Tag Archive for: Instant Expert

Racing Insights, Thursday 28/09/23

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Thursday's free feature, the Instant Expert racecard tab is one of Geegeez readers' most popular tools because it has the unique ability to condense the entire form profile of every runner in the race into a single, easily digestible, view covering the form in terms of wins (or places), runs, and win (or place) percentage for each of going, class, course, distance, and field size.

It also compares today’s official rating with the horse’s last winning official rating. The display is colour coded: green for a higher percentage rate, amber for a middling percentage, and red for a low percentage. Horses with no form under a certain condition have grey figures.

IMPORTANT NOTE: Where a horse has no UK/Irish form – i.e. it is having its first run in Britain or Ireland under Rules – it will not show up on Instant Expert at all.

We make this feature freely available to ALL readers EVERY Thursday for ALL races, including, naturally, our selection of 'free' races as follows...

  • 1.40 Bellewstown
  • 2.10 Pontefract
  • 4.10 Newmarket
  • 4.15 Clonmel
  • 4.30 Pontefract

The three free UK races above are a Class 6 Apprentice Handicap, a 4-runner affair and a Nursery respectively and none of those appeal to me at all, so with feature of the day in mind, I'm looking elsewhere and I've spotted something that piqued my interest.

The 7yr old mare Gale Force Maya was withdrawn from a race I covered last week, but she's set to re-appear in the 3.00 Newmarket on Thursday a race she won in 2021 and Instant Expert suggests she'll have favourable conditions (more on this shortly, of course!) again.

The race itself, is an 11-runner, Class 2, 3yo+ fillies' flat handicap over a straight 6f on good to firm ground that will be good in places due to the showers forecast...

Frankness is our sole LTO winner, but Al Simmo was a one-length runner-up behind her that day and Minnetonka also finished second on her last run. All bar featured horse Gale Force Maya, Sweet Harmony and Ivory Madonna have won at least once in their last seven outings, but this trio is winless in 7, 9 and 9 days respectively, the latter still being a maiden after 9 efforts.

In a bid to break her cold spell, Gale Force Maya will wear blinkers for the first time, whilst Kinta and Ivory Madonna will have their first outings in a hood and a visor respectively. The latter steps up one class here, as do River Pride and Alcazan, whilst Urban Decay is up two levels. Sweet Harmony, however, steps down to Class 2 after running in a Listed race at Ayr last week.

At 6 days rest, she's turned back out the quickest, although all the field bar Gale Force Maya (33 days off) have raced in the last three weeks. The latter's success in this race two years ago makes her the only previous course (and CD) winner, but all of her rivals except River Pride, Ivory Madonna and Urban Decay have scored over today's trip, as shown by Instant Expert...

Gale Force Maya is far more experienced under these conditions, but has a good set of results behind her and at 7lbs lower than her last winning mark, could well be dangerously weighted here. The only cause for concern from that data above is Alcazan's 1 from 9 on the going, but she has at least made the frame in two of the eight defeats, putting a slightly better perspective on her place stats...

...which again point to a big run from Gale Force Maya. Al Simmo's place percentages are even better than GFM's, though and if she's likely to do well, then we also need to add Frankness into the mix, as she beat Al Simmo last time out, but she is 3lbs worse off here. This trio are drawn pretty close together in stalls 4, 6 and 7 and our draw analyser suggests that Al Simmo (in #4) might have a bit of an advantage over the other pair...

...and this will be of interest to followers of River Pride, who has the rail and a decent set of Instant Expert place stats, but he'll have to be away sharper than he has in his last two outings...

...because those races I've used for the draw analysis have favoured those setting the pace...

...meaning that ideally we'd be on one drawn relatively low with a penchant for early speed...

...and with our race's heat map looking like this...

...some clearly make more appeal than others.

Summary

For me, based on the data above, it's Al Simmo for me at 5/1. She's in good nick and only lost narrowly last time out. She scored well on Instant Expert and seems to have the best pace/draw make-up of the field.

If Al Simmo is my pick, then Frankness won't be too far away based on their match three weeks ago. Gale Force Maya was the pick on Instant Expert, has won this race before and looks dangerously weighted, whilst Executive Decision has three wins and a runner-up finish from her last six efforts over a similar trip, so she can't be discounted either.

Al Simmo and this trio should contain the first three home and the challenging trio are currently 7/2, 7/1 and 7/1 respectively, so I wouldn't be suggesting Frankness as an E/W option.

Racing Insights, Thursday 21/09/23

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Did you know that the Instant Expert tab is by far the most popular tab on the geegeez racecards?

That's because it has the ability to condense the entire form profile of every runner in the race into a single, easily digestible, view. The report covers the form in terms of wins (or places), runs, and win (or place) percentage for each of going, class, course, distance, and field size. It also compares today’s official rating with the horse’s last winning official rating. The display is colour coded: green for a higher percentage rate, amber for a middling percentage, and red for a low percentage. Horses with no form under a certain condition have grey figures.

IMPORTANT NOTE: Where a horse has no UK/Irish form – i.e. it is having its first run in Britain or Ireland under Rules – it will not show up on Instant Expert at all.

This GOLD feature is so important that we make freely available to ALL readers EVERY Thursday alongside our usual selection of FREE races which, for this Thursday are...

  • 2.50 Listowel
  • 3.00 Ayr
  • 4.45 Ayr
  • 5.05 Yarmouth
  • 5.45 Listowel

On paper, the 'best' of the three UK races above (I rarely get involved in Irish racing) looks like being the first ie the 3.00 Ayr, a 9-runner, Class 2, 3yo+ flat handicap over a left-handed 1m2f on good/good to soft ground...

Cockalorum and Painters Palette boith won last time out and the latter is two from his last three. Elsewhere, Mr Alan won three starts ago, Austrian Theory won 6 races back and Auld Toon Loon has won two of five; the rest are winless of late.

Only three of the field raced at Class 2 on thier last outing as Cockalorum, painters palette and What's The Story all step up a class, whilst both Auld Toon Loon and Fools Rush In are up two levels, despite failing to make the frame last time out.

All bar Mr Alan have raced in the last 8 (Fools Rush In) to 38 (Cockalorum) days, but he might well need a run after a 265-day absence from the track. That said he has won here in the past, scoring over a mile almost two years ago. Two others have also won here, as both Euchan Glen and What's The Story are course and distance winners. Mr Alan, Auld Loon Toon and Cockalorum have also won over similar trips elsewhere.

Feature of the day, Instant Expert, looks like this for win and place percentages...

I'm always a little concerned when win percentages are shown as red after 10 races or more, which raised quite a few issues here, such as Euchan Glen (class), Austrian Theory (going), What's The Story (going/class/distance!), Cockalorum (going/class) and Fools Rush In (class). Euchan Glen looks the pick on course and distance, whilst his going stats are no worse than the others and he's the standout on the place data as the only one with no red!

Draw stats from previous similar contests suggest that those drawn lowest have fared the best...

...whilst the pace data suggests that leaders often struggle to hang on and eventually get beaten...

...so, when the pace draw heat map says that you're best off with those drawn low and running prominently, it doesn't come as much of a surprise!

...although hold-up horses drawn centrally have done pretty well too, so as we already know the draw, let's look at the field's recent pace profiles...

...with the three highlighted runners fitting the pace/draw heat map best.

Summary

Painters Palette brings the best form to the race and whilst his Instant Expert scores aren't brilliant, he hasn't had that many races under these conditions, but he does have the ideal pace/draw setup for this contest. In all, he'd be my one to beat, but his current (5.30pm) 11/4 price looks a little on the skinny side.

Austrian Theory also looks good on the heat map, but in the absence of front-running Marie's Diamond (non-runner), I suspect he'll end up being the pacemaker along with Auld Toon Loon and that's not normally a recipe for success here.

Euchan Glen, however, is likely to be towards the rear, an ideal spot for a centrally drawn runner. His recent form hasn't been great, but he does love it here, he's down in trip and Instant Expert gives him a great chance of making the frame, as do I. I don't place E/W bets at 6/1, so wouldn't be backing him, but I do think he'll make the frame.

I probably won't have an E/W bet here as only Austrian Theory (16/1), Thundering (20/1) and Fools Rush In (20/1) are longer than 6/1, but if I was to pick one of that trio to outrun the odds, it might well be Fools Rush In, receiving weight all round, but it's not a bet I'd be placing. Austrian Theory might well set the pace and cling on for a place if they don't come after him early, but again, it's be a watching brief for me here.

Racing Insights, Thursday 14/09/23

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Did you know that the Instant Expert tab is by far the most popular tab on the geegeez racecards?

That's because it has the ability to condense the entire form profile of every runner in the race into a single, easily digestible, view. The report covers the form in terms of wins (or places), runs, and win (or place) percentage for each of going, class, course, distance, and field size. It also compares today’s official rating with the horse’s last winning official rating. The display is colour coded: green for a higher percentage rate, amber for a middling percentage, and red for a low percentage. Horses with no form under a certain condition have grey figures.

IMPORTANT NOTE: Where a horse has no UK/Irish form – i.e. it is having its first run in Britain or Ireland under Rules – it will not show up on Instant Expert at all.

This GOLD feature is so important that we make freely available to ALL readers EVERY Thursday alongside our usual selection of FREE races which, for this Thursday are...

  • 3.25 Epsom
  • 3.35 Doncaster
  • 4.50 Naas
  • 5.00 Ffos Las
  • 5.35 Ffos Las

...and with an £82k, Class 1 contest on the free list, it would be remiss of me not to cover the Betfred Park Hill Fillies Stakes aka the 3.35 Doncaster. It's a 10-runner, Group 2 flat contest for fillies and mares aged 3 or over and they'll tackle a left-handed 1m6½f on good to soft/soft ground. Here's the card...

On results alone, Night Sparkle brings the best set of recent figures to the table, having won her last three on the Flat (last four overall), but she's the only class mover here, as she steps up from Class 3 for her debut for Andrew Balding's yard. Elsewhere, Sumo Sam made all to land the Gr2 Lillie Langtry Stakes at Goodwood over 1m6f on heavy ground, whilst Ching Shih, Divine Jewel and One Evening were all Class 1 runners-up with Crack of Light also making the frame on her last run. Those four ran at G3, Listed, Listed & Listed class respectively.

We've mentioned that Night Sparkle is up in class for her yard debut already, but I should add that Shamwari wears cheekpieces for the first time and she receives a useful 10lb weight allowance as one of five three year olds in the race, along with Boogie Woogie, Crack of Light, Lmay and Sumo Sam, although the latter bears a 3lb penalty for that excellent win six weeks ago, but still gets 7lbs from most of the field.

That win was 40 days ago and whilst some of the others appear to have been off track longer, those days since last run don't include overseas contests. If we include them, then Sumo Sam's 40-day rest is the longest of the ten runners, whilst Divine Jewel is the quickest back out, 12 days after a runner-up finish at Chester and her record over similar trips to this one is the best on offer today, according to Instant Expert...

In fairness, many of these are untried/untested at this longer trip, but both Night Sparkle and Sumo Sam have picked up wins under similar circumstances, whilst the place data looks like this...

...where only Lmay and possibly Golden Lyra look a little out of their depth/comfort zones. Lmay will be drawn widest of all ten runners, but I'm not convinced that the draw should play too big a role in a race of around a mile and three quarters, but we should always check the data, just in case...

...which is interesting. I'd not expected such a disparity from those drawn lowest, but the above is backed up by the PRB3 figures, which would appear to favour those drawn 4 or higher...

...although the places stats are less conclusive in that direction...

...whilst if we home in on the actual trip of this race, we're then told that front-runners haven't fared too well either...

...which doesn't bode well for the likes of Night Sparkle and/or Boogie Woogie if their recent outings are anything to go by...

...but if truth be told, not many of this field come out well on the pace/draw combo...

Those in the centre do seem to have the best of it, but only Golden Lyra, Boogie Woogie and Nighy Sparkle look out of it.

Summary

For a race of this 'quality' (although I suspect this is a poor renewal), we've not had much help from the data and it may well revert back to form and that unquantifable element : 'gut feeling' and my gut feeling here is that Sumo Sam, One Evening and Ching Shih would be the ones most likely to succeed.

The bookies agree to an extent, as that trio are 4/1, 7/1 and 15/2 respectively and with some firms paying four places, I'd also be interested in Crack of Light at 12/1, but it's not a race that I'll investing much time or money in/on.

Racing Insights, Thursday 07/09/23

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Thursday's free feature, the Instant Expert racecard tab is one of Geegeez readers' most popular tools because it has the unique ability to condense the entire form profile of every runner in the race into a single, easily digestible, view covering the form in terms of wins (or places), runs, and win (or place) percentage for each of going, class, course, distance, and field size.

It also compares today’s official rating with the horse’s last winning official rating. The display is colour coded: green for a higher percentage rate, amber for a middling percentage, and red for a low percentage. Horses with no form under a certain condition have grey figures.

IMPORTANT NOTE: Where a horse has no UK/Irish form – i.e. it is having its first run in Britain or Ireland under Rules – it will not show up on Instant Expert at all.

We make this feature freely available to ALL readers EVERY Thursday for ALL races, including, naturally, our selection of 'free' races as follows...

  • 2.40 Salisbury
  • 5.35 Carlisle
  • 5.45 Wolverhampton
  • 5.55 Clonmel
  • 7.15 Wolverhampton

I'm going to do things in a slightly different order today and I've no idea where it will take me/us! The whole premise of my column is that I put my actions into print in real time and sometimes I end up with nothing. This is perfectly fine, because if there's no bet you like, place no bet and move on!

The highest rated of the four UK races above is the 7.15 Wolverhampton and it also has the most Instant Expert data. The race itself is race 32 of this year's Racing League and it's an 11-runner, Class 3, 4yo+ A/W handicap over a left-handed 1m½f on standard tapeta and here's how the place data for Instant Expert looks for this race...

...where based on overall form, this trio catch the eye most...

...not withstanding that the first of the three has yet to win on the A/W, but has made the frame in all four career starts, whilst the other two are higher in the weights than their last A/W successes, but let's look at the whole card now...

We have no LTO winners here, but all bar Koy Roy and Cry Havoc have a win in their recent form line although both were placed on their latest outings. What's The Story has made the frame in each of his last three and Farasi Lane, Parlando were also placed last time out. There's no real standout on form and we've a real lack of past course/distance success too.

The field have 2 wins and 3 further places from 20 visits to Wolverhampton and have made the frame in 61 of 157 (38.9%) contests over 1m to 1m1f, winning 21 times at a rate of just 13.4, but Harswell Duke did win over this trip at Nottingham on soft ground in October of last year and Young Fire was a Class 5 course and distance winner here back in March.

Parlando last raced a week ago and United Front was seen ten days back, but the remainder have all had two to six weeks rest since their last efforts, from which five are now racing at a different class with Lir Speciale & United Front dropping down a level from Class 2 with Young Fire and the sole female, Cry Havoc both up one class. Night Arc is up two classes after finishing seventh at Newmarket shortly after winning a Class 4 contest, so I'm not sure what to make of him, other than to say he's inconsistent?

We've seen the place data from Instant Expert, but to complete that picture, here's the win percentages...

Not a lot to crow about there, but Lir Speciale is proven in this grade, whilst Hafeet Alain looks generally weak in this context. What's The Story and Young Fire have struggled on standard going with the latter also not faring too well at Class 3, although the former's place stats are far better. Perhaps he's more of a placer than a winner?

The draw has placed the IE weak-looking Hafeet Alain and the double-class riser Night Arc at opposite ends of the stalls, but the general draw data for similar handicaps over the last five years suggests there's not a great deal to be gained from stalls positions...

...although the actually stall-by-stall data & the PRB3 figures do say that those drawn higher than stall nine have tended to struggle and that makes sense, having to travel wider and/or further...

...so that might affect United Front's chances from stall ten. His best bet here in that case is to try and get out sharpish and keep in touch with the pack, as those races above haven't exactly been kind to hold-up horses...

...which doesn't bode well for the likes of Cry Havoc & Young Fire based on recent evidence...

If I was to discount that pair from my list of potential winners, based on pace alone and then remove United Front & Night Arc based on the draw, that leaves me with seven. Hafeet Alain looked weakest on Instant Expert and Cry Havoc is winless in seven. Although What's the Story has made the frame in half of his ten A/W starts, he has won just once, way back in June 2018 and has lost eight on the bounce since then, of which five were on tapeta.

Summary

I'm not saying that the discards can't make the frame, but I've enough reasons not to back any of them for the win, leaving just Lir Royale, Koy Koy, Harswell Duke, Farasi Lane and Parlando as potential winners.

And of those, Lir Speciale would be my pick. His A/W record reads 23311, of which he is 311 at Class 3 and although he's up in trip here, the reports from his last two outings/wins on the A/W read...pressed leader, led over 2f out, ran on well inside final furlong and good headway on inside over 2f out, led over 1f out, ran on well so the trip shouldn't necessarily be an issue here.

Hills are paying four places on this one and at 8/1, he'd be an ideal E/W bet if you're not entirely convinced about his win credentials. 8/1 is my general/nominal cut-off point for E/W bets, so that would currently discount the 5/1 What's The Story and the 6/1 United Front from my original 'trio of interest', but I'm happy to take the 9/1 about Parlando.

Others of possible interest would include Farasi Lane at 8/1 and Koy Koy at 12's.

 

Racing Insights, Thursday 31/08/23

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Thursday's free feature, the Instant Expert racecard tab is one of Geegeez readers' most popular tools because it has the unique ability to condense the entire form profile of every runner in the race into a single, easily digestible, view covering the form in terms of wins (or places), runs, and win (or place) percentage for each of going, class, course, distance, and field size.

It also compares today’s official rating with the horse’s last winning official rating. The display is colour coded: green for a higher percentage rate, amber for a middling percentage, and red for a low percentage. Horses with no form under a certain condition have grey figures.

IMPORTANT NOTE: Where a horse has no UK/Irish form – i.e. it is having its first run in Britain or Ireland under Rules – it will not show up on Instant Expert at all.

We make this feature freely available to ALL readers EVERY Thursday for ALL races, including, naturally, our selection of 'free' races as follows...

  • 2.35 Navan
  • 3.35 Navan
  • 5.06 Bath
  • 5.30 Stratford
  • 7.45 Newcastle

...and of the three UK races, the one with the most Instant Expert data to work with is also the highest rated of the trio. It's race 26 of the Racing League, aka the 7.45 Newcastle, a 13-runner, Class 3, 3yo+ A/W handicap over a left-handed 1m2f on standard tapeta...

New Dayrell won last time out to open his account at the seventh attempt, whilst Painters Palette also won, taking his 2023 record to 3 wins from 7. Storm Catcher has also won 3 of his last 7, as has Bashful, whilst Blue Yonder has won twice. Onesmoothoperator, Carolus Magnus, Wind Your Neck In and Cap Francais have lost their last 15, 10, 8 & 9 races repsectively.

Only Onesmoothoperator, Carolus Magnus and Roaring Gallagher ran at this Class 3 level last time out and the laatter now runs in a handicap for just the second time. Of the ten class movers, only Storm Catcher drops down from Class 2 with the other nine all up a level.

Onesmoothoperator is clearly on the cold list, but like Bashful, he at least won over this course and distance with only Miami Thunder of the others to have won on this track (over a mile two starts ago), but Storm Catcher, New Dayrell and Blue Yonder have won over this trip elsewhere.

The latter of those 1m2f winners, Blue Yonder has been off track the longest, but he really shouldn't have got rusty after just 54 days' rest with his rivals all having raced in the last five weeks.

Instant Expert has all the above course/distance wins logged and instantly highlights the poor record of top-weight Onesmoothoperator...

It's not the most inspiring set of numbers to base a bet (or not) on, but there's some green titbits to work with and some areas of concern like the records of Wind Your Neck In & Cap Francais at this trip, but I've a feeling that we'd be better off focusing on All-Weather place data...

...which somewhat remarkably shows Onesmoothoperator in a whole new light and on the A/W over trips of 1m2f to 1m4.5f, his ten runs have finished 1329222122. The 9th place was the only non-tapeta run and his Newcastle placings from that series are 1322, which is interesting to say the least. A few others are of interest and a this point, the ones I think I'd want to be working with are...

...who are drawn in stalls 2, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9 & 10, so I suppose I'm hoping that the extreme low & high stalls are generally unsuccessful over this track/trip, so let's check the data from our draw analyser...

...which does tend to suggest that I'm better off avoiding those drawn in the first four stalls, whilst the PRB3 data also says that those drawn 7 to 10 have gone well in the past...

That said, it's not all about the draw when you're racing over a mile and a quarter, as there should be adequate time to overcome a supposedly-poor draw, if you get the race tactics right and according to our pace analyser, those races above have firmly favoured the prominent runner who stalks the leader(s)...

 

..and I suspect off the basis of the field's last four (and more) outings that it might well be LTO winner and Tapeta-debutant New Dayrell who sets the fractions here...

...and our pace/draw heat map based on the data presented so far looks like this...

Summary

Miami Thunder is the one for me here. He's the best positioned on the pace/draw heat map, he's in good form with a win and a runner-up finish from his last two run, both here at Newcastle. He rarely runs a bad race on the A/W, having finished 232512 in his six efforts and at 13/2, he's almost in E/W territory, but I'll back him to win.

Most of the above tells me to avoid Onesmoothoperator, but as a believer in the old "Horses for Courses" adage, I keep coming back to him, purely on his place form here at Newcastle and on Tapeta in general and I think there's still every chance that he'll outrun his 16/1 to 20/1 price tickets. Most firms are paying four places, but with SkyBet paying five, I'd be taking a small E/W punt here at 16's.

Elsewhere, I'd expect the likes of Storm Catcher to finish somewhere between that pair above and as he's priced at 8/1 generally, he'd also be a good E/W chance with those firms paying four places.

 

Racing Insights, Thursday 24/08/23

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Thursday's free feature, the Instant Expert racecard tab is one of Geegeez readers' most popular tools because it has the unique ability to condense the entire form profile of every runner in the race into a single, easily digestible, view covering the form in terms of wins (or places), runs, and win (or place) percentage for each of going, class, course, distance, and field size.

It also compares today’s official rating with the horse’s last winning official rating. The display is colour coded: green for a higher percentage rate, amber for a middling percentage, and red for a low percentage. Horses with no form under a certain condition have grey figures.

IMPORTANT NOTE: Where a horse has no UK/Irish form – i.e. it is having its first run in Britain or Ireland under Rules – it will not show up on Instant Expert at all.

We make this feature freely available to ALL readers EVERY Thursday for ALL races, including, naturally, our selection of 'free' races as follows...

  • 1.50 York
  • 2.15 Chepstow
  • 5.30 Killarney
  • 7.40 Killarney
  • 7.55 Leopardstown
  • 8.35 Chelmsford

Our three UK free races are a Class 1 affair for 2 yr old fillies and a pair of Class 6 contests; none of which really appeal to me, so I'm done here today.

Only joking! I've decided to find an alternative race to look at from both a quality and an Instant Expert perspective and I've fell upon the 2.40 Stratford, a 7-runner (shame there's not 8, of course), Class 2, 4yo+ handicap chase, over a left-handed 2m3½f on good ground...

Presentandcounting won last time out and is two from three, but all seven have at least one win from their last five outings. The LTO winner is, however, up one class here, as is bottom-weight Sea Prince, whilst top-weight Hang In There, Tardree and sole mare La Domaniale all raced at Class 1 last time, as they finished 3rd, 6th and 9th in the 14-runner Summer Plate at Market Rasen, where Courtland (who won for us on Tuesday) was the runner-up.

That was 33 days ago and the entire field has raced in the last 23 to 53 days, they've also all won here at Stratford before with Presentandcounting, La Domaniale and Cracking Destiny being former course and distance winners. Hang In There and Tardree have won over a similar trip elsewhere.

Jockey Joe Anderson takes 5lbs off Emma Lavelle's top-weighted Hang In There, which should help his cause allied with that drop in class after being placed at Class 1 and Instant Expert says he's now 4lbs lower than his last winning mark...

Plenty of positives there, although Noahthirtytwored is better over hurdles than fences so far, but that 1 in 5 on good ground is tempered by him making the frame in 2 of the 4 defeats. Presentandcounting's two Class 2 chases have seen him finish 6th and 9th, but he was prolific at Class 3, making the frame in 8 of 9 attempts, winning 6 times, whereas Sea Prince's 1 from 7 on good ground represents his whole chasing career and on that basis alone, I'm ruling him out here, whilst I think the top three look strongest right now.

In similar past contests, the further forward a horse ahs raced, the better has been the chances of winning the race...

...but as long as you're not held-up, there's every chance of making the frame without leading...

If we look at the field's last few outings...

...then you'd probably want to consider the top four for a likely winner and also worry about Noahthirtytwored's chances of making the frame.

Summary

From Instant Expert I liked Hang In There, Presentandcounting and La Dominiale, whilst the pace stats pointed towards Tardree, Hang In There, Presentandcounting and Sea Prince with Hang In There and Presentandcounting scoring well on both counts. The latter is a former course and distance winner who has finished 121 in his last three, but is up in class and weight after demolishing a 3-runner contest at Perth recently, sauntering home by 38 lengths. The former didn't win last time out but ran a really good race to finish third in the Class 1 Summer Plate, just one place behind Courtland who won for us on Tuesday.

I suspect there'll be little between the pair, but if pushed for a selection, I think I prefer the class dropping 4/1 Hang In There off a mark lower than his last win, but the 5/2 fav Presentandcounting shouldn't be too far away.

Only seven go to post after the withdrawal of Vision des Flos, so we only get two places at the bookies, although Coral are paying four places. If you can place bets with them, then 17/2 E/W about the mare La Dominiale could well work.

Racing Insights, Thursday 17/08/23

/in /by

Thursday's free feature, the Instant Expert racecard tab is one of Geegeez readers' most popular tools because it has the unique ability to condense the entire form profile of every runner in the race into a single, easily digestible, view covering the form in terms of wins (or places), runs, and win (or place) percentage for each of going, class, course, distance, and field size.

It also compares today’s official rating with the horse’s last winning official rating. The display is colour coded: green for a higher percentage rate, amber for a middling percentage, and red for a low percentage. Horses with no form under a certain condition have grey figures.

IMPORTANT NOTE: Where a horse has no UK/Irish form – i.e. it is having its first run in Britain or Ireland under Rules – it will not show up on Instant Expert at all.

We make this feature freely available to ALL readers EVERY Thursday for ALL races, including, naturally, our selection of 'free' races as follows...

  • 3.40 Salisbury
  • 4.10 Salisbury
  • 4.35 Leopardstown
  • 6.30 Windsor
  • 8.05 Leopardstown

And although the Racing League is at Windsor on Thursday, the best of the UK races from the free list, despite having a small field, has to be the 4.10 Salisbury, a 6-runner, 3yo+, Group 3, Flat contest over a straight mile on good ground...

This initially looks like two races in one, with me agreeing with the early market in suggesting that the winner and placer(s) come from Regal Reality, Mighty Ulysses and Embesto, whilst Dancing Magic looks out of his depth, despite a 6lbs weight allowance, but let's have a closer look at the whole field...

REGAL REALITY is now 8yrs old and won a Group 3 race last time out, meaning he's now won one in each of the last six years. He won this race back in 2020 making him the only course and distance winner in the field and if not troubled by a 75-day absence, should be right in the mix despite a 3lb penalty for winning the Diomed at Epsom.

CHICHESTER makes a debut for the Johnston yard two months after his last run for Keith Dalgleish, which saw him win a Listed race at York. He's in good nick with tewo wins and two runner-up finishes from five runs this year, but it has to be said that his best form is at Class 2 and on the A/W. Was well beaten in a Gr3 at Sandown two starts ago.

MIGHTY ULYSSES won a Listed race at Newmarket last July thre weeks after finishing closer than 5th of 11 might suggest in the St James's Palace Stakes at Royal Ascot. He was, in fact, only 0.8 lengths behind the winner in a blanket finish where two lengths separated 1st and 7th. Was well beaten in a Gr2 race at Ascot a month ago, but can be excused on his first outing in 11 months. He should come on for that run as he drops in quality and wears cheekpieces for the first time.

POGO is a keen front-runner who made the frame in three group 2 races and won twice at Group 3 in a sustained run of form from August '21 to July '22. He was a runner-up another Gr2 this time last year, before winning one at Newmarket in October, but clearly needed the run when 10th of 12 at Ascot in June and was only 3rd of 6 at Newmarket last time out. Much will depend on whether he's allowed to dominate.

DANCING MAGIC is a 9-race maiden whose best effort was on his third start when a runner-up in a Listed event at Haydock almost a year ago. This will be his eighth attempt at winning a Class 1 contest and based on his 5th of 6, beaten by 9 lengths, in a Listed race at Newbury last month, he won't be ending the day in the winners' enclosure.

EMBESTO is a lightly-raced 3yr old who'll be aided by a weight allowance here. He has two wins and a runner-up finish from his three career starts to date, but that 2nd of 6 in a Listed event at HQ last month is the pick of his runs after 2 wins (1 x maiden, 1 x novice) at Class 5. There could/should be more to come but he's a bit of an unknown quantity.

Feature of the day is Instant Expert...

...and it suggests that Regal Reality and Chichester might not like the underfoot conditions. it's true that the former does prefer it a little quicker, but he has won on good to soft and soft ground, so there's no real reason why he wouldn't 'get' good ground, whilst Chichester also likes it quicker and is better on the A/W. Dancing Magic's poor record stands out like a sore thumb on these win stats, whilst the place date says...

...that Pogo might well have a good chance of making the frame here, as he's well versed under today's conditions. Again Chichester and Dancing Magic look weak and this is probably a 4-way battle for the money.

I've got to admit that the following draw data...

...surprised me a little, as I wasn't expecting any advantage from the draw in a small field over a straight mile, but those drawn highest seem to have struggled to win as often as those closer to the rail, so that's another nail in the coffin of Dancing Magic/Chichester's chances, which is just further affirmation of how unlikely it'd be for them to win. If we then consider how those races have been won, they'd really need to favour front-runners if Pogo is going to gatecrash the three original horses I expected to be first home, so let's check the pace stats...

...which is good news indeed for Pogo. Hold-up horses haven't fared well at all from a win or place perspective which would be yet another reason not to back Chichester...

..and it's not ideal for Mighty Ulysses.

Summary

I started by saying that the winner and placer(s) would come from Regal Reality, Mighty Ulysses and Embesto whilst Dancing Magic looks out of his depth, despite a 6lbs weight allowance and whilst I think this might still be the case, I've also shown enough reasons to ditch Chichester but to promote Pogo to the rank of 'possibles'.

Mighty Ulysses now looks marginally weaker than Regal Reality and Embesto, so I fear that he's the one of the trio most at risk, especially if he's held up and Pogo pours it on early. Pogo's best chance of winning/making the frame is to try and get out sharpish, but I think Regal Reality might just go with him and at 4/1, the old boy would be my tentative/marginal pick here.

It's going to be competitive, despite the small field and any one of the four could win/make the frame, so I won't be putting too much money down. Only Dancing Magic is at backable E/W odds, but even 25/1 couldn't tempt me!

Racing Insights, Thursday 10/08/23

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Thursday's free feature, the Instant Expert racecard tab is one of Geegeez readers' most popular tools because it has the unique ability to condense the entire form profile of every runner in the race into a single, easily digestible, view covering the form in terms of wins (or places), runs, and win (or place) percentage for each of going, class, course, distance, and field size.

It also compares today’s official rating with the horse’s last winning official rating. The display is colour coded: green for a higher percentage rate, amber for a middling percentage, and red for a low percentage. Horses with no form under a certain condition have grey figures.

IMPORTANT NOTE: Where a horse has no UK/Irish form – i.e. it is having its first run in Britain or Ireland under Rules – it will not show up on Instant Expert at all.

We make this feature freely available to ALL readers EVERY Thursday for ALL races, including, naturally, our selection of 'free' races as follows...

  • 2.50 Yarmouth
  • 4.00 Brighton
  • 4.45 Nottingham
  • 6.15 Sandown
  • 7.00 Chepstow
  • 8.05 Sligo

...the best of which (on paper) would appear to be race 11 of the Racing League aka the 7.00 Chepstow, an 8-runner, Class 3, 3yo flat handicap over a left-handed 1m2f on soft ground...

Gordon Grey is a four-race maiden, but came close to getting off the mark on his handicap debut (2nd crack today) last time out and Feel The Need has failed to win any of his last eight starts after scoring on just his second outing. The other six runners here have at least one win from their last five efforts with Totnes, Miss Dolly Rocker (hcp debut here) and bottom weight I Still Have Faith all winning last time out; the latter actually comes here on a hat-trick whilst Totnes is 3 from 7.

She's Hot is the only runner to have raced at Class 3 last time around, as Shahbaz, Totnes, Feel The Need and Old Smoke are all up from Class 4, whilst Gordon Greym Miss Dolly Rocker And I Still Have Faith are up two classes.

It's a handicap debut for Miss Dolly Rocker and a 2nd handicap run for Gordon Grey, of course, whilst Feel The Need wears a hood for the first time. None of these have been away from the track for much more than a month, so we should have no rustiness, She's Hot is turned back out the quickest, but even she will have had nine days rest.

None of the field have won (or even ran) here at Chepstow before, but Totnes, Miss Dolly Rocker and I Still Have Faith have all won over today's trip, even if Totnes did it on the A/W.

Sadly, our free feature, Instant Expert, doesn't have much relevant data, but this is what we do have under expected conditions...

None of the field have won at this grade before, so the rise in class most face might not be too relevant here and I think we might get a better picture if we look at their records in a lower grade...

...where Totnes looks strong albeit on A/W form. Shahbaz hasn't won any of his last four, but remains 5lbs above his last winning mark, although he was a runner-up only beaten by a neck off this mark in his last race. Mind you, he won't have Frankie Dettori driving him home today, which makes life tougher. Gordon Grey, however, is eased 3lbs despite only going down late by three quarters of a length a fortnight ago, which might give him a chance here. He's drawn relatively low in stall 3, but it would appear that stall 5 and higher is the place to be...

...with those races above tending to be a bit of a struggle for hold-up horses...

...and that doesn't bode well for a few of this field, especially Feel The Need and I Still Have Faith, if their past four outings are anything to go by...

...making our pace/draw heat map looks like this...

Summary

On form, it was Totnes, Miss Dolly Rocker, and I Still Have Faith who appeared to be the pick of the pack, Totnes, I Still Have Faith and possibly She's Hot were the takeaways from Instant Expert. I Still Have Faith, Miss Dolly Rocker, Shahbaz and She's Hot seem best favoured by the draw, whilst the pace/draw heat map looked like better news for Miss Dolly Rocker, Shahbaz and She's Hot.

As is often the case with the totting-up procedure, you get the same names mentioned over and over and five horses are listed above, so I'm going to rule Feel The Need, Gordon Grey and Old Smoke out of the running. The issue now is that any of the five remaining could go on and win, but there's no stand-out candidate.

The 4pm market had my five as follows...

...and the most obvious bet for me would be to back She's Hot on an Each Way basis. She's back up in trip (was a runner-up the last time she tackled 1m2f) and she's not stepping up in class.

Shahbaz looks short at 3/1 with only 1 win in 10, but a 60% place strike rate, he's more of a placer than a winner for me. Totnes is 3 from 4 on the A/W, but his Flat form reads 8433 (placed just once).

I Still Have Faith could be the one to back as the winner, he's in great form, gets weight all round, has a good jockey on board, is drawn higher enough, but might need to press on sooner, whilst Miss Dolly Rocker might also surprise one or two here. She has been more consistent than spectacular, but won last time out on soft ground, gets the trip and is drawn in stall 6. She might get an easy lead and if that happens, she's not a bad option for the places, if I could get better than 13/2.

Shortly after publishing the post, 9/1 became available about Miss Dolly Rocker, so a small E/W bet is an option.

Racing Insights, Thursday 03/08/23

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Thursday's free feature, the Instant Expert racecard tab is one of Geegeez readers' most popular tools because it has the unique ability to condense the entire form profile of every runner in the race into a single, easily digestible, view covering the form in terms of wins (or places), runs, and win (or place) percentage for each of going, class, course, distance, and field size.

It also compares today’s official rating with the horse’s last winning official rating. The display is colour coded: green for a higher percentage rate, amber for a middling percentage, and red for a low percentage. Horses with no form under a certain condition have grey figures.

IMPORTANT NOTE: Where a horse has no UK/Irish form – i.e. it is having its first run in Britain or Ireland under Rules – it will not show up on Instant Expert at all.

We make this feature freely available to ALL readers EVERY Thursday for ALL races, including, naturally, our selection of 'free' races as follows...

  • 2.45 Galway
  • 5.05 Galway
  • 6.10 Galway
  • 6.40 Newcastle
  • 8.15 Newcastle

As most of you, I don't really do Irish racing and those two Newcastle races aren't great, but as I was flicking through the cards with the daily feature, Instant Expert, in mind, I spotted this...

Now, I don't know what kind of quality we're dealing with here, but it looks competitive with plenty of runners having fared well under expected conditions, so I'm going to be looking at the 5.25 Stratford, a 7-runner, Class 3, 4yo+ handicap hurdle over a left-handed 3m2½f on good/good to soft ground...

Only Mr Yeats has failed to win any of his last three outings, but he has made the frame in all three. Scarpia won last time out and Gentleman Valley has won each of his last three. In fact I backed him via this column last time out!

He's up 6lbs now to a career-high mark of 123, but he hasn't stepped up in class, unlike the bottom three on the card, Hoganville, Mr Yeats and Hunting Percival, who all step up from Class 4 despite not winning last time out. The latter of that trio is a bit hit and miss wit a win and two runner-up finishes from his last six runs, but was pulled up in the other three, so he's clearly unreliable.

He has, however, won here at Stratford in the past (in a 2m7f hurdle), whilst Isthebaropen (great question!) won a 2m6½f hurdle here too. Hoganville and Mr Yeats have both won at a similar trip to this one, whilst top weight Shantou Express is the only previous course and distance winner, achieved two starts ago and he has also scored here over 3m3f, so track/trip shouldn't pose any issues.

Isthebaropen could be excused for needing a run after a break of over nine months since being pulled up at Aintree and it's ten months since he last completed a race and I'd be reluctant to back him until I'd seen him have a run. The others have all raced in the last seven weeks with Hunting Percival sighted as recently as Monday when pulled up over fences at Newton Abbot. he did, however, win her over 2m7f on his last effort over hurdles a month ago and this is reflected in that Instant Expert graphic I opened with, that I've reproduced below...

The entire filed are 3-6lbs higher than their last winning marks, so none gain any real advantage there and the above data doesn't really cause me any grounds for concern, although Mr Yeats and Scarpia do look a little weaker than the others on that evidence, but there's not a great deal in it. A trip in excess of three and a quarter miles on ground softer than good might take some getting though and there does appear to be a wide range of tactics employed by this field in recent outings...

If the above is anything to go by, then it could well be an early tussle for the lead between Shantou Express, Scarpia and Hoganville, whilst the returning Isthebaropen looks content to bide his time. The issue there, of course, is that he becomes too far off the pace and is too rusty after his lay-off to make up the ground on a track that hasn't been kind to hold-up types...

At this point, I think that's enough negatives about Isthebaropen and he now joins Hunting Percival in the discard list, leaving five in with a shout.

Summary

Realistically, any of the five I've got left in could go on and win this, but the way that Gentleman Valley won so easily at Worcester last time out makes me think he's still in front of the handicapper. He might well open up too short for me to back, but if I could get 5/2, I'd be pretty happy in such a competitive race. As for who completes the forecast, you really could make a case for any of the other four runners , so I'm going to refer back to our feature of the day, Instant Expert, to look at the place stats...

...and tentatively suggest Mr Yeats marginally ahead of Scarpia, who might well relish the step up in trip. Both Bet365 and SkyBet will pay three places when they open up, so fingers crossed that one of this latter pair are long enough for a small E/W bet.

PS Gentleman Valley was readily available at 5/2 just after 4pm when i took 8/1 E/W about Mr Yeats with bet365.

Racing Insights, Thursday 27/07/23

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Did you know that the Instant Expert tab is by far the most popular tab on the geegeez racecards?

That's because it has the ability to condense the entire form profile of every runner in the race into a single, easily digestible, view. The report covers the form in terms of wins (or places), runs, and win (or place) percentage for each of going, class, course, distance, and field size. It also compares today’s official rating with the horse’s last winning official rating. The display is colour coded: green for a higher percentage rate, amber for a middling percentage, and red for a low percentage. Horses with no form under a certain condition have grey figures.

IMPORTANT NOTE: Where a horse has no UK/Irish form – i.e. it is having its first run in Britain or Ireland under Rules – it will not show up on Instant Expert at all.

This GOLD feature is so important that we make freely available to ALL readers EVERY Thursday alongside our usual selection of FREE races which, for this Thursday are...

  • 2.20 Worcester
  • 2.30 Doncaster
  • 3.15 Sandown
  • 6.52 Leopardstown
  • 8.30 Yarmouth
  • 8.45 Newbury

The Sandown race is a Listed contest and is clearly the 'best' on the list, but 2yo fillies really aren't my thing, so let's check out the UK's most valuable race of the day, the final contest in the evening's Racing League fixture and the penultimate of our free races, the 8.30 Yarmouth, which is a 13-runner, Class 2, 3yo+ flat handicap over a left-handed 1m2f on good to soft ground...

This looks a tricky/competitive contest and I'm sure you'll be able to make a case for quite a few of these. The upside of this is that there shouldn't be any short prices and we might find a nice E/W bet for ourselves, especially with the bookies paying four places...

Andaleep won last time out, Elzaam Blue comes here on a hat-trick and Eagles Way has won his last four! Like A Tiger has won two of his last three, as has Cumulonimbus who has four wins and two places from his last seven outings.

These five are the 'form horses' here, but Certain Lad, Dark Pine, Baryshnikov, Ace Rothstein and Aqwaam all come here on fairly lengthy losing streaks, having lost their last 8, 12, 11, 11 and 7 races respectively. In fact, their recent form in comparison with the other five I named is so bad that I'm just going to omit them from my considerations immediately, leaving my card looking like this...

This makes the field much more manageable with just eight runners to consider, as I look at class movements. Five of the eight are stepping up in class here with Eagle's Way and Regal Empire up one class, Andaleep and Bringbackmemories are both up two levels and it's a triple step up for hat-trick seeking Elzaam Blue, which might make life tough.

Cumulonimbus and Old Port both raced at Class 2 last time out with the former having won and placed in his last two Class 2 starts, whilst Like A Tiger actually drops down from Listed class to run in just his second handicap contest, having won on handicap debut two starts ago. That win was over today's trip and of my eight under consideration, only Old Port, Regal Empire and Elzaam Blue have yet to score at this distance. Only Cumulonimbus has won here at Yarmouth, making all to score over course and distance on good to soft ground back in September 2022 at the start of his seven-race run of form I mentioned earlier.

Eagle's Way now carries top weight of those I'm still considering and his chances of a fifth win on the bounce might be affected by the fact that he hasn't raced for just over ten months, although he did win at Brighton on his seasonal reappearance at last July after an eight month absence, so he might well be one of those who goes well fresh. His rivals, however, have all raced in the last four weeks apart from Like A Tiger who has had twelve weeks' rest. Based on the above and on recent form, Old Port looks the weakest of the octet, so I'm bidding him goodbye before we even look at feature of the day, Instant Expert...

Eagle's Way is 2 from 2 on good ground and 2 from 2 on good to firm, but hasn't raced on good to soft and was only 8th of 15 when beaten by 9 lengths over 7f on soft ground when making his debut in October 2021. He makes a Class 2 debut after 2 wins at Class 3 and 2 at Class 5, but will certainly get the trip. Cumulonimbus has a line of green albeit off a small number of relevant races, but Andaleep is proven at this trip. Bringbackmemories looks the weakest on those win stats, particularly with 7 defeats from 8 at this trip. Perhaps, his place stats will make him look better...

And, in fairness, they do. Those numbers suggest he could still be in contention to make the frame, but I've already decided that I won't be backing him to win this one. He's drawn widest of the seven and is second widest of the entire field and although we don't have a stack of data (which is why I've tweaked the parameters a touch) about similar past contests, I'd say out wide is not the place to be here...

...from either a win or a place perspective and the PRB3 figures suggest those drawn 3 to 10 would have the best chances here...

...which keeps the other six runners in with a shout. Those 30+ races I used for the draw stats have, like many a Yarmouth race, tended to be won by those setting or closely tracking the pace...

...which, on the evidence of the runners' last four outings, would appear to suit Cumulonimbus, Eagle's Way and Elzaam Blue more than the others...

...and the pace/draw heat map looks like this...

Summary

I've used a process of elimination up to the draw stats, which I think eliminate Bringbackmemories from my enquiries, a decision backed up by his pace stats and the subsequent heat map. The heat map also suggests that Like A Tiger might struggle here, but if Elzaam Blue races like he did two, three and four starts ago, he could still be in with a shout.

Of those above, i think Regal Empire is the weakest and he was beaten in a lower grade last time out, so i wouldn't be backing him here. I also won't back Bringbackmemories or Like A Tiger to win this, although the latter clearly has ability and was the 9/2 favourite at 4.45pm on Wednesday. I suspect he'll be there or thereabouts despite my misgivings, but he's too short for to consider a win or an E/W bet.

This leaves me with Andaleep, Eagle's Way, Cumulonimbus and Elzaam Blue and with the bookies paying four places, they'd be the four I'd want to consider from at least an E/W perspective. Cumulonimbus has ticked most boxes all the way through the process and for me, he's the one to beat and can be backed at 13/2, which is quite reasonable.

Of the other three E/W possibles, Eagle's Way and Andaleep are both priced at or above my nominal 8/1 preferred price, so a pair of small E/W bets might be the answer there, but Elzaam Blue would be too short for those purposes at 6/1.

Racing Insight, Thursday 20/07/23

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Did you know that the Instant Expert tab is by far the most popular tab on the geegeez racecards?

That's because it has the ability to condense the entire form profile of every runner in the race into a single, easily digestible, view. The report covers the form in terms of wins (or places), runs, and win (or place) percentage for each of going, class, course, distance, and field size. It also compares today’s official rating with the horse’s last winning official rating. The display is colour coded: green for a higher percentage rate, amber for a middling percentage, and red for a low percentage. Horses with no form under a certain condition have grey figures.

IMPORTANT NOTE: Where a horse has no UK/Irish form – i.e. it is having its first run in Britain or Ireland under Rules – it will not show up on Instant Expert at all.

This GOLD feature is so important that we make freely available to ALL readers EVERY Thursday alongside our usual selection of FREE races which, for this Thursday are...

  • 3.35 Chepstow
  • 4.55 Hamilton
  • 5.15 Leopardstown
  • 6.35 Killarney
  • 7.00 Epsom
  • 8.40 Epsom

And whilst it's not the best race of the day or even the best of the free list, I think the 4.55 Hamilton race offers us the most in terms of Instant Expert from that list of races. It's an 8-runner, Class 6, 4yo+ flat handicap over a right-handed 1m3f on good to soft ground. The ground is softer in places and thunderstorms are expected, so it might well be heading towards soft by the off..

It's not a good race, but it will have a winner, so whilst I'd never advise spending too long on a race like this, it doesn't mean we shouldn't look at all. Unsurprisingly, none of these won last time out, but both Can Can Girl and Spanish Hustle made the frame and the latter did win his penultimate race. Lochnaver also won two starts ago and Blazer Two's win three races back is the only other win on display in the recent form lines of the entire field.

The class move information is a little misleading today, as The Navigator's run LTO at Class 2 was over hurdles, but he is still two classes lower than his last Flat run in April. Hezmie is, however, down three classes from finishing last of eight at Pontefract nine days after finishing last of eight at Doncaster at Class 5, whilst Lochnaver drops back a class after defeat at Hamilton and having finished second and then first in her last two at this level, she'll feel more at home in this company.

Blazer Two makes a yard debut here after joining Lucinda Russell's small but relatively successful string of Flat runners (96% of her runners over the last ten years have been in National Hunt contests, but she's 13 from 69 on the Flat since the start of last season including 12 from 51 at Class 5/6).

The Navigator has won over this trip at Carlisle and Ghostly has won here over 1m4f, whilst Spanish Hustle and Lochnaver are both former course and distance winners. There should be any rustiness to shake off here, as The Navigator is the longest rested and he was seen in action less than eight weeks ago; Can Can Girl and Hezmie have already had a run this month.

Feature of the day, Instant Expert, adds some more meat to the bones with news of three good to soft winners and a couple of soft ground victors, whilst all bar Hezmie have at least one Class 6 victory to their names. She hasn't actually raced this low, but has won at Class 5, albeit on the A/W, whilst The Navigator and Can Can Girl have both won on turf at Class 5. Smart Lass actually won at Class 4 in February 2022, which would be great had she not failed to win any of 13 races since!

That run of defeats is why Smart Lass is now rated 7lbs below her last win, so she could be dangerously weighted here considering her liking for soft ground. Spanish Hustle's best form has come on good to firm ground, so he might struggle here again, whilst Lochnaver's trio of wins at this venue is interesting. The place data doesn't really help many of these on the going front...

...and The Navigator is probably the pick of the bunch in a race where I don't expect the draw to have too much effect, based on previous contests...

...but if we can identify ourselves a front-runner, that might help, because those races above have unfolded like this...

We log how all horses run in the UK to enable us to make a reasoned estimate as to how they might run again and here's how they've gone in their last four outings...

...suggesting the early pace will come from the three at the top of that list. Of that trio, I'm not too keen on Ghostly right now, even at 6lbs below his last winning mark. He has been out of sorts for some while and didn't run well here last month, but I do like Lochnaver and Blazer Two from the front.

Summary

Lochnaver and Blazer Two head the pace chart and both are interesting here. Lochnaver has been in good form of late and loves it here at Hamilton, whilst Blazer Two has moved to Lucinda Russell's  yard recently. She does really well with her small string of low-grade flat runners and I'm intrigued at how quickly she's sending this one back out. he's only a pound higher than his last win and has never been ridden by a jockey as good as Joe Fanning before. Joe, of course, is a master at assessing pace.

To this pair, I'm adding the hold-up type, The Navigator. He's down in class, scored well on Instant Expert and hold-up horses have done pretty well here under similar conditions and I think he could be involved late on in this one.

And that's my three from eight. To be honest, they're all much of a muchness and the early market would appear to agree...

I don't really have an overwhelming urge to stick my neck out for any of them, but if pushed, Blazer Two might be the one. No E/W interest from me in this contest, though, so watch Smart Lass now go and put a shift in!

 

 

Racing Insights, Thursday 13/07/23

/in /by

Thursday's free feature, the Instant Expert racecard tab is one of Geegeez readers' most popular tools because it has the unique ability to condense the entire form profile of every runner in the race into a single, easily digestible, view covering the form in terms of wins (or places), runs, and win (or place) percentage for each of going, class, course, distance, and field size.

It also compares today’s official rating with the horse’s last winning official rating. The display is colour coded: green for a higher percentage rate, amber for a middling percentage, and red for a low percentage. Horses with no form under a certain condition have grey figures.

IMPORTANT NOTE: Where a horse has no UK/Irish form – i.e. it is having its first run in Britain or Ireland under Rules – it will not show up on Instant Expert at all.

We make this feature freely available to ALL readers EVERY Thursday for ALL races, including, naturally, our selection of 'free' races as follows...

  • 3.35 Newmarket
  • 3.45 Doncaster
  • 4.00 Carlisle
  • 5.20 Newmarket
  • 7.00 Epsom
  • 7.50 Newbury

...from which the best on paper is arguably the first on the list, but only four are set to contest the Group 2 Princess of Wales Stakes, so I'll take a look at the last on that same card, the 5.20 Newmarket, a 10-runner, Class 3, 3yo+ flat handicap over a straight mile on good to firm ground...

This has the feel of a pretty open contest and I can already make a case for four or five of them, but only Glenfinnan was a winner last time out and Greatgadian, Darkness and Soar Above have no wins in their last six (12, 15 and 9 actually!) outings.

I'm going to be fairly ruthless at this point and discard all three as they are 1 from 15, 0 from 15 and 1 from 13 on the Flat and I just know that I couldn't be tempted to back them.

Of my remaining seven runners, all are moving in class to run a Class 3 today. Titian, Good Karma and Bodorgan all drop in from Class 2, whilst Sirona's last three (of a 4-race career!) have all been in Listed company. The other three runners (United Front, Glenfinnan and Bling On The Music) were all in Class 4 action when last seen, which in Glenfinnan's case was ten months ago and that might be an issue. Titian has been off for ten weeks, but the remainder have all raced in the last two to seven weeks.

Glenfinnan is hooded for the first time and actually makes a handicap debut here, as does Sirona and it's Good Karma's second attempt in handicap company. We have four three year olds in the field (Sirona, the sole filly in the race, Good Karma, Glenfinnan & Bodorgan) and they will receive a very handy 9lb weight allowance for their age, which should make them very competitive, even if they lack a little experience.

Instant Expert says that only two of the remaining seven runners have won on good to form ground and that only one has won a Class 3 flat race, mind you only three have tried! Bodorgan is our sole course winner, whilst only Glenfinnan has scored over a mile on turf...

Bling On The Music may have own on good to firm, but a 1 in 7 record isn't great, nor is his 0 from 5 at the trip, although United front has gone one race more on that score. The absence of green above suggests we might (or might not!) learn more from the place stats. There's only one way to find out!

Sirona is pretty much untested in these conditions, but both Titian and United Front have gone well at this grade previously. The latter has also shown a liking for good to firm ground. Don't get me wrong a win and two places from five efforts isn't much to crow about, but his Flat record on other going is just 0 wins and 2 places from 11 starts, so good to firm might well be his thing and both he and Titian seem to 'get' the trip.

Those two are drawn pretty wide with only Glenfinnan and top weight Greatgadian outside of them, but I doubt that the draw is going to make or break a runners' chances here over a straight mile and that's how it has been in the past here...

...whereas the pace profile of those races tells a different story and the emphasis has been on taking or getting close to the lead...

...which isn't great news for Bling On The Music or Good Karma, based on their last two or three efforts...

...so much so that I'm ready to discard that pair too, giving me just five to focus on.

Summary

3pm : I like Glenfinnan and the way he won his maiden last September, but he's up in class and hasn't raced since. That said, he is likely to make the running here and if allowed a soft lead, he could well run away with this one, as he did at Yarmouth. He's hardly thrown in off a mark of 91 and I'd be wary of backing him at that weight, but I suspect the 9lb allowance will be the key here and I'd say he's the one to beat.

I don't know enough about Sirona, other than that she lacks relevant experience under these conditions and has been well beaten in her last three outings. Both Titian and United Front scored well on the place side of Instant Expert and both look well set to play a major part here again, if only because the rest of the field might not be good enough, whilst Bodorgan receives weight all round and wasn't beaten by far in two recent runs at a higher grade.

I won't get involved with Sirona, until I know a bit more about her, but any of Titian, United Front and/or Bodorgan could chase Glenfinnan home and make the frame.

5.30pm odds check : The market goes 9/2 Glenfinnan & Bodorgan, 7/1 Titian and 20/1 United Front! So, I'd back Glenfinnan and take an E/W punt on both Titian and United Front. Skybet are paying four places here and still offer 14's about United Front and that might well be a nice bet.

Racing Insights, Thursday 06/07/23

/in /by

Thursday's free feature, the Instant Expert racecard tab is one of Geegeez readers' most popular tools because it has the unique ability to condense the entire form profile of every runner in the race into a single, easily digestible, view covering the form in terms of wins (or places), runs, and win (or place) percentage for each of going, class, course, distance, and field size.

It also compares today’s official rating with the horse’s last winning official rating. The display is colour coded: green for a higher percentage rate, amber for a middling percentage, and red for a low percentage. Horses with no form under a certain condition have grey figures.

IMPORTANT NOTE: Where a horse has no UK/Irish form – i.e. it is having its first run in Britain or Ireland under Rules – it will not show up on Instant Expert at all.

We make this feature freely available to ALL readers EVERY Thursday for ALL races, including, naturally, our selection of 'free' races as follows...

  • 2.30 Yarmouth
  • 3.30 Yarmouth
  • 4.25 Bellewstown
  • 4.45 Haydock
  • 7.35 Kempton
  • 7.40 Bellewstown

...and of the four UK races, the one with the most Instant Expert data to work with is the 7.35 Kempton, a 13-runner, Class 4, 4yo+ A/W handicap over a right-dmile on standard to slow polytrack...

None of these won last time out, but Kingori has two wins and a place from his three starts so far. Rhythm N Rock, Tiempo Star and Ashky have all won two of their last seven, but four of the field (Naval Commander, Fantasy Believer, Billy Mill & Two Tempting) have lost at least seven on the bounce (7, 8, 8 & 11 respectively!)

Naval Commander does at least drop two classes here, as does Ashky, whilst Smiling Sunflower is down one with Kingori, Bruno's Gold and He's A Gentleman going the other direction.

This will be a UK debut, yard debut and handicap debut for Lion's Mane, as well as a return from a lengthy (233 days) absence, but Kingori (also on hcp debut) and the consistent Flyawaydream have been away longer (258 & 280 days). This is also a first run for Naval Commander with a tongue tie and Ashky in cheekpieces.

All bar Lion's Mane, Flyawaydream and Smiling Sunflower have won over today's trip, but the latter has at least won over 7f here at Kempton before, whist Naval Commander scored here over 1m3f. Four of the field (Rhythm N Rock, Fantasy Believer, Billy Mill & Two Tempting) are former course and distance winners.

I said that this race had the most Instant Expert data from the 'free' UK races, but that doesn't mean it's good news...

...but it might help to rule some out.

Fantasy Believer is probably best suited, as he's the only one with no red blocks for either going, class, course or distance, but I've concerns over Naval Commander and Billy Mill generally and the field's lack of Class 4 success, although a few of them do actually have decent place records at this grade...

Billy Mill looks a different animal on place stats and if I was being brutal, I'd probably be focusing my attention on these five, just on that place data...

That's not to say the the winner and placers (bookies will pay four places here) are definitely in that five (we'll soon see), but you'd have to say they look more likely based on the numbers, but we've a big field here and the bare data from the Draw Analyser suggests that Two Tempting and Billy Mill might have a job on their hands from out wide...

...and the stall by stall stats would appear to back this up...

The associated pace/draw heat map, however, seems to set more stall on the pace of the race rather than the draw...

...and that will be because the pace analyser says...

So, we really don't want a hold-up horse and ideally we get one who could lead from a high or even low draw. If we look at the field's last four runs from a pace perspective, sort them into draw order and attach them to the pace/draw heat map, we get something like this...

...with no standout runner. What I think might happen here is that the consistent Flyawaydream might try to nick this race from the front and attempt to make all. He's a natural front-runner, who has yet to finish outside the first three home in any of his six starts and has won under today's jockey, so I'll add him to the five who looked most likely to make the frame from Instant Expert.

Summary

I've left myself with six runners (Tiempo Star, Two Tempting, Billy Mill, Kingori, Fantasy Believer and Flyawaydream) for four places and whilst I think that Kingori and Fantasy Believer might well be the pick of the bunch, I'm not rushing out to back them at 4/1 and 13/2 respectively. I think both have an excellent chance of making the frame, but those odds aren't E/W odds for me.

The same would therefore apply to Tiempo Star and Flyawaydream at 9/2 and 6/1 respectively, leaving me with just Two Tempting at 15/2 and Billy Mill at 10's. And whilst these two are probably the weakest pair of the half-dozen under consideration, it only takes one or two of the principals to fail to fire and you've got yourself a nice E/W bet. It wouldn't be big stakes here, but a small interest bet would work.

Racing Insights, Thursday 29/06/23

/in /by

Thursday's free feature, the Instant Expert racecard tab is one of Geegeez readers' most popular tools because it has the unique ability to condense the entire form profile of every runner in the race into a single, easily digestible, view covering the form in terms of wins (or places), runs, and win (or place) percentage for each of going, class, course, distance, and field size.

It also compares today’s official rating with the horse’s last winning official rating. The display is colour coded: green for a higher percentage rate, amber for a middling percentage, and red for a low percentage. Horses with no form under a certain condition have grey figures.

IMPORTANT NOTE: Where a horse has no UK/Irish form – i.e. it is having its first run in Britain or Ireland under Rules – it will not show up on Instant Expert at all.

We make this feature freely available to ALL readers EVERY Thursday for ALL races, including, naturally, our selection of 'free' races as follows...

  • 2.00 Newmarket
  • 2.10 Newcastle
  • 4.20 Newmarket
  • 5.30 Newmarket

...from which, the 'best' looks like the 4.20 Newmarket, an 8-runner (fingers crossed for E/W bettors), Class 3, 3yo+ flat handicap over a straight 7f on good to firm ground...

None of these won last time out, but Urban Sprawl was an excellent 3rd of 29 off this mark in the Britannia at Royal Ascot last week and also won three starts ago, both at a higher grade than this. Elsewhere wins are sparse, but Final Watch won five races ago whilst Chola Empire & Dancinginthewoods both won six back.

Urban Sprawl's excellent showing at Ascot was at a class higher than today and he now drops down, as does Final Watch from a run here at HQ on the Rowley when last home of eight. The bottom two on the card, G'daay and Dancinginthewoods, both step up a class, despite failing to make the frame at Class 4 LTO.

The latter of those, Dancinginthewoods, has been off the track the longest at 112 days and Final Watch's last run was eight weeks ago, but the other half dozen have all raced in the last three weeks with Urban Sprawl rested for just a week, of course. He runs off the same mark here and as the sole three year old in this field, gets a very handy 9lb weight allowance if that Ascot display wasn't impressive enough!

All eight have already won over this trip with both Mitrosonfire and Final Watch having scored over course and distance, whilst Dancinginthewoods is a 6f winner over the July course, but according to Instant Expert, his turf record at Class 3 and 7f leave quite a bit to be desired...

...but he is 6lbs lower than his last win. Able Kane has also toiled in this grade and G'daay is yet to set the world alight on turf over 7f, but Mitrosonfire has some respectable numbers to support his case and he probably catches the eye most here, whilst the place stats suggest that Final Watch might go well off the same mark as his last win...

Only Chola Empire has failed to register so far, but having made the frame 7 times from 8 A/W starts over this trip (inc 2 wins), I wouldn't necessarily rule him out just yet, so I approach the draw stats with a full complement of eight runners to choose from and our Draw Analyser (and PRB3 stats in particular) say there's very little advantage from any stall...

That's not entirely surprising though, really. A straight track shouldn't really favour any part of the draw. Stall 1 often does better because they have the rail to keep them straight and I'm guessing that those drawn widest (8 of 8 and 9 of 9) don't do as well because they've nothing on the other side of them to stop them straying. They do, however, make the frame as often (if not slightly more) as expected. This lack of any real draw bias thus shifts the emphasis onto running styles/tactics etc aka pace and my guess would be that over a straight 7 on quick ground, you want to be up with the leaders if not actually leading and this theory is amply backed up by the data from our Pace Analyser...

...which heavily favours those racing prominently and/or leading. Leaders don't always hold on to see the winners' enclosure, but over 45% of them make the frame, whilst almost 42% of those prominent runners making the frame go on to win, a very healthy conversion rate.

So, we're not too invested in the draw, but we would like a runner that 'gets on with it' and if we look at the field's most recent outings...

...it's another tick for Urban Sprawl with Mitrosonfire and Able Kane the ones most likely to try and keep him company. Final Watch may well have good place stats on Instant Expert, but he's going to struggle from so far off the pace.

Summary

It has to be Urban Sprawl, doesn't it? A Class 2 winner at Goodwood at the end of May and third in a big field at Royal Ascot last week off this mark, he's in great nick. He has a 9lb weight allowance and is the likely leader here. If he runs anything like he did last week, he could well tear this up. Sadly he's already priced at 5/4 with Bet365 and I'm not usually playing with big enough stakes to make those odds worthwhile, but if you're not averse to shorties, there might still be some value in the price, as he might well go off at odds on.

Of the rest, I'd love Chola Empire to replicate his 7f A/W form onto grass, but a best price of 9/2 gives me nothing to work with for an unproven turf runner. Final Watch could have been an E/W possible, but again 13/2 is too short for a hold-up horse, but I quite like the chances of Mitrosonfire here. He scored well on Instant Expert and probably needed the run at Goodwood last time out, but was only 5.5 lengths off the winner despite being off for six months and at 9/1 here could be worth an E/W play, whilst Able Kane is also interesting at 10's with the tongue tie back on and down below his last winning mark. Statistically, he's well suited to make the frame based on the going, his mark, the field size, the number of days since his last run and it being a straight track.

Racing Insights, Thursday 15/06/23

/in /by

Thursday's free feature, the Instant Expert racecard tab is one of Geegeez readers' most popular tools because it has the unique ability to condense the entire form profile of every runner in the race into a single, easily digestible, view covering the form in terms of wins (or places), runs, and win (or place) percentage for each of going, class, course, distance, and field size.

It also compares today’s official rating with the horse’s last winning official rating. The display is colour coded: green for a higher percentage rate, amber for a middling percentage, and red for a low percentage. Horses with no form under a certain condition have grey figures.

IMPORTANT NOTE: Where a horse has no UK/Irish form – i.e. it is having its first run in Britain or Ireland under Rules – it will not show up on Instant Expert at all.

We make this feature freely available to ALL readers EVERY Thursday for ALL races, including, naturally, our selection of 'free' races as follows...

  • 2.20 Newbury
  • 2.50 Newbury
  • 4.30 Newbury
  • 5.10 Yarmouth
  • 5.50 Worcester
  • 7.40 Haydock

...from which, we'll look at the 4.30 Newbury, a 9-runner, Class 4, 4yo+ flat handicap over a straight 6f on good ground...

Only Shobiz won last time out and since making the frame without winning his first five races, has now won three from seven. Dakota Power, Treacherous, Sarah's Verse & Strike also have at least one win in their recent form-line.  Shobiz also benefits from a drop in class here, as do American Star, Capote's Dream and Treacherous, whilst Magnificence, Sarah's Verse and Strike are all up one class. Dakota Power actually drops two classes for his handicap debut some 558 days after his last outing when last home of three at Wolverhampton, making this also his turf debut!

Elsewhere Capote's Dream adds a first-time tongue to go with his cheekpieces, American Star wears blinkers for the second time and it's a third run in cheekpieces for Magnificence, who is the only one in the field yet to win at this type of trip. American Star has won here over 7f, whilst Shobiz won over course and distance last time out.

All bar the returning Dakota Power have raced in the last two months with Magnificence having ran as recently as last Friday, when a half length runner-up at Haydock. He goes off the same mark here, which according to Instant Expert is 3lbs higher than his last win and the weights show three runners well below their last winning marks...

I've left the above as Flat and A/W just to show turf debutant Dakota Power's decent A/W stats, but when we look at just Flat records...

...the ones of immediate interest would be American Star, Shobiz, Capote's Dream and Sarah's Verse in card order. Jack's Point hasn't fared well at this trip with 1 win from 9, but he is only 1 from 26 on the Flat overall, so he'd not be one to hang your hat on anyway. Elsewhere, there are no real alarms ringing and there's not much above to cause me to discard any others just yet.

In terms of draw stats, the bare data suggest those drawn lowest would have the upper hand...

...but there really should be too much of a draw bias over a straight 6f here and the PRB data suggests a more even spread of results...

There is a slight drop off for stall 10 in the 10-runner races, but otherwise, there's not a great deal of difference between 'best' and 'worst' stalls 2 and 9, which then suggests that as with many straight sixes on decent ground, it'll all be about pace but those races used above for the draw data aren't entirely conclusive, but you don't want to be backing a hold-up horse if you've ideas about winning here...

Leaders tend to hang on for a place, but only 29.2% of those making the frame go on to win and it's a similar return for prominent running placers, but almost 70% of those making the frame from mid-division go on to win, whilst again hold-up horses fare poorly. Based on how this field have approached their most recent outings...

...you'd have concerns about Treacherous, Capote's Dream and Sarah's Verse trying to make up ground in what might well be a falsely-run race. American Star and Dakota Power might be the ones to take it on, whilst it could well be Shobiz, Strike and Magnificence in that prized mid-division position.

Summary

From above, the positives... Shobiz won last time out; Dakota Power, Treacherous, Sarah's Verse & Strike all have a fairly recent win on their form lines. Shobiz drops in class here, as do American Star, Capote's Dream and Treacherous. American Star is a course winner over 7 and Shobiz has own over track and trip. Shobiz, Strike and Magnificence might get an advantage racing in mid-division.

The negatives... American Star, Capote's Dream, Jack's Point and Magnificence are without a recent win. Dakota Power hasn't raced on turf before and hasn't raced for a very longtime. Magnificence, Sarah's Verse and Strike are all up one class and the former is the only one without a win at this trip, whilst Jack's Point has a really poor Flat record. Treacherous, Capote's Dream and Sarah's Verse look like struggling from a hold-up position.

And from all that, Shobiz is the one whose positives far outweigh any possible negatives, which would explain why he's the early 5/4 favourite. I'm not really a fan of backing horses at that kind of price, but he really should be winning this quite cosily. Second favourite Magnificence ran well last week off today's mark, but is up in class and has been out of sorts for a long time.

Only three horses, aside from Shobiz emerge from the analysis slightly in credit after taking the negatives from the positives and they are American Star, Treacherous and Strike. If i'm honest, I don't see of them really challenging the winner, but all have a shout of making the frame, if things fall their way, of course.

Treacherous is too short to go E/W at 11/2, but American Star (12/1) & Strike (14/1) might be worth a small punt here.