Posts

Stat of the Day, 9th February 2018

Thursday's Result :

7.00 Chelmsford : Fareeq @ 3/1 BOG 2nd at 5/2  Slowly into stride, soon chasing leaders on outside, hung badly left from over 1f out, ran on inside final furlong, went 2nd last strides, no chance with winner...

We continue with Friday's...

4.45 Chelmsford :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Volpone Jelois @ 4/1 BOG

A Class 5, 1m5.5f handicap on Polytrack worth £5,434 to the winner...

Why?

And another fairly simple approach with a 5 yr old gelding, better known as a hurdler. That said, he has made the frame in each of his four non-NH runs, all under today's jockey Megan Nicholls and mainly at Class 5, although he was a runner-up in his sole effort at Class 4 (over 1m6f) suggesting there's a win on the level in him somewhere!

Jockey Megan is 4 from 18 (22.2% SR) for 16.24pts (+90.2% ROI) on the level, riding for her famous father Paul since the start of 2017 and these runners include...

  • over 1m4f to 1m6f : 4/14 (28.6%) for 20.24pts (+144.6%)
  • at Class 5 : 2/6 (33.3%) for 15.48pts (+257.9%)
  • and at Class 5 over 1m4f to 1m6f : 2/3 (66.6%) for 18.48pts (+615.8%)

And further confidence is derived from the yard's recent form, winning 10 of 40 (25% SR) over the past 30 days rising to 8/28 (28.6%) over the last fortnight.

...pointing towards...a 1pt win bet on Volpone Jelois @ 4/1 BOG which was widely available at 6.20pm on Thursday. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 4.45 Chelmsford

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 8th February 2018

Wednesday's Result :

2.25 Chelmsford : Mossys Lodge @ 3/1 BOG WON at 5/1 Slowly into stride, soon handy, went 2nd over 1f out, challenged inside final furlong, led towards finish...

We continue with Thursday's...

7.00 Chelmsford :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Fareeq @ 3/1 BOG

A Class 6, 6f handicap on Polytrack worth £3,249 to the winner...

Why?

A winner 18 days ago over course and distance under tonight's jockey Jason Watson.

Over the last 20 days, trainer Charlie Wallis is 4/15 926.7%) for 11.98pts (+79.9% ROI) whilst jockey Jason is 2 from 4 (50%) for 14.31pts (+357.8%) in the last week alone.

Charlie's LTO winners are 6/27 922.2% SR) for 9.66pts (+35.8% ROI)

And over the last three years, his runners who won LTO 1-25 days earlier at the same class & distance went on to win 3 of 9 933.3% SR) for 8.27pts (+91.9% ROI) with a 2 from 2 record here at Chelmsford yielding 8pts at an ROI of 400%!

And this rather simplistic approach...

...gives us...a 1pt win bet on Fareeq @ 3/1 BOG which was available from Bet365, Betfair, Paddy Power & Betbright at 7.15pm on Wednesday. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 7.00 Chelmsford

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 7th February 2018

Tuesday's Result :

3.05 Southwell : Foolaad @ 11/4 BOG WON at 11/10 Always prominent, every chance over 1f out, led well inside final furlong, stayed on well to win by a neck...

We continue with Wednesday's...

2.25 Chelmsford :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Mossys Lodge @ 3/1 BOG

A Class 7, 7f handicap on Polytrack worth £2,264 to the winner...

Why?

Trainer Anthony Carson's A/W handicappers are 13 from 87 (14.9% SR) for 73.56pts (+84.6% ROI) since the start of 2016 and these include of relevance today...

  • over 7f : 7/38 (18.4%) for 43.77pts (+115.2%)
  • ridden by William Carson : 6/37 (16.2%) for 49.09pts (+132.7%)
  • January to March : 5/35 (14.3%) for 26.88pts (+76.8%)
  • in fields of 9-10 runners : 6/28 (21.4%) for 77.01pts (+275%)
  • 5 yr olds are 4/17 (23.5%) for 16.57pts (+97.5%)
  • those beaten by a neck to 2 lengths LTO are 3/14 (21.4%) for 24.27pts (+173.4%)
  • those finishing 3rd LTO are 4/11 (36.4%) for 41.37pts (+376.1%)

...whilst more generally since 2013 in UK A/W handicaps, horses running over 6f to 1m2f just 2 to 5 days after a win or a defeat by less than 3 lengths are 222/863 (25.7% SR) for 238.11pts (+27.6%), from which...

  • those last seen 5 days ago : 84/307 (27.4%) for 108.1pts (+35.2%)
  • over 7f : 63/248 (25.4%) for 73.69pts (+29.7%)
  • 5 yr olds are 40/154 (26%) for 46.23pts (+30%)

AND...5 yr olds racing over 7f, 5 days after their last outing in which they either won or were beaten by less than 3 lengths = 5/15 (33.3% SR) for 17.82pts (+118.8% ROI)

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Mossys Lodge @ 3/1 BOG which was available from Bet365 & BetVictor at 6.35pm on Tuesday. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 2.25 Chelmsford

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 21st December 2017

Wednesday's Result :

7.40 Kempton : Black Prince @ 7/2 BOG 4th at 5/2 Prominent, every chance 2f out unable to quicken inside final furlong.

Next up is Thursday's...

7.45 Chelmsford :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Choral Clan @ 3/1 BOG

A Class 5, 3yo+ Handicap over 1m2f on Polytrack worth £5,175 to the winner...

...and a very consistent 6 yr old gelding who has made the frame in each of his last five runs, all on the A/W and at trips ranging from 1m to 1m3f.

He was a winner last time out, getting home by a clear two lengths three weeks ago taking his A/W record to 6 wins from 31 (19.4% SR) with all six wins coming from 27 rides (22.2% SR) under today's jockey Jack Mitchell with a 2 from 2 record in small fields.

Trainer Brendan Powell's record in Class 5 to 7, A/W handicappers racing over 7f to 1m6f on Polytrack and Fibresand stands at 23/162 (14.2% SR) for 206.3pts (+127.3% ROI) over the last five years, including...

  • 4 to 6 yr olds @ 18/102 (17.7%) for 192.8pts (+189%)
  • males are 15/96 (15.6%) for 76.1pts (+79.3%)
  • from November to February : 16/89 (18%) for 237pts (+266.3%)
  • those who last raced 11-25 days ago : 14/69 (20.3%) for 169.9pts (+246.2%)
  • and those ridden by Jack Mitchell are 2/9 (22.2%) for 51.6pts (+572.9%)

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Choral Clan @ 3/1 BOG which was widely available at 6.20pm on Wednesday. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 7.45 Chelmsford

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 17th November 2017

Thursday's Result :

7.25 Chelmsford : Miracle Garden @ 7/2 BOG 5th at 9/4 Keen tracked leaders, ridden 2f out, no extra inside final furlong.

Next up is Friday's...

8.15 Chelmsford :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Choral Clan @ 10/3 BOG

A Class 5, 3yo+, A/W Handicap over a mile and a quarter on Polytrack worth £5,175 to the winner.

And a 6yr old gelding whose career record of 5/43 is OK, but just OK. However, all 5 wins have come from 28 runs on Polytrack, from which he's 5/25 (20% SR) for 14.73pts (+58.9% ROI) under today's jockey Jack Mitchell and those runs include...

  • at odds of 5/2 to 13/2 : 4/15 (26.7%) for 9.49pts (+63.3%)
  • off a mark of 61 to 70: 3/8 (37.5%) for 19.46pts (+243.3%)
  • after a break of just 12-18 days : 3/5 (60%) for 22.46pts (+449.2%)
  • and 2/2 (100%) for 10.22pts (+511%) when all three of the above happened.

He is trained by Brendan Powell, whose A/W handicappers are 29/247 (11.7% SR) for 159.7pts (+64.7% ROI) since the start of 2013, including...

  • 3 to 7 yr olds are 27/216 (142.5%) for 173.7pts (+80.4%)
  • at Class 5 to 7 : 28/211 (13.3%) for 192.8pts (+91.4%)
  • and 3 to 7 yr olds at Class 5 to 7 are 26/185 (14.1%) for 201.8pts (+109.1%)

And of those above 185 runners...

  • on Polytrack : 21/143 (14.7%) for 173.4pts (+121.2%)
  • 1-25 days since last run : 20/106 (18.9%) for 178.2pts (+168.1%)
  • and on Polytrack, 1-25 days since last run : 16/81 (19.8% SR) for 144.2pts (+178%)

And finally (!) from these 81, 3-7 yo, C 5-7, 1-25 dslr Poly runners...

  • 11-25 dslr = 13/61 (21.3%) for 130.6pts (+214.1%)
  • males are 12/52 (23.1%) for 77.1pts (+148.2%)
  • Class 5= 6/33 (18.2%) for 35.07pts (+106.3%)
  • at odds of EVS to 8/1 : 10/31 (32.3%) for 30.4pts (+97.9%)
  • top 5 finish LTO = 7/29 (24.1%) for 12pts (+41.3%)
  • previous course winners are 5/19 (26.3%) for 11.76pts (+61.9%)
  • and in November : 5/13 (38.5%) for 99.7pts (+766.9%)

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Choral Clan @ 10/3 BOG which was available from SkyBet at 5.55pm on Thursday. Only 4 firms had priced this up when I went to press. Betfair & Paddy Power offer 3/1 BOG, whilst Bet365 offer 7/2 BOG, so I've taken the middle option. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 8.15 Chelmsford

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 16th November 2017

Wednesday's Result :

2.50 Bangor : Midnight Tour @ 4/1 BOG 3rd at 7/1 In touch, headway 3 out, chased leaders next, kept on same pace closing stages, beaten by 2.75 lengths.

Next up is Thursday's...

7.25 Chelmsford :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Miracle Garden @ 7/2 BOG

A Class 5, 3yo+, A/W Handicap over a mile on Polytrack worth £5,175 to the winner.

Featuring a 5 yr old gelding who arrives here in decent nick having finished 132 in his last three outings and was only held off by a neck last time out. That was here at Chelmsford a week ago over 7f when staying on well and finishing strongest.

The winning line came fractionally too soon for him that day, so I expect the extra furlong to help him here in his bid to improve an already decent looking return of 5 wins from 22 (22.7% SR) on the A/W, including...

  • 5 wins & 4 places from 13 at Classes 5 & 6
  • 4 wins & 3 places from 7 in September to November
  • 2 wins & 3 places from 6 on Polytrack
  • and 2 wins and a place from four 12/13 runner races.

His trainer, Ian Williams, has had 8 winners from 27 (29.6% SR) runners in Class 5/6 contests here at Chelmsford to date and a simple £10 bet on each would have produced £92.10 profit, not earth shattering, but (a) enough for a night out and more importantly (b) an ROI of 34.1%!

Of these 27 lower grade runners here...

  • males are 8/23 (34.8%) for 13.21pts (+57.4%)
  • at trips of 7 to 10 furlongs : 7/20 (35%) for 4.09pts (+20.45%)
  • finished 2nd, 3rd or 4th LTO : 6/11 (54.5%) for 10.54pts (+95.8%)

AND...his lower grade males running over 7 to 10 furlongs here after a losing top 4 finish LTO are 6/9 (66.6% SR) for 12.54pts (+139.4%)

Yet, for as impressive as the above numbers might be, they do lack the usual SotD meatiness of sample size, so  I'll divert you to the fact that this one is turned back out pretty quickly after last Thursday's defeat, because this is one of Ian Williams' preferred methods, as since the start of 2011, his runners who have rested for less than 10 days are 107/436 (24.5% SR) for 147.1pts (+33.7% ROI), of which...

  • handicappers are 93/356 (26.1%) for 185.7pts (+52.2%)
  • on the A/W : 38/178 (21.4%) for 109.7pts (+61.6%)
  • and in A/W handicaps : 33/153 (21.6%) for 115.5pts (+75.5%)

...and from the above 153 quickly turned around A/W handicappers...

  •  those running on Polytrack are 27/111 (24.3%) for 87pts (+78.4%)
  • those finishing 2nd, 3rd or 4th LTO are 21/73 (28.8%) for 34.8pts (+47.7%)
  • those racing against 11 or 12 opponents are 11/39 (28.2%) for 106.8pts (+273.7%)
  • and here at Chelmsford : 4/9 (44.4%) for 5.23pts (+58.1%)

...all of which gives us... a 1pt win bet on Miracle Garden @ 7/2 BOG which was available from Bet365 & Betwayat 5.40pm on Wednesday. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 7.25 Chelmsford

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 9th November 2017

Wednesday's Result :

2.00 Chepstow : Swift Crusador @ 11/4 BOG 2nd at 7/2 Prominent, went 2nd before 4 out, led before 3 out, ridden and headed before last, regained lead towards finish, kept on and headed close home, beaten by a neck.

Next up is Thursday's...

7.15 Chelmsford

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Petite Jack @ 4/1 BOG

A Class 2, 3yo+ A/W Handicap over 1m 2f on Polytrack worth £11,972...

...and a 4 yr old gelding, who just seems to love running on the A/W, winning six times and placing once from just nine efforts, culminating in a course and distance success LTO 40 days ago when visiting Chelmsford for the first time.

Based on today's conditions, here's how his 9 A/W starts break down...

  • 6 wins from 8 going left handed (5/6 in hcps)
  • 6/8 on Polytrack (5/6 in hcps)
  • 5/7 in handicaps
  • 4/6 ridden by jack Mitchell (3/4 in hcps)
  • 4/5 priced at 5/1 or shorter (all in hcps)
  • 4/5 after 31-60 days rest (all in hcps)
  • 3/5 this year (3/4 in hcps)
  • 3/3 over this 10f trip (2/2 in hcps)
  • 3/3 in September to November (all in hcps)
  • 1/1 here at Chelmsford (in a hcp)
  • 1/1 over course and distance (in a hcp)
  • 1/1 in a Class 2 race worth less than £20k (in a hcp)
  • 1/1 for trainer Archie Watson (in a hcp)
  • 1/1 in a sub-8 runner field (in a hcp)
  • 1/1 in cheekpieces (in a hcp)

That C&D win LTO was actually his first run on the A/W since an early summer move to the Archie Watson's yard and his stablemates are also currently in great form with 4 wins and 4 places from 11 runs over the last two weeks, whilst in the last 30 days, Archie's A/W figures are excellent with 5 winners and 3 placers from 12 efforts.

Archie only had his first A/W runner a little over 13 months ago (01/10/16), but he's found the winners' enclosure pretty easy to get to in this sphere since! In fact his A/W record to date stands at 30/123 (24.4% SR) for 38.5pts (+31.3% ROI), from which the following are relevant today...

  • those priced at 10/1 and shorter are 30/101 (29.7%) for 60.5pts (+59.9%)
  • those rested for 6-45 days are 27/94 (28.7%$) for 45.8pts (+48.8%)
  • on Polytrack : 19/86 (22.1%) for 25.6pts (+29.7%)
  • here at Chelmsford : 6/31 (19.4%) for 16pts (+51.7%)
  • over this 1m2f trip : 5/13 (38.5%) for 13.6pts (+104.6%)
  • and those ridden by Jack Mitchell are 2/6 (33.3%) for 17pts (+283.9%)

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Petite Jack @ 4/1 BOG, which was available from Bet365, Hills & Ladbrokes at 6.05pm on Wednesday. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 7.15 Chelmsford

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 21st September 2017

Wednesday's Result :

3.05 Sandown : D'Bai @ 3/1 BOG 6th at 7/4 : Held up towards rear, headway and not much room over 1f out, kept on same pace...

Thursday's pick goes in the...

9.15 Chelmsford :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Bollin Ted @ 3/1 BOG

Why?

This in-form 3yo gelding (11361 last 5 runs) has finished 1131 in his last four efforts at today's 1m2f trip and is also 3 from 7 in this grade.

He now makes a polytrack debut for trainer Tim Easterby whose handicappers are 29/161 (18% SR) for 79.8pts (+49.6% ROI) on this surface since 2010. And of those 161 runners...

  • those last seen 6-30 days ago are 23/115 (20%) for 74.3pts (+64.6%)
  • those priced at 9/4 to 8/1 are 21/86 (24.4%) for 43.5pts (+50.5%)
  • 3 yr olds are 13/56 (23.2%) for 24.2pts (+43.3%)
  • and at Class 6 : 13/55 (23.6%) for 30.4pts (+55.3%)

And today's short and hopefully sweet piece is concluded by combining the above stats to find that 3 yr olds at 9/4 to 8/1 in Class 6 polytrack handicaps 6 to 30 days after their last run are 5/13 (38.5% SR) for 16.5pts (+126.9% ROI)...

...suggesting... a 1pt win bet on Bollin Ted @ 3/1 BOG, which was offered by Bet365, Betway & SkyBet at 6.15pm on Wednesday. For what it's worth, I'm on with SkyBet, but to see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 9.15 Chelmsford

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 15th August 2017

Monday's Result :

7.10 Windsor - Chiefofchiefs @ 10/3 BOG - 4th at 4/1 : Raced wide in touch, ridden over 3f out, headway over 1f out, stayed on one pace

Tuesday's pick goes in the...

8.10 Chelmsford

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Golden Goal @ 5/2 BOG

Why?

The in-form (4 winners and 4 placers from 11 runners in the last 10 days) Saeed bin Suroor send this 3 yr old colt out to defend his 100% record here, having won both his previous starts, both over this course and distance and both under today's jockey Martin Lane, who has ridden 30 winners from 179 (16.8% SR) for profits of 78.25pts (+43.7% ROI) here at Chelmsford to date.

Of those 178 rides, he is...

  • 26/140 (18.6%) for 90.6pts (+64.7%) in handicaps
  • and 5/27 (18.5%) for 13.5pts (+50%) over 7 furlongs

Martin has also ridden 2 winners from 3 (66.6%) here for 1.94pts (+64.5%) profit for Saeed bin Suroor, whose own record on this track is pretty decent too with 19 winners from 38 (50% SR) for 24.4pts (+64.3% ROI) since the start of 2016.

Of these 38 SbS Chelmsford runners...

  • males are 12/25 (48%) for 10.61pts (+42.4%)
  • 3 yr olds are 11/19 (57.9%) for 14.79pts (+77.8%)
  • handicappers are 6/13 (46.2%) for 11.34pts (+87.3%)
  • over 7f : 5/9 (55.6%) for 3.93pts (+43.7%)
  • LTO winners are 3/8 (37.5%) for 1.89pts (+23.6%)
  • and in 3yo only races : 4/6 (66.6%) for 8.74pts (+145.6%)...

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Golden Goal @ 5/2 BOG which was available with 7 different firms at 7.30pm on Monday, but those able to take the 10/3 from Stan James (no BOG 'til raceday) should do so, although I suspect not many can! To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 8.10 Chelmsford

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 25th July 2017

Monday's Result :

7.55 Beverley : Navarone @ 7/2 BOG 4th at 11/2 Tracked leaders, 2nd over 1f out until inside final furlong, lost 3rd close home.

Tuesday's pick goes in the...

7.00 Chelmsford...

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Udontdodou @ 9/2 BOG

Why?

A 4yr old gelding who has two wins from his last four outings and his career record on the A/W reads 411. He was beaten at Newcastle back in November and since then he's 2 from 2 on the artificial tracks, both here at Chelmsford in Class 3, 6f handicaps similar to today's race, including an LTO win 34 days ago.

He's 1 from 1 under today's jockey Connor Beasley, who rides this track very well indeed, having won 10 of 41 (24.4% SR) handicap races here generating level stakes profits of 32.45pts at a very attractive ROI of 79.2%.

And that's probably enough to vindicate a bet at decent looking odds of , but there's always another layer to uncover, isn't there, so how about the trainer?

Well, Richard Guest also does well enough here at Chelmsford, despite not sending many runners on the 380-mile round trip (maybe that's why!) from his base near Wetherby. But, since the start of 2016, his charges are 7/23 (30.4% SR) for 78.47pts (+341.2% ROI) profit here and all of those were handicappers, including...

  • males at 5/14 (35.7%) for 31.87pts (+227.6%)
  • those ridden by Connor Beasley : 4/10 (40%) for 13.75pts (+137.5%)
  • 4yr olds are 4/7 (57.1%) for 9.82pts (+140.2%)
  • those priced shorter than 6/1 are 4/6 (66.6%) for 10.82pts (+180.3%)
  • over 6f : 3/6 (50%) for 8.94pts (+149%)
  • and at Class 3 : 2/2 (100%) for 3.44pts (+172%)

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Udontdodou @ 9/2 BOG which was available in a t least half a dozen places at 5.35pm on Monday. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 7.00 Chelmsford...

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 22nd June 2017

Wednesday's Result :

4.20 Royal Ascot : Highland Reel @ 11/4 BOG WON at 9/4 Tracked leader, ridden to lead approaching final furlong, stayed on gamely and found extra well inside final furlong to win by 1.25 lengths.

Thursday's pick goes in the...

5.20 Chelmsford...

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Saved My Bacon @ 6/1 BOG

Why?

Two decent runs over course and distance in her last two starts at a higher grade than this put her in a strong position today and now down in class and eased another pound by the assessor, she stands every chance of improving upon her 6/33 record on the A/W.

In those 33 runs, she is...

  • 5/24 going left handed
  • 6/21 running 8 to 30 days since her last run
  • 4/19 here at Chelmsford
  • 4/15 at Class 5
  • 2 wins over course and distance

She's now 3lbs lower than her last winning mark and with a 5lb jockey claim to factor in, any repeat of either of her last two runs should be enough in today's weaker contest.

Her trainer, Chris Dwyer, has his string in fine fettle at present with each of his last 6 runners all making the frame, including 2 winners and more long-term, his record in A/W handicaps since the start of 2013 stands at 82 from 492 (16.7% SR) for 191.5pts (+38.9% ROI), including...

  • those running 4-30 days after their last run = 75/385 (19.5%) for 232.2pts (60.3%)
  • females are 31/172 (18%) for 61.7pts (35.9%)
  • at Chelmsford : 25/129 (19.4%) for 134.9pts (104.5%)
  • at Class 5 : 28/126 (22.2%) for 45.9pts (36.4%)
  • those dropping in class are 23/119 (19.3%) for 27.7pts (23.3%)
  • over 5 furlongs : 16/95 (16.8%) for 37.1pts (39.1%)
  • and those ridden by 5lb claimers are 11/56 (19.6%) for 22.7pts (40.5%)

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Saved My Bacon6/1 BOG which was quite widely available at 6.25pm on Wednesday. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 5.20 Chelmsford

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 29th May 2017

Saturday's Result :

8.00 Ffos Las : Heist @ 9/2 BOG = 3/15/1 after 30p R4 WON at 11/4 With leader, left in lead 7th, joined approaching 2 out, ridden between last 2, stayed on well under pressure on flat to win by 2 lengths.

Monday's pick goes in the...

4.50 Chelmsford...

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Your first 30 days for just £1

Dark Side Dream3/1 BOG

Why?

This is a Class 5, 7-runner handicap over 7f for horses aged 4 and over and I've gone with a 5 yr old gelding who was a winner two starts ago at Wolverhampton, before narrowly going down by head when starting to stay on over the same trip in a Class 4 contest last time out 21 days ago.

He now steps up in trip to 7f, which should help, based on the way he has been finishing of late and he also takes a drop in class to run here for trainer Chris Dwyer, whose horses are 3 from 7 in the past fortnight and 2 from 6 over the last seven days.

Chris' A/W handicap class droppers are 22/117 (18.8% SR) for 25.4pts (+21.7% ROI) since the start of 2013, including the following of note/relevance today...

  • those priced at 7/4 to 14/1 are 21/81 (25.9%) for 59.5pts (+73.4%)
  • those racing over 5f to 7f : 16/68 (23.5%) for 49.2pts (+72.3%)
  • those last seen 21 to 60 days back are 12/53 (22.6%) for 34.2pts (+64.6%)
  • here at Chelmsford : 6/29 (20.7%) for 14.6pts (+50.4%)
  • and 5 yr olds are 3 from 9 (33.3%) for 2.14pts (+23.8%)

In addition to the above, Chris Dwyer's runners tend to go very well on this track here at Chelmsford with 26 winners from 145 (17.9% SR) generating level stakes profits of some 125.4pts at an ROI of 86.5%, with his handicappers faring particularly well with a record of 24/127 (18.9%) for 132.5pts (+104.3%).

And of those 127 handicappers here at Chelmsford...

  • those last seen 11 to 45 days ago are 21/97 (21.7%) for 149.3pts (+153.9%)
  • males are 16/85 (18.8%) for 124.4pts (+146.3%)
  • and those racing over 6f to 1m are 16/76 (21.1%) for 155.2pts (+204.2%)

AND...from the above...male handicappers racing over 7f/1m 11-45 dslr = 8/26 (30.8% SR) for 150.7pts (+579.7% ROI)

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Dark Side Dream3/1 BOG which was available with BetVictor & Bet365 at 10.05pm on Sunday, but to see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 4.50 Chelmsford

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats are to Betfair SP, as (i) I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you and (ii) although inferior to the BOG odds we secure, BFSP is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns quoted.

Stat of the Day, 29th May 2017

Saturday's Result :

8.00 Ffos Las : Heist @ 9/2 BOG = 3/15/1 after 30p R4 WON at 11/4 With leader, left in lead 7th, joined approaching 2 out, ridden between last 2, stayed on well under pressure on flat to win by 2 lengths.

Monday's pick goes in the...

4.50 Chelmsford...

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Dark Side Dream3/1 BOG

Why?

This is a Class 5, 7-runner handicap over 7f for horses aged 4 and over and I've gone with a 5 yr old gelding who was a winner two starts ago at Wolverhampton, before narrowly going down by head when starting to stay on over the same trip in a Class 4 contest last time out 21 days ago.

He now steps up in trip to 7f, which should help, based on the way he has been finishing of late and he also takes a drop in class to run here for trainer Chris Dwyer, whose horses are 3 from 7 in the past fortnight and 2 from 6 over the last seven days.

Chris' A/W handicap class droppers are 22/117 (18.8% SR) for 25.4pts (+21.7% ROI) since the start of 2013, including the following of note/relevance today...

  • those priced at 7/4 to 14/1 are 21/81 (25.9%) for 59.5pts (+73.4%)
  • those racing over 5f to 7f : 16/68 (23.5%) for 49.2pts (+72.3%)
  • those last seen 21 to 60 days back are 12/53 (22.6%) for 34.2pts (+64.6%)
  • here at Chelmsford : 6/29 (20.7%) for 14.6pts (+50.4%)
  • and 5 yr olds are 3 from 9 (33.3%) for 2.14pts (+23.8%)

In addition to the above, Chris Dwyer's runners tend to go very well on this track here at Chelmsford with 26 winners from 145 (17.9% SR) generating level stakes profits of some 125.4pts at an ROI of 86.5%, with his handicappers faring particularly well with a record of 24/127 (18.9%) for 132.5pts (+104.3%).

And of those 127 handicappers here at Chelmsford...

  • those last seen 11 to 45 days ago are 21/97 (21.7%) for 149.3pts (+153.9%)
  • males are 16/85 (18.8%) for 124.4pts (+146.3%)
  • and those racing over 6f to 1m are 16/76 (21.1%) for 155.2pts (+204.2%)

AND...from the above...male handicappers racing over 7f/1m 11-45 dslr = 8/26 (30.8% SR) for 150.7pts (+579.7% ROI)

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Dark Side Dream3/1 BOG which was available with BetVictor & Bet365 at 10.05pm on Sunday, but to see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 4.50 Chelmsford

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats are to Betfair SP, as (i) I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you and (ii) although inferior to the BOG odds we secure, BFSP is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns quoted.

Stat of the Day, 23rd March 2017

Wednesday's Result :

5.00 Newcastle : Spirit of the Vale @ 7/2 BOG 2nd at 9/4 Slowly into stride in rear, headway in centre from over 2f out, stayed on to chase winner inside final furlong

Thursday's pick goes in the...

7.50 Chelmsford...

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Rosie Crowe5/1 BOG

Why?

A 5 yr old mare, beaten by just 0.75 lengths last time out here over course and distance five weeks ago. She runs off the same mark (50) here, but is boosted by the booking of 5lb claimer Charlie Bennett to ease the burden somewhat.

Trainer Shaun Harris has got his horses running well at present and he's no stranger to putting this jockey up for a ride or two and they have been quite successful together.

In fact the partnership is 10 from 79 (12.7% SR) for 35.7pts (+45.2% ROI) profit and whilst we've had better strike rates/ROIs for our headline stats in the past, these are actually excellent figures for a jockey still claiming 5lbs.

We can, of course, tweak and refine the data to fit to today's contest and here similar race conditions, those 79 races have produced the following...

  • in handicaps : 10/72 (13.9%) for 42.7pts (+59.3%)
  • when Charlie claims his 5lbs : 7/68 (10.3%) for 22.9pts (+33.7%)
  • on the All-Weather : 7/56 (12.5%) for 27.5pts (+49.2%)
  • at Class 6 : 9/50 (18%) for 57.2pts (+114.4%)
  • at odds of 12/1 and shorter : 9/40 (22.5%) for 44.2pts (+110.6%)
  • and here at Chelmsford : 4/15 (26.7%) for 23pts (+153.3%)

...pointing us towards...a 1pt win bet on Rosie Crowe 5/1 BOG which was pretty widely available at 6.25pm on Wednesday, but DO grab the 11/2 BOG offered by Hills if you can! To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 7.50 Chelmsford

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats are to Betfair SP, as (i) I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you and (ii) although inferior to the BOG odds we secure, BFSP is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns quoted.

Stat of the Day, 16th March 2017

Wednesday's Result :

3.15 Southwell : Brigadoon @ 9/2 BOG WON at 6/1 Led after 2f, made rest, clear over 3f out, increased lead over 2f out, eased in final furlong to win by 10 lengths

Thursday's pick goes in the...

7.15 Chelmsford...

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Upavon4/1 BOG

Why?

A 7 yr old gelding trained by Stuart Williams and I'm always interested in Stuart Williams' A/W handicappers, providing the market suggests there's at least a chance of a run for my money and the simple reason behind this pick is that since the start of 2013, it's actually profitable to back them all!

Since 1/1/13 : Stuart Williams + A/W hcps = 89/513 (17.4$ SR) for 63.2pts (+12.3% ROI) and I could leave it there, but I wouldn't want you to feel short changed, so without complicating matters too much, here are just some of the angles you can take to refine the main stat : all of which apply today, of course!

So, of the 513 we started with...

  • those last seen 4-60 days ago (rested but not rusty!) = 80/449 (17.8%) for 68.3pts (+15.2%)
  • over 4f to 1m : 78/411 (19%) for 97.9pts (+23.8%)
  • top 6 finish LTO = 72/378 (19.1%) for 76.2pts (+20.2%)
  • males are 68/373 (18.2%) for 66.4pts (+17.8%)
  • at odds of 9/4 to 12/1 : 74/371 (20%) for 132.4pts (+35.7%)
  • here at Chelmsford : 22/135 (16.3%) for 25.6pts (+18.9%)
  • at Class 3 : 8/46 (17.4%) for 10.4pts (+22.7%)
  • and 7 yr olds are 8/41 (19.5%) for 11.2pts (+27.4%)

...which points towards...a 1pt win bet on Upavon 4/1 BOG which was very widely available  at 6.40pm on Wednesday. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 7.15 Chelmsford

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted are to Betfair SP, as (i) I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you and (ii) although inferior to the BOG odds we secure, BFSP is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns quoted.