers might be, they do lack the usual SotD meatiness of sample size, so  I'll divert you to the fact that this one is turned back out pretty quickly after last Thursday's defeat, because this is one of Ian Williams' preferred methods, as since the start of 2011, his runners who have rested for less than 10 days are 107/436 (24.5% SR) for 147.1pts (+33.7% ROI), of which...

  • handicappers are 93/356 (26.1%) for 185.7pts (+52.2%)
  • on the A/W : 38/178 (21.4%) for 109.7pts (+61.6%)
  • and in A/W handicaps : 33/153 (21.6%) for 115.5pts (+75.5%)

...and from the above 153 quickly turned around A/W handicappers...

  •  those running on Polytrack are 27/111 (24.3%) for 87pts (+78.4%)
  • those finishing 2nd, 3rd or 4th LTO are 21/73 (28.8%) for 34.8pts (+47.7%)
  • those racing against 11 or 12 opponents are 11/39 (28.2%) for 106.8pts (+273.7%)
  • and here at Chelmsford : 4/9 (44.4%) for 5.23pts (+58.1%)

...all of which gives us... a 1pt win bet on Miracle Garden @ 7/2 BOG which was available from Bet365 & Betwayat 5.40pm on Wednesday. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 7.25 Chelmsford

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 9th November 2017

Wednesday's Result :

2.00 Chepstow : Swift Crusador @ 11/4 BOG 2nd at 7/2 Prominent, went 2nd before 4 out, led before 3 out, ridden and headed before last, regained lead towards finish, kept on and headed close home, beaten by a neck.

Next up is Thursday's...

7.15 Chelmsford

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Petite Jack @ 4/1 BOG

A Class 2, 3yo+ A/W Handicap over 1m 2f on Polytrack worth £11,972...

...and a 4 yr old gelding, who just seems to love running on the A/W, winning six times and placing once from just nine efforts, culminating in a course and distance success LTO 40 days ago when visiting Chelmsford for the first time.

Based on today's conditions, here's how his 9 A/W starts break down...

  • 6 wins from 8 going left handed (5/6 in hcps)
  • 6/8 on Polytrack (5/6 in hcps)
  • 5/7 in handicaps
  • 4/6 ridden by jack Mitchell (3/4 in hcps)
  • 4/5 priced at 5/1 or shorter (all in hcps)
  • 4/5 after 31-60 days rest (all in hcps)
  • 3/5 this year (3/4 in hcps)
  • 3/3 over this 10f trip (2/2 in hcps)
  • 3/3 in September to November (all in hcps)
  • 1/1 here at Chelmsford (in a hcp)
  • 1/1 over course and distance (in a hcp)
  • 1/1 in a Class 2 race worth less than £20k (in a hcp)
  • 1/1 for trainer Archie Watson (in a hcp)
  • 1/1 in a sub-8 runner field (in a hcp)
  • 1/1 in cheekpieces (in a hcp)

That C&D win LTO was actually his first run on the A/W since an early summer move to the Archie Watson's yard and his stablemates are also currently in great form with 4 wins and 4 places from 11 runs over the last two weeks, whilst in the last 30 days, Archie's A/W figures are excellent with 5 winners and 3 placers from 12 efforts.

Archie only had his first A/W runner a little over 13 months ago (01/10/16), but he's found the winners' enclosure pretty easy to get to in this sphere since! In fact his A/W record to date stands at 30/123 (24.4% SR) for 38.5pts (+31.3% ROI), from which the following are relevant today...

  • those priced at 10/1 and shorter are 30/101 (29.7%) for 60.5pts (+59.9%)
  • those rested for 6-45 days are 27/94 (28.7%$) for 45.8pts (+48.8%)
  • on Polytrack : 19/86 (22.1%) for 25.6pts (+29.7%)
  • here at Chelmsford : 6/31 (19.4%) for 16pts (+51.7%)
  • over this 1m2f trip : 5/13 (38.5%) for 13.6pts (+104.6%)
  • and those ridden by Jack Mitchell are 2/6 (33.3%) for 17pts (+283.9%)

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Petite Jack @ 4/1 BOG, which was available from Bet365, Hills & Ladbrokes at 6.05pm on Wednesday. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 7.15 Chelmsford

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 21st September 2017

Wednesday's Result :

3.05 Sandown : D'Bai @ 3/1 BOG 6th at 7/4 : Held up towards rear, headway and not much room over 1f out, kept on same pace...

Thursday's pick goes in the...

9.15 Chelmsford :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Bollin Ted @ 3/1 BOG

Why?

This in-form 3yo gelding (11361 last 5 runs) has finished 1131 in his last four efforts at today's 1m2f trip and is also 3 from 7 in this grade.

He now makes a polytrack debut for trainer Tim Easterby whose handicappers are 29/161 (18% SR) for 79.8pts (+49.6% ROI) on this surface since 2010. And of those 161 runners...

  • those last seen 6-30 days ago are 23/115 (20%) for 74.3pts (+64.6%)
  • those priced at 9/4 to 8/1 are 21/86 (24.4%) for 43.5pts (+50.5%)
  • 3 yr olds are 13/56 (23.2%) for 24.2pts (+43.3%)
  • and at Class 6 : 13/55 (23.6%) for 30.4pts (+55.3%)

And today's short and hopefully sweet piece is concluded by combining the above stats to find that 3 yr olds at 9/4 to 8/1 in Class 6 polytrack handicaps 6 to 30 days after their last run are 5/13 (38.5% SR) for 16.5pts (+126.9% ROI)...

...suggesting... a 1pt win bet on Bollin Ted @ 3/1 BOG, which was offered by Bet365, Betway & SkyBet at 6.15pm on Wednesday. For what it's worth, I'm on with SkyBet, but to see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 9.15 Chelmsford

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 15th August 2017

Monday's Result :

7.10 Windsor - Chiefofchiefs @ 10/3 BOG - 4th at 4/1 : Raced wide in touch, ridden over 3f out, headway over 1f out, stayed on one pace

Tuesday's pick goes in the...

8.10 Chelmsford

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Golden Goal @ 5/2 BOG

Why?

The in-form (4 winners and 4 placers from 11 runners in the last 10 days) Saeed bin Suroor send this 3 yr old colt out to defend his 100% record here, having won both his previous starts, both over this course and distance and both under today's jockey Martin Lane, who has ridden 30 winners from 179 (16.8% SR) for profits of 78.25pts (+43.7% ROI) here at Chelmsford to date.

Of those 178 rides, he is...

  • 26/140 (18.6%) for 90.6pts (+64.7%) in handicaps
  • and 5/27 (18.5%) for 13.5pts (+50%) over 7 furlongs

Martin has also ridden 2 winners from 3 (66.6%) here for 1.94pts (+64.5%) profit for Saeed bin Suroor, whose own record on this track is pretty decent too with 19 winners from 38 (50% SR) for 24.4pts (+64.3% ROI) since the start of 2016.

Of these 38 SbS Chelmsford runners...

  • males are 12/25 (48%) for 10.61pts (+42.4%)
  • 3 yr olds are 11/19 (57.9%) for 14.79pts (+77.8%)
  • handicappers are 6/13 (46.2%) for 11.34pts (+87.3%)
  • over 7f : 5/9 (55.6%) for 3.93pts (+43.7%)
  • LTO winners are 3/8 (37.5%) for 1.89pts (+23.6%)
  • and in 3yo only races : 4/6 (66.6%) for 8.74pts (+145.6%)...

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Golden Goal @ 5/2 BOG which was available with 7 different firms at 7.30pm on Monday, but those able to take the 10/3 from Stan James (no BOG 'til raceday) should do so, although I suspect not many can! To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 8.10 Chelmsford

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!