Tag Archive for: Instant Expert

Racing Insights, Thursday 25/01/24

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Thursday's free feature, the Instant Expert racecard tab is one of Geegeez readers' most popular tools because it has the unique ability to condense the entire form profile of every runner in the race into a single, easily digestible, view covering the form in terms of wins (or places), runs, and win (or place) percentage for each of going, class, course, distance, and field size.

It also compares today’s official rating with the horse’s last winning official rating. The display is colour coded: green for a higher percentage rate, amber for a middling percentage, and red for a low percentage. Horses with no form under a certain condition have grey figures.

IMPORTANT NOTE: Where a horse has no UK/Irish form – i.e. it is having its first run in Britain or Ireland under Rules – it will not show up on Instant Expert at all.

We make this feature freely available to ALL readers EVERY Thursday for ALL races, including, naturally, our selection of 'free' races as follows...

  • 1.35 Southwell
  • 3.10 Huntingdon
  • 3.25 Gowran Park
  • 4.45 Newcastle

...the highest rated of which is the 3.10 Huntingdon, a 9-runner, Class 1, 5yo+ Mares' Listed Chase over a right-handed 2m4f on good ground...

All nine of these have won at least one of their last seven outings with top weight Pink legend winning four times, but she didn't win last time out. Mayhem Mya, Plenty of Time and Sacre Coeur did though, as did Brides Hill who comes here aiming to complete a hat-trick.

Eight of the field are carrying 11st 2lbs here with the 137-rated Lady Adare best off at the weights, but Pink Legend is rated 8lbs higher than Lady Adare, but carries just 4lbs more, whilst Brides Hill is rated a further 8lbs better than Pink Legend and carries 2lbs less, so she's effectively 10lbs to 34lbs well-in with her rivals here.

Sacre Coeur was a Class 2 winner last time out whilst Mayham Mya, Plenty of Time and Midnight Mary all raced at Class 3, so all four are up in class today. The latter is just one of two previous course winners (but only 3 have raced here in total!), having won a Class 5 3m1½f hurdle here back in March 2021, whilst the other, Pink Legend is a course and distance winner by virtue of winning this race in 2022. Carole's Pass and Mayhem Mya are the only ones yet to win over a similar trip to this one...

There's not a great deal of data in Instant Exert above, but Pink Legend is certainly the eyecatcher with her 5 Class 1 chase successes and whilst her rivals haven't quite been as successful, the place stats show that most of them  have acquitted themselves quite well in this grade...

...with La Renommee doing particularly well over this trip. The fields' most recent outings suggest that the likes of Midnight Mary, Pink Legend and Sacre Coeur will be the ones setting the tempo early doors...

...with hat-trick seeking Brides Hill being held-up, but past similar races here at Huntingdon haven't shown any real pace bias...

...as I'd like to see a bigger dataset for mid-division runners before ruling them out. In a race like this where I've no draw or pace bias to work with and Instant Expert hasn't really narrowed things down, I find that the cream generally rises to the top naturally.

Summary

If we're not getting much from Instant Expert from this race by means of whittling the field down, then we refer back to the card and form. And for me, the best two horses in the race are 2022's winner Pink Legend and Brides Hill. The latter comes here on a hat-trick and is a good 10lbs well in at the weights with the former, so I'm going to agree with the 4.40pm market and suggest that the 6/5 Brides Hill beats the 9/2 Pink Legend.

Sadly these bets don't excite me, so I'm looking for double-digit odds runners as possible E/W bets and my gaze falls on the 11/1 Sacre Coeur and the 12/1 La Renommee. The former has progressed nicely over fences, finishing 1131 in her four efforts last year and could well run on for a place, as indeed could the latter who was a Listed class runner-up last time out and has a great record over similar trips with 3 wins and 3 further places from just 7 attempts at 2m4f/2m4½f.

Racing Insights, Thursday 18/01/24

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Thursday's free feature, the Instant Expert racecard tab is one of Geegeez readers' most popular tools because it has the unique ability to condense the entire form profile of every runner in the race into a single, easily digestible, view covering the form in terms of wins (or places), runs, and win (or place) percentage for each of going, class, course, distance, and field size.

It also compares today’s official rating with the horse’s last winning official rating. The display is colour coded: green for a higher percentage rate, amber for a middling percentage, and red for a low percentage. Horses with no form under a certain condition have grey figures.

IMPORTANT NOTE: Where a horse has no UK/Irish form – i.e. it is having its first run in Britain or Ireland under Rules – it will not show up on Instant Expert at all.

We make this feature freely available to ALL readers EVERY Thursday for ALL races, including, naturally, our selection of 'free' races as follows...

  • 12.50 Wincanton
  • 1.20 Chelmsford
  • 1.35 Newcastle
  • 2.50 Fairyhouse

No jumps racing on Thursday and the sole remaining free race is a poor-looking Class 6 affair. In fact the whole Chelmsford card consists of 2 x Class 5 and 4 x Class 6. There's an evening meeting at Southwell, though, and this has 2 x Class 5 and 5 x Class 6 plus the race I'm going to look at : the 6.30 Southwell, an 11-runner, Class 3, 4yo+ A/W handicap over a left-handed 1m3f on standard tapeta...

The consistent (six top 3 finishes on the bounce) Qaasid was a runner-up last time out and bottom-weight Tiger Beetle was third on his last run, but we've no LTO winners and three of these (Barenboim, Howth & Furzig) have lost at least seven consecutive outings.

Top-weight Valsad makes his yard debut for Jamie Osborne and drops down a class to run here, as do Barenboim, Queen of Ipanema (1st time in cheekpieces), Cavern Club and Furzig. The fast-finishing bottom-weight Tiger Beetle steps up in class, though, as does Tenerife Sunshine, whilst Haveyoumissedme is noted as another fast finisher.

Valsad and Cavern Club have both been rested for just over three months and it's well over six months since Qaasid was turned out. The remainder have, however, all raced in the last month or so. If we go back to Qaasid, we see that he's our sole course and distance winner, but Valsad has also won at this track, landing a £52k, Class 2, 1m4f handicap three starts ago, He has also won over a similar trip to this one elsewhere, as have Barenboim, Cavern Club and Tenerife Sunshine.

Past relevant form is highlighted via Instant Expert, of course...

...and as seems to be the case right now, it's a pretty mixed bag. Queen of Ipanema has a great A/W strike rate, of course, but Qaasid and Sonnerie Power have both won just 1 in 7 on standard going. Barenboim has struggled to win at Class 3, whilst this trip hasn't managed to get Tiger Beetle or Howth to win any of 22 combined starts, whilst Qaasid is just 2 from 13.

We do know, however, that Qaasid is a bit better than the above stats might suggest, as he's a consistent/regular placer as shown by the place stats, where he suddenly looks like a force to be reckoned with...

...although his consistency is pushing him up the weights and he's now 8lbs higher than his last win and Cavern Club also finds himself in a similar predicament at 9lbs above his last win.

The tapeta track is relatively new here at Southwell and over similar distances with a similar field size, there doesn't to be much (if any) advantage to be gained from the draw...

...as leaders tend to win more often, but make the frame less often, whilst from a pace perspective it has paid to avoid front-runners...

...which might not be good news for Valsad if he forced to take up the running in the absence of a true front-runner...

...whilst the pace/draw heat map suggests high-drawn hold-up horses have done well, but not as well as the low-drawm prominent horse...

...and if we translate this data to our racecard...

...Queen of Ipanema is probably our high-drawn hold-up type and Qaasid our low-drawn prominent runner.

Summary

Queen of Ipanema has a great A/W strike rate and scoresd well on Instant Expert and on pace/draw and at 8/1 with Hills (5.45pm Wednesday), I think she's a good E/W prospect, especially with four places being available.

Qaasid is a regular placer who scored well on the place side of Instant Expert. He also fills the pace/draw role as low-drawn prominent and whilst he's not a regular winner, he's a reliable sort to make the frame and had he been a little longer than 13/2, I've have been tempted into another E/W bet.

As for a winner, you could make a case for a handful of these and none really stand out for me, so I'll leave that well alone, but leave you with the thought that the 9/1 Caver Club might be one for the frame too.

Racing Insights, Thursday 11/01/24

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Thursday's free feature, the Instant Expert racecard tab is one of Geegeez readers' most popular tools because it has the unique ability to condense the entire form profile of every runner in the race into a single, easily digestible, view covering the form in terms of wins (or places), runs, and win (or place) percentage for each of going, class, course, distance, and field size.

It also compares today’s official rating with the horse’s last winning official rating. The display is colour coded: green for a higher percentage rate, amber for a middling percentage, and red for a low percentage. Horses with no form under a certain condition have grey figures.

IMPORTANT NOTE: Where a horse has no UK/Irish form – i.e. it is having its first run in Britain or Ireland under Rules – it will not show up on Instant Expert at all.

We make this feature freely available to ALL readers EVERY Thursday for ALL races, including, naturally, our selection of 'free' races as follows...

  • 12.55 Southwell
  • 1.00 Clonmel
  • 2.20 Fontwell
  • 3.05 Catterick

Neither UK option above enthuses me too much, but we do have an interesting looking race to cover in the 2.30 Catterick, an 8-runner, 5yo+ handicap chase over 3m6f on soft ground...

Bushypark won this race on heavy ground by 3.5 lengths last year and comes into having won last time out, as do Court At Slip and Crixus's Escape. Court At Slip has won three of his last six and Bushypark is two from six, whilst Ladronne and Glittering Love are both winless in ten starts and Shadows In The Sky is a six-race maiden.

Bushypark and Ladronne both raced at Class 3 last time out, but the other six all step up at least one class with the bottom two on the card, Crixus's Escape and Shadows In The Sky both making a double step up. Bushypark and Shadows In The Sky are the only two runners without any headgear or tongue ties and half of this field are already 10yrs old or more.

The entire field has raced in the last two to four weeks, so all should be race-ready. Bushypark's success in this race last year not only makes the sole course and distance winner, but also the only one to have won at this trip. Elsewhere, only Ladronne has won on this track and that was a 3m1f chase way back in mid-November 2022 and was the last time he won a race (he's now a pound lighter that run).

More race-relevant stats can be found via feature of the day, Instant Expert...

...where last year's winner Bushypark is the early eye-catcher. No Cruise Yet and Glittering Love have decent soft ground records and the former has also won a couple of stayers' chases, whilst the latter's 0 from 9 at Class 3 is a bit of a concern. Court At Slip is largely untested under these conditions, but did win over 3m3½f on soft ground last March.

From a place perspective...

Bushypark again catches the eye off a fairly small sample size, but I'm drawn to No Cruise Yet on that data, because of the larger number of runs. The issue there seems to be a record of just one placed finish from four at Class 3, which would be a concern to be if I didn't that he'd had three races at Class 2 and finished 132 in those three, so he shouldn't be outclassed here.

This pair are highly likely to be up with the pace, especially Bushypark, who doesn't seem to run any other way if his last four runs are anything to go by...

...and the report of last year's race said..."jumped well throughout, made all, ridden and ran on"...

He is however, some 5lbs higher than his last/highest winning mark and he concede chunks of weight all round, but our pace analyser suggests his front-running style is the way to go here.

Summary

There's a lot to like about Bushypark's chances of winning this race for a second time on the bounce, but I fear that fellow pace-maker No Cruise Yet might well stalk and ultimately outstay him.

If these two do battle and take too much out of each other, that could open the door for the third horse on the pace chart, Court At Slip to get involved too.

This could well be a fairly tight contest as 3m6f soft ground chases go, but these are the three I'd want to focus on and if pushed to put one slightly ahed of the others, I think I'd side with No Cruise Yet.

All three are sadly sub-6/1 in the 5.30pm market, so I've no E/W selection today.

Racing Insights, Thursday 04/01/23

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Thursday's free feature, the Instant Expert racecard tab is one of Geegeez readers' most popular tools because it has the unique ability to condense the entire form profile of every runner in the race into a single, easily digestible, view covering the form in terms of wins (or places), runs, and win (or place) percentage for each of going, class, course, distance, and field size.

It also compares today’s official rating with the horse’s last winning official rating. The display is colour coded: green for a higher percentage rate, amber for a middling percentage, and red for a low percentage. Horses with no form under a certain condition have grey figures.

IMPORTANT NOTE: Where a horse has no UK/Irish form – i.e. it is having its first run in Britain or Ireland under Rules – it will not show up on Instant Expert at all.

We make this feature freely available to ALL readers EVERY Thursday for ALL races, including, naturally, our selection of 'free' races as follows...

  • 11.45 Lingfield
  • 12.58 Hereford
  • 2.28 Hereford
  • 6.10 Newcastle

It's a shockingly bad day of racing on Thursday and I'm struggling to be enthused about it if truth be told, but the show must go on! The highest-rated races are flour Class 4 affairs, three of which are maidens, so we'll tackle the one that isn't! That's the 2.58 Hereford, a 9-runner, 5yo+ handicap chase over a right handed 3m1½f on soft ground that might be a little better in places...

Not much in the way of recent winning form from this group, but the 11yr old veteran Len Brennan won five races ago, Langley Hundred won seven races ago and Honey I'm Good won six and seven races back, plus this sole mare in the race has won three of her four starts over fences.

Hardy Boy is winless in eight, but has been been a runner-up beaten by just a neck in each of his last two, whilst Invincible Nao, Inflexible and Len Brennan all finished third last time out, although the latter hasn't raced for 15 months since that last run and closer inspection shows he was third of just three, beaten by 27 lengths and he was last of five in his penultimate race, beaten by 55 lengths.

Those last two efforts, the lay-of and his age are more than enough to put me off Len Brennan, even if he is making a yard debut for Anthony Charlton and is one of just two winners over a similar trip to this one. Honey I'm Good is the other previous distance winner and she steps up a class here, as do the bottom three in the weights, Shot Boii, Paseo and Royal Act.

We know that Len Brennan has been off the track since early October 2022 and has only raced twice in the last 21 months, but all of his rivals have had an outing in the last five weeks with Paseo turned back out just five days after a 43 length defeat at Taunton, when only 6th of 9. I'm not sure a step up in class is the right move here less than a week later.

Feature of the day is, of course, Instant Expert and it shows how the field have performed in previous races under similar conditions...

...and that's a pretty bleak picture with the exception, of course, of the mare Honey I'm Good. I think we're going to need some place data to help us out here!

That's a little more useful with Hardy Boy, Langley Hundred and Inflexible at least adding some green to the reds! Royal Act looks out of his depth and I think he now joins Len Brennan and Paseo on the sidelines, leaving me with six to consider for a race that appears to reward front-runners and those who race fairly prominently...

Unfortunately, we don't have many who like to set the pace here, aside from Royal Act, if recent efforts are anything to go by...

...although Honey I'm Good and Shot Boii both have two 3+ scores in their last four outings and Hardy Boy was an unlucky pacemaker last time out.

Summary

None of these really make a forceful case to be backed as a winner, but Hardy Boy is the most consistent of them all and having been beaten by just a neck in each of his last two starts, he's certainly knocking on the door and would be my tentative pick at 9/2 (Hills & Bet365 @ 4.40pm).

Elsewhere, I'd probably look for some E/W value and if Honey I'm Good (the Instant Expert eyecatcher) puts her modest hurdles form behind her now she's back over fences (3 wins from 4 in this sphere), she could be dangerous at 9/1, whilst Shot Boii would also be of interest at 7's, but I'd probably want/need him to drift a little to become an E/W bet.

Racing Insights, Thursday 28/12/23

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Thursday's free feature, the Instant Expert racecard tab is one of Geegeez readers' most popular tools because it has the unique ability to condense the entire form profile of every runner in the race into a single, easily digestible, view covering the form in terms of wins (or places), runs, and win (or place) percentage for each of going, class, course, distance, and field size.

It also compares today’s official rating with the horse’s last winning official rating. The display is colour coded: green for a higher percentage rate, amber for a middling percentage, and red for a low percentage. Horses with no form under a certain condition have grey figures.

IMPORTANT NOTE: Where a horse has no UK/Irish form – i.e. it is having its first run in Britain or Ireland under Rules – it will not show up on Instant Expert at all.

We make this feature freely available to ALL readers EVERY Thursday for ALL races, including, naturally, our selection of 'free' races as follows...

  • 12.40 Leopardstown
  • 1.05 Catterick
  • 1.50 Leopardstown
  • 3.15 Limerick

Now, I don't really go for Irish races and the Catterick race above is a maiden hurdle, again something I'm not keen on, so I'm going to go a little off-piste and head North-East for the 5.30 Newcastle, a 10-runner, Class 4, 3yo+ A/W handicap over a straight 7f on standard tapeta...

The Turpinator and Jahidin both won last time out and have both won two of their last five outings, as has Sir Maxi. Al Farabi has a win and two places from his three career starts and now makes a handicap debut off a mark of 82. Gobi Sunset won three races ago and One More Dream scored four back, but Scottish Summit, Illusionist, Swiss Ace and Alexander James are all winless in six although Illusionist has made the frame in three of those six, including over course and distance here last time out off today's mark.

Sir Maxi is noted as a fast finisher, but he's up a class here today, as are Al Farabi and Jahidin, but top weight and veteran Scottish Summit drops down two levels, but is a pound worse off than his recent three length C&D defeat nineteen days ago. That's about how long most of these have rested since their last run with all bar Al Farabi having raced in the last 12-20 days. Mind you, at 34 days off, Al Farabi shouldn't be rusty!

Illusionist is the only one of this bunch yet to win at either track or trip, Al Farabi hasn't won (or even raced!) here at Newcastle and Alexander James has yet to win over 7f. Of the other seven with wins at both 7f and at Newcastle, only Scottish Summit and One More Dream are without a course and distance, as their wins here were over a mile and 6f respectively. Feature of the day Instant Expert is where we'll see all the relevant stats from previous races...

...where Jahidin is the eye-catcher with the sole line of green. The Turpinator and Sir Maxi also have some good numbers to their credit. Gobi Sunset's record at going, class and distance would make him a highly unlikely winner here and although Illusionist's stats aren't good at all, he is a regular placer. I don't see him as a winner here, but his recent efforts on this track keep him in contention for the minor honours.

He's actually drawn in stall 2 with only Scottish Summit keeping him away from the rail and unusually for a straight run on an artificial surface, we do have a bit of a draw bias and it doesn't help Scottish Summit or Illusionist...

Those races above, as with many straight 7f contests, have often been won by horses showing early speed...

...with prominent runners and leaders winning 52.9% of the races from just 44.8% of the runners. This, based on this field's most recent efforts point to good starts for Al Farabi, Jahidin, Gobi Sunset and The Turpinator...

Summary

Pace often wins the race over a straight 7f and Al Farabi, Jahidin, Gobi Sunset and The Turpinator look like the ones who'll be setting the early tempo. I'm happy to rule Gobi Sunset out of the equation based on form and Instant Expert, where he has been shown to struggle in similar races.

This leaves me with a three-horse shortlist of Al Farabi, Jahidin and The Turpinator and all three could win this. Jahidin was the immediate eye-catcher from Instant Expert, but he's up 2lbs and one class after only winning by a nose last time out.

The Turpinator is only up 3lbs for a three-quarter length success at class, course and distance recently and he was staying on well at the end, so I think he has a marginally better chance than Jahidin.

Al Farabi carries 5lbs more than Jahidin and he was a beaten odds-on favourite last time out a full length behind Guy Fawkes who has since been beaten by over three lengths at odds as short as 1/5. Al Farabi is hardly thrown in at the weights here and although I expect it to be tight between this trio, I think The Turpinator might be the most likely winner.

The early (3.45pm) market was formed by bet365 and they go...

...and with only the bottom four priced beyond 8/1, I'll not be having an E/W play here.

Racing Insights, Thursday 21/12/2023

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Thursday's free feature, the Instant Expert racecard tab is one of Geegeez readers' most popular tools because it has the unique ability to condense the entire form profile of every runner in the race into a single, easily digestible, view covering the form in terms of wins (or places), runs, and win (or place) percentage for each of going, class, course, distance, and field size.

It also compares today’s official rating with the horse’s last winning official rating. The display is colour coded: green for a higher percentage rate, amber for a middling percentage, and red for a low percentage. Horses with no form under a certain condition have grey figures.

IMPORTANT NOTE: Where a horse has no UK/Irish form – i.e. it is having its first run in Britain or Ireland under Rules – it will not show up on Instant Expert at all.

We make this feature freely available to ALL readers EVERY Thursday for ALL races, including, naturally, our selection of 'free' races as follows...

  • 1.25 Exeter
  • 2.55 Exeter
  • 3.08 Southwell
  • 3.15 Ffos Las

I'm not particularly keen on any of those, so I'll focus on the day's highest rated race, the 4.10 Southwell, a 7-runner, Class 2, 3yo+ A/W handicap over a straight 5f on standard tapeta...

Clarendon House and Clearpoint both won last time out and the latter has won two of his last three and now makes a Southwell debut. Exalted Angel and Alligator Alley were both placed third on their last outings, but the former hasn't won any of his last 22 races! Elsewhere Fine Wine and May Sonic are winless in eight and nine races respectively.

Exalted Angel will hope that a drop in class (3rd of 10 in a Listed race LTO) is halepful towards snapping his cold spell, but Clearpoint and Bedford Flyer both step up in class, despite the latter coming home 7th of 9 last time out. He does now wear a visor for the first time, though.

Fine Wine is coming back from a three-month break here, but the remainder have all been out in the last four to six weeks. Clarendon House and Clearpoint both race at Southwell for the first time, but both have already won at least once over this trip, whilst all five of their rivals are former course and distance winners, as shown below in our feature of the day, Instant Expert...

...where Alligator Alley is the immediate eyecatcher. Fine Wine has a good set of numbers, but defeat in a couple of valuable Class 2 races prevents him having a line of green. Clarendon House and Clearpoint are both relatively inexperienced on the A/W, whilst Exalted Angel & May Sonic look a little out of their depth here, a though backed up by the place stats...

...which suggest we should focus on Clarendon House, Fine Wine, Alligator Alley and possibly Clearpoint. This quartet are drawn in stalls 1 to 4 over a straight 5 furlongs, so you wouldn't expect them to have an advantage from being drawn low to middle, other than Alligator Alley possibly having the rail to keep him straight, but let's check the stats from previous past races...

These do suggest there's little in the draw from a win perspective, but there does seem to be a small advantage being drawn low with regards to making the frame, as shown below in the stall-by-stall analysis...

...but I suspect that, as with most straight 5f sprints, pace will win the race and here at Southwell, those races above have mainly been won by those setting the pace, with those chasing often running on for a place...

...and this might be where the previously heralded Alligator Alley might run into trouble...

He'll have the rail, but there's a risk he gets cuts across by those making a quicker start.

Summary

I do like Alligator Alley here, but I'm concerned that his path might be blocked if he doesn't ping the gates and his past form suggests that he won't do that here. He still looks good for a top three finish (a handful of bookies are paying five places), but at a best price of 11/4, I can't be going E/W with him. Clearpoint is also 11/4 and he's 3 from 4 on the A/W including 2 from 2 on tapeta. He made all and ran on well tin by almost two lengths over this trip at Wolverhampton last time out and that performance looks like being the one to beat here, so it would be Clearpoint for me.

All of which leaves me with Fine Wine and Clarendon House and both of these are more than capable of making the frame. The latter could well go on to win and is reasonably well priced at 4/1. As for Fine Wine, he's far from my idea of a winner and would need some luck to make the frame based on the qualities of the other trio I've mentioned, but if one of them falters, 8/1 E/W (3 places) with bet365 might be useful.

Please Note : No column tomorrow (Thursday for Friday's racing), as I'm out on a Christmas jolly, but I'll be back with you on Friday for my last pre-Christmas post.

Racing Insights, Monday 18/12/23

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The pace tab on our racecards helps to make a reasoned assumption based upon a field's most recent runs as to how their next race might unfold. This information is vastly under-used by UK bettors, but we feel it's that important that we make this info totally free for all races every Sunday & Monday.

This, of course, includes our daily free races, which for Monday are...

  • 2.10 Plumpton
  • 2.55 Musselburgh
  • 5.00 Wolverhampton

...of which, the first is the highest-rated on a day of fairly mediocre standard racing across three fixtures. The race is the 2.10 Plumpton, a 10-runner, Class 4, 4yo+ Handicap Chase over a left-handed 3m2f on good to soft ground...

Bottom-weight Guguss Collonges brings the best recent results to the table as our only LTO winner and has won two of his last three, as also has Tip Top Mountain, but was 7th here over course and distance recently. Sublime Heights is 2 from 5 and Henschke won two races ago, but half of the field are winless in five (or more!) starts.

All of these have had a run in the last six weeks, so all should be race-ready. The top five in the weights are all dropping down from Class 3, whilst the two at the bottom of the card/weights are both up a class here. Movethechains is winless in six, so his yard have decided to apply blinkers for the first time and have installed a 10lb claimer to lighten the load.

Six of the field (I See You Well, Tip Top Mountain, Sublime Heights, Henschke, Special Acceptance & Uallrightharry) have already scored over course and distance, whilst Guguss Collonges has won a 2m4f chase here previously. Milan Bridge (from legendary sire Milan) won a 3m2f hurdle at Hereford back in March 2022, but Movethechains and Almazhar Garde have won at neither track nor trip, although they have both landed events at slightly shorter distances as shown on Instant Expert below...

...where Tip Top Mountain is the immediate eye-catcher and top-weight I See You Well only appears to be let down by his 1 from 10 record on good to soft, which is strange, as he's 5 from 18 on Good and 2 from 8 on Soft, so you'd have expected him to have fared better on good to soft? Sublime Heights has less experience under these conditions, but has fared well enough whilst Movethechains should relish the trip on good to soft ground.

Monday's free feature is access to the pace profile for all races, showing how horses have run in their last few outings and for this race, it looks like this...

...with the in-form Guguss Collonges and Instant Expert eyecatcher Tip Top Mountain showing as confirmed front-runners, whilst I'd expect Special Acceptance to be held up in a race that hasn't been particularly kind to front-runners in the past...

Summary

When assessing recent form allied to the collateral relevant results via Instant Expert and also the pace data above, we're getting a mixed message.

On form, I'd want to be with Guguss Collonges, Tip Top Mountain, Sublime Heights and maybe Henschke, whilst Instant Expert suggested Tip Top Mountain, I See You Well, Sublime Heights and Movethechains, whilst only Special Acceptance and I See You Well look like being held up.

So, none of them tick all three boxes, but Tip Top Mountain, Sublime Heights and I See You Well feature twice, but to be honest with you, you can make a case for most of the field here, so I won't be having a bet.

If I was, though, I'd probably take Tip Top Mountain to win (5/1 with Hills at 3.45pm) and maybe a small E/W play on Sublime Heights (currently 10's), but aside from Milan Bridge and Uallrightharry (a pair I'm not keen on), any of these could win/place in what looks a competitive affair.

Racing Insights, Thursday 14/12/2023

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Thursday's free feature, the Instant Expert racecard tab is one of Geegeez readers' most popular tools because it has the unique ability to condense the entire form profile of every runner in the race into a single, easily digestible, view covering the form in terms of wins (or places), runs, and win (or place) percentage for each of going, class, course, distance, and field size.

It also compares today’s official rating with the horse’s last winning official rating. The display is colour coded: green for a higher percentage rate, amber for a middling percentage, and red for a low percentage. Horses with no form under a certain condition have grey figures.

IMPORTANT NOTE: Where a horse has no UK/Irish form – i.e. it is having its first run in Britain or Ireland under Rules – it will not show up on Instant Expert at all.

We make this feature freely available to ALL readers EVERY Thursday for ALL races, including, naturally, our selection of 'free' races as follows...

  • 12.20 Taunton
  • 2.20 Naas
  • 3.40 Warwick
  • 5.30 Chelmsford
  • 6.00 Chelmsford

To be honest, none of those five make much appeal to me and the day's highest-rated UK race might well be a Listed contest, but small-field Novice chases don't float my boat either. Next best is the day's sole Class 2 race, so we'll head there and take a look at the 8.00 Chelmsford, a 9-runner, Class 2, 3yo+ A/W handicap over a left-handed mile on standard polytrack...

Top-weight Tacarib Bay was a winner last time out, as were Fantastic Fox and Desert Order who both seek to complete hat-tricks, but the latter might need the run as he makes just a second handicap appearance more than 14 months after he last raced. Excel Power and Rhythm N Rock are the only ones winless in their last six (7 & 9 respectively, actually) races.

Despite winning a Listed race at Newcastle four weeks ago, top-weight Tacarib Bay actually drops down in class here, but the bottom four on the card/weights, Rhythm N Rock, Batemans Bay, hat-trick seeking Fantastic Fox and Lord Bertie all step up from Class 3 with the latter making a yard debut for Jane Chapple-Hyam, having left William Haggas during the 12-week break since his last outing.

Aside from the obvious 423 day absence of Desert Order (he has been gelded in that time), only Diderot at 189 days has been away longer than Lord Bertie with the other six runners all having been out at least once in the last four to eight weeks.

Class-dropper Tacarib Bay and the returning Desert Order have both yet to win over a mile unlike their seven rivals, of which three, Diderot, Excel Power and the fast-finishing Fantastic Fox (who doesn't love a bit of alliteration?), are all former course and distance winners.

Despite winning a Listed race recently, Tacarib Bay shows up on Instant Expert with a 0 from 3 record at Class 2...

...but his rivals have hardly been prolific in this grade and I don't think he's going to be outclassed here. Diderot's Class 2 record is even worse, but Helm Rock and Fantastic Fox look well suited albeit from a small sample size of races, whilst Excel Power has more experience and wins to his name.

As Instant Expert is today's guest feature, we'll have a quick glance at the place stats, but they don't really help to separate the runners for us...

Here at Chelmsford over a mile the pace angle has been more of an issue than the draw, but both are important of course. What we have seen in similar past races is that the lower a horse has been drawn the greater its chances of placing and ultimately winning, whilst it's well versed about this track being a bit of a speedway where early pace is amply rewarded. A slight anomaly appears on the pace/draw heat map, though, with the mid-drawn leader faring best of all, one assumes it's to do with not having as sharp a turn to make, somewhat similar to a Formula 1 'racing line' through the apex of the bend...

The only issue we have with this field and the above data, is that there are no real out and out front-running types here, based on their most recent efforts...

...but I suspect that Desert Order, Excel Power and Lord Bertie from stalls 1, 3 and 5 will try to lead the way home from an early point, which makes Fantastic Fox's recent course and distance win very interesting, as the race report said..."held up in rear, pushed along over 1f out, soon made headway and switched left, ridden to lead inside final furlong, ran on well..." and all that came from stall 10 of 10!

Summary

Desert Order, Excel Power and Lord Bertie look like providing the early pace, but the former makes an A/W debut coming off a lengthy absence, the second-named hasn't won for over a year and the latter also makes an A/W debut and had two indifferent runs in September when last seen.

What I think will happen is that they'll drag the wider-drawn horses along and inadvertently set themselves up as targets for the in-form pair of Tacarib Bay and Fantastic Fox. This pair look most likely to succeed in my eyes and if pushed for a winner, I'd probably side with Frankel's fast-finishing Fantastic Fox (sorry!).  My 1-2 are best priced at 9/2 and 5/1 with the returning Desert Order a short-looking 2/1 or 9/4.

Elsewhere at bigger prices, Lord Bertie might be able to hold on for a place and be a reasonable E/W pick at 8/1, whilst feature of the day Instant Expert says that Helm Rock might be better than a 10/1 ticket might suggest.

Racing Insights, Thursday 07/12/23

/in /by

Apologies for the on-off nature of this column over the least week or so, I'm currently cruising the Caribbean (part of my travel agent job!) and on some days the wifi/internet is good and on some days it isn't. Normal service will be resumed next Tuesday, but until then, I'll post every day that I'm able to, so let's crack on!

Did you know that the Instant Expert tab is by far the most popular tab on the geegeez racecards?

That's because it has the ability to condense the entire form profile of every runner in the race into a single, easily digestible, view. The report covers the form in terms of wins (or places), runs, and win (or place) percentage for each of going, class, course, distance, and field size. It also compares today’s official rating with the horse’s last winning official rating. The display is colour coded: green for a higher percentage rate, amber for a middling percentage, and red for a low percentage. Horses with no form under a certain condition have grey figures.

IMPORTANT NOTE: Where a horse has no UK/Irish form – i.e. it is having its first run in Britain or Ireland under Rules – it will not show up on Instant Expert at all.

This GOLD feature is so important that we make freely available to ALL readers EVERY Thursday alongside our usual selection of FREE races which, for this Thursday are...

  • 11.12 Southwell
  • 12.20 Wincanton
  • 2.05 Wincanton
  • 2.57 Clonmel
  • 3.07 Southwell
  • 3.15 Wincanton

...and I think I'll look at the last of that list, the 3.15 Wincanton, an 8-runner, Class 4, 4yo+ handicap chase over a right-handed 3m1f on soft ground that is already heavy in places...

Take Your Time and Not Sure both won last time out and the latter has three wins and two places from his last five outings, whilst Eceparti comes here on a hat-trick after recent back to back wins at Chepstow. The rest of the field bar Striking A Pose and Edeiffs Elton have all won at least once in their last six efforts, but this pair are winless in twelve and eight respectively.

Both 'cold' horses do at least drop down a class here, as does Harlem Soul and Striking A Pose will hopefully benefit from a recent wind op. I say recent, because he only raced seven weeks ago, as did Harlem Soul. Nearly Perfect has been off the track for six months, but he's the only one who hasn't raced in the last seven weeks.

Nearly Perfect is, however, just one of two former course and distance winners in the field with Edeiffs Elton being the other, although Striking A Pose has won a 2m5½f hurdle here before and Harlem Soul has landed a pair of 2m4f chases and a 1m7½f hurdle on this track. Elsewhere, the top three in the weights, Take Your Time, Raddon Top & Not Sure have all won at similar trips to this one.

Feature of the day is Instant Expert, of course and it looks like this today...

...with Striking A Pose looking most vulnerable. Take Your Time and Raddon Top are both heavy ground winners, so they'll not be too concerned if the rain continues to fall, whilst most of the field have won at this grade. Nearly Perfect is an interesting one on paper with a full line of green and running off a mark 12lbs lower than his last win.

The caveats here are that he hasn't raced for six months and has only ran five times since winning over course and distance here on Boxing Day 2020. He did, however, finish 1311 in his four starts that year, staring and ending the year with CD wins here on soft ground, including one at Class 3.

So, if he's tuned up and ready to go, he might be able to surprise a few of his rivals here and the odds are that he's likely to want to get on with things, if the evidence of his last few races are anything to go by...

He looks like he'll have company, though, in the shape of top weight LTO winner Take Your Time and the fellow CD winner Edeiffs Elton. Our Pace Analyser suggests that this is a successful tactic to adopt, based on past similar contests...

Eceparti has also raced keenly in his last two races, so there's a good chance he'll want to join in upfront and we could have some decent early pace for soft/heavy ground stayers' chase, which might well burn a few out before the finish.

Summary

The one I think I like the most is top weight Take Your Time. He's in good nick, scored well on Instant Expert and has a good pace profile for this race. He's currently available at 4/1 with Hills (the only book open right now) and I think that's fair.

He might well have been shorter but for Eceparti being installed as the early 11/8 fav. He's  running really well, of course, having won his last two, but he looks short in the market for me, especially as he hasn't the best record of this field on going/trip. He might well win, but 11/8 makes no appeal to me.

I don't think there's a proper E/W bet for me here, but if he's ready for it, Nearly Perfect might run better than his early 12/1 ticket might suggest.

Racing insights, Thursday 23/11/23

/in /by

Did you know that the Instant Expert tab is by far the most popular tab on the geegeez racecards?

That's because it has the ability to condense the entire form profile of every runner in the race into a single, easily digestible, view. The report covers the form in terms of wins (or places), runs, and win (or place) percentage for each of going, class, course, distance, and field size. It also compares today’s official rating with the horse’s last winning official rating. The display is colour coded: green for a higher percentage rate, amber for a middling percentage, and red for a low percentage. Horses with no form under a certain condition have grey figures.

IMPORTANT NOTE: Where a horse has no UK/Irish form – i.e. it is having its first run in Britain or Ireland under Rules – it will not show up on Instant Expert at all.

This GOLD feature is so important that we make freely available to ALL readers EVERY Thursday alongside our usual selection of FREE races which, for this Thursday are...

  • 12.20 Wincanton
  • 1.55 Thurles
  • 3.05 Thurles
  • 3.35 Newcastle
  • 7.00 Wolverhampton

The last of that list is the highest-rated of the UK free races, so let's consider the 7.00 Wolverhampton, an 11-runner, Class 2, 3yo+ A/W handicap over a left-handed 1m6f on standard tapeta...

Our sole LTO winner, Sonnerie Power has left Roger Varian's yard in th elast five weeks and makes a debut for his new yard here, but is up two classes. Of his rivals, only Capital Theory was placed last time around and he's up one class here, as is bottom weight El Picador, who is one of five (along with Prydwen, Nolton Cross, Rhythmic Intent and Inuit) who have been beaten in at least their last seven races on the bounce.

Nolton Cross has been off the track the longest at 75 days, but that shouldn't really be an issue here and he's one of three (Prydwen and Capital Theory being the others) to have already won here at Wolverhampton, but only Zealandia had won over today's trip before.

Feature of the day, Instant Expert, shows the field's success (or lack of) under similar conditions and we can show you Flat & A/W wins combined, as well as just the A/W data...

The obvious immediate standouts are Prydwen, Capital Theory and Nolton Cross, but they've hardly set the world on fire at Class 2 with just 2 combined wins from 31 efforts. Mind you, none of this field have particularly shone at this grade,but all bar Prydwen, Inuit, Sonnerie Power, El Picador and Oneforthegutter have won at Class 3.

When there's not much 'green' around on Instant Expert, I tend to then look at the place stats to see who might well run a decent race and be close to or in the frame, because one of those in the frame will go on to win! So here's the corresponding place data to those races above...

...where you could make a case for a handful of runners on Flat & A/W form, but the A/W data is considerably more clear-cut.

Somewhat unusually for a race of this distance, there is actually some semblance of a draw bias, although not huge with those drawn higher tending to do better from a win perspective...

...but this is somewhat tempered/conflicted by the PRB3 data which suggests the lower end of the draw tend to beat more rivals home...

...so maybe there's not a great deal to be made from the draw, I suppose it's down to how you interpret the data. What isn't in doubt, though, is the fact that front-runners really don't do very well over this type of contest...

...which, based on the evidence of the field's last few races, doesn't look too good for the likes of Capital Theory or Rhythmic Intent...

Summary

The two horses I like the most here, Chillingham and Capital Theory are the top two in the market at best prices of 9/2 and 5/1, but the former has little/no experience at trip/surface and the latter looks like failing to win by being the pace-maker. They're both more than capable of making the frame, but I'm not sure I want to put money on them and I think I'd like to focus on the others who made some appeal on Instant Expert ie Prydwen, Nolton Cross and Barenboim.

All three look like they could go well here and if I was pushed to nominate one as a potential winner, then it's be the 5/1 Nolton Cross who looks dangerous off his current mark. The other two might well need some luck in running, but at odds of around 9/1, they might well be of interest to E/W bettors.

PS No post tomorrow (Thursday for Friday) as I'm otherwise engaged, but back again with you on Friday.

Racing Insights, Thursday 16/11/23

/in /by

Thursday's free feature, the Instant Expert racecard tab is one of Geegeez readers' most popular tools because it has the unique ability to condense the entire form profile of every runner in the race into a single, easily digestible, view covering the form in terms of wins (or places), runs, and win (or place) percentage for each of going, class, course, distance, and field size.

It also compares today’s official rating with the horse’s last winning official rating. The display is colour coded: green for a higher percentage rate, amber for a middling percentage, and red for a low percentage. Horses with no form under a certain condition have grey figures.

IMPORTANT NOTE: Where a horse has no UK/Irish form – i.e. it is having its first run in Britain or Ireland under Rules – it will not show up on Instant Expert at all.

We make this feature freely available to ALL readers EVERY Thursday for ALL races, including, naturally, our selection of 'free' races as follows...

  • 12.30 Market Rasen
  • 1.15 Taunton
  • 3.10 Sedgefield
  • 3.15 Punchestown

Aside from a 5-runner Listed race at Market Rasen, there's nothing higher than a Class 4 contest in the UK on Thursday, so with that in mind, I'm going to swerve the free races and potential weather disruptions and head down to Essex for the 6.00 Chelmsford, a 12-runner, Class 4, 3yo+ A/W handicap over a left-handed 7f on standard polytrack...

Top weight Sir Oliver is our only LTO winner in the field having won a 12-runner handicap over this trip at Lingfield nine days ago beating the re-opposing Riot (5th) and Jilly Cooper (12th) by 1.15 and 42 lengths respectively. Riot is however 5lbs better off with the winner today. Consistent placer Revolutionise, Society Lion and Englebert all made the frame last time around and G'daay, Society Lion, Eden Storm, Hot Chesnut and Engelbert have all won inside their last six outings.

The bottom three on the card are our class movers with Hot Chesnut down a level and Engelbert & Spacer up from Class 5 with the latter now blinkered for the first time, whilst Maxi Boy now makes a debut in a visor. Most of the filed have had a recent run, but Society Lion has had ten weeks off and Revolutionise races for the first time since a narrow course and distance defeat over seven months ago.

Maxi Boy is the only runner in the field yet to win over this trip and five (Sir Oliver, Revolutionise, G'daay, Riot & Hot Chesnut) have scored over track and trip, as seen here on Instant Expert...

...which although not painting too impressive a picture, does suggest the likes of Sir Oliver and Revolutionise might go well here. Riot, Little Boy Blue and Spacer are short on standard going wins, G'daay and Little boy Blue have poor Class 4 records on the A/W and Sir Oliver has struggled to get ahead here at Chelmsford in the past, whilst Hot Chesnut has hardly set the world on fire at this trip.

With not much winning form/green boxes above, it might prove prudent to look at the place stats to at least see who might be in the mix here...

...from which, I think I want to focus more on the runners in stalls 3, 4, 5, 7, 9 & 10...

...over a course and distance that our Draw Analyser suggests that there's very little to be gained from any particular stall...

On bare stats from 60+ races, it looks like high draws win more often, but low draws make the frame more consistently, so I'd be inclined to suggest the draw here, isn't as influential as race tactics aka pace might be and if we look at those races above through the Pace Analyser, we get a familiar Chelmsford picture...

...where prominent runners do well, but upfront is really the place to be, which should suit Maxi Boy, Sir Oliver and Revolutionise more than the other three on my whittled down version of Instant Expert...

...if they run like they normally do, of course!

Summary

If after discarding half of the field after the Instant Expert analysis, I'm left with the six runners above, then I'm more drawn to the first three named but Maxi Boy hasn't won any of his last seventeen and will need his first-time visor to perk him up a little. I'm not suggesting he can't/won't make the frame, but early odds (Only Hills showing prices at 2.30pm Wednesday) of 10/1 aren't doing it for me. Had he been 16's or bigger, I might have been tempted with a couple of quid.

This leaves me with Sir Oliver & Revolutionise and I suspect they'll finish in that order, but that suits me fine with a 5/1 win bet and a 17/2 E/W option at the time of writing.

Riot is the current 7/2 favourite and that sort of makes sense now that he's 5lbs better off with Sir Oliver with only just over a length to make up, but he tends to be held up and might well leave himself with too much to do here to win, but could well make the frame and even split my two picks.

Racing Insights, Thursday 09/11/23

/in /by

Thursday's free feature, the Instant Expert racecard tab is one of Geegeez readers' most popular tools because it has the unique ability to condense the entire form profile of every runner in the race into a single, easily digestible, view covering the form in terms of wins (or places), runs, and win (or place) percentage for each of going, class, course, distance, and field size.

It also compares today’s official rating with the horse’s last winning official rating. The display is colour coded: green for a higher percentage rate, amber for a middling percentage, and red for a low percentage. Horses with no form under a certain condition have grey figures.

IMPORTANT NOTE: Where a horse has no UK/Irish form – i.e. it is having its first run in Britain or Ireland under Rules – it will not show up on Instant Expert at all.

We make this feature freely available to ALL readers EVERY Thursday for ALL races, including, naturally, our selection of 'free' races as follows...

  • 12.50 Ludlow
  • 1.05 Clonmel
  • 3.10 Ludlow
  • 3.45 Ludlow
  • 3.55 Sedgefield

Those races above don't really grab my attention, so I'm going to have a look at the day's highest rated handicap hurdle in the UK, the 2.25 Newbury, a 12-runner, Class 2 affair over a left-handed 3m 52yds (+138 yds) on good to soft/soft ground...

Emitom, Young Butler and bottom-weight Equinus all won last time out, whilst Hititi has won his last three with Fifty Ball the only one without a 'recent' win, having lost eight on the bounce.

LTO winners Hititi, Emitom and Equinus are all up one class here, as are Zanza, Only the Bold and regular runner-up Martha Brae whilst another LTO winner Young Butler is up two classes for his yard debut for Paul O'Brien.

Conversely Our Power, Dolphin Square and Grumpy Charley all drop down from Class 1 action. Equinus and Fifty Ball last ran 11 and 33 days ago respectively, but the rest of the field have been off the track for six to nine months, during which time Only The Bold had wind surgery.

Only four of these (Bold Endeavour, Grumpy Charley, Martha Brae and Fifty Ball) have yet to win over a similar trip, whilst Dolphin Square and Emitom have won over course and distance. Our Power (2m1f hurdle), Zanza (2m½f, 2m6½f & 2m7½f chases) and Grumpy Charley (2m6½f & 3m2½f chases) are also former Newbury winners, as shown below on Instant Expert...

That's overall NH form, of course, so we now need to remove the chasing stats from the above, as follows...

...where only Fifty Ball has struggled to win with these underfoot conditions. We're a bit shy on Class 2 experience/wins, but Dolphin Square's 3 from 8 is decent enough. Zanza and Emitom are the pick on course hurdle wins, whilst the field's record at 3m+ looks a bit patchy in the main with Martha Brae's 1 from 11 looking particularly poor, although as you can see below, she did make the frame in four of her ten defeats...

From the above, Dolphin Square looks like being a candidate for an E/W bet with a solid line of green off a decent sample size of races and off a mark 4lbs lower than his last win back in December. He's also had 10 wins and 5 places from the 19 starts under today's jockey. If he runs like he has in his last four races and the rest of the field do the same, then I'd expect him to be quite prominent in the upper half of the field and he did win five races ago from a prominent position...

Bold Endeavour looks like being the one to set the tempo here, with likely favourite Equinus towards the rear along with Zanza and Young Butler, but our Pace Analyser of past similar races suggests that the back of the field might not be the place to run from...

Summary

Equinus is the current fav at a generally available 15/8, although Bet365 do offer 9/4. I think this is a bit skinny about a horse who is likely to have to pass most of the field late on. That said, he's unexposed at the trip and won well at Aintree last time out. He gets weight all round and isn't penalised for his LTO win and might well be the one to beat, but I can't be backing him at 15/8.

I'm not sure who'd beat him, though, if I'm honest. Front runner Bold Endeavour might try to put enough distance between himself and the fav, but he's carrying 12-0 which will be tough here and 13/2 isn't E/W territory for me. Sadly the same applies to 7/1 shot Hititi, who also comes here in great form and has a good pace profile for this race. he'd need a career best to win, but I think he's in with a great shout of making the frame (4 places) and I'd certainly be interested at 8's or bigger.

All of which brings me back to prolific placer Dolphin Square. He too has a good pace profile for this contest, his IE place stats are the best on offer and he gets on really well with today's jockey.

He's 4lbs below his last win and at 10/1 (generally), he's my E/W fancy, whilst at bigger (18's) odds, Our Power is an interest as he switches back to hurdles. He went into this year's Grand National off the back of consecutive Class 1 handicap chase wins over 3m and ran really well for a long way in the national before finishing 11th. he runs off 4lbs lower here and the drop in trip and easier jumping might just be his ticket.

Racing Insights, Thursday 02/11/23

/in /by

Thursday's free feature, the Instant Expert racecard tab is one of Geegeez readers' most popular tools because it has the unique ability to condense the entire form profile of every runner in the race into a single, easily digestible, view covering the form in terms of wins (or places), runs, and win (or place) percentage for each of going, class, course, distance, and field size.

It also compares today’s official rating with the horse’s last winning official rating. The display is colour coded: green for a higher percentage rate, amber for a middling percentage, and red for a low percentage. Horses with no form under a certain condition have grey figures.

IMPORTANT NOTE: Where a horse has no UK/Irish form – i.e. it is having its first run in Britain or Ireland under Rules – it will not show up on Instant Expert at all.

We make this feature freely available to ALL readers EVERY Thursday for ALL races, including, naturally, our selection of 'free' races as follows...

  • 1.30 Thurles
  • 2.10 Wolverhampton
  • 2.15 Newcastle
  • 2.30 Lingfield
  • 3.15 Thurles
  • 3.30 Stratford

Our free races above are all pretty low grade affairs, so I'm just going to blindly look at the day's highest rated races instead, of which there are four Class 3 contests. I'm happy to swerve the pair of Novice Hurdle contests, leaving me with a 7-runner chase and a 9-runner hurdle. As I do like the odd E/W flutter, I'm going to focus on the latter, which happens to be the 1.55 Lingfield, a 9-runner, Class 3, 3yo+ handicap hurdle over a left-handed 2m on good to soft/soft ground. More rain is coming, so I expect this to be run on soft ground...

Bottom weight Havaila was a 75-;ength winner of a two-horse race on his last effort over hurdles (April) but has kept sharp with a run on the flat three weeks ago. Hecouldbetheone has been a runner-up in each of his last two and has won two of six, whilst all bar Front View have a win in their most recent form line.

Plenty of class-movers here, as Yorksea, Hecouldbetheone, Believe Jack and Havaila all step up one level and Made For You is up three. Go Dante drops a class and Branson Missouri drops two. This will be handicap debut day for both Believe Jack and Hecouldbetheone and the latter runs for Chris Gordon for the first time since leaving Gary Moore. Front View wears a tongue tie for the first time here, as does top-weight Go Dante.

Yorksea, Front View and Havaila have all had the benefit of a run in the last three weeks, but Made For You, Go Dante and Totterdown have been off for 6-8 months. Branson Missouri returns from a 10-month absence, whilst the handicap debutants Hecouldbetheone and Believe Jack might well need the run after layoffs of 19 and 22 months respectively.

Branson Missouri is the only one of these to have raced here at Lingfield before (2nd of 10, beaten by 8.5 lengths in Nov '22 over 2m3½f) and he's also one of six to have scored over a similar trip to this one, with only Yorksea, Hecouldbetheone and Havaila yet to do so, as documented by Instant Expert...

Not a lot to report upon there, but Go Dante's two soft ground wins are interesting and he ahs won at the trip. Front View and Made For You have poor win records on soft ground, but I think we need some help from the place data...

...which paints a much better picture for many of these, but I'm not sure it helps me narrow the race down, aside from casting Totterdown from the process.

Our Pace Analyser gives us the following data from past similar contests...

...which based on this field's last few outings...

...probably points to Havaila as the prominent runner ready to pounce on the leaders.

Summary

If I'm brutally honest, I'm not getting any strong feeling for this race and my advice would be to leave it and walk away.

The Geegeez ethos is that if there isn't a bet there, don't force one, so I'm declaring this a no bet for me. The early market suggests a 3-horse race...

..and they're probably right, but there's not enough to interest me in any of that trio at 7/2 or shorter and I'm not keen on any of the longer-priced runners. Fingers crossed for a better choice fo race tomorrow!

Racing Insights, Thursday 26/10/23

/in /by

Thursday's free feature, the Instant Expert racecard tab is one of Geegeez readers' most popular tools because it has the unique ability to condense the entire form profile of every runner in the race into a single, easily digestible, view covering the form in terms of wins (or places), runs, and win (or place) percentage for each of going, class, course, distance, and field size.

It also compares today’s official rating with the horse’s last winning official rating. The display is colour coded: green for a higher percentage rate, amber for a middling percentage, and red for a low percentage. Horses with no form under a certain condition have grey figures.

IMPORTANT NOTE: Where a horse has no UK/Irish form – i.e. it is having its first run in Britain or Ireland under Rules – it will not show up on Instant Expert at all.

We make this feature freely available to ALL readers EVERY Thursday for ALL races, including, naturally, our selection of 'free' races as follows...

  • 3.05 Lingfield
  • 3.20 Carlisle
  • 4.50 Southwell
  • 5.11 Ludlow
  • 5.30 Wolverhampton

The highest rated of those four that have survived the weather is the 3.20 Carlisle, an 11-runner, Class 3, 3yo+ handicap hurdle over a right-handed 2m1f on good to soft/soft ground...

Only three of this field, Malangen, Thereisnodoubt and Well Educated have had the benefit of a relatively recent run, but the rest of the field have been out of action for 124 to 598 days. Thereisnodoubt is the sole LTO winner in the field, but Well Educated and Russian Virtue were both in the frame on their last outings.

Well Educated, however, is the only runner in the field without a win in their last three races, as he has been beaten in each of his last eight starts since a purple patch from April to October last year which saw him finish 1213111, elevating his mark from 98 to 118. He now runs off 100, so it's form rather than weight keeping him out of the winners' enclosure, I'd have thought.

That last win of his was in this very race making him the sole course (and course/distance) winner in this field, whilst all bar Gardener, Golden Glance and Holly have scored over a similar trip elsewhere. Of that trio yet to win at the trip, Gardener and Golden Glance now run in a handicap for only the second time and the latter drops two classes to run here, whilst the former is up a level, as are Grain D'Oudairies (handicap debut today), Russian Virtue and LTO heavy-ground winner Thereisnodoubt.

Thereisnodoubt has actually won 3 times from 8 starts on heavy ground and has made the frame in 2 of his 5 defeats, but Instant Expert suggests today's going might not be soft enough for him...

...and Voix de Reve also looks unsuited by the underfoot conditions. Russian Virtue looks to be the one who'll relish good to soft/soft ground the most with a 50% win record, but Moonlight Glory will prefer it to dry a little whilst Malangen would want more rain. Well Educated's sole Class 3 win came in this race last year and Malangen is winless in five, but most of them to have tackled the trip have done OK. Only Well Educated runs off a lower mark than their last handicap success.

The place stats to go with those races above look like this...

...where quite a few of them will want the ground to soften up further and on the basis of the above, Russian Virtue has to be of interest for the frame whilst Voix du Reve looks the weakest.

Previous similar races in the past here at Carlisle have seen those setting the pace do quite well, but they have sometimes been vulnerable to being picked off late on by the stalking prominent runners in the past...

...but anywhere in the upper reaches of the pace chart would be a good starting point in my opinion and based on the field's recent runs...

...LTO winner Thereisnodoubt looks set to contest the early lead with Gardener, whilst the hold-up tactics generally employed by Voix du Reve would appear to be yet another nail in the coffin for his chances of winning here.

Summary

If we start with the pace chart, Thereisnodoubt won last time out and has had a recent run. He'd definitely prefer softer ground, but it has been wet in the North again today. Gardener was well beaten on his handicap debut nine months ago and hasn't been seen since.

Jante Law is certain to need a run after 598 days off, I know he won his penultimate outing, but that was some 30 months ago, having unseated his rider on his sole run last year. Malangen is a consistent enough sort off marks in the high 80's to low/mid 90's, but looks to be carrying too much here off 100.

Grain D'Oudairies won on hurdles debut, before tiring late on in a 2m3½f contest here at Carlisle back in April. The drop in trip should help him and after just three career outings (1 x NHF, 2 x Hrd), he's certainly unexposed and Well Educated won this race last last year from his usual mid-division/prominent running position. He was in great form this time last year, but had toiled since then until a drop in mark of late saw him make the frame at Bangor and Cartmel in August.

Of those mentioned above, I'm not really interested in Gardener, Jante Law or Malangen, but that still leaves three under consideration plus Russian Virtue due to his Instant Expert scores.

I do like Thereisnodoubt, but I've concerns about the going and a 4lb rise in weight and with that in mind, I don't think 11/2 offers much value. Grain D'Oudairies is the current favourite at 10/3 with Bet365 (just 11/4 with Hills) and whilst he might well be the one to beat, he's unproven and the price is too skinny for me.

As for Russian Virtue and Well Educated, they are both currently available at 12's and I think that a small E/W bet on either (or both) would be my way forward here. I'm not convinced either have what's needed to win this, but both are more than capable of making the frame, especially with Betfred, Coral & Sky paying four places.

Racing Insights, Thursday 19/10/23

/in /by

Thursday's free feature, the Instant Expert racecard tab is one of Geegeez readers' most popular tools because it has the unique ability to condense the entire form profile of every runner in the race into a single, easily digestible, view covering the form in terms of wins (or places), runs, and win (or place) percentage for each of going, class, course, distance, and field size.

It also compares today’s official rating with the horse’s last winning official rating. The display is colour coded: green for a higher percentage rate, amber for a middling percentage, and red for a low percentage. Horses with no form under a certain condition have grey figures.

IMPORTANT NOTE: Where a horse has no UK/Irish form – i.e. it is having its first run in Britain or Ireland under Rules – it will not show up on Instant Expert at all.

We make this feature freely available to ALL readers EVERY Thursday for ALL races, including, naturally, our selection of 'free' races as follows...

  • 3.35 Carlisle
  • 3.55 Brighton
  • 4.20 Wincanton
  • 4.45 Carlisle
  • 5.10 Thurles

...and the highest rated of the four UK races is the 3.35 Carlisle, 12-runners, Class 3, 4yo+ handicap chase over a right-handed 3m½f on good ground...

Wasdell Dundalk is the only runner in the field to have won last time out and he comes here on the back of three straight wins over a similar trip to this one (all at Perth). Guetapan Collonges, The Kniphand and Ned tanner have all also won at least two of their last five outings, whilst only Morning Spirit is without a win in five.

Only Silver in Disguise and Ned Tanner ran at Class 3 last time around as Morning Spirit, The Kniphand, Dallas des Pictons and in-form Wasdell Dundalk all drop down a class, whilst joint top weights Gueatpan Collonges and Mexico both drop two classes, as does Your Own Story. Conversely Giovanni Change, East Street and bottom weight Court Dreaming are all up one class.

Most of the field are running after four to seven months off the track, but Wasdell Dundalk, Dallas des Pictons and Giovanni Change have been seen more recently at 22, 29 and 71 days respectively.

All bar Mexico, Giovanni Change and Ned tanner have won over a similar trip, whilst Morning Spirit and Court Dreaming have both won over course and distance. Your Own Story has also won here at Carlisle in the past, landing a 3m1½f Novice Hurdle in March '22.

Other relative/collateral form is shown here in Instant Expert...

...where the in-form and class-dropping Wasdell Dundalk catches the eye, especially as only he and Guetapan Collonges have won at Class 2. He is, of course, up 6lbs for his most recent win, but he did win by 14 lengths without exerting himself and the runner-up has made the frame at Class 2 again since. The place stats from those races above look like this...

...with honourable mentions going to Your Own Story and Ned Tanner amongst others. Wasdell Dundalk's last three runs/wins have come from racing further down the field and if this group race as they have done in their last few outings, then I suspect that the early pace would come from Giovanni Change and Dallas des Pictons...

...and that probably represents their best chance of getting something from the races, as past similar contests here suited front-running types...

Summary

His recent pace profile suggests he might struggle here, but everything else points to Wasdell Dundalk for me. He's in-form, down in class, hasn't been massively punished for a cosy win three weeks ago, won't need the run to clear his pipes and was the standout on Instant Expert. 1 in 16 hold-up horses win here at Carlisle, he might just be that one and at an early price of 7/1, he'd be the one for me. In fact that's almost E/W odds territory and with most firms paying four places, you could well play it safe.

As for an E/W bet for four places, I'd want a double-digit odds runner and that currently only gives me five runners to go at, but of the five longest-priced runners, the 10/1 Ned Tanner would be the one I think could make the frame.