Tag Archive for: Instant Expert

Racing Insights, Thursday 29/06/23

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Thursday's free feature, the Instant Expert racecard tab is one of Geegeez readers' most popular tools because it has the unique ability to condense the entire form profile of every runner in the race into a single, easily digestible, view covering the form in terms of wins (or places), runs, and win (or place) percentage for each of going, class, course, distance, and field size.

It also compares today’s official rating with the horse’s last winning official rating. The display is colour coded: green for a higher percentage rate, amber for a middling percentage, and red for a low percentage. Horses with no form under a certain condition have grey figures.

IMPORTANT NOTE: Where a horse has no UK/Irish form – i.e. it is having its first run in Britain or Ireland under Rules – it will not show up on Instant Expert at all.

We make this feature freely available to ALL readers EVERY Thursday for ALL races, including, naturally, our selection of 'free' races as follows...

  • 2.00 Newmarket
  • 2.10 Newcastle
  • 4.20 Newmarket
  • 5.30 Newmarket

...from which, the 'best' looks like the 4.20 Newmarket, an 8-runner (fingers crossed for E/W bettors), Class 3, 3yo+ flat handicap over a straight 7f on good to firm ground...

None of these won last time out, but Urban Sprawl was an excellent 3rd of 29 off this mark in the Britannia at Royal Ascot last week and also won three starts ago, both at a higher grade than this. Elsewhere wins are sparse, but Final Watch won five races ago whilst Chola Empire & Dancinginthewoods both won six back.

Urban Sprawl's excellent showing at Ascot was at a class higher than today and he now drops down, as does Final Watch from a run here at HQ on the Rowley when last home of eight. The bottom two on the card, G'daay and Dancinginthewoods, both step up a class, despite failing to make the frame at Class 4 LTO.

The latter of those, Dancinginthewoods, has been off the track the longest at 112 days and Final Watch's last run was eight weeks ago, but the other half dozen have all raced in the last three weeks with Urban Sprawl rested for just a week, of course. He runs off the same mark here and as the sole three year old in this field, gets a very handy 9lb weight allowance if that Ascot display wasn't impressive enough!

All eight have already won over this trip with both Mitrosonfire and Final Watch having scored over course and distance, whilst Dancinginthewoods is a 6f winner over the July course, but according to Instant Expert, his turf record at Class 3 and 7f leave quite a bit to be desired...

...but he is 6lbs lower than his last win. Able Kane has also toiled in this grade and G'daay is yet to set the world alight on turf over 7f, but Mitrosonfire has some respectable numbers to support his case and he probably catches the eye most here, whilst the place stats suggest that Final Watch might go well off the same mark as his last win...

Only Chola Empire has failed to register so far, but having made the frame 7 times from 8 A/W starts over this trip (inc 2 wins), I wouldn't necessarily rule him out just yet, so I approach the draw stats with a full complement of eight runners to choose from and our Draw Analyser (and PRB3 stats in particular) say there's very little advantage from any stall...

That's not entirely surprising though, really. A straight track shouldn't really favour any part of the draw. Stall 1 often does better because they have the rail to keep them straight and I'm guessing that those drawn widest (8 of 8 and 9 of 9) don't do as well because they've nothing on the other side of them to stop them straying. They do, however, make the frame as often (if not slightly more) as expected. This lack of any real draw bias thus shifts the emphasis onto running styles/tactics etc aka pace and my guess would be that over a straight 7 on quick ground, you want to be up with the leaders if not actually leading and this theory is amply backed up by the data from our Pace Analyser...

...which heavily favours those racing prominently and/or leading. Leaders don't always hold on to see the winners' enclosure, but over 45% of them make the frame, whilst almost 42% of those prominent runners making the frame go on to win, a very healthy conversion rate.

So, we're not too invested in the draw, but we would like a runner that 'gets on with it' and if we look at the field's most recent outings...

...it's another tick for Urban Sprawl with Mitrosonfire and Able Kane the ones most likely to try and keep him company. Final Watch may well have good place stats on Instant Expert, but he's going to struggle from so far off the pace.

Summary

It has to be Urban Sprawl, doesn't it? A Class 2 winner at Goodwood at the end of May and third in a big field at Royal Ascot last week off this mark, he's in great nick. He has a 9lb weight allowance and is the likely leader here. If he runs anything like he did last week, he could well tear this up. Sadly he's already priced at 5/4 with Bet365 and I'm not usually playing with big enough stakes to make those odds worthwhile, but if you're not averse to shorties, there might still be some value in the price, as he might well go off at odds on.

Of the rest, I'd love Chola Empire to replicate his 7f A/W form onto grass, but a best price of 9/2 gives me nothing to work with for an unproven turf runner. Final Watch could have been an E/W possible, but again 13/2 is too short for a hold-up horse, but I quite like the chances of Mitrosonfire here. He scored well on Instant Expert and probably needed the run at Goodwood last time out, but was only 5.5 lengths off the winner despite being off for six months and at 9/1 here could be worth an E/W play, whilst Able Kane is also interesting at 10's with the tongue tie back on and down below his last winning mark. Statistically, he's well suited to make the frame based on the going, his mark, the field size, the number of days since his last run and it being a straight track.

Racing Insights, Thursday 15/06/23

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Thursday's free feature, the Instant Expert racecard tab is one of Geegeez readers' most popular tools because it has the unique ability to condense the entire form profile of every runner in the race into a single, easily digestible, view covering the form in terms of wins (or places), runs, and win (or place) percentage for each of going, class, course, distance, and field size.

It also compares today’s official rating with the horse’s last winning official rating. The display is colour coded: green for a higher percentage rate, amber for a middling percentage, and red for a low percentage. Horses with no form under a certain condition have grey figures.

IMPORTANT NOTE: Where a horse has no UK/Irish form – i.e. it is having its first run in Britain or Ireland under Rules – it will not show up on Instant Expert at all.

We make this feature freely available to ALL readers EVERY Thursday for ALL races, including, naturally, our selection of 'free' races as follows...

  • 2.20 Newbury
  • 2.50 Newbury
  • 4.30 Newbury
  • 5.10 Yarmouth
  • 5.50 Worcester
  • 7.40 Haydock

...from which, we'll look at the 4.30 Newbury, a 9-runner, Class 4, 4yo+ flat handicap over a straight 6f on good ground...

Only Shobiz won last time out and since making the frame without winning his first five races, has now won three from seven. Dakota Power, Treacherous, Sarah's Verse & Strike also have at least one win in their recent form-line.  Shobiz also benefits from a drop in class here, as do American Star, Capote's Dream and Treacherous, whilst Magnificence, Sarah's Verse and Strike are all up one class. Dakota Power actually drops two classes for his handicap debut some 558 days after his last outing when last home of three at Wolverhampton, making this also his turf debut!

Elsewhere Capote's Dream adds a first-time tongue to go with his cheekpieces, American Star wears blinkers for the second time and it's a third run in cheekpieces for Magnificence, who is the only one in the field yet to win at this type of trip. American Star has won here over 7f, whilst Shobiz won over course and distance last time out.

All bar the returning Dakota Power have raced in the last two months with Magnificence having ran as recently as last Friday, when a half length runner-up at Haydock. He goes off the same mark here, which according to Instant Expert is 3lbs higher than his last win and the weights show three runners well below their last winning marks...

I've left the above as Flat and A/W just to show turf debutant Dakota Power's decent A/W stats, but when we look at just Flat records...

...the ones of immediate interest would be American Star, Shobiz, Capote's Dream and Sarah's Verse in card order. Jack's Point hasn't fared well at this trip with 1 win from 9, but he is only 1 from 26 on the Flat overall, so he'd not be one to hang your hat on anyway. Elsewhere, there are no real alarms ringing and there's not much above to cause me to discard any others just yet.

In terms of draw stats, the bare data suggest those drawn lowest would have the upper hand...

...but there really should be too much of a draw bias over a straight 6f here and the PRB data suggests a more even spread of results...

There is a slight drop off for stall 10 in the 10-runner races, but otherwise, there's not a great deal of difference between 'best' and 'worst' stalls 2 and 9, which then suggests that as with many straight sixes on decent ground, it'll all be about pace but those races used above for the draw data aren't entirely conclusive, but you don't want to be backing a hold-up horse if you've ideas about winning here...

Leaders tend to hang on for a place, but only 29.2% of those making the frame go on to win and it's a similar return for prominent running placers, but almost 70% of those making the frame from mid-division go on to win, whilst again hold-up horses fare poorly. Based on how this field have approached their most recent outings...

...you'd have concerns about Treacherous, Capote's Dream and Sarah's Verse trying to make up ground in what might well be a falsely-run race. American Star and Dakota Power might be the ones to take it on, whilst it could well be Shobiz, Strike and Magnificence in that prized mid-division position.

Summary

From above, the positives... Shobiz won last time out; Dakota Power, Treacherous, Sarah's Verse & Strike all have a fairly recent win on their form lines. Shobiz drops in class here, as do American Star, Capote's Dream and Treacherous. American Star is a course winner over 7 and Shobiz has own over track and trip. Shobiz, Strike and Magnificence might get an advantage racing in mid-division.

The negatives... American Star, Capote's Dream, Jack's Point and Magnificence are without a recent win. Dakota Power hasn't raced on turf before and hasn't raced for a very longtime. Magnificence, Sarah's Verse and Strike are all up one class and the former is the only one without a win at this trip, whilst Jack's Point has a really poor Flat record. Treacherous, Capote's Dream and Sarah's Verse look like struggling from a hold-up position.

And from all that, Shobiz is the one whose positives far outweigh any possible negatives, which would explain why he's the early 5/4 favourite. I'm not really a fan of backing horses at that kind of price, but he really should be winning this quite cosily. Second favourite Magnificence ran well last week off today's mark, but is up in class and has been out of sorts for a long time.

Only three horses, aside from Shobiz emerge from the analysis slightly in credit after taking the negatives from the positives and they are American Star, Treacherous and Strike. If i'm honest, I don't see of them really challenging the winner, but all have a shout of making the frame, if things fall their way, of course.

Treacherous is too short to go E/W at 11/2, but American Star (12/1) & Strike (14/1) might be worth a small punt here.

 

Racing Insights, Thursday 08/06/23

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Thursday's free feature, the Instant Expert racecard tab is one of Geegeez readers' most popular tools because it has the unique ability to condense the entire form profile of every runner in the race into a single, easily digestible, view covering the form in terms of wins (or places), runs, and win (or place) percentage for each of going, class, course, distance, and field size.

It also compares today’s official rating with the horse’s last winning official rating. The display is colour coded: green for a higher percentage rate, amber for a middling percentage, and red for a low percentage. Horses with no form under a certain condition have grey figures.

IMPORTANT NOTE: Where a horse has no UK/Irish form – i.e. it is having its first run in Britain or Ireland under Rules – it will not show up on Instant Expert at all.

We make this feature freely available to ALL readers EVERY Thursday for ALL races, including, naturally, our selection of 'free' races as follows...

  • 1.50 Ffos Las
  • 3.25 Ffos Las
  • 5.15 Hamilton
  • 6.30 Leopardstown
  • 8.50 Chelmsford

...from which, we're off to the Speedway in Essex for the 8.50 Chelmsford, a 10-runner, Class 5, 3yo+ fillies' A/W handicap over a left-handed 7f on standard going polytrack...

My initial reaction was that this might well be a three-horse race between (alphabetically at this stage, of course!) Anificas Beauty, Bell Song and Invested, but let's see if the data we have at our disposal backs up or disproves my gut feeling.

The last named of my trio is the only LTO winner in the field and has two wins and a place from her last three outings, as does my first-named Anificas Beauty, Miss Sarajevo was a winner five starts ago, but the remainder are winless in at least five or even eleven in the case of maiden Topo Chico.

Lightly raced Bell Song has been third in each of her last two starts and as one of five (plus Invested, Miss Sarjevo, Kynsa & Topo Chico) three year olds in the race, she'll get a useful 10lb weight allowance here. All bar Exigency (who drops down a class) ran at this level last time out, so they should now know what to expect, but it is a first handicap run for both Bell Song & Kynsa and just a second for Invested after scoring on hcp debut just over five weeks ago and she now wears cheekpieces for the first time.

Anificas Beauty and Miss Sarajevo have both won over course and distance, whilst the only other two previous course winners are also the only other 7f winners with Nikki's Girl wining over 6f here and then over 7f at Leicester and Lingfield (AW), whilst Invested also won here over 6f and was a 7f winner at Yarmouth last time out.

The afore-mentioned Nikki's Girl might well need the run here as she turns out for the first time since mid-October, but all her rivals have been seen in the last six weeks.

Feature of the day Instant Expert shows two of my chosen trio in a very good light, but Bell Song is a three-race maiden, despite making the frame twice in April, so her win line is all red, as it is for half of the field...

That might initially ring a few alarm bells, notably for Kodias Sangarius (class), Nikki's Girl (class), Hot Chesnut (class/distance) and Topo Chico (class/distance), but Anificas Beauty & Invested do catch the eye, as does Miss Sarajevo in fairness. The place stats will undoubtedly show some of these in a better light, because i already know that bottom-weight Topo Chico is better than her win stats might suggest with six places from her nine A/W starts...

...from which, I'd only really be interested in the following...

Those numbers speak for themselves and I won't patronise you by going through them here. Interestingly, we have two low drawn runners in Invested and Topo Chico plus the four widest/highest drawn of all, so i need to dig out the draw stats to see if any of the half-dozen might be afforded an advantage from the off...

But that's not as clear cut as it might at first seem, because if we isolate the individual stalls...

...the stats for stall 2 are an anomaly in my opinion and without them in the data, the bias is far less pronounced and it's really the pace aspect of this race that will decide the winner in my opinion. Chelmsford is now well known as a front-runners paradise and when we look at the pace profiles of the horses that won those races above in the draw analyisis...

...the win percentages rise almost exponentially, the further forward your horse runs. Hold-up horses fare really badly from both win and place perspectives, mid-division runners win almost twice as often as them and prominent runners slightly more than twice the rate of the mid-divs with leaders scoring almost twice as often as the prominent runners themselves. At other tracks, an IV of 1.41 scored here by the prominent runners would be enough for top ranking, but such is the low strike rate further back, that's not the case here.

So, who might lead them out? Well, according to the field's last few runs...

...I'd say that Anifica's Beauty may try to make all, chased by Invested...

, whilst there's not much between the other four of the shortlisted six...

Summary

I started with three runners who I thought would be the main protagonists ie Anificas Beauty, Bell Song and Invested and of those, Anificas Beauty and Invested have both been very strong throughout the various stages of analysis and with their pace profiles in particular, they're going to be my 1-2.

Bell Song is probably the best of the other shortlisted horses, but you could easily make a case for the other three to steal third spot from the inexperienced 3yr old. Of my 1-2, I'm still along the lines of 'pace wins the race' and so it's Anificas Beauty over Invested here for me.

Sadly (or reassuringly, depending on the state of your glass) the bookies agree with me and have my trio of Anificas Beauty, Bell Song and Invested at 4/1, 4/1 and 7/2 respectively with no other runner shorter than 11/1! So I'll take Anificas Beauty over Invested as my 1-2. Bell Song should complete the tricast/trifecta, but for an E/W option, Topo Chico certainly makes the frame on a regualr basis, she receives weight all round and has a 3lb claimer on board, which makes her a very interesting option at 14/1 E/W with Bet365, as of 5.05pm.

Racing Insights, Thursday 01/06/23

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Thursday's free feature, the Instant Expert racecard tab is one of Geegeez readers' most popular tools because it has the unique ability to condense the entire form profile of every runner in the race into a single, easily digestible, view covering the form in terms of wins (or places), runs, and win (or place) percentage for each of going, class, course, distance, and field size.

It also compares today’s official rating with the horse’s last winning official rating. The display is colour coded: green for a higher percentage rate, amber for a middling percentage, and red for a low percentage. Horses with no form under a certain condition have grey figures.

IMPORTANT NOTE: Where a horse has no UK/Irish form – i.e. it is having its first run in Britain or Ireland under Rules – it will not show up on Instant Expert at all.

We make this feature freely available to ALL readers EVERY Thursday for ALL races, including, naturally, our selection of 'free' races as follows...

  • 4.55 Fairyhouse
  • 5.05 Roscommon
  • 5.40 Market Rasen
  • 5.50 Carlisle
  • 6.00 Fairyhouse
  • 6.50 Carlisle

If truth be told, I don't particularly like any of the 'free' races, so I'm going off piste by looking at the highest rated flat race of the day, the 4.20 Ripon, an 8-runner, Class 3, 4yo+ flat handicap over a right-handed 1m2f on good ground that will be quicker in places...

Both Pisanello and Cockalorum won last time out and all bar Society Red and Baryshnikov have won at least one of their last six outings, although the latter ran really well to fin.sh third recently in a race we covered in this column. In his favour here, is that he's down in class, as is top weight Imperial Sands, but Cockalorum, Nigwa, Tarbaan and Society Red all step up in grade.

Cockalorum has been off the track the longest, but 42 days is hardly an eternity and shouldn't affect his running here. All bar Imperial Sands, Pisanello and Tarbaan have already scored over course and distance, but the latter has at least won at today's trip, whilst Instant Expert says that all bar Imperial Sands have won on good ground and that only half of the field have scored at Class 3...

...and the inference from above is that we should be focusing our efforts on this group...

...although Cockalorum's 0 from 9 at this grade is a concern, as is Pisanello's 0 from 4 at the trip. That concern re: Pisanello isn't really alleviated by place form either...

...but I won't rule him nor Cockalorum out at this stage. My five runners are spread across the stalls from box 1 to 7 for a track/trip that hasn't really suited those drawn highest...

...whilst the winners of those races above have tended to be those up with the pace...

So, the draw hasn't been too kind to Cockalorum/Nigwa there, but what about the pace? Are any of our five willing to set the fractions here? Well, we can only guess / make a reasoned assumption and to do this, we can look at the field's most recent four races...

...and that's better news for Cockalorum, but not great for Baryshnikov or Pisanello.

Summary

I shortlisted five and none really tick all the boxes for me here. In draw order...

Pisanello is up in class and weight and might get outpaced early on.

Baryshnikov might leave himself too much to do as he did earlier this week, but he did run well when he got going and is now down in class.

Tarbaan is neither here nor there on the above, but looks less exposed under these conditions, will like the ground and the trip and gets weight from most of his rivals. Mid draw & mid-pace, probably more a placer than a winner.

Cockalorum has a poor record at Class 3 and doesn't have the best draw and although he won last time out, is now up in class and weight

Nigwa is second on the shortlist's pace chart, but all three discarded horses will probably be ahead of him in the early stages, he has the worst of the draw of my shortlisted five and if he runs like he did last time, will have to pass most of the field to win.

Honestly, any of the five could win this. Its not a great race, but it's an evenly-matched open contest that even the three discards could run well in.

Do I want to back any of these to win? No, but if I wanted to put a couple of quid down for an interest, I think I'd back Tarbaan at 11/1 E/W and if pushed I'd say Baryshnikov or Pisanello, but without any real conviction.

Racing Insights, Thursday 25/05/23

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Did you know that the Instant Expert tab is by far the most popular tab on the geegeez racecards?

That's because it has the ability to condense the entire form profile of every runner in the race into a single, easily digestible, view. The report covers the form in terms of wins (or places), runs, and win (or place) percentage for each of going, class, course, distance, and field size. It also compares today’s official rating with the horse’s last winning official rating. The display is colour coded: green for a higher percentage rate, amber for a middling percentage, and red for a low percentage. Horses with no form under a certain condition have grey figures.

IMPORTANT NOTE: Where a horse has no UK/Irish form – i.e. it is having its first run in Britain or Ireland under Rules – it will not show up on Instant Expert at all.

This GOLD feature is so important that we make freely available to ALL readers EVERY Thursday alongside our usual selection of FREE races which, for this Thursday are...

  • 3.50 Wolverhampton
  • 5.20 Chelmsford
  • 7.30 Limerick
  • 7.42 Sandown
  • 8.52 Chelmsford

The Sandown race is the only UK flat race on that list and it's also by far the highest rated. Sadly it is a small field and the bookies already think that it's a two-horse race at best including a pretty short favourite, but they're not always right, are they? I'm not saying that I won't end up agreeing with them, but if one of the two market leaders falter, then there's the chance of a decent-priced E/W placer in the 7.42 Sandown, a six-runner, Group 3, 4yo+ Flat contest over a right-handed 1m2f on good ground...

CASH has only raced four times to date and was only beaten by a short head here over course and distance in the Gr3 Classic trial 13 months ago. Came back from a five month break three weeks ago to run second in an Ascot Listed race, three quarters of a length behind Chindit, who was then second in last weekend's Gr1 Lockinge.

CHICHESTER won a Class 2 race at Newcastle back in January and has been a runner-up in two races since. He looks a useful performer at that level, but this is big step up in quality, although he has won over this trip.

CLAYMORE had a good 21/22 campaign, winning at Class 4 on debut and then was a runner-up and a winner at Group 3 in April/June of last year, before only managing to finish 4th of 5 in the group 2 York Stakes ten months ago. He hasn't raced since then and may well need the run. His win in Ascot's Hampton Court Stakes was over today's trip, though.

DESERT CROWN comes here having won all three career starts. He landed a Class 4 maiden at Nottingham on his only run as a 2yr old, before landing the Gr2 Dante and the Epsom Derby last season. I don't personally think last year's Derby has worked out well for subsequent winners, but if this one is ready to go first up after virtually a year off, then he's likely to be the one to catch.

HUKUM was also last seen landing a Group 1 prize at Epsom back in June 2022, as he came home almost 4.5 lengths clear in the Coronation Cup. He's a fabulous horse who has won 8 of his last 12 starts, but has had a serious leg injury and might well find 1m2f a bit sharp here, with most of his best form coming at 1m4f to 1m6f

SOLID STONE won back to back Group 3 contests in August/September 2021 before a 230-day break. He came off that break to win first time out in the Gr2 Huxley Stakes at Chester just over a year ago, but failed to kick on in three races since and may well need a run after another break. This trainer/jockey combo won this race last season, but stablemate Desert Crown must be the yard number 1 here, even if Solid Stone is the only former course winner on display.

Feature of the day is Instant Expert and it adds the following those details above...

Whilst that doesn't necessarily provide us with a winner, it does give me added confidence when I say that this shouldn't be Chichester's day. He has only won 2 of 19 on turf and both were on quicker ground than this, he probably wants a shorter trip too. Cash also has a fair swathe of red, but off just 1 or 2 races, I'll not write him off just yet.

With a small field over a non-sprint trip, I wouldn't expect any real draw bias here and whilst the stats might initially look like high draws have the best of it, the raw data tells another story in my eyes...

We're looking at six runners, so I'd take the data for stalls 6 & 7 as one entity with a win ratio of 17.39% and a place return of 30.43%, which would suggest that there's not a great deal of difference is the stats for stalls 1, 3, 4 and 6. In such cases, we have to treat the figures for stalls 2 and 5 to be anomalous, as there's no plausible reason for it being down to the draw. The race could however, hinge on how the race unfolds and based on the field's most recent outings...

...I'd say that Claymore is our likely leader with Solid Stone and Hukum the ones to chase him early. All eyes will be on Desert Crown, who will probably let that trio have a scrap early doors before attempting to put the race to bed later on. Cash and Chichester look like being waited with and the last two winners of this race both came from a hold-up position.

Summary

It's hard to see Desert Crown not winning here, based on his short career so far. The only potential problem is the fact that he hasn't raced for some considerable time. That said three of his rivals are also coming off a break. My pockets aren't deep enough, however to back him at best-price 4/7 to make it worth my while, so no win bet for me.

Of the rest, I think Hukum is the best horse, but I'm not keen on him here after a lengthy absence whilst quite seriously injured. The trip is probably too short for him and I think that 7/2 is far too skinny. I hope I'm wrong and that he goes well, because I do like him, but can't take him at those odds.

I've already ruled Chichester out, Solid Stone disappointed in his last three unplaced runs, so it's the front-running Claymore or hold-up type Cash from here. Claymore might well do too much up front in the early could end up feeling the effects of a ten-month break, but Cash has raced recently, is in good form and will be held-up like the last two winners. He's also likely to get towed into the race by Desert Crown, so I'm going Cash at 8/1 E/W plus the forecast with Desert Crown.

Racing Insights, Thursday 18/05/23

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Did you know that the Instant Expert tab is by far the most popular tab on the geegeez racecards?

That's because it has the ability to condense the entire form profile of every runner in the race into a single, easily digestible, view. The report covers the form in terms of wins (or places), runs, and win (or place) percentage for each of going, class, course, distance, and field size. It also compares today’s official rating with the horse’s last winning official rating. The display is colour coded: green for a higher percentage rate, amber for a middling percentage, and red for a low percentage. Horses with no form under a certain condition have grey figures.

IMPORTANT NOTE: Where a horse has no UK/Irish form – i.e. it is having its first run in Britain or Ireland under Rules – it will not show up on Instant Expert at all.

This GOLD feature is so important that we make freely available to ALL readers EVERY Thursday alongside our usual selection of FREE races which, for this Thursday are...

  • 1.30 Salisbury
  • 2.25 York
  • 4.35 Perth
  • 6.20 Newmarket
  • 6.55 Newmarket

And clearly the best of those is on the Knavesmire, so let's focus upon the 2.25 York, an 8-runner, Fillies And Mares Group 2 flat contest over a left-handed 1m2.3f on good ground...

As you'd expect from a race of this magnitude, the field have won plenty of races between them and both Aristia and Free Wind won last time out, the latter coming here looking for a fourth win on the bounce with only Rogue Millennium winless in five.

Sea Silk Road has been flagged as a fast finisher and there's no new headgear or equipment on show. Rogue Millennium last raced just 18 days ago, but all of her rivals are running for the first time in at least 215 days with Free Wind not having been seen for almost 11 months since winning the Lancashire Oaks. That was also off a lengthy break, meaning that this will be only her second run in over 600 days!

Toskana Belle has won three of her six starts in Europe prior to this UK debut, but her wins were over 8f, 9f and 11f, making her the only one without a win at 1m2f, whilst the two course winners, Aristia and State Occasion have both triumphed over course and distance in July 2021 and August 2022 respectively, the former in a Listed race.

All bar Aristia & Toskana Belle will carry 9st 2lbs here, making Free Wind some 6lbs to 12lbs 'well-in' on her rivals based on OR/handicap marks and with the Gosden/Dettori partnership behind her, she couldn't be in better hands as she seeks a hat-trick of Group 2 wins.

Instant Expert doesn't carry overseas form, so it doesn't show that Toskana Belle is 3 from 3 on good ground and has 2 wins & 2 further places at Class 1. She hasn't tackled this track or trip yet, but here's how her rivals stack up...

The huge swathes of green were to be expected, but let's have a quick look at those with less than ideal scores by bringing up the place stats...

Poptronic's best form has been on the Tapeta tracks at Newcastle & Wolverhampton, whilst Rogue MIllennium's two career wins (from seven starts) have been on quicker ground than this and as for State Occasion's record at Class 1, she was 4th of 10 in as Listed race at Dundalk last September and 8th of 13 in a Newmarket Group 3 a fortnight later and hasn't been seen since. She finished 211 in a trio of Class 2 races prior to those defeats and that's probably her level.

Our 100% placers Free Wind and Sea Silk Road are drawn in stalls 6 and 3 respectively here and the last five renewals of this race have been won by horses coming out of the first two stalls, but more generally here at York over this going/trip, there's not a huge draw bias...

...although there is a suggestion that stalls 7 & 8 might be the place to be, which would be good for the likes of Toskana Belle and Rogue Millennium if the race was run to suit them, of course. Those races aboive also don't have a huge pace bias either, but leaders have come out worse than any other running style...

...which might not be the best news for the likes of Aristia and Free Wind, as this group's last four outings suggest that this pair might be the ones having to set the tempo in what might be a falsely run race...

That said, the pace/draw heat map gives pretty much most running style/draw combos a chance of success, so it might just boil down to a class of the cream rising to the top.

Summary

Sometimes we have little pace, draw or heat map bias to work with and in those cases, I tend to revert to recent form via the formline on the card and also historical data via Instant Expert and having done so, I'm not surprised that Free Wind is the early 11/8 favourite. She's clearly the one to beat here and the question really is whether you think 11/8 offers any value at all. Personally, I thought she might have been 6/4 or 7/4 early doors, but I wouldn't be surprised to her price shorten. Make of that what you will.

LTO winner Aristia has won over track and trip before and I'd expect her and possibly Sea Silk Road to be the ones chasing the fav home, but you'd probably guess that from the fact they're next best in the market at 5/1 and 11/2. In fairness, the top 3 in the market do sometimes finish 1-2-3 and I'd not be hugely surprised if that happened here, but if you were looking for something a bit longer at an E/W price, you can get 8's about the French filly, Toskana Belle.

Racing Insights, Thursday 11/05/23

/in /by

Thursday's free feature, the Instant Expert racecard tab is one of Geegeez readers' most popular tools because it has the unique ability to condense the entire form profile of every runner in the race into a single, easily digestible, view covering the form in terms of wins (or places), runs, and win (or place) percentage for each of going, class, course, distance, and field size.

It also compares today’s official rating with the horse’s last winning official rating. The display is colour coded: green for a higher percentage rate, amber for a middling percentage, and red for a low percentage. Horses with no form under a certain condition have grey figures.

IMPORTANT NOTE: Where a horse has no UK/Irish form – i.e. it is having its first run in Britain or Ireland under Rules – it will not show up on Instant Expert at all.

We make this feature freely available to ALL readers EVERY Thursday for ALL races, including, naturally, our selection of 'free' races as follows...

  • 2.40 Chester
  • 5.05 Huntingdon
  • 5.48 Clonmel
  • 6.00 Chelmsford
  • 7.00 Chelmsford
  • 7.18 Clonmel

I want to tie the feature of the day into the free races here, so I'm going to look at the 6.00 Chelmsford. On the face of it, it's a poor looking 13-runner, Class 6, 4yo+ A/W handicap for Amateur jockeys over a left-handed 6f on standard polytrack...

So, we've no LTO winners and only Billian is any kind of form with a win and four places from his last five starts. Hannah's Return did win two starts ago and Forever Dreaming, Millicent and Master Sully do have a win in their recent form line.

Top weight Red Alert drops down from Class 5, as does Forever Dreaming. San Juan runs for Damien Wingrove for the first time leaving Mark Loughnane's yard, Miss Connaisuer makes a second run post-wind surgery and both Fristel and Billian are noted as fast finishers.

Red Alert and Monsieur Fantaisie are both former course and distance winners, whilst Forever Dreaming, Billian and Hannah's Return have also scored over today's trip elsewhere.

At 114 days off, Monsieur Fantaisie might be a bit rusty, but his yard have a good record with horses coming back from a break. Aside from San Juan's 97 day lay-off, the rest of the field have all raced in the past eight weeks.

The bottom three on the card all run from 1lb outside the handicap.

Instant Expert usually helps us pick winners from such mediocre cards, but even feature of the day is struggling with this bunch...

...although some of them have clearly done better than others, but wait! Watch what happens if we look at A/W place form...

...now we suddenly have something to work with. Firstly I need to de-clutter, so let's get rid of Fristel, Millicent, Master Sully, Shining Crystal and Miss Connaisseur, because they're all holding a full line of red and if you can't make the frame, you can't win! Now this looks a bit better...

There are obvious concerns over Red Alert & San Juan on standard going with the latter also faring poorly at this trip, so I think we'll remove them at this point too before I start to fragment the Instant Expert graphic as follows...

In fairness, I probably didn't need to do that for you, but it means that I'm now only going to consider Hannah's Return, Forever Dreaming, Billian and Monsieur Fantaisie, who'll be spread across the track at the start from stalls 1, 4, 8 & 13 (non-runner came from #13). I put them in draw order, as the draw is the next thing to consider to see if those drawn at either end have a greater or worse chance of winning...

The initial thought here is that low draws do considerably better than high draws, based on the angle of that line, but the reality is that low draws only have 5 more winners from 415 runs, so I'm not too concerned about the horse out in stall 13 just yet, but he'll certainly have to make up ground if there's a level break. That said, Monsieur Fantaisie has been sharlply away on his last two outings...

...which, as most people know, is the correct way to approach 6f here at Chelmsford...

This isn't great news for either Billian or Forever Dreaming, because a look at the bigger picture says they could well have 10 runners to try and pass late on...

Summary

So, from the above I'm taking Monsieur Fantaisie, top scorer on Instant Expert to beat Hannah's Return, who also scored well on IE. They're the pace in this race too and I'm hoping they're the first two home.

The early market would seem to agree, sadly, as Monsieur Fantaisie is the 7/2 favourite with Hannah's Return at 6/1 alongside Billian with Forever Dreaming fourth in the odds at 8/1. The latter makes most sense as an E/W bet, but Billian is in the better form and should make the frame.

 

Racing Insights, Thursday 04/05/23

/in /by

Thursday's free feature, the Instant Expert racecard tab is one of Geegeez readers' most popular tools because it has the unique ability to condense the entire form profile of every runner in the race into a single, easily digestible, view covering the form in terms of wins (or places), runs, and win (or place) percentage for each of going, class, course, distance, and field size.

It also compares today’s official rating with the horse’s last winning official rating. The display is colour coded: green for a higher percentage rate, amber for a middling percentage, and red for a low percentage. Horses with no form under a certain condition have grey figures.

IMPORTANT NOTE: Where a horse has no UK/Irish form – i.e. it is having its first run in Britain or Ireland under Rules – it will not show up on Instant Expert at all.

We make this feature freely available to ALL readers EVERY Thursday for ALL races, including, naturally, our selection of 'free' races as follows...

  • 4.30 Redcar
  • 4.40 Ayr
  • 5.45 Chelmsford
  • 5.55 Tipperary
  • 7.55 Tipperary

...which are fairly uninspiring featuring two Irish races and UK flat handicaps at Class 6 and Class 5 plus a UK Class 5 Novice A/W contest. That said, every race has a winner to be found and the best of the bunch looks like being the 4.40 Ayr, an 8-runner, Class 5, 4yo+ flat handicap over a left handed 7f on good to firm ground...

No LTO winners on display, but Classy Al was a runner-up and won two starts ago, Novak has been secind in each of his last two and Judgment Call, Lilikoi and Drakeholes do at least have a win on their five-race form line, whilst Rogue Force and Merricourt are each unplaced in their last seven outings.

Merricourt is also up in class here, which willmake life even harder, but both Classy Al and bottom weight Global Humor do at least have the respite of a drop in class. Classy Al is noted as a fast finisher and he's the only one without a run in the last seven weeks or so, as he returns from a seven month break.

Rogue Force will be hoping that a change of scenery inspires him into some form on his debut for Mike Smith and like all of his rivals, he has actually already won over a similar trip to this one. Half of the field (Judgment Call, Classy Al, Merricourt & Global Humor) are also course and distance winners.

Instant Expert doesn't add much meat to those bones above, but does point out that Merricourt, Novak and to some extent, Classy Al have toiled at Class 5, whilst Judgment Call has a poor win record here at Ayr. Elsewhere this trip hasn't tended to suit Novak, Merricourt or Global Humor, which is a shame for the latter, as he has reasonable stats across the board despite being an unreliable type...

Interestingly Global Humor is some 10lbs below his last win. Mind you, he has lost 19 in a row since scoring in September 2021, so he might not break that sequence here. As there's not much green above, let's have a look at who might be contenders for the frame via the place stats...

Again, Global Humor scores well, but his run of form is a real concern and it's Lilikoi who catches the eye here. He'll relish the quick ground and both class and trip are ideal for him. He's drawn low here in stall 2, with only the returning Classy Al inside him and the draw stats from past contests here say that whilst a high draw is preferable, your stall allocation shouldn't be the reason for a defeat...

And those two drawn lowest will probably just sit in and wait for a late run, if their last few outings are anything to go by...

...whilst it's highly likely that Novak will make a run for the line from the word go. A further look back at those races above for the draw stats says that leaders make the frame more often than any other running style but are prone to getting caught leading to a dismal win record...

Summary

It's not the best races I've ever looked at, it's not even the best race I've looked at this week and I've no real standout pick as my winner and as such won't be backing any to win.

I might however have a small E/W play on Lilikoi, if I can get a decent price about, but as of 2.50pm on Wednesday (early dart today, I've to get to a function!) there were no odds available; I'll update later tonight.

Racing Insights, Thursday 27/04/23

/in /by

Thursday's free feature, the Instant Expert racecard tab is one of Geegeez readers' most popular tools because it has the unique ability to condense the entire form profile of every runner in the race into a single, easily digestible, view covering the form in terms of wins (or places), runs, and win (or place) percentage for each of going, class, course, distance, and field size.

It also compares today’s official rating with the horse’s last winning official rating. The display is colour coded: green for a higher percentage rate, amber for a middling percentage, and red for a low percentage. Horses with no form under a certain condition have grey figures.

IMPORTANT NOTE: Where a horse has no UK/Irish form – i.e. it is having its first run in Britain or Ireland under Rules – it will not show up on Instant Expert at all.

We make this feature freely available to ALL readers EVERY Thursday for ALL races, including, naturally, our selection of 'free' races as follows...

  • 2.10 Warwick
  • 4.25 Warwick
  • 5.00 Warwick
  • 5.30 Warwick
  • 6.35 Punchestown
  • 7.35 Taunton

And with an 80% chance of me steering this column towards Warwick, the second of the four there appeals most to me. It's a stayers' contest and the highest rated of the four, so let's look in at the 4.25 Warwick, a 10-runner, Class 3, 4yo+ handicap hurdle taking in twelve flights of hurdles over 3m1f on good to soft ground...

Martha Brae is our sole LTO winner, scoring five weeks ago after a sequence of three runner-up finishes. Elsewhere the only LTO placer was Jubilee Express, seciond best in each of his last two, but did win three starts ago. Captain Morgs won two starts ago, Docpickedme is two from three and Regarding Ruth, Midnightreflection and Butler's Brief also all scored three races ago.

Conversely Gentleman At Arms, Bothwell Bridge and Ask A Honey Bee are winless in seven, six and six races respectively with Bothwell Bridge failing to complete four of his last six and Ask A Honey Bee having three incomplete runs from six.

Only three (Gentleman At Arms, Bothwell Bridge and Butler's Brief) ran at this Class 3 level last time out, as both Martha Brae and Jubilee Express are stepping up from Class 4. Docpickedme, Ask A Honey Bee and Midnightreflection all drop down from Class 2, whilst top-weight Captain Morgs and Regarding Ruth were both in Class 1 handicap action.

After finishing as a runner-up on handicap debut a month ago, Jubilee Express now has a second crack at it and he's one of eight runners to have had an outing in the last eight weeks, but Ask A Honey Bee and Butler's Brief are returning from breaks of five and six months respectively.

We've no former course and distance winners here, but Bothwell Bridge (2m3f hrd), Regarding Ruth (2m5f hrd) and Butler's Brief (2m5f hrd) have at least won on this track before and Docpickedme, Bothwell Bridge, Martha Brae, Regarding Ruth & Midnightreflection have all scored over a similar trip to this one.

For more stats, we can turn to Instant Expert to see that half of this field have won an NH race on good to soft ground and that seven of them have at least one win at Class 3. A deeper dive would also tell you that Captain Morgs is 2 from 5 at Class 2 and that the rest of the field are a combined 0 from 26 at that level...

That's a bit of a mixed bag and Gentelman At Arms looks weak off an admittedly small number of runs. None of them really stand out right now and maybe Jubilee Express' lack of relevant runs and therefore lack of defeats might actually be a positive, but let's look at place form to see if there are any pointers there...

Now, it's Bothwell bridge who looks weak and Jubilee Express' sole relevant outing saw him make the frame. Midnightreflection has good place stats and at just 2lbs higher than his last win and stalking at the foot of the weights, might well be one to consider from an E/W perspective.

Pace/tactics haven't had that much bearing on horses making the frame here in similar past races, but those held up for a late run have often struggled to win. They have made the frame often enough, but wins have been harder to come by from off the pace...

...which probably isn't great news for Ask A Honey Bee based on recent showings...

..and I think that if push came to shove, I'd probably want to be on one that was up with the pace out of trouble in a race featuring so many runners who have failed to see races out.

Summary

Based upon everything I've written above and the fact that I want to be on a runner that's up with the pace out of trouble, the obvious pair are Docpickedme and Jubilee Express. Now, Jubilee Express is the current (5.45pm) 11/4 favourite and I think that's a bit skinny for my liking, so I'm going to suggest a small E/W play on Docpickedme at 12/1 with Hills (3places, but 10/1 at Sky if you want the security of a fourth place). I also thought that, whilst not challenging for the win,  Midnightreflection wouldn't be a terrible E/W or place bet either and he's available at 18's (or 16/1 with 4 places).

 

Racing Insights, Thursday 20/04/23

/in /by

Did you know that the Instant Expert tab is by far the most popular tab on the geegeez racecards?

That's because it has the ability to condense the entire form profile of every runner in the race into a single, easily digestible, view. The report covers the form in terms of wins (or places), runs, and win (or place) percentage for each of going, class, course, distance, and field size. It also compares today’s official rating with the horse’s last winning official rating. The display is colour coded: green for a higher percentage rate, amber for a middling percentage, and red for a low percentage. Horses with no form under a certain condition have grey figures.

IMPORTANT NOTE: Where a horse has no UK/Irish form – i.e. it is having its first run in Britain or Ireland under Rules – it will not show up on Instant Expert at all.

This GOLD feature is so important that we make freely available to ALL readers EVERY Thursday alongside our usual selection of FREE races which, for this Thursday are...

  • 3.35 Newmarket
  • 4.25 Cheltenham
  • 4.30 Ripon
  • 4.35 Tramore
  • 5.05 Ripon

And it's back to Jumps HQ for another chase for this column, but this time the 4.25 Cheltenham is a 6-runner, Class 3, 5yo+ Mares/ handicap chase, taking in 13 fences over a left-handed 2m½f on good ground...

Hawthorn Cottage was the only one of the six to taste victory last time out and she's two from five. Pink Legend has a win and a place from her last two, Doyannie has a win and two places from her last three, but Fortunes Melody and Lost Connections are winless in six and seven races respectively. The former, however, is a regular placer but the latter is a seven-race maiden, who now runs from 19lbs out of the handicap. Doyannie runs from 12lbs out of the handicap and I'd say that rules both of them out of this one.

Of the remaining four, none raced at this grade last time out, as Fortunes Melody and Hawthorn Cottage step up a level from Class 4, whilst Royale Margaux was fourth of nine at Class 2 and Pink Legend was a placer in a Grade 2, having previously won a Listed event. All bar Royale Margaux have won in the UK at this type of trip, whilst both Pink Legend and Hawthorn Cottage have already won here at Cheltenham (2m4½f chase and 2m1f bumper respectively).

All four have been seen inside the last five weeks and there's nothing new to report about them re: headgear or yard changes etc, but I can add that Instant Expert says that four of the field have a good ground UK chase win, but only one has won at Class 3...

...but that doesn't count Pink Legend's three Class 1 wins or the fact that both her and Fortunes melody have also won at Class 2. Royale Margaux is 0 from 3 here in the UK, but did win 7 of 13 in France including a Listed chase and hurdles wins at Listed & Grade 1!

That would suggest she's definitely got something about her, but it just hasn't quite worked out yet for her since leaving David Cottin's yard in France for Tom Symonds' Herefordshire base. Her pace profile (below) also raises the possibility that the yard haven't really decided on what tactics would work best for her either...

This indecisiveness, allied to the fact that front-runners have excelled in similar past races...

...could make this another frustrating afternoon for her and her team, as Pink Legend, Fortunes Melody and Hawthorn Cottage look set to fight it out.

Summary

If we are to focus on those three pace-setters (Pink Legend, Fortunes Melody and Hawthorn Cottage), this is probably Pink Legend's race to win/lose. Down two classes from a solid Grade 2 third place at last month's Festival, the drop in trip will help, as will the non-appearance of a couple of quality Irish mares.

I'm not a big fan of backing short-priced favourites and 6/4 looks a bit skinny, but she should be winning this relatively easily. As for the runner-up or forecast horses, I'd say that Fortunes Melody was better treated at the weights than Hawthorn Cottage, who'd probably want some rain to come anyway.

So, it's the 6/4 Pink Legend to beat the 5/1 Fortunes Melody for me, based on the stats above, but if Royale Margaux decides to go with the pace, she could do very well too.

Racing Insights, Thursday 13/04/23

/in /by

Thursday's free feature, the Instant Expert racecard tab is one of Geegeez readers' most popular tools because it has the unique ability to condense the entire form profile of every runner in the race into a single, easily digestible, view covering the form in terms of wins (or places), runs, and win (or place) percentage for each of going, class, course, distance, and field size.

It also compares today’s official rating with the horse’s last winning official rating. The display is colour coded: green for a higher percentage rate, amber for a middling percentage, and red for a low percentage. Horses with no form under a certain condition have grey figures.

IMPORTANT NOTE: Where a horse has no UK/Irish form – i.e. it is having its first run in Britain or Ireland under Rules – it will not show up on Instant Expert at all.

We make this feature freely available to ALL readers EVERY Thursday for ALL races, including, naturally, our selection of 'free' races as follows...

  • 2.45 Newcastle
  • 3.30 Aintree
  • 5.30 Chelmsford
  • 8.30 Chelmsford

The best of those races is undoubtedly up here in the North West, where it's almost inconceivable that the 1/7 priced Constitution Hill would get beat, after winning all five of his Grade 1 starts to date with an average winning margin of over 14 lengths, but with all his rivals being priced up at 14/1 or longer, we could pick ourselves up a nice E/W bet or forecast from the 3.30 Aintree, a 6-runner, Grade 1, 4yo+ hurdle race over a left-handed 2m4f (+62 yds rail movement)...

CONSTITUTION HILL is 5 from 5 in Grade 1 contests without really breaking sweat. Yes, he's up in trip by the best part of 3 fulrongs, but the manner of his last two victories suggests another easy win.

I LIKE TO MOVE IT has won a Class 1 handicap and a Grade 2 contest this season, but was only 6th of 7 and 34 lengths behind Constitution Hill at Cheltenham last time out with the re-opposing Zanahiyr three places and 21 lengths ahead of him. he wouldn't be a contender for the top 2 on that run, but he has won here in the past, landing a bumper on debut back in November 2020.

SCEAU ROYAL wears cheekpieces for the first time today after going down by just a length and a half in a grade 2 event at Fontwell last time out. he was third here in 2022's Melling Chase and has won three grade 2 hurdles, but hasn't proven himself in seven efforts at this level.

SHARJAH might not be the horse he was, but he's won seven Grade 1 hurdle races in an illustrious career and was beaten by less than 3 lengths (4th of 24) in the County Hurdle at Cheltenham. You know he'll run his race, virtually all of his career has been over a two mile trip.

ZANAHIYR was running a big race in this contest a year ago when falling at the last under pressure from the eventual winner Epatante who re-opposes here. Another similar effort puts him right in the mix for a place, especially after getting within 13 lengths of Constitution Hill at Cheltenham last time out. Not many have got that close and the trip shouldn't be an issue.

EPATANTE is the only mare in the race and gets a useful 7lb concession. She is, of course a course and distance winner, courtesy of winning this very race last year. She beat all bar stablemate Constitution Hill in both the Fighting Fifth and Christmas Hurdle last winter before a routine win in a Doncaster Grade 2 in late January. She wasn't at her best at the Cheltenham festival, but reunited with her stablemate here could see another Nicky Henderson big-race 1-2.

At this point, I've got the battle for silver as a 2-horse contest between Zanahiyr and Epatante, but let's check collateral form via Instant Expert...

...which pretty much speaks for itself and is a tick for the mare Epatante, who also comes out on top on place form...

Based on recent pace profiles, I wouldn't be surprised if the favourite was allowed to set the tempo of the contest in afield lacking an out and out front runner...

...and I suppose the key here might be to see if you could stop him from running too far clear. The chances are that he'll be allowed to dominate, giving us a 5-runner contest for the £53k runner-up prize. As it happens, similar small field races here have been kind to those 'chasing' the leader(s)...

...although I suspect the chase will be at a distance here. Hold-up horses have done well enough too and there's not really much to choose between the bottom four on the pace graphic. I Like To Move It might well be the one who tries to go with the fav, but he weakened late on during his only other effort at this trip and going off too quickly would end his chances here.

Summary

Barring a disaster, Constitution Hill should be cantering home well ahead of the field. Is 1/7 value or not? I'll let you decide for yourselves, but at the stakes I play at, it's not worth bothering. The race for second, however, could be fascinating between Zanahiyr and Epatante with the latter hopefully prevailing. She's (LTO aside) in good nick, seems to run well whenever her stablemate  Constitution Hill is around and is proven at track/trip. Both contenders are priced at 14/1, but Epatante shades it for me.

My 1-2-3 would be Constitution Hill/Epatante/Zanahiyr with me going E/W on the mare and doing the forecast.

Racing Insights, Thursday 06/04/23

/in /by

Thursday's free feature, the Instant Expert racecard tab is one of Geegeez readers' most popular tools because it has the unique ability to condense the entire form profile of every runner in the race into a single, easily digestible, view covering the form in terms of wins (or places), runs, and win (or place) percentage for each of going, class, course, distance, and field size.

It also compares today’s official rating with the horse’s last winning official rating. The display is colour coded: green for a higher percentage rate, amber for a middling percentage, and red for a low percentage. Horses with no form under a certain condition have grey figures.

IMPORTANT NOTE: Where a horse has no UK/Irish form – i.e. it is having its first run in Britain or Ireland under Rules – it will not show up on Instant Expert at all.

We make this feature freely available to ALL readers EVERY Thursday for ALL races, including, naturally, our selection of 'free' races as follows...

  • 1.20 Bellewstown
  • 2.25 Hereford
  • 2.30 Bellewstown
  • 4.45 Hereford
  • 7.15 Clonmel

Unfortunately for me, that list is 60% Irish, leaving me with just the two Hereford races to consider and neither of those float my boat, as one's a maiden hurdle and the other a novice handicap, so I'll pass on both of those and I'll be back tomorrow!

Only joking, of course. As a man far more talented than I, once said "The Show Must Go On!" and with that in mind, I'm going to find another race to look at. I am, of course, self-impeded by my reluctance to play the Irish game and I don't really do the Flat in April, whilst the 'best' UK races on Thursday are at Class 4. So, a non-Flat, non-novice/maiden, non-Irish, Class 4 race is where we'll head and that takes us to the 6.30 Southwell, a 12-runner, Class 4, 4yo+ A/W handicap over a left-handed mile on standard tapeta...

None of these won last time out, but Athmad was second attempting to complete a hat-trick, whilst Dubai Jeanius was also a runner-up after winning all five starts this year. Francesi and Kaaranah have been runing consistently well without quite winning.

Intervention is noted as a fast finisher here and Kingmania makes a debut for James Ferguson after leaving Chris Wall's yard. She now wears a hood for the first time, as does Kaaranah, who like Candy Warhol and Vaccine, is stepping up a class here, whilst My Silent Song is down two classes.

Our sole class dropper might, however, need the run after a break of 169 days, but he's not the only one who might be a bit race-rusty as Francesi, The Mouse King, Kingmania and Kaaranah have all been tucked away for five months or more, whereas the remaining seven have all raced in the last 7 to 37 days.

Chief's Will and Athmad are previous course and distance winners, whilst Dubai Jeanius is 4 from 4 over 1m3f/1m4f here. Intervention has won here over 6f and 7f with The Mouse King a Southwell winner at 7f on his only previous visit four starts ago (August '22). Elsewhere Francesi, Plastic Paddy, My Silent Song and Kaaranah have all won at a similar trip to this one.

Feature of the day, Instant Expert, can verify those course/distance stats and also tell us that seven of this field share twenty-three previous A/W wins on standard going, but only two of them have won at Class 4. We also see that all seven A/W winners are running off higher marks than their last win, carrying 3lbs to 8lbs more here...

The in-form pair of  Dubai Jeanius and Athmad are the two that initially catch my eye from a positive point of view, whilst my concerns are starting to build about Plastic Paddy (class) and Intervention (going/class), whilst Chief's Will hasn't set the world alight at going/distance either. It's going to be hard for me to suggest any of that trio might win this from those stats, but the place stats might suggest they could make the frame?

Again Dubai Jeanius looks strong, but Athmad's numbers haven't really improved much, suggesting he's a win or bust type, perhaps. Plastic Paddy's line looks better, but still worse than most, whilst Candy Warhol looks like he'd be better off elsewhere, although his Flat record is just as uninspiring.

The draw here at Southwell on the Tapeta suggests that those drawn highest might have a bit of extra work to do to get round and win...

...which would put Kingmania, Candy Warhol and My Silent Song in a bit of trouble, but much would depend on how they approached the race from widest out. If they run like they have in their last few outings, I'd expect Candy Warhol to set off pretty quickly with Kingmania likely to settle in at the back of the pack with the in-form Dubai Jeanius...

Chief's Will looks like being our pacesetter with a clump of five or six tracking him and if we go back to those 40-odd races above that we drew the draw data from, we're informed that anything bar a hold-up position is OK here...

...which isn't the best news for Plastic Paddy, Athmad, Dubai Jeanius or Kingmania, which presents me with a dilemma.

Summary

I think Dubai Jeanius is the best horse in the race, but having to pass most of the field later in the contest has proven difficult here at Southwell and that throws a spanner in the works for me. He's 11/2 joint second fav and that's not long enough for an E/W bet and I'm unsure he can get round the field, so I'll have to look elsewhere.

Next on my list is Athmad, who'd be a good pick for a place normally, but he's drawn high enough (almost too high in #9) and is another hold-up type and like the runner above, 5/1 isn't E/W territory for me.

Francesi, however, was in solid form prior to a five month break, is drawn low and will race prominently. His place stats at going/class/distance put him right in the mix and at 6/1, he's probably the one I'd back to win and if I wanted a pair of small speculative E/W punts, then I'd be looking at the likes of Chief's Will & Intervention at 11's and 14's respectively, especially if you can get four places, as they're still going to have to compete with Dubai Jeanius and Athmad for the places.

Spring Mile / Lincoln Video Preview

/in , /by

To mark the return of flat turf racing to Britain, I've recorded some thoughts on the two big field mile handicaps being run at Doncaster tomorrow. The Spring Mile and the Lincoln are both Class 2 straight mile handicaps and both have 22 runners as I write. The ground is currently soft, heavy in places, with the sky taps still turned on - so heavy might be what we get.

With all that in mind, I share my thoughts in the video below. In it, I share:

- Common features between the races
- Draw / run style biases
- Instant Expert overviews
- Some picks!

[*As ever, if I speak too slowly for you, use the little cog icon bottom right on the video to choose a faster playback speed]

Good luck!

Matt

 

Racing Insights, Thursday 30/03/23

/in /by

Thursday's free feature, the Instant Expert racecard tab is one of Geegeez readers' most popular tools because it has the unique ability to condense the entire form profile of every runner in the race into a single, easily digestible, view covering the form in terms of wins (or places), runs, and win (or place) percentage for each of going, class, course, distance, and field size.

It also compares today’s official rating with the horse’s last winning official rating. The display is colour coded: green for a higher percentage rate, amber for a middling percentage, and red for a low percentage. Horses with no form under a certain condition have grey figures.

IMPORTANT NOTE: Where a horse has no UK/Irish form – i.e. it is having its first run in Britain or Ireland under Rules – it will not show up on Instant Expert at all.

We make this feature freely available to ALL readers EVERY Thursday for ALL races, including, naturally, our selection of 'free' races as follows...

  • 2.45 Hexham
  • 2.50 Limerick
  • 3.00 Warwick
  • 4.17 Naas
  • 7.00 Wolverhampton

...and the highest rated of the three UK free races is the 2.45 Hexham, a 5-runner, Class 4, 4yo+ handicap hurdle over a left-handed two miles on heavy ground...

DELUXE RANGE was last seen three months ago finishing out of the places a class higher than this and runs for the first time since having wind surgery. Jockey and yard work well together (see below). Sadly the horse has failed to win any of its last thirteen and would probably prefer a longer trip.

BEAT BOX was a Class 5 winner at this trip three starts ago after having a wind op and was then second when stepped up two classes next time out, but was well beaten at Class 5 last time around and will need to improve back up in class.

HORN CAPE comes from a yard in decent form that has done well here at this venue and has found a few winners for today's jockey. This 6yr old was a nine-length winner over just half a furlong further last time out, getting off the mark in style but is now up in class and carries a 7lb penalty for the win.

MISS LAMB also won last time out (over course and distance) for a third win in a seven-race career that has seen this race's only mare finish outside the first three home just once (3 wins) and will seek to improve her yard's already excellent record at this venue off what looks a fairly lenient mark for her handicap debut.

I DOUBT THAT has failed to make the frame in seven races on turf (4 x flat & 3 x hurdles), but finished 1712 in four A/W starts, winning at 1m4f and 2m, along with a 2m runner-up spot two starts ago. Second to last of eleven over hurdles (74 lengths) last time out, though. hard to fancy on handicap debut, but does receive 20, 14, 13 and 9 pounds weight from his four opponents.

At this stage, it looks to me like Horn Cape and Miss Lamb would be the two to focus on and we're probably not getting any decent odds on either of them winning! Instant Expert favours the mare here on win stats...

...with Beat Box a regular placer over today's trip...

Neither Beat Box nor Horn Cape have fared well at Class 4, but Miss Lamb certainly looks the one to beat here. Based on recent outings, she's likely to be prominent early on and I suspect Deluxe range might well keep her company, whilst Beat Box is the probable early back marker...

If we then look at how similar races here at Hexham have gone...

...then that's not great news for Beat Box, assuming we have a truly run race and all horses behave as they have previously.

Summary

Short and hopefully sweet today, with the mare Miss Lamb being the one to beat for me at 13/8 (Hills was the only price available at 4.15pm). She ticks boxes in every bit of analysis we've done and should take this in her stride off a mark of 110. Horn Cape is probably the best of the rest, but up in class and weight here and doesn't really appeal at 6/4. That's probably the 1-2, but the 15/2 Beat Box might make a better E/W bet, based on his results at this trip and he doesn't seem to mind heavy ground.

 

Racing Insights, Thursday 23/03/23

/in /by

Thursday's free feature, the Instant Expert racecard tab is one of Geegeez readers' most popular tools because it has the unique ability to condense the entire form profile of every runner in the race into a single, easily digestible, view covering the form in terms of wins (or places), runs, and win (or place) percentage for each of going, class, course, distance, and field size.

It also compares today’s official rating with the horse’s last winning official rating. The display is colour coded: green for a higher percentage rate, amber for a middling percentage, and red for a low percentage. Horses with no form under a certain condition have grey figures.

IMPORTANT NOTE: Where a horse has no UK/Irish form – i.e. it is having its first run in Britain or Ireland under Rules – it will not show up on Instant Expert at all.

We make this feature freely available to ALL readers EVERY Thursday for ALL races, including, naturally, our selection of 'free' races as follows...

  • 2.05 Cork
  • 2.35 Chepstow
  • 3.50 Cork
  • 5.20 Ludlow

The first of the two UK races above is a Novice event, so I'm going to have a look at the 5.20 Ludlow, a 7-runner, Class 4, 4yo+ handicap hurdle taking in 11 flights over a right-handed 2m5½f on good to soft ground, that is soft in places with showers forecast...

My initial thoughts were that Your Band might be out of his depth, but that the other half dozen might well only be separated by a few points in the market, giving us a nice competitive contest.

Sole mare Malaita is the only LTO winner in the field, but she's up a class here, as is Duke of Moravia, who made the frame last time and now makes a second handicap appearance. It's also Amrons Sage's second crack at a handicap, whilst Spring Meadow is on handicap debut.

Top-weight Whatsupwithyou was a runner-up less than three weeks ago and now drops in class, whilst Spring Meadow and No No Tango also made the frame last time. Duke of Moravia has been away from the track the longest at almost twelve weeks, but that's no real cause for concern.

The mare Malaita is the only former course winner, having landed a bumper in May 2021 on her second career start, whilst Whatsupwithyou's win at Ascot on debut in December 2019 is the only win at this trip achieved by the entire field. Feature of the day Instant Expert also tells us that just two of the seven have won on good to soft or soft ground so far and that just three of them are Class 4 winners...

Spring Meadow looks strongest here in a weak set of results, but we'll probably learn more from place form...

My main concerns here are Whatsupwithyou on the softer ground, yet closer analysis is contradictory. He's made the frame in four of vive on good ground, so you'd say he wants it quicker than this, but his win on debut was over this trip on heavy ground. Elsewhere, Malaita might struggle with the quality of the race, as her best form (inc that LTO win) has been at Class 5, but she was a runner-up at Hereford thirteen months ago off just one pound lower than today.

She won from the front last time out and is likely to be up with the pace again here, if her last four outings are anything to go by (see below), but this might be tricky, now she's up in trip by 3.5 furlongs. Of the others, No No Tango looks the likeliest to be the early back-marker...

...and back-markers have fared worst in similar past races, according to our pace analyser...

...which looks weighted towards leaders.

Summary

Overall, the two I like(d) best are/were Whatsupwithyou and No No Tango, but neither come without risks. The former hasn't gone well on good to soft/soft ground, but has won on heavy. He's got a good pace profile for this contest, has won at this trip, is in decent form and drops in class. The latter is a regular placer in good nick, but might well be left with too much to do.

Aside from this two, Spring Meadow also made some appeal with two wins and a place from his last four and a prominent racing style, but his jumping hasn't been great and he's hardly thrown in off a mark of 188 for his handicap debut, so I'll stick with my initial pair and side with the 9/2 Whatsupwithyou to edge out the equally-priced No No Tango.