Tag Archive for: Instant Expert

Racing Insights, Thursday 23/05/24

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Thursday's free feature, the Instant Expert racecard tab is one of Geegeez readers' most popular tools because it has the unique ability to condense the entire form profile of every runner in the race into a single, easily digestible, view covering the form in terms of wins (or places), runs, and win (or place) percentage for each of going, class, course, distance, and field size.

It also compares today’s official rating with the horse’s last winning official rating. The display is colour coded: green for a higher percentage rate, amber for a middling percentage, and red for a low percentage. Horses with no form under a certain condition have grey figures.

IMPORTANT NOTE: Where a horse has no UK/Irish form – i.e. it is having its first run in Britain or Ireland under Rules – it will not show up on Instant Expert at all.

We make this feature freely available to ALL readers EVERY Thursday for ALL races, including, naturally, our selection of 'free' races as follows...

  • 1.58 Market Rasen
  • 5.15 Catterick
  • 6.25 Limerick
  • 6.55 Limerick
  • 7.37 Sandown

...but I think I'll ignore for various reasons (never bet on races that don't appeal) and look at whatever might be the day's highest-rated/most-valuable handicap. That actually turns out to be the 8.42 Sandown, a 12-runner, Class 3 (£9020 to the winner), 4yo+ flat handicap over a right-handed mile on good to soft ground...

Crack Shot and Hiromichi both won last time and they have both won three of their last six outings, whilst Navagio, Regheeb and Dragon Icon have all won twice in six or less. Excel Power is the only one without a win in seven starts, having suffered ten defeats on the bounce.

Three of the top four in the weights (Alzahir, Navagio and Dual Identity) drop in class here, as does bottom-weight Magic Memories who runs for the first time since the Moores changed the licence naming.

Classic might well need a run here today, as at 268 days since his last run, he's the only one without a run since the start of April, but he is one of just previous course winners, having won here over 7f last July. Dual Identity won a 1m2f handicap at a higher level here last September.

This pair of course winners are, however, amongst five (Alzahir, Regheeb & Al Rufaa being the others) yet to win over today's trip...

Feature of the day, Instant Expert, doesn't have masses of past relevant runs for this field, but does suggest that Classic, Crack Shot and Hiromichi might be best suited to the conditions. That said, there are few alarm bells ringing here, other than maybe Dual Identity's failure to win at the going and trip and Navagio's UK mark being much higher than his last win over in Ireland. If we then consider the place stats from those races above, it becomes more apparent about Dual Identity's dislike of this trip...

...which is unfortunate, because the other columns show he has ability, He's better at 1m2f where he has four wins and five further places from just thirteen starts, but it seems a mile is just on the sharp side for him. At this point, I'd probably remove a few of these from my calculations and just take the following runners forward...

I've arranged them in draw order, as I'm now going to see if any of them might be handed any kind of advantage from their stalls position, but our draw analyser says there's not a great deal in it, although those in stalls 5 and above have done slightly better for themselves...

Our pace analyser also says there's not a great deal in it pace-wise too, but that hold-up horses have fared worst of all...

...and that the optimum pace/draw combinations would be low-drawn runners in mid-division or leaders drawn centrally with high-drawn leaders also doing well...

We already know the draw, but from a pace perspective, here's how the field have approached their most recent races...

...and if they go that way today, then Crack Shot fulfils the role of low-drawn mid-division runner and Regheeb would be the high drawn leader.

Summary

For me, the best two horses in this race are Crack Shot and Hiromichi. Both are in good form, both won last time out, both scored well on Instant Expert. Hiromichi appears to be better drawn, but Crack Shot seems to have the better pace/draw make-up and just about shades it for me.

Crack Shot is the current (5pm Wednesday) 7/2 favourite with Bet365 and whilst I think he might just prevail, I must say there's not a great deal of value in those odds and a 9/1 E/W bet about Hiromichi might be a more viable option.

Regheeb also looked good on the pace/draw heatmap and this unexposed 4 yr old was only a length behind Hiromichi last time out, despite not having raced for over five months. He's entitled to come on for that run and he's 2lbs better off today, so he could push Hiromichi again today, making him also of E/W interest at 11/1, especially with most firms paying four places.

Racing Insights, Thursday 16/05/24

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Thursday's free feature, the Instant Expert racecard tab is one of Geegeez readers' most popular tools because it has the unique ability to condense the entire form profile of every runner in the race into a single, easily digestible, view covering the form in terms of wins (or places), runs, and win (or place) percentage for each of going, class, course, distance, and field size.

It also compares today’s official rating with the horse’s last winning official rating. The display is colour coded: green for a higher percentage rate, amber for a middling percentage, and red for a low percentage. Horses with no form under a certain condition have grey figures.

IMPORTANT NOTE: Where a horse has no UK/Irish form – i.e. it is having its first run in Britain or Ireland under Rules – it will not show up on Instant Expert at all.

We make this feature freely available to ALL readers EVERY Thursday for ALL races, including, naturally, our selection of 'free' races as follows...

  • 2.05 Limerick
  • 2.20 Perth
  • 3.05 Limerick
  • 3.15 York
  • 3.30 Salisbury
  • 8.00 Clonmel

...but I'm going to leave those alone and have a look at the highest-rated handicap on the Salisbury card, the 2.30 Salisbury. It's a 12-runner, Class 3, 4yo+ flat handicap over a right-handed 1m6f on soft ground...

Rathgar is the sole LTO winner on display here (Pawapuri did win her last two on the Flat but has been hurdling lately and was 6th LTO), but Circuit Breaker, Torcello, Duke of Verona and Ellerton all finished third on their last starts. Hurtle Wallop is a three-race maiden but all his rivals bar top-weight Alright Sunshine and Ellerton have at least one win in six; the former is winless in nine and had refused to race in his last two, whilst the latter is on a seven-race losing streak.

Only a third of this field (Alright Sunshine, The Goat, Torcello & Duke of Verona) raced at Class 3 last time around, as Circuit Breaker (on yard debut here), Kyle of Lochalsh and Pawapuri (second handicap start today) all drop from Class 2, whilst LTO winner Rathgar joins Ocean Heights, Ellerton (also on hcp debut today) and bottom-weight Military Tycoon is stepping up from Class 4. Handicap debutant and three-race maiden steps up two classes here, which is interesting if nothing else.

Most of these have had a run in the last two months and Ocean heights should be OK after 75 days rest, as should Pawapuri but at 223 days off since last refusing to run, Alright Sunshine is a negative here. He is, however, one of just five runners along with Kyle of Lochalsh, Rathgar, Duke of Verona and Military Tycoon to have won over this trip and the latter is our sole course and distance winner. Torcello has also won here previously, landing a 1m2f maiden on his only previous visit. That was just his third career start, some 52 races ago back in July 2017 and his more recent relevant form looks (courtesy of Instant Expert) like this...

...where on a fairly sparse looking graphic, it appears that he might relish the conditions. There are3 clearly more negatives than positives above and my main worries from this set of data are the win percentage over this trip for Alright Sunshine, the +15lb for Kyle of Lochalsh from his last Flat win, although he is only 6lbs than his A/W win two starts ago and Duke Of Verona could have done better at Class 3. The place stats say that he only made the frame in one of those five defeats too...

...but Circuit Breaker now enters the party, as does Rathgar to a lesser extent.

Unusually for a race beyond a mile and a half, there does appear to be a slight advantage from the draw with those drawn lower appearing to fare best...

...but I'd tread carefully here. The draw really shouldn't be a massive factor here and the sample size is very small, but the numbers are what the numbers are. It's a little difference with pace, as race tactics are important at all distances and that small number of races above have suited front-runners best of all...

...so if we can find a low-ish drawn front-runner, we might well be onto something. We already know the draw, so if I arrange the field in draw order and show you how they've approached their most recent races...

...we should probably focus on The Goat, Circuit Breaker, Torcello and Pawapuri. Ocean heights and Ellerton are probably hoping to set the pace but they're coming from wide and the former is on turf debut and the latter on UK debut.

Summary

It pains me to end up highlighting a favourite, but I think I like the 11/4 Pawapuri here, although not enough to back her. Those odds are a little short for a horse who hasn't raced on the Flat since landing a Class 5 maiden at Yarmouth in September 2022, even if she did win a heavy ground Listed hurdle at Christmas. So whilst I think Pawapuri might be the best horse on paper, I'm inclined to lean towards Circuit Breaker who comes here in decent form, scored well on the place side of Instant Expert and will be up with the pace.

Circuit Breaker was priced up at 5/1 just after 5pm on Wednesday, which I think is very fair and offers more value than Pawapuri. As for the other two who'll be racing in advanced positions, I'm not over keen on The Goat who has been disappointing for a few runs now, but Torcello might well roll the years back and outrun his 12/1 ticket on his ay to a top four finish as my E/W pick. One other of interest who might come from off the pace is LTO winner Rathgar, who is in good nick and drawn well. He has Pawapuri immediately next door and might well get a tow into the race. If that does happen then 8/1 E/W might begin to look generous.

Racing Insights, Thursday 09/05/24

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Thursday's free feature, the Instant Expert racecard tab is one of Geegeez readers' most popular tools because it has the unique ability to condense the entire form profile of every runner in the race into a single, easily digestible, view covering the form in terms of wins (or places), runs, and win (or place) percentage for each of going, class, course, distance, and field size.

It also compares today’s official rating with the horse’s last winning official rating. The display is colour coded: green for a higher percentage rate, amber for a middling percentage, and red for a low percentage. Horses with no form under a certain condition have grey figures.

IMPORTANT NOTE: Where a horse has no UK/Irish form – i.e. it is having its first run in Britain or Ireland under Rules – it will not show up on Instant Expert at all.

We make this feature freely available to ALL readers EVERY Thursday for ALL races, including, naturally, our selection of 'free' races as follows...

  • 1.50 Huntingdon
  • 3.05 Chester
  • 3.18 Brighton
  • 6.40 Tipperary
  • 7.10 Tipperary
  • 9.00 Chelmsford

I fancy looking at some Flat/AW action today, but the Chester race above only has five runners and the Brighton race looks a poor quality affair full of inexperienced runners, so let's head to Essex for some late evening all-weather action and the 9.00 Chelmsford, a 9-runner, Class 6, 4yo+ A/W handicap over a left-handed 7f on standard polytrack...

My initial thoughts were that this might well end up being a battle between stablemates Conquest of Power and Heerathetrack, who'll make the 250-mile round trip from Mark Usher's yard in Lambourn along with Q Twenty Boy who goes in the 6.30 race.

Conquest of Power is one of two (Thomas Equinas in the other) LTO winners in the field and Thomas Equinas has won three of his last four. Annie Law won her penultimate race, as did Poetic Jack, whilst Heerathetrack and Alexander James were both in the frame last time out. The latter, however, joins Golden Passport as having no win in six, having been beaten in 14 races on the bounce; Golden Passport has lost ten in a row.

He drops in class today (as does Harry The Haggler) and hasn't raced for two months, but that break won't be the reason he doesn't win here today, although the lay-offs for Poetic Jack (154 days), Annie Law (176 days) and Thomas Equinas (217 days) might be an issue here.

Alexander James is the only runner without a win at this trip and all runners here bar him, Golden Passport, Annie Law and Harry The Haggler are course and distance winners, according to Instant Expert...

...which has Thomas Equinas as the eyecatcher with a decent set of numbers and he's only 4lbs higher than his last win, but it has been seven months since that run/win here over course and distance. Conquest of Power's record at Class 6 isn't great at 1 from 8, but the win was last time out and he has already won at both Class 4 and Class 5. His record here doesn't look good either, but I believe that he has been a regular placer; we'll check that in a moment!

Alexander James looks particularly vulnerable here on his 14-race losing streak and it's probably fair to assume that he'll join Golden Passport in being excluded from my thoughts, even if the following place data shows him in a better light...

...which it doesn't to be honest. Just 4 places from 17 on standard going simply isn't enough. On a brighter note, my thoughts about Conquest of Power being a regular placer were spot on and Harry the Haggler also looks like an E/W or place prospect with Thomas Equinas still leading the way.

Thomas Equinas has been drawn plumb centre of the stalls with Heerathetrack taking stall 1 and King of Ithaca out in box nine, but if we look back at similar races since the start of 2020, our draw analyser suggests that stall position wouldn't be a significant factor in a horse's chances of winning this race...

...although the lower the draw, the slightly better the chance (+13% low over high) of making the frame, which is good news for Heerathetrack, who normally tends to race in the middle of the pack and has done so in each of his last four outings...

...with Golden Passport looking the likely back marker. There's no out and out front runner in this field, although Harry The Haggler did set the pace two starts ago and Poetic Jack lad for 6 of the 7 furlongs last time out, but wilted away to 8th of 9 and a 7-length defeat, so I wouldn't expect similar tactics from him. To be honest, I wouldn't be too surprised if Conquest of Power and course specialist Thomas Equinas didn't take it on between them.

Summary

Chelmsford really suits those willing to set the tempo of the race and both Conquest of Power and Thomas Equinas look capable of doing this and both arrive here on the back of a winning run last time out, albeit seven months ago in Thomas' case. His last three runs here have seen him win over course and distance twice either side of a win over a mile, so he's clearly the one to beat in this track when fit, but the lack of a run just tips the balance back towards Conquest of Power for me.

Conquest of Power would be my idea of a winner here, but I can see Thomas Equinas also making the frame. I'm not as sold on Heerathetrack as I thought I might be, but he still stands a decent chance of making the frame, as does Harry The Haggler.

The early (3.20pm Wednesday) bet365 market agrees with me about Conquest of Power (sadly)...

...but it does have Thomas Equinas as borderline E/W territory, depending on your personal odds cut-off point for E/W bets. I know Alexander James ran pretty well when finishing third over course and distance last time out, but hold-up horses have a poor record here and he has lost his last fourteen races, making the frame just twice. I might be missing something, but he wouldn't anywhere near second favourite in my book; I'd probably only have Annie Law, Golden Passport and Poetic Jack behind him.

We'll see! 😉

 

Racing Insights, Thursday 25/04/24

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Thursday's free feature, the Instant Expert racecard tab is one of Geegeez readers' most popular tools because it has the unique ability to condense the entire form profile of every runner in the race into a single, easily digestible, view covering the form in terms of wins (or places), runs, and win (or place) percentage for each of going, class, course, distance, and field size.

It also compares today’s official rating with the horse’s last winning official rating. The display is colour coded: green for a higher percentage rate, amber for a middling percentage, and red for a low percentage. Horses with no form under a certain condition have grey figures.

IMPORTANT NOTE: Where a horse has no UK/Irish form – i.e. it is having its first run in Britain or Ireland under Rules – it will not show up on Instant Expert at all.

We make this feature freely available to ALL readers EVERY Thursday for ALL races, including, naturally, our selection of 'free' races as follows...

  • 5.05 Beverley
  • 5.10 Huntingdon
  • 5.40 Beverley
  • 6.52 Wexford
  • 9.00 Chelmsford

You can tell the nights are getting longer when we've got races at 9pm and that race is probably the best of the free races for me to cover, so let's head off to Essex for that 9.00 Chelmsford contest, a 10-runner, Class 4, 4yo+ A/W handicap over a left-handed 1m2f on standard polytrack...

Fearless Bay is our sole LTO winner, but that run/win was 18 months ago, so I'm not it's a relevant form pointer. Isle of Sark, Cavalluccio and Ludo's Landing were all third recently and all three come here in decent form; Isle of Sark has made the frame in six of his last seven despite not winning, Cavalluccio is 31621233 in his last eight and Ludo's Landing has been third in each of his last two outings.

As stated above, Fearless Bay hasn't been seen since winning at Southwell in October 2022 and both Wonder Starelzaam and Obsidian Knight have been off the track for over eight months, whilst the other seven runners here have all raced in the last two to four weeks.

As well as possibly being rusty, Wonder Starelzaam won't be helped by a step up in class and Wyvern and Boasty also step up a level here, but Bass Player is down one grade for this one.

Isle of Sark, Bass Player, Wyvern and Ludo's Landing have yet to win over this trip, whilst Fearless Bay, Cavalluccio and Boasty have all won over course and distance in the past, but four of this field have never been to Chelmsford before, as shown below on the Instant Expert feature...

...which seems to suggest a big run is coming from Fearless Bay and had this not been a comeback run, I'd have been all over those numbers, but the lay-off is a big concern for me. Visibility and Boasty's joint return of 8 wins from 88 standard going races makes them look vulnerable here and added to a 1 from 17 record at Class 4, Visibility joins Fearless Bay as a horse I just can't back here and this decision looks vindicated by his two-year place stats (also from Instant Expert)...

...from which, I'd probably only want to focus on the following...

...giving me runners in stalls 1, 3, 5, 6, 7 and 10, so a wide spread for a race that has, in the past, favoured those drawn in stalls 1-3 for win purposes and those in 1-7 for the places...

...BUT I'm of the opinion that over a trip beyond a mile here at Chelmsford that it's pace that wins the race and that doesn't always mean how fast they go. I'm referring to the whole pace of the race, the tactics/running styles used etc and if we look back over those races from the draw analysis above, we see the usual Chelmsford ace bias in operation...

Irrespective of draw here, you've really got to be up with a pace to give yourself the best chance of winning and based in the field's last few runs...

...Boasty and Ludo's Landing might be the ones to set the fractions.

Summary

Isle of Sark, Cavalluccio and Ludo's Landing are the ones bringing the best recent form to the table and all three emerged unscathed from Instant Expert along with Bass Player, Wyvern and Boasty. Wyvern and Boasty seem to have the best draw with the latter fitting the pace profile best of all.

For me, it's Cavalluccio's race to win/lose, he's the form horse and isn't badly treated on pace/draw.

As for the others mentioned here, Wyvern is massively up in trip, bang out of form and will have too much work to do from the back, so he's out. Bass player makes little appeal other than his two-year place record and has run poorly in his last two, so he's also out. This leaves us with Isle of Sark, Ludo's Landing and Boasty. Boasty's certainly not my idea of a winner, Isle of Sark always finds one (or two) too good for him and his mark is rising without winning and Ludo's Landing is the weaker of the three form horses.

The Wednesday 4pm market looked like this with only Bet365 open...

11/4 looks a bit mean about Cavalluccio and I was rather hoping for something closer to 4/1, so I might keep my powder dry there. Isle of Sark is no price at 7/2 in my book for a horse that doesn't win and Ludo's Landing isn't backable from an E/W perspective either. I do however agree with the bookie's 1-2-3 and if I did have a bet here, it'd just be a small E/W play on Boasty to see if he can turn his front-running into a place.

Racing Insights, Thursday 18/04/24

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Did you know that the Instant Expert tab is by far the most popular tab on the geegeez racecards?

That's because it has the ability to condense the entire form profile of every runner in the race into a single, easily digestible, view. The report covers the form in terms of wins (or places), runs, and win (or place) percentage for each of going, class, course, distance, and field size. It also compares today’s official rating with the horse’s last winning official rating. The display is colour coded: green for a higher percentage rate, amber for a middling percentage, and red for a low percentage. Horses with no form under a certain condition have grey figures.

IMPORTANT NOTE: Where a horse has no UK/Irish form – i.e. it is having its first run in Britain or Ireland under Rules – it will not show up on Instant Expert at all.

This GOLD feature is so important that we make freely available to ALL readers EVERY Thursday alongside our usual selection of FREE races which, for this Thursday are...

  • 3.35 Newmarket
  • 3.50 Cheltenham
  • 4.17 Ripon
  • 5.10 Clonmel

...from which I'm heading to the 4.17 Ripon, a 13-runner, Class 4, 4yo+ flat handicap over a straight 6f on heavy ground...

Last time results aren't great for this baker's dozen, with Illusionist's runner-up finish at Thirsk last week the only placed effort. He was only beaten by a short-head running on over 5f that day and off the same mark should be involved over the extra furlong. Almost half of this field are winless in seven or more races as Remarkable Force, Fools Rush In, Danzan, American Star, Illusionist and Braveheart Boy have beaten in each of their last 14, 19, 8, 10, 17 and 10 races respectively.

May Blossom, Remarkable force and Fools Rush In all make debuts for their new yards today and the latter has had wind surgery since his last outing. Most of these ran at Class 4 last time out, but Danzan drops down a class, whilst Thornaby Pearl steps up a grade.

Braveheart Boy is denoted on the card as being a fast finisher, but he might well need the run today after 244 days off the track, but he's not the only one without a run in the last eight weeks, as Bay Breeze, Danzan, Fools Rush In, May Blossom and American Star all return from breaks ranging from 166 to 201 days.

Most of the field have already won over today's trip, but May Blossom, Remarkable Force and Ey Up It's Maggie are the exceptions. the latter has, however, scored here at Ripon before now, albeit over 5f, whilst Bay Breeze, Fortamour and Thornaby Pearl have all won over course and distance as per feature of the day Instant Expert...

...which actually paints a fairly sorry picture. Bay Breeze and Fortamoour are both 4-time winners here at Ripon and have won five times at the trip, but there's not much to crow about here. A couple look interestingly weighted, as Illusionist and Fools Rush In are now rated at 15/16 pounds lower than their last win and Illusionist came very close last week, but I suspect/hope that the place stats give me more to work with...

...and they suggest that Danzan might be worth looking at from an E/W or place perspective here. Illusionist's case is further bolstered too. Course specialist Bay Breeze is in stall 1 today with the benefit of the rail alongside him, although as you'd expect on a straight run on difficult ground, there's not much advantage from any part of the stalls...

That's not the case from a pace perspective, though, as this is how those 28 races above have been won...

...which based on the field's more recent efforts is probably better news for those above the red line than below it...

Summary

He doesn't seem suited by that pace chart above, but Illusionist is probably the one to beat here, especially if he runs anything like he did last week. This is a pretty modest bunch of truth be told and the race shouldn't take that much winning. Elsewhere Bay Breeze loves this track, has the rail to keep him straight and should be up with the pace, so could be a possible E/W threat, as could Danzan, whose place stats on Instant Expert were probably the pick of the field, but you could probably make a tentative case for many of these, as they all seem much of a muchness.

The 5.00pm market from Bet365 (only book open) looked like this...

...and whilst I'm not surprised that Illusionist is the favourite, I was rather hoping he'd be a bit more attractively priced. That said, it's definitely his race to win/lose. Bay Breeze is too short to back E/W for my liking, but the 14's about Danzan is interesting, as is the same price about Grant Wood.

Not a race to dig too deep in the pocket for, mind.

Racing Insights, Thursday 11/04/24

/in /by

Did you know that the Instant Expert tab is by far the most popular tab on the geegeez racecards?

That's because it has the ability to condense the entire form profile of every runner in the race into a single, easily digestible, view. The report covers the form in terms of wins (or places), runs, and win (or place) percentage for each of going, class, course, distance, and field size. It also compares today’s official rating with the horse’s last winning official rating. The display is colour coded: green for a higher percentage rate, amber for a middling percentage, and red for a low percentage. Horses with no form under a certain condition have grey figures.

IMPORTANT NOTE: Where a horse has no UK/Irish form – i.e. it is having its first run in Britain or Ireland under Rules – it will not show up on Instant Expert at all.

This GOLD feature is so important that we make freely available to ALL readers EVERY Thursday alongside our usual selection of FREE races which, for this Thursday are...

  • 1.33 Taunton
  • 2.35 Limerick
  • 3.30 Aintree
  • 7.30 Chelmsford

...from which the clear highest-rated takes place just North of Liverpool city centre. The 3.30 Aintree is the Aintree Hurdle, a Class 1 (Grade 1 no less), 4yo+, hurdles contest over two and a half miles (plus 74 yards today for rail movements), taking in a dozen hurdles over a left handed track on soft ground, where one of these will trot away having netted just over £140k for their owner(s)...

Early indications are that this is expected to be a two-horse race between the Irish raiders Bob Olinger and Impaire et Passe, who are both expected to go off shorter than 2/1. This is unattractive to me in terms of picking/backing a winner, based on my staking levels, but it does open the prospect of an E/W bet at 8/1 or bigger, so let's go!

Langer Dan and Mahons Glory both won last time out, but the latter is the only runner in this field not to run at Class 1 last time out, as he comes here off the back of a Boxing Day, Class 3 hurdle win at Kempton, but he has won two of his last five, whilst the former scored at Cheltenham, becoming the first horse to land the Coral Cup on more than one occasion.

All eight have won at least one of their last five with only Nicky Henderson's Marie's Rock failing to complete their last race. She's one of two mares in the race, both trained by Nick henderson, who has won this race four times in the last six years, including 2022 and 2023. Marie's Rock's jockey Nico de Boinville was in the saddle last year, steering Constitution Hill home to victory. The other mare is the consistent (5 wins and 5 places from 10) Luccia.

The two mares get a 7lbs weight allowance here in a race where the two market principals are best off at the weights ahead of Luccia after the allowances are factored in. Most of the field ran at the Cheltenham Festival a month ago, but Bob Olinger and Impaire et Passe didn't visit HQ and last raced in the Irish Champion Hurdle at Leopardstown almost ten weeks ago, finishing second and third respectively, 5.5 and 10/5 lengths behind State Man, who then went to Cheltenham to win our Champion Hurdle. Luccia was a gallant third that day, beaten by just 3.5 lengths.

Only Mahon's Glory has yet to race this year, but he is one of just two (alongside Langer Dan) to have won over this course and distance, although all bar Neman Lion and Luccia have won over today's trip, as per Instant Expert...

...that said, neither have raced at this trip! The above graphic suggests that of the favourites, Impaire should feel more at home on the soft ground but Bob Olinger is also 3 from 3 over fences on soft ground. Beacon Edge looks like he might be outclassed here and Mahons Glory will find it tough to challenge, but as I'm after an E/W bet, let's look at place data...

...where, as you'd expect, most fare pretty well. I think it's the end of the road here for Beacon Edge, Langer Dan, Mahon's Glory and Marie's Rock, though, as Nemean Lion and Luccia look better E/W prospects so far, unless there's something radical in the pace stats to make me change my mind. I'm aware that this last pair haven't raced at this trip before, but is it better or worse to have not raced at the trip than it is to have tried and failed?

As it stands, this field's recent races suggest that there might well be some decent early pace...

...whilst off an admittedly small sample size of similar past races here at Aintree, early pace does seem to be the best tactic...

Summary

I agree with the pre-race judgement that this is likely to be a two-horse race between the Irish raiders Bob Olinger and Impaire et Passe and if pushed for a verdict, I'd have Impasse et Passe ahead of Bob Olinger here, but I doubt there'll be very much in it.

As for the places, I envisage another tight battle between Luccia and Nemean Lion. Luccia has ticked more boxes during my analysis, but has never been beyond 2m1f, whilst Nemean Lion was a runner-up over 2m5½f earlier this year. I do like Luccia more than Nemean Lion and she's technically 5lbs well in, so if she stays the trip, she'd be my E/W option. The Wednesday 3.30pm market looked like this...

...with Nemean Lion looking attractively priced too. I'll take Luccia, but I might take the Lion too!

 

Racing Insights, Thursday 04/04/24

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Did you know that the Instant Expert tab is by far the most popular tab on the geegeez racecards?

That's because it has the ability to condense the entire form profile of every runner in the race into a single, easily digestible, view. The report covers the form in terms of wins (or places), runs, and win (or place) percentage for each of going, class, course, distance, and field size. It also compares today’s official rating with the horse’s last winning official rating. The display is colour coded: green for a higher percentage rate, amber for a middling percentage, and red for a low percentage. Horses with no form under a certain condition have grey figures.

IMPORTANT NOTE: Where a horse has no UK/Irish form – i.e. it is having its first run in Britain or Ireland under Rules – it will not show up on Instant Expert at all.

This GOLD feature is so important that we make freely available to ALL readers EVERY Thursday alongside our usual selection of FREE races which, for this Thursday are...

  • 3.10 Naas
  • 3.55 Warwick
  • 4.15 Naas
  • 4.38 Clonmel
  • 8.00 Wolverhampton

...from which, I've selected the 8.00 Wolverhampton, a 9-runner, Class 6, 4yo+ A/W handicap over a left-handed 1m1½f on standard tapeta...

My immediate thoughts were that this looks pretty open for a lowly Class 6 contest, but that the winner might well come from the bottom end of the card, although only 6lbs separates the first eight of the nine runners, of whom Classic Speed and Crafter both won last time out.

Malacanne and Snooze Lane both won two starts ago and the latter made the frame here over course and distance last time out, whilst top-weight Coolree was a runner-up on his last start and now wears blinkers for the first time in a bid to end a run of seven defeats. Light Up Our Stars and Zumaaty are also on long losing runs, having lost 12 and 10 on the bounce respectively. Both of these should benefit from a drop in class and three others (top-weight Coolree, The Pug & Graffiti) also all drop down from Class 5 here, whilst Graffiti will now carry a 7lb claimer effectively taking him back to his last winning mark (7 off 65 today vs 3 off 61 over course and distance in November).

All nine runners have been seen inside the last 7-33 days, so fitness shouldn't be an issue for any of them and more than half (5) of the field have already scored over course and distance, but Coolree, The Pug and Classic Speed have yet to win over either track or trip, whilst Light Up Our Stars has won here over 7f and 1m½f, albeit not since October. and these course/distance wins (or lack of) lead us nicely into our feature of the day, Instant Expert...

...which says that over the last couple of years, most of this field have performed reasonably well under today's conditions, although Coolree is 0 from 7 on the A/W. Light Up Our Stars is 3 from 21 here at Wolverhampton, but has won just 1 of 13 here over the last two years and has been beaten in all six efforts at similar trips. The Pug is also light on wins at track/trip, but has three wins in this grade. That said, none of them are in the red at Class 6, as Coolree drops to this level for the first time and we've no red at all from the bottom four in the weights.

From a place perspective, those races above highlight the consistency of Graffiti, Crafter, Zumaaty and The Pug...

Of those four regular placers, Zumaaty, Crafter and Graffiti are drawn lowest of all nine runners here, but our draw analyser suggests that horses coming from the centre of the stalls might have more going for them in terms of assistance from the draw...

And if we look at how those 150+ races have been won, we're told that whilst there's not a huge pace bias, horses running just off the leaders or in mid-division have fared best...

...suggesting that leaders make the frame quite often, but appear to get overhauled mate on (only 30% of placers were winners), whilst prominent runners make the frame more often and win more often overall. Yet, it's the mid-division runners who convert more places (38.8%) into wins. The inference about hold-up horses is that they end up with too much work to do, which based on recent outings...

...might not great news for Crafter, nor Classic Speed, yet the collective pace/draw heat map from those previous Wolverhampton races would suggest that Classic Speed could do very well here along with The Pug, Graffiti and Light Up Our Stars, who appear to be best suited...

Summary

The ones who caught the eye on form were Classic Speed and Crafter who both won last time out, along with Snooze Lane ( a win and a place from his last two) and Graffiti (placed twice in his last three), whilst it was Graffiti, Crafter, Zumaaty and The Pug who were highlighted by Instant Expert. The pace/draw heat map seems to favour Classic Speed, The Pug, Graffiti and Light Up Our Stars and it is from these three categories that I'm going to choose.

Classic Speed, Crafter and The Pug are all mentioned twice there, but Graffiti is the one that would appear to tick all three boxes.

I'd no odds available at 4.15pm on Wednesday, but a tissue made up from the average odds predicted by Oddschecker, Timeform and the Racing Post looked like this...

Classic Speed 10/3
Crafter 4.17/1
Snooze Lane 4.67/1
Graffiti 6.83/1
Coolree 7.33/1
Malacanne 10.33/1
Zumaaty 11/1
Light Up Our Stars 16.67/1
The Pug 22.33/1

...and if that's anywhere near accurate, I'd be interested in Graffiti as a winner (E/W if he gets close to 8's) and a cheeky E/W punt on The Pug (especially as SkyBet are paying four places), but I'll need to check the prices later before doing anything, of course!

Racing Insights, Thursday 28/03/24

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Thursday's free feature, the Instant Expert racecard tab is one of Geegeez readers' most popular tools because it has the unique ability to condense the entire form profile of every runner in the race into a single, easily digestible, view covering the form in terms of wins (or places), runs, and win (or place) percentage for each of going, class, course, distance, and field size.

It also compares today’s official rating with the horse’s last winning official rating. The display is colour coded: green for a higher percentage rate, amber for a middling percentage, and red for a low percentage. Horses with no form under a certain condition have grey figures.

IMPORTANT NOTE: Where a horse has no UK/Irish form – i.e. it is having its first run in Britain or Ireland under Rules – it will not show up on Instant Expert at all.

We make this feature freely available to ALL readers EVERY Thursday for ALL races, including, naturally, our selection of 'free' races as follows...

  • 3.55 Wetherby
  • 5.50 Clonmel
  • 7.30 Southwell
  • 8.00 Southwell

...and I suspect that of the races above, we'll get more Instant Expert data from the 8.00 Southwell, a 10-runner, Class 4, 4yo+ A/W handicap over a left-handed 6f on standard tapeta...

Our sole LTO winner, Glamorous Express has won three of his last seven and comes here on a hat-trick after wins at both Kempton and Newcastle this month. Westmorian and Digital both had top three finishes last time around and were winners two and three races ago respectively, whilst One More Dream has two wins and two runner-up finishes from his last five runs. Conversely High Velocity, Temple Bruer and Em Jay Kay are winless in 7, 8 and 11 races respectively.

Temple Bruer's bid to break his losing run might be helped by dropping down a class and sole mare in the race, Miss Bella Brand is down two levels today. hat-trick seeker Glamorous Express moves the opposite way and steps up two classes, whilst Westmorian, Dandy's Derriere and out-of-form bottom-weight Em Jay Kay are all up one class.

Six of the fiedl have raced in the last three weeks, but Em Jay Kay has been away for two months and Miss Bella Brand for three months. It's 19 weeks since Digital last raced, during which time he has moved from Karl Burke to Ruth Carr and the longest lay off of all is the near five month absence of out-of-form Temple Bruer.

All ten runners have won at least once over today's trip and only three (Temple Bruer, Glamorous Express and Dandy's Derriere are yet to land a race here at Southwell. Admittedly that's off just 1, 0 and 3 previous visits respectively. Of the seven former Southwell winners, only three (Mountain Warrior, Miss Bella Brand and Em Jay Kay) have scored over course and distance at the same time and our two-year Instant Expert form overview looks like this...

...where Mountain Warrior looks the best suited from recent races. We're a bit shy on Class 4 wins across the board (4 from 30), if truth be told with Miss Bella Brand struggling the most at this grade. Overall Em Jay Kay looks the most vulnerable at 2 from 14 on standard going and 1 from 9 at 6f and that's from a career record of just 2 wins from 20, all on the A/W. He's still 2lbs higher than his last win, despite 11 consecutive defeats and I suspect that will become 12 today. He has however made the frame in half of his six course appearances including one win according to the place data from that above graphic...

In almost 60 similar races since the switch to tapeta here at Southwell, horses drawn higher have seemed to have been at a disadvantage, with those drawn beyond stall bearing the brunt as I suppose you'd expect with that left-hand turn...

That, of course doesn't mean that hat-trick seeker Glamorous Express can't win from stall 9, but his race tactics are going to have to be spot on from so wide out and in those 50-odd races above, it has paid to get out quickly...

and the more prominent a horse has raced, the better the chances of winning have been with hold-up horses faring really badly. So, i suppose the last thing you'd want is a highly-drawn hold-up horses, unless he was a really fast finisher who didn't mind a bit of traffic. The pace/draw heat map is pretty clear about what has and hasn't worked in those races above...

The fact that high drawn leaders have been the most successful would appear to flip the draw stats around and what that says to me is that the pace of the race holds greater value than the draw without saying we should ignore the draw of course. So, we now need to look at how this field normally races to make an informed decision about how we think they might run here...

...and it looks like Digital might well set the pace ahead of One More Dream with hat-trick seeking Glamorous Express and Temple Bruer closer to the rear of the field. If we re-arrange that pace chart into draw order, we get this...

Summary

Glamorous Express will be popular after two wins already this month, but he's up two classes, carries a penalty and seems badly suited by the pace/draw stats. Westmorian, Digital and One More Dream also come here in decent form. Digital and One More Dream both scored well on the place aspect of Instant Expert, but it was top-weight Mountain Warrior who was the IE pick of the pack.

The pace/draw stats pointed to Digital, Miss Bella Brand, Dandy's Derriere, One More Dream, Westmorian and Mountain Warrior having the best chances and on the basis of who's ticking the most boxes it's the names of Digital and One More Dream who feature most followed by Mountain Warrior and Westmorian.

I'd expect One More Dream to fare better here than Digital, so he'd be my pick today.

I looked at he market at 4pm, but no prices were available and having looked at a few tissues, I expected the market to look something like...

Westmorian 10/3-7/2
Glamorous Express 4/1-9/2
One More Dream 5/1
Mountain Warrior 17/2
Dandys Derriere 19/2
Digital 19/2
Temple Bruer 12/1
Em Jay Kay 16/1
Miss Bella Brand 17/1
High Velocity 18/1

...and I was going to suggest One More Dream at 5's as my pick with E/W options from Mountain Warrior and Digital with Westmorian being too short.

However, Bet365 went 'live' just before I did and here are their prices as of 4.10pm...

...which are pretty close to the estimates, so I stick with my decision(s).

Racing Insights, Thursday 21/03/24

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Thursday's free feature, the Instant Expert racecard tab is one of Geegeez readers' most popular tools because it has the unique ability to condense the entire form profile of every runner in the race into a single, easily digestible, view covering the form in terms of wins (or places), runs, and win (or place) percentage for each of going, class, course, distance, and field size.

It also compares today’s official rating with the horse’s last winning official rating. The display is colour coded: green for a higher percentage rate, amber for a middling percentage, and red for a low percentage. Horses with no form under a certain condition have grey figures.

IMPORTANT NOTE: Where a horse has no UK/Irish form – i.e. it is having its first run in Britain or Ireland under Rules – it will not show up on Instant Expert at all.

We make this feature freely available to ALL readers EVERY Thursday for ALL races, including, naturally, our selection of 'free' races as follows...

  • 3.15 Chepstow
  • 3.58 Cork
  • 5.20 Ludlow
  • 8.30 Southwell

...from which I think we'll have a look at the Ludlow Gold Cup, aka the 5.20 Ludlow, an 8-runner, Class 4, 5yo+ Open Hunters Chase, taking in 16 fences over a right-handed 2m4f on soft ground...

...where I suspect that both Espoir de Guye and Before Midnight will go off at rather short odds, but that leaves the door open for a possible E/W punt, of course.

Espoir de Guye actually won last time out, as did Shang Tang, but none of the other six even made the frame with half of the field (Captain Tommy, Dalahast, Hazard Collonges and Missed Tee) all being pulled up. Captain Tommy did win two starts ago, but most of these are struggling for form right now.

Espoie de Guye, Royal Act and Missed Tee are all up a class here, but Shang Tang drops down a level whilst both Before Midnight and Dalahast drop down two classes, with only joint top weight Captain Tommy and Hazard Collonges having raced at class 4 last time around. Hazard Collonges has struggled to complete races of late and now wears cheekpieces for the first time as he also seeks to defy a near 16-week layoff.

Royal Act and Before Midnight have been rested for 58 & 80 days respectively, but the other five have all had a run in the last month or so. It's not a handicap contest, of course, which means that Before Midnight is best off at the weights carrying just 11-12 despite a rating of 129, putting him7lbs better off than next best Espoir de Guye, but Espoir is one of just three runners here (along with Shang Tang and Missed Tee) to have won at a similar trip to this one, whilst only Captain Tommy (via a 3m Hunter Chase last month) has tasted success at this track. That said, only Royal Act, Shang Tang and Missed Tee have tackled fences here before according to Instant Expert...

Instant Expert is often good at helping us pick a winner or narrow down the field and it's more of a narrowing job today with all that red above! Most of these are very inexperienced under these conditions so to be 0 from 2 or 3 is no great disaster just yet, but I am more concerned about Captain Tommy, Royal Act and Before Midnight on soft ground, Royal Act at this grade and trip, whilst Before Midnight hasn't won at this trip either in six attempts, although he has made the frame in half of them...

...and if it's an E/W challenger we're looking for, then Captain Tommy must now have jumped the queue somewhat. Royal Act still looks poor and I certainly won't be backing him and I do still have reservations about Before Midnight on this soft ground. That said, he is best off at the weights and does drop two classes here and our Pace Analyser says he'll be right in the mix if he's prepared to hit the front end early doors...

Unfortunately for him, he's not that type at all and tends to race in mid-division or at least has done in his more recent efforts...

...with the pace chart suggesting that Royal Act will attempt to set the tempo of the contest with the likes of Captain Tommy and Espoir de Guye in fairly close attendance. Royal Act has set the pace in each of his last four outings and they have seen him pulled up 4 out at Ffos Las and then beaten three times by 53, 83 and 69 lengths respectively, so I'm not too concerned about him 'nicking it' from the front!

Summary

The early (only Bet365 had odds at 5.10pm Wednesday) indications are that the bookies expect a tight two-horse race and that Royal Act is indeed, a no-hoper here...

...but I'm not convinced that Before Midnight gets near to Espoir de Guye today. I'm certainly not backing Espoir here, but he's far more likely to win than any of the others and is my 'pick'. From the evidence above, you won't be too surprised to read that Captain Tommy would be my E/W horse in this one and he could even challenge for the runner-up spot of things fall his way.

Racing Insights, Thursday 14/03/24

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Thursday's free feature, the Instant Expert racecard tab is one of Geegeez readers' most popular tools because it has the unique ability to condense the entire form profile of every runner in the race into a single, easily digestible, view covering the form in terms of wins (or places), runs, and win (or place) percentage for each of going, class, course, distance, and field size.

It also compares today’s official rating with the horse’s last winning official rating. The display is colour coded: green for a higher percentage rate, amber for a middling percentage, and red for a low percentage. Horses with no form under a certain condition have grey figures.

IMPORTANT NOTE: Where a horse has no UK/Irish form – i.e. it is having its first run in Britain or Ireland under Rules – it will not show up on Instant Expert at all.

We make this feature freely available to ALL readers EVERY Thursday for ALL races, including, naturally, our selection of 'free' races as follows...

  • 1.10 Hexham
  • 3.30 Cheltenham
  • 5.45 Southwell
  • 6.15 Southwell

...and I suppose it would be rude of me to ignore the Festival completely this week, so why don't I cast my amateur eye (plenty of pro analysis elsewhere on Geegeez!) over the 3.30 Cheltenham? 12 runners are set to go to post for the Grade 1 PP Stayers Hurdle over a left-handed three miles on soft/heavy ground with more rain expected...

Crambo, Noble Yeats, Sir Gerhard and Teahupoo all won last time out, whilst Asterion Forlonge and Paisley Park were both runners-up. Paisley Park has actually been a runner-up in each of his last three and most recently here over course and distance in the Grade 2 Cleeve Hurdle, half a length being Noble Yeats, but is now 6lbs better off. Flooring Porter (winner of this race is 2021 & 2022) and Janidil also made the frame last time around, whilst Buddy One is the only runner here who didn't complete his last race, being pulled up before the last in Leopardstown's Grade 1 Jack de Bromhead Christmas Hurdle.

All horses will carry 11st 10lbs here, but the assessors have the field rated 10lbs from top to bottom with Teahupoo's OR of 162 the highest, 3lbs better than Sire du Berlais with Noble Yeats rated at 'just' 152.

We know that Flooring Porter won this race in 2021 and 2022, but we've four other course and distance winners in the race in the shape of last year's winner Sire du Berlais, Noble Yeats (from LTO), Buddy One and Paisley Park. Dashel Drasher (2m4½f hurdle) and Sir Gerhard (2m½f NHF & 2m5f hurdle) have also won on this track, whilst only Asterion Forlonge, Janidil and Sir Gerhard are yet to win over a similar trip in UK/Ireland.

Instant Expert suggests that both Dashel Drasher and paisley park have struggled to win races at this class and/or trip over the last couple of years, but that most of the field have had some joy on soft or heavy ground...

...whilst it's 3 years since Janidil last tackled a hurdle when beaten by 11 lengths as 5th of 19 in the Albert Bartlett here in the 2020 Festival.

As you'd expect from such a high class field, the place stats from those races above don't help me towards a winner or an E/W bet...

...but they do lead me to write Home By The Lee off at this stage.

The place data for similar contests here at HQ say that the further forward a horse runs, the greater its chances of making the frame, but that most runners come from off the pace, having raced in mid-division...

...which based on the field's last couple of outings suggests that whilst Dashel Drasher, Flooring Porter, Home By the Lee, Buddy One & Noble Yeats might well be ideally positioned to make the frame (4 places generally, 5 at SkyBet, of course!)

...they're probably susceptible to a late run for the win from one or more of Asterion Forlonge, Paisley Park, Sir Gerhard and Teahupoo.

Summary

My personal shortlist for the race wasn't too far away from the names taken from the pace chart above and consisted of Asterion Forlonge, Crambo, Flooring Porter, Noble Yeats, Paisley Park, Sire du Berlais and Teahupoo. This meant that Asterion Forlonge, Flooring Porter, Noble Yeats, Paisley Park and Teahupoo featured on both lists.

So, whilst I'd love to able to prove why Sire du Berlais might still have something to offer, I can't justify it if we're only going off the data above (no room for sentiment, eh?)

Of the five left under consideration, Teahupoo is probably the best horse in the race, but 7/4 is no kind of money for me to be involved with. I do like Noble Yeats, based on his course and distance win here last time out, but he only narrowly defeated Paisley Park that day and the latter isn't carrying a penalty this time. Asterion Forlonge's only Grade 1 win came four years ago, but he does make the frame regularly at this level, whilst Flooring Porter knows exactly what's needed here.

In the end, Teahupoo probably wins this, but based on the 5.45pm market...

...I'd still be interested in Flooring Porter, Paisley Park and Asterion Forlonge as E/W possibles with Noble Yeats just a tad too short, unless he drifts. Don't forget, it's 5 places if you can get on with SkyBet!

Racing insights, Thursday 07/03/2024

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Thursday's free feature, the Instant Expert racecard tab is one of Geegeez readers' most popular tools because it has the unique ability to condense the entire form profile of every runner in the race into a single, easily digestible, view covering the form in terms of wins (or places), runs, and win (or place) percentage for each of going, class, course, distance, and field size.

It also compares today’s official rating with the horse’s last winning official rating. The display is colour coded: green for a higher percentage rate, amber for a middling percentage, and red for a low percentage. Horses with no form under a certain condition have grey figures.

IMPORTANT NOTE: Where a horse has no UK/Irish form – i.e. it is having its first run in Britain or Ireland under Rules – it will not show up on Instant Expert at all.

We make this feature freely available to ALL readers EVERY Thursday for ALL races, including, naturally, our selection of 'free' races as follows...

  • 2.25 Wincanton
  • 3.45 Carlisle
  • 4.55 Carlisle
  • 7.oo Newcastle

...and whilst probably not the best race of the four, the one with most Instant Expert data to work with appears to be the 7.00 Newcastle, which is an 8-runner (hopefully good for E/W bettors), Class 6, 3yo A/W handicap over a straight 7f on standard tapeta...

My immediate thoughts were that this might end up being a two-horse race between our only LTO winner, the filly Sunblock and the consistent (placed in each of his last five) track specialist Likeashadow, who is our sole course and distance winner.

Redondo was a winner two starts ago and East Bank won on debut six races ago, but the field is pretty shy on 'recent' wins otherwise, as is often the case at Class 6. The top three in the weights, Mariamne, East Bank and Likeashadow all drop a class here with the latter now sporting blinkers for the first time. Bottom weight Ocean Bliss makes a debut in a visor and it's just a second handicap start for both Sunblock and Noble Consort.

Both Ocean Bliss and Sunblock were in action last weekend and most of the rivals have also raced in the last 14-44 days, but it's not inconceivable that (the so-far not so) Amazing Winnie might need the run after almost six months off. We know that Likeashadow loves it here (as Instant Expert will show below) and that he's the only course and distance winner in the line-up. Of his rivals, Sunblock's win over 7f at Wolverhampton last weekend is the only other distance win, whilst only one other has won here at Newcastle, as Redondo scored over a mile two starts ago and only failed by a head to 'double up' next/last time out.

We don't get a great detail from the win stats on Instant Expert, but the place stats should be more helpful...

On the win stats, I probably hold more sway with Likeashadow's full line of amber off more runs, than Redondo's line of green that weighs heavily on one win, but both also do very well on the place side of thing with Likeashadow the standout for me again, based on his sheer consistency over a dozen A/W runs, especially in his ten here at Newcastle where his form reads 8113422333 including 81423 over course and distance.

So, as things stand, we've Sunblock on form, Likeashadow on consistency and Likeashadow/Redondo on Instant Expert catching the eye. Now let's see what the draw/pace data might tell us.

The Draw Analyser says...

...showing a somewhat surprising bias for a straight seven furlongs, but the data is what the data is and could be good news for Sunblock & Redondo in stalls 6 & 7; Ocean Bliss is drawn widest of all, whilst the Pace Analyser says that those 130+races above have suited runners keen to get on with things, but that those setting the pace have often had a target on their backs...

...so an average pace score closer to 3.00 rather than 4.00 might be the answer and this is reflected in the dominance of the high-drawn prominent runner on the pace/draw heatmap below...

Sadly we're not going to get the perfect pace/draw setup from this field and I think we might have a falsely run race with only one runner showing much aptitude for early pace...

...although Redondo did lead for 6.5f of a one mile race in Navan three starts ago and a similar run here puts him right in the mix. Amazing Winnie isn't exactly a confirmed front runner anyway and on A/W debut after nearly six months off, I'm not sure she'd hold on to even a place anyway.

Summary

Prior to looking at pace/draw, my favoured trio were Sunblock, Likeashadow and Redondo and the latter pair of those three have got really good draws. We then look at pace and I can see this being a falsely run race, which often plays into the hands of those who are normally held up for a run, as they'll have less ground to make up on the leaders this time and all three of my trio have been held up three or more times in their last four outings.

I've seen nothing to change my mind so I'm sticking with Sunblock, Likeashadow and Redondo as my three from the field. I suspect it'll be tight between the first two with Redondo settling for the places and I'd expect Likeashadow to be more of a value option than Sunblock.

I'm out later this afternoon/evening at a function, so I'm early to press and as of 2.15pm, there were no odds available, but I'm happy with my selections and I'm hoping there's some E/W viability about them, especially Likeashadow.

 

Racing Insights, Thursday 29/02/24

/in /by

Thursday's free feature, the Instant Expert racecard tab is one of Geegeez readers' most popular tools because it has the unique ability to condense the entire form profile of every runner in the race into a single, easily digestible, view covering the form in terms of wins (or places), runs, and win (or place) percentage for each of going, class, course, distance, and field size.

It also compares today’s official rating with the horse’s last winning official rating. The display is colour coded: green for a higher percentage rate, amber for a middling percentage, and red for a low percentage. Horses with no form under a certain condition have grey figures.

IMPORTANT NOTE: Where a horse has no UK/Irish form – i.e. it is having its first run in Britain or Ireland under Rules – it will not show up on Instant Expert at all.

We make this feature freely available to ALL readers EVERY Thursday for ALL races, including, naturally, our selection of 'free' races as follows...

  • 3.32 Clonmel
  • 4.35 Wetherby
  • 5.30 Chelmsford
  • 7.00 Chelmsford

...the best of which looks like being the 4.35 Wetherby, a 9-runner, Class 3, 4yo+ handicap hurdle over a left-handed trip just 66yds shy of 2m4f on soft ground, that is already heavy in places...

Whilst War Soldier was a winner last time out, the form horse has to be North Parade who comes here on the back of a hat-trick of successes. As a n 8-race maiden, Paddy O'Mahler is the only one winless in their last seven races, a spell during which The Four Sixes and Hajey have won twice, War Soldier, North Parade and El Jefe three times with sole mare Windtothelightning winning four of seven.

The mare won her last race at Class 3 before finishing fourth at Class 2 and then she fell in a Listed race at Haydock recently, but she's back down two classes here today, whilst Hajey and North Parade step up one level. It's hard to see how Paddy O'Mahler finally gets off the mark here, though, as he steps up two classes. His shortest margin of defeat over hurdles is 14 lengths at Class 4 three starts ago and I'm happy to write off his chances here at Class 3.

Of the eight still 'under consideration', only The Four Sixes has yet to win over a similar trip, but his two wins came at 2m½f and 2m6f, so the trip shouldn't be beyond him. He has, however, already won here at Wetherby, scoring over 2m6f at this grade on soft ground when prevailing by six lengths on Boxing Day two starts ago and was in the frame LTO over 2m4½f here last time out. The other two previous course winners, top-weight Windtothelightning and War Soldier are both course and distance winners from three and one starts ago respectively.

Feature of the day, Instant Expert, says that over the last couple of years...

...Windtothelightning, The Four Sixes, War Soldier and North Parade have proven themselves best under expected conditions here, whilst Ubetya hasn't tackled a hurdle for exactly 4 years since our last "leap day" and his recent form over fences (53PP) hasn't been great. Hajey has a reasonable record, but El Jefe looks vulnerable above. The place stats suggest that most of them should go well on the soft/heavy ground...

...but 1st and 3rd from a 2m4½f race here (War Soldier & The Four Sixes) have the best set of figures along with top weight Windtothelightning and if recent efforts are repeated here, that re-opposing duo might find themselves being at the head of the chasing group behind likely pacemaker Hajey (who sadly seems to save his best work for Catterick)...

...and setting the pace could well be his best chance of winning on his course debut...

Summary

If we look back on recent form, historical form via Instant Expert  and pace suitability, two horses get a mention each time, War Soldier and The Four Sixes and this pair finished a length and a half apart here over course and distance last time out. The latter is technically 2lbs better off here, which could/would be vital but for a 3lb claimer taking the ride instead of the 5lb claimer from last time.

That said, today's jockey, Lewis Stones, is 1 from 1 on The Four Sixes, courtesy of a 2m6f win here two starts ago and I think that might just be enough to tip the balance. I suspect it'll be tight here, but I've a marginal preference for The Four Sixes over War Soldier. As for an E/W bet or even a candidate for those of you doing the tricast/trifectas, the market at 5.10pm...

...has Hajey as my most likely E/W option, but I think the bookies might have it right and that Windtothelightning could make the frame instead. In fairness, it's a tricky/competitive race to call with eight of the nine runners only separated by 5,5pts in the market based on best available odds.

Racing Insights, Thursday 22/02/24

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Thursday's free feature, the Instant Expert racecard tab is one of Geegeez readers' most popular tools because it has the unique ability to condense the entire form profile of every runner in the race into a single, easily digestible, view covering the form in terms of wins (or places), runs, and win (or place) percentage for each of going, class, course, distance, and field size.

It also compares today’s official rating with the horse’s last winning official rating. The display is colour coded: green for a higher percentage rate, amber for a middling percentage, and red for a low percentage. Horses with no form under a certain condition have grey figures.

IMPORTANT NOTE: Where a horse has no UK/Irish form – i.e. it is having its first run in Britain or Ireland under Rules – it will not show up on Instant Expert at all.

We make this feature freely available to ALL readers EVERY Thursday for ALL races, including, naturally, our selection of 'free' races as follows...

  • 3.23 Thurles
  • 3.35 Huntingdon
  • 4.05 Huntingdon
  • 4.53 Thurles

As most of you already know, I'm not a big fan of Irish racing (each to their own and all that) and with the lack of 'free' UK card available to me at the time of posting (the free list will repopulate later, don't worry), I've got carte blanche to pick any race to cover and the day's highest rated race in the UK is the 6.00 Newcastle, where I suspect Cover Up might be a warm favourite to land this 8-runner (poss E/W bets?), Class 3, 4yo+ A/W handicap over a straight 5f on standard tapeta...

Cover Up won last time out and is three from his last five and comes here on a hat-trick, whilst Moon Flight also won last time out and has two wins and two runner-up finishes from his last four. Clearpoint made the frame on his last outing and is three from five and only top-weight Exalted Angel is without a win in seven or more, having lost 25 on the bounce in just over three years.

Exalted Angel is the only one of the eight not moving in class today as Intervention, Clearpoint (on yard debut for Simon Hodgson) and Lord Riddiford (licence rather than trainer change for this one) all drop down from Class 2, whilst hat-trick seeking Cover Up, Jump The Gun and fast-finishing pair Moon Flight & Pockley all step up from Class 4.

All eight have raced in the last 5 (Intervention) to 33 (Clearpoint/Lord Riddiford) days, so no layoffs to over come and Clearpoint, Cover Up (LTO), Moon Flight (also LTO) and Pockley have all won over this course and distance. Jump the Gun has won here over 6f (last November) and both Exalted Angel and Lord Riddiford have 5f Tapeta wins under their belts (Southwell and Wolverhampton respectively), but Intervention has won at neither track nor trip; he does however have 7 wins on tapeta over 6f/7f from 26 attempts at a very healthy 26.92% strike rate...

Clearpoint and Cover Up are the Instant Expert eyecatchers with lines of green, even if they are both 5lbs higher than their last A/W winning marks. Exalted Angel and Lord Riddiford have gone a long time since they last won an A/W contest, hence the latter's 10lb drop in ratings from his last win and whilst Pockley has won four times on this track, he prefers it slower than standard. If we then look at the place form from those races above...

...we could add the names of Intervention and Moon Flight to our list Instant Expert possibles alongside Cover Up and Clearpoint, giving us runners in stalls 1,2, 6 and 7 and somewhat surprisingly for a straight 5f sprint, there is a bit of a draw bias, favouring Intervention and Clearpoint here...

Now the draw stats from those 100+ races might have surprised a few of you, but I'm pretty sure the pace data from those races won't raise many eyebrows...

...which is pretty much as you'd expect, especially from a win perspective, which shows more bias than the place stats do, as leaders win 1.76 times more often than hold-up horses, but actually only place 1.3 times more. And if the isolated stats for the draw and the pace above are combined, the resulting heat map will probably not surprise you either...

...with the red box being the preferred combinations. We know how the field will line up ie

...so if we can place them onto the heat map, we can hopefully make a reasoned assumption to the outcome. Thankfully we also log how each horse has approached past races and their recent efforts look like this...

...with long-time loser Exalted Angel and three of my four from Instant Expert looking like the ones who'll be setting the pace and in terms of that pace/draw heat map...

Summary

Cover Up and Moon Flight both won last time out, but Clearpoint is also in good nick and he scored well on Instant Expert, as did hat-trick seeking Cover Up, of course, whilst Moon Flight and Intervention had good place stats. Of these four, Intervention and Clearpoint seemed to be more favoured by the draw, whilst the pace data was also against Moon Flight.

The pace/draw heat backed that up leaving me with three to choose from (in draw order) Cover Up, Intervention and Clearpoint. It would be easy/lazy to just suggest Cover Up wins again here, based on form, but let's not forget that he's up in class and also up 5lbs for just a half length win.

He probably should win here, but the 5.40pm odds ranging from Evens to 13/8 don't really excite me, but I am interested in the other pair. Clearpoint and Intervention can be backed at 7/1 and 9/1 respectively and whilst they might not beat the fav, I think they're both decent E/W alternatives and you never know... 😉

 

Racing Insights, Thursday 15/02/24

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Did you know that the Instant Expert tab is by far the most popular tab on the geegeez racecards?

That's because it has the ability to condense the entire form profile of every runner in the race into a single, easily digestible, view. The report covers the form in terms of wins (or places), runs, and win (or place) percentage for each of going, class, course, distance, and field size. It also compares today’s official rating with the horse’s last winning official rating. The display is colour coded: green for a higher percentage rate, amber for a middling percentage, and red for a low percentage. Horses with no form under a certain condition have grey figures.

IMPORTANT NOTE: Where a horse has no UK/Irish form – i.e. it is having its first run in Britain or Ireland under Rules – it will not show up on Instant Expert at all.

This GOLD feature is so important that we make freely available to ALL readers EVERY Thursday alongside our usual selection of FREE races which, for this Thursday are...

  • 2.20 Clonmel
  • 2.55 Clonmel
  • 3.47 Southwell
  • 4.00 Newcastle
  • 4.05 Clonmel

...from which I think I'll take a look at the 3.47 Southwell, 10-runner, Class 4, 4yo+ A/W handicap over a left-handed 6f on standard tapeta...

Bottom weight Hiatus was a winner last time out and Northern Spirit made the frame for the ninth time in his last eleven starts (inc 3 wins). Sluzewiec has yet to win any of five UK outings, but did win six starts ago in France, whilst Gulliver, Grenham Bay and Seven Brothers have failed to win any of their last 8, 12 and 11 races respectively.

Seven Brothers' bid to break his cold spell might not be helped by not having had a run for almost eight months, whilst Northern Spirit also returns from 20 weeks off the track. The rest of the field have all raced in the last month with She's Centimental turned back out just five days after her last run.

Evocative Spark and Sluzewiec are the only two in this field yet to win over this trip, whilst previous Southwell winners Gulliver, Billyjoh, She's Centimental and Hiatus are all course and distance winners and these are highlighted on Instant Expert...

...where Evocative Spark's numbers over the last couple of years haven't been great under today's conditions in general. Gulliver, Grenham Bay and Hiatus haven't won many on standard going and the latter two have struggled in this grade, as has She's Centimental, but she interests me with her four wins over today's trip. Sadly she has only made the frame once in her seven defeats at this trip and it is Northern Spirit who catches the eye on the place data...

...although he is shown as being some 11lbs higher than his last A/W win, but he is only 8lbs higher than his last turf win and has finished third in each of his last two outings, both off today's mark. He's drawn pretty much slap bang in the middle of the stalls in box 5 for a contest where it has been more favourable to be drawn in stall 7 or lower over the last couple of years...

Those same races have also suited horses keen to get on with things...

...making this draw/pace heat map less than surprising...

...where runners drawn mid to high with a hold up running style have really struggled. We know how this field have approached their last four outings...

...which sadly shows a distinct lack of early pace, suggesting that we might well get a falsely run race.

Summary

Sadly, I haven't picked a great race to analyse, which is the risk I take by doing the piece on a 'live' basis. My thoughts here are that Northern Spirit should be the best runner in the race, but has tended to find one or two a bit too good for him, especially off his current career high mark. He hasn't raced for over 20 weeks and all things considered, 7/2 is a little on the short side. Billyjoh is even shorter as the 13/8 favourite and that looks a bit tight based on his last run, so he's not for me.

That then does leave us with eight runners priced at 8/1 or bigger and there could well be some E/W action and whilst I'm probably going to sit this one out, the ones that I'd be interested would probably be She's Centimental and LTO course and distance winner Hiatus, who both opened up at 8/1 with bet365.

Racing Insights, Friday 09/02/24

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Friday's free feature, the Horses for Courses (H4C) report does exactly what it says on the tin ie it shows the full course history since 2009 of any horse running that has previously had a run at the track and is sorted by number of wins, but this can be changed to any column at your discretion.

As well as today’s race time, course, horse name, jockey and trainer name, there is a breakdown of runs, wins and places, and profit and loss calculations for both win and each way betting and as with all Geegeez reports, there is a ‘Today’ and a ‘Tomorrow’ (for the next day’s racing) view.

HINT: Layers might like to look towards the lower end of the report, for those with negative performance at the track, but as ever please refer to our User Guide for further information!

My own settings (you get to choose your own parameters) for the H4C report...

...are quite restrictive and have produced just one qualifier...

Our daily feature is always supplemented by a number of 'free' racecards...

  • 1.40 Kempton
  • 2.10 Kempton
  • 2.20 Bangor
  • 3.20 Bangor
  • 4.50 Kempton

...I was going to see if I could find myself an E/W selection or two in the North Wales National, but that's fallen by the wayside now and I'll switch attention to Master of Combat from the H4C report and the 4.07 Wolverhampton, a 12-runner, Class 4, 4yo+ A/W handicap over a left-handed 1m1½f on standard tapeta...

This looks a really competitive affair for a Class 4 handicap and plenty will fancy their chances, but only top-weight Wadacre Gomez won last time out and he's two from three. Featured runner Master of Combat (winner of 3 from 7), Arcadian Nights and Light Up Our Stars all had top three finishes on their last outings.

Law Supreme has failed to win any of his five starts in the UK and has now lost 8 in a row, whilst Buxted Too, Arcadian Nights and Light Up Our Stars are all on winless runs of nine, seven and seven races respectively and with Light Up Our Stars now stepping up in class, I'm not sure he's going to snap that cold spell.

Better news for the fast finishing pair Master of Combat and Ernie's Valentine, who both drop down a class as does Buxted Too who at five weeks since his last run, is actually the longest rested of the whole field. he has yet to win at either track or trip, but Master of Combat and Arcadian Nights are both course and distance winners, whilst Ernie's Valentine, the first-time tongue-tied Eagle Day and Light Up Our Stars have all already won over 1f shorter (1m½f) here at Wolverhampton and those course wins are highlighted below by Instant Expert...

Master of Combat's better form has come over slightly shorter trips, whilst Ernie's Valentine has struggled at both going/class. Arcadian Nights is a Class 5 runner in reality and his better Wolverhampton efforts are well over 2yrs ago. Hale End and Law Supreme both have full lines of red from a small sample size and Light Up Our Stars looks generally weak across the board, despite a 20% strike rate on standard going.

The place stats from those races above look like this...

...and if I was to split that in half, these would be the half dozen who look best on that data...

They're strung across the track in stalls 1, 2, 4, 5, 7 and 10, so if the draw stats show a lower half bias, that could be good for me. Let's check over the last 200 or so similar races...

Not exactly a low bias or much bias at all if truth be told, but those drawn highest have fared less well than the others, so that's not great for Ernie's Valentine from my half dozen and if recent performances are anything to go by, then he's a likely back marker in the early stages here...

...which is also far from ideal over a course and distance that has favoured the runners up with or just off the pace...

Summary

Based on the above and using my shortlisted half-dozen, the one I like best is the 5/1 (bet365 @ 5.25pm) Wadacre Gomez. He won last time out, is two from three, his yard is in good form, he scored well on IE and might well get a very easy/soft lead here. I also like featured horse Master of Combat, but his lack of early pace and the extended trip have dissuaded me from backing him to win this and at 7/1, he's no E/W play for me either, although he should make the frame.

Bet365 offer 4 places and 8/1 about Eagle Day, so that could well be a decent E/W bet, whilst I'm intrigued by the 20/1 offered about My Little Queen and I could well be tempted to have a couple of quid on that as an E/W option too. She's unlikely to win, but 20's looks far too big and the step up in trip should help her, as she has made the frame in half of her 16 races between 1m½f and 1m2f, winning three times.