Tag Archive for: The Shortlist

Racing Insights, Tuesday 21/05/24

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The Shortlist is Tuesday's free Geegeez GOLD feature and it's a simple (usually brief) report highlighting those horses with a largely ‘green’ profile in the Instant Expert Report each day and it covers win or place stats for both the current and the next day's racing.

GREEN is good (33% or better win rate) – worth 3 points
AMBER is quite good (16-32% win rate) – worth 1 point
RED is not so good (0-15% win rate) – worth -1 points
GREY means there is no available data for that factor - worth 0 points

The final column, ‘Score’, is the sum of the previous five ‘colour’ columns, with 15 being an all green profile, and 9 being the lowest score appearing on this report.

HINT: The best bets are not necessarily the highest scores. Rather, they are often the biggest difference between a Shortlist horse and the ‘best of the rest’ in that race.

N.B. Shortlist selections are unlikely to make a profit, at SP at least, to blind backing. Our recommendation has always been that The Shortlist should be a starting point rather than an end in itself. That said, it continues to highlight horses whose chance is better than recent form and its odds might imply.

[Please refer to our User Guide for further information] and here is Tuesday's Shortlist...

...with Mole Court of the most obvious interest. As ever, the daily feature is complemented by a selection of fully functional racecards opened up to all readers and for this Tuesday they cover the following...

  • 2.58 Punchestown
  • 3.10 Nottingham
  • 7.40 Huntingdon
  • 7.58 Hexham
  • 8.20 Cork
  • 8.40 Huntingdon

So I suppose it makes sense to have a look at Mole Court and Ballintubber Boy from The Shortlist, as they run in one of our 'free' races, the 7.40 Huntingdon, an 8-runner (fingers crossed!), Class 3, 4yo+ handicap hurdle over a right-handed 3m 1f 10y on good ground...

My initial thoughts here are that we're possibly looking at a three-horse race between (in card order) featured runner Mole Court, Planet Legend and Ubetya, but only Mole Court won last time out and he has actually won five of his last six outings.

None of the other five won last time out either; Planet Legend was a runner-up beaten by just a neck at Ludlow (with Ubetya six lengths and two places further back), but the rest of the field failed to make the frame with both Edison Kent and Petrastar not completing their races. All runners have won at least one of their last seven outings, though.

Only Petrastar ran at this grade last time out with all of his rivals here bar Back On the Lash and Edison Kent (who both drop down from Class 2) stepping up a class today. Unusually, though, we've no yard or handicap debutants, nor any new headgear being worn or any return from wind surgery/gelding and most of the field ran just 25-27 days ago.

Back On The Lash has had almost eight weeks off, but that shouldn't be an issue here, but Edison Kent hasn't raced for almost four months and hasn't completed a race for over five months, whilst Ballintubber Boy's last race was a week shy of six months ago.

Ballintubber Boy is, however, the only runner in this field to have won over course and distance, which he achieved two starts/seven months ago. Midnight Reflection and featured runner Mole Court are the other two runners to have won at a similar trip, whilst only Back On The Lash, Edison Kent and Ubetya are yet to win here at Huntingdon. Mind you, only the 0 from 3 Edison Kent of that trio has actually raced here...

My immediate takeaways from Instant Expert are that Midnight Reflection's better efforts have come over shorter trips than this and that Mole Court's +24lbs from his last win can't be right, so I'll check.

Ah, so his mark today of 116 is technically 24lbs higher than his last hurdles win fifteen months ago, but has since won five of six over fences off marks of up to 120 last time out, so he's actually 4lbs lower than his last win, whereas Petrastar runs off 108 here, the same as his chasing mark and is now 14lbs below his last hurdles win, but that was in August 2020 and his hurdle form since then reads 776P2367 (mainly in 7-runner races, too), so it's unsurprising to see his mark falling.

Planet Legend has the showing on place stats, whilst Ubetya is unexposed under these conditions. Ballintubber Boy's numbers are a little skewed by his successes in the earlier part of the two-year period, whilst Edison Kent would probably want a bit more cut in the ground.

There doesn't appear to be much of a pace bias here at Huntingdon when you get beyond three miles...

...but there has been a slight advantage the further forward you have raced, which probably partially explains why Ballintubber Boy and Mole Court have been successful here in the past, if there recent efforts are anything to go by...

Summary

From the outset, I thought that featured runner Mole Court, Planet Legend and Ubetya were the best runners in the race and there's not been any evidence shown above to sway me from that thought. There's not a huge pace bias, but those running furthest forward have fared better and my three are expected to race in that same Mole Court, Planet Legend and Ubetya order, so that's how I'll arrange my 1-2-3 today.

The early (4pm Monday) Bet365 market agrees with my 1-2 and has Mole Court and Planet Legend at 9/4 and 3/1 respectively, but they go 10's about Ubetya and that looks like a decent E/W offer to me.

 

Racing Insights, Tuesday 14/05/24

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The Shortlist is Tuesday's free Geegeez GOLD feature and it's a simple (usually brief) report highlighting those horses with a largely ‘green’ profile in the Instant Expert Report each day and it covers win or place stats for both the current and the next day's racing.

GREEN is good (33% or better win rate) – worth 3 points
AMBER is quite good (16-32% win rate) – worth 1 point
RED is not so good (0-15% win rate) – worth -1 points
GREY means there is no available data for that factor - worth 0 points

The final column, ‘Score’, is the sum of the previous five ‘colour’ columns, with 15 being an all green profile, and 9 being the lowest score appearing on this report.

HINT: The best bets are not necessarily the highest scores. Rather, they are often the biggest difference between a Shortlist horse and the ‘best of the rest’ in that race.

N.B. Shortlist selections are unlikely to make a profit, at SP at least, to blind backing. Our recommendation has always been that The Shortlist should be a starting point rather than an end in itself. That said, it continues to highlight horses whose chance is better than recent form and its odds might imply.

[Please refer to our User Guide for further information]

Here are my qualifiers on Tuesday's Shortlist...

As ever, the daily feature is complemented by a selection of fully functional racecards opened up to all readers and for Tuesday they cover...

  • 5.05 Southwell
  • 7.50 Killarney
  • 8.00 Ayr
  • 9.00 Ayr

The above six UK races contain a trio of Class 4 contests, which aside from the Class 3 7.30 Ayr, is as good as it gets in the UK on Tuesday, so I'm taking the most valuable of the three, the 8.00 Ayr for today's column. It's a 9-runner, Class 4, 4yo+ flat handicap over a left-handed 7f on good to firm ground with the following line-up...

Bowman won last time out, whilst Kelpie Grey comes here on a hat-trick after winning three of his last four. Archduke Ferdinand was a recent runner-up but the other half dozen all failed to make the frame whilst Orbaan, Prairie Falcon and Bowood are all winless in five or more starts : 17, 9 and 13 to be precise with Bowood yet to win any race.

His cause is unlikely to be helped by stepping up a level here, as do Ahamoment and the fast-finishing Bowman. Yaaser is also marked as a fast-finisher, form horse Kelpie Grey is up two classes here and out of sorts Prairie Falcon is now blinkered for the first time.

Bowood might also need a run after a 99-day absence, whilst Yaaser and Judgment Call now both run for the first time since October. Bowood is the only maiden in the race and all of his eight rivals have already won over this trip before now. Prairie Falcon has also won here at Ayr, but over 6f, whilst Kelpie Grey, Judgment Call, Yaaser and Ahamoment have all won over course and distance...

As is often the case with INSTANT EXPERT, if there's no standout candidate on the win data it can still help you highlight those who might struggle under the prevalent conditions and here I have doubts about the win prospects of Yaaser (class), Judgment Call (track) and both Orbaan & Archduke Ferdinand (trip). Most of those with a relatively recent win are rated 5 to 8lbs more than their last win, but Orbaan's mark has plummeted during his poor run of rom and I'm not convinced it has bottomed out.

A poor win return on Instant Expert doesn't necessarily mean the horse has consistently run poorly, though, he could have been unlucky or had ran well, but just not quite well enough and that's why we also have the place data from the same races...

The old adage says that you have to be in it to win it and if you're not making the frame, you're not going on to win, so I need to start whittling some of these out of contention. Field size doesn't really worry me too much, but I do like runners to have green for at least two of going, class, track and trip, so from here Kelpie grey, Yaaser, Prairie Falcon and Ahamoment are my take-aways.

I don't think there's a huge draw bias at play here at Ayr over 7f  to a mile, even if those drawn more centrally haven't quite achieved the par number of wins expected...

...the fact that they've made the frame more often than runners either side suggests they've ran just as well if not better overall, so I'm not reading too much into the raw data above just now. Pace, however, is a different kettle of fish. Those keen to get on with things are rewarded here...

...with leaders faring just marginally better than those chasing prominently. And if we then look at how this field have approached their most recent outings...

...then first four on that list are probably the ones best suited to Ayr and if Kelpie Grey does take it on early from stall 2, then the pace/draw heat map says he has a great chance of completing a hat-trick...

Summary

It's Kelpie Grey for me (and probably many others!), he's in form, scored as well as any of the others on Instant Expert, should be suited by the pace of the race and has the ideal pace/draw make-up for this type of race.

After him, you can make cases for a few to chase him home, but not with great conviction if truth be told, which does strengthen my thought about him winning again.

I did like Yaaser until I saw he was a hold-up type, but there aren't many standing out for me. Perhaps Ahamoment might be the E/W play here, should odds permit? He also scored well enough on IE across the board and led last time out.

Quick odds check at 4.35pm Monday showed Kelpie Grey at a best of 5/2 (fav) with Bet365 with Ahamoment a generally available 12/1. he was well beaten by Kelpie Grey last time out, but does have three wins (inc one at CD) and a place from his last seven and another placed finish might not be too outrageous.

 

Racing Insights, Tuesday 07/05/24

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The Shortlist is Tuesday's free Geegeez GOLD feature and it's a simple (usually brief) report highlighting those horses with a largely ‘green’ profile in the Instant Expert Report each day and it covers win or place stats for both the current and the next day's racing.

GREEN is good (33% or better win rate) – worth 3 points
AMBER is quite good (16-32% win rate) – worth 1 point
RED is not so good (0-15% win rate) – worth -1 points
GREY means there is no available data for that factor - worth 0 points

The final column, ‘Score’, is the sum of the previous five ‘colour’ columns, with 15 being an all green profile, and 9 being the lowest score appearing on this report.

HINT: The best bets are not necessarily the highest scores. Rather, they are often the biggest difference between a Shortlist horse and the ‘best of the rest’ in that race.

N.B. Shortlist selections are unlikely to make a profit, at SP at least, to blind backing. Our recommendation has always been that The Shortlist should be a starting point rather than an end in itself. That said, it continues to highlight horses whose chance is better than recent form and its odds might imply.

[Please refer to our User Guide for further information]

Here are my qualifiers on Tuesday's Shortlist...

...where all four must be worth at least a quick look. As ever, the daily feature is complemented by a selection of fully functional racecards opened up to all readers and for Tuesday they cover...

  • 1.05 Navan
  • 4.35 Navan
  • 4.42 Southwell
  • 5.20 Ballinrobe
  • 8.12 Southwell

Aside from one class 3 contest at Fakenham, Class 4 is about as 'good' as it gets in the UK for Tuesday, so let's focus on a pair of runners from The Shortlist, who'll take each other plus nine more on in the 7.00 Hereford, a 4yo+ handicap hurdle over a trip just 73 yards short of two and a half miles on good ground...

My Chiquita has won each of her last two over hurdles and Big Blue Moon won last time out. Notnowlinda and Soldierofthestorm both won their penultimate races, whilst all bar Sacchoandvanzetti (17 losses on the bounce) have won at least once in their last six.

Sacchoandvanzetti's cause isn't helped by stepping up two classes here, but Notnowlinda, Silver Shade and Just Go For It all drop two classes. My Chiquita moves up one grade and Just Loose Change drops one.

It's handicap debut day for Soldat Force and My Chiquita and a second crack for both Cabhfuilfungi and Silver Shade with the latter also making a yard debut, as does Soldierofthestorm.

Most of the field have raced in the last ten weeks, but Just Loose Change, Soldat Forte and Silver Shade might well need the run after breaks of four months, ten months and nineteen months respectively.

Soldierofthestorm's win here two starts ago on Valentine's Day is this field's only course and distance success, although My Chiquita, Just Loose Change, Cabhfuilfungi, Big Blue Moon and Just Go For It have all previously won over a similar trip and Just Go For It (2m6f hurdle) has also won here at Hereford before, as has Notnowlinda (2m½f hurdle)...

Instant Expert (above) shows My Chiquita and Soldierofthestorm as ones to note, just as you'd expect from their position on TS (quick note, that The Shortlist and Instant Expert might look alike, but they do work off different parameters as per the user guide), whilst Notnowlinda, Throne Hall, Cabhfuilfungi, Big Blue Moon and Just Go for It also have some decent win percentages under these conditions.

Since 2010 in similar races here at Hereford, only one front-runner has managed to win...

...with those racing prominently just in behind faring best of all. If we then look at how this field have approached their most recent outings...

I'd say that Soldat Forte is the most likely front-runner and the one with the target on his back for later on.

Summary

Soldat Forte is the likely front-runner and they tend to get caught here at Hereford and the fact that he hasn't raced for ten months increases that likelihood. I'm also against Silver Shade based on his lengthy lay-off and even Just Loose Change might be a bit rusty.

Sacchoandvanzetti is bang out of form and up two classes, whilst Throne Hall has yet to win at either track or trip, so I'm now left with My Chiquita, Notnowlinda, Soldierofthestorm, Cabhfuilfungi, Big Blue Moon and Just Go For It. The latter is likely to want rain to come, as he'd prefer some cut in the ground and Cabhfuilfungi has the lowest win percentage of the six, so those two are the most vulnerable here.

You could then make a case for any of the four that are left from a place perspective, but the one I'd want to be on for win purposes would be My Chiquita and I'd expect Notnowlinda to give her the most trouble.

Unfortunately the market also likes My Chiquita and has installed her as the 10/3 favourite (as of 4.35pm Monday) with Notnowlinda an 11/2 chance. Another of my final four, Big Blue Moon sits between them in the market, but Soldierofthestorm looks big at 12/1 and would be the E/W suggestion here.

Racing Insights, Tuesday 30/04/24

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The Shortlist is Tuesday's free Geegeez GOLD feature and it's a simple (usually brief) report highlighting those horses with a largely ‘green’ profile in the Instant Expert Report each day and it covers win or place stats for both the current and the next day's racing.

GREEN is good (33% or better win rate) – worth 3 points
AMBER is quite good (16-32% win rate) – worth 1 point
RED is not so good (0-15% win rate) – worth -1 points
GREY means there is no available data for that factor - worth 0 points

The final column, ‘Score’, is the sum of the previous five ‘colour’ columns, with 15 being an all green profile, and 9 being the lowest score appearing on this report.

HINT: The best bets are not necessarily the highest scores. Rather, they are often the biggest difference between a Shortlist horse and the ‘best of the rest’ in that race.

N.B. Shortlist selections are unlikely to make a profit, at SP at least, to blind backing. Our recommendation has always been that The Shortlist should be a starting point rather than an end in itself. That said, it continues to highlight horses whose chance is better than recent form and its odds might imply.

[Please refer to our User Guide for further information]

Here are my qualifiers on Tuesday's Shortlist...

...where Rajindri would be of most obvious interest. As ever, the daily feature is complemented by a selection of fully functional racecards opened up to all readers and for Tuesday they cover...

  • 3.00 Brighton
  • 3.40 Punchestown
  • 4.00 Nottingham
  • 5.45 Catterick

...from which I think I will have a look at the 4yr old Rajindri and the other 10 runners in the 5.00 Yarmouth, which is a Class 4, 3yo+ fillies' flat handicap over a straight 7f on good to soft ground...

Nighteyes was the only one of these to have won last time out, but Rajindri was a runner-up and is two from four, whilst Queens Reign, Bella Bisbee and Royal Elysian all won their penultimate starts with the latter also finishing third last time out, as did Rating and Elderflower.

Top-weight Conservatonist drops down a class for his debut for Kevin Ryan, Shin Jihai drops down two classes for her second crack at a handicap and Queen's Reign makes her handicap bow, 3 classes lower than her Group 3 defeat (Solera Stakes) last time out.

Going the other direction are Bella Bisbee and Elderflower who both step up one class for their handicap debuts, whilst it's handicap debut day for Nighteyes and a second attempt for Baileys Pola Dot (after a recent wind op), Bigger than Giga and Royal Elysian.

In fact only Conservationist, Rajindri and Rating have more than one handicap run under their belts and Rating is the horse turned back out quickest, just a fortnight after finishing third of nine at Newmarket. Royal Elysian and Bella Bisbee both ran three and four weeks ago respectively, whilst Baileys Polka Dot (72 days off) is the only other filly to have raced on 2024.

Elderflower was in action just before Christmas last year, but Shin Jihai, Conservationist, Rajindri, Bigger Than Giga, Queens Reign and Nighteyes have all been absent for seven moths or more and might well need the run!

Rajindri is the only one of the field to have raced here at Yarmouth before and he's a course and distance winner, but Queen's Reign, Bigger Than Giga and Shin Jihai have also won over this trip, as shown on a rather depleted-looking Instant Expert...

...dominated as you'd expect by Rajindri from TS. That said, the field only have 52 races between them so far and just 10 wins, so I'm hoping to get a bit more help from the place data...

...which again confirms Rajindri's liking of the expected conditions, but most of them show up well and I wouldn't write any of them off just yet, but Conservationist, Rajindri, Nighteyes and Rating edge it here for me (high percentages off more than just one run!).

I didn't get as much assistance as I'd hoped for from Instant Expert, which is a shame as I'm not expecting much help from the draw stats. Surely there's not much draw bias in a straight seven furlongs here?

Hmmm, not a huge bias, but it would appear that stalls 1 to 5 might well be the place to be, based on an admittedly fairly small sample size, which could potentially be good news for Nighteyes, Queen's Reign, Rajindri, Bella Bisbee and Elderflower. If we then see how those races above were won...

...the inference is quite clear. You need to get on with things early doors here at Yarmouth with those racing prominently or leading going on to provide 57.7% of the winners and 44.2% of the placed horses from just 39.3% of the runners with leaders winning far more than their fair share, so if any of Nighteyes, Queen's Reign, Rajindri, Bella Bisbee and Elderflower are front-runners, they could be expected to go well.

Now, we never who might lead, but by looking at how horses have raced in the past, we can sometimes make a judgment call as to how a race might pan out, so let's look at this field's most recent efforts...

...where Conservationist, Nighteyes, Rating and Queen's Reign would be the ones to take from here and this quartet will emerge from stalls 11, 1, 9 and 2 respectively.

Summary

If we start with recent form, then Nighteyes, Rajindri, Queens Reign, Bella Bisbee, Royal Elysian, Rating and Elderflower all merit a second look and it was Conservationist, Rajindri, Nighteyes and Rating who caught my eye most from Instant Expert.

We then moved to the draw and ace stats and from past similar races, stalls 1 to 5 (Nighteyes, Queen's Reign, Rajindri, Bella Bisbee and Elderflower) were deemed the best places to be drawn for a race that suits leaders and prominent runners. From the field's last few races, Conservationist, Nighteyes, Rating and Queen's Reign seem most likely to be setting the tempo.

It's very rare that a horse ticks all the analysis boxes for me, but one horse keeps popping up here and that's Nighteyes. I do have some concerns about her nine-month layoff, but having looked at the market at 5.45pm on Monday...

...I'd be happy with 10/1 as an E/W option.

Rating and Rajindri also ticked several boxes and I suspect they'll both go well and this could easily be the day that Rating finally gets off the mark after eight defeats, She has been close of late, finishing 233 in her last three outings and should come on for having had a run earlier this month. Rajindri has conditions to suit here, too and should be in the mix if race-ready after a break.

Racing Insights, Tuesday 23/04/24

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The Shortlist is Tuesday's free Geegeez GOLD feature and it's a simple (usually brief) report highlighting those horses with a largely ‘green’ profile in the Instant Expert Report each day and it covers win or place stats for both the current and the next day's racing.

GREEN is good (33% or better win rate) – worth 3 points
AMBER is quite good (16-32% win rate) – worth 1 point
RED is not so good (0-15% win rate) – worth -1 points
GREY means there is no available data for that factor - worth 0 points

The final column, ‘Score’, is the sum of the previous five ‘colour’ columns, with 15 being an all green profile, and 9 being the lowest score appearing on this report.

HINT: The best bets are not necessarily the highest scores. Rather, they are often the biggest difference between a Shortlist horse and the ‘best of the rest’ in that race.

N.B. Shortlist selections are unlikely to make a profit, at SP at least, to blind backing. Our recommendation has always been that The Shortlist should be a starting point rather than an end in itself. That said, it continues to highlight horses whose chance is better than recent form and its odds might imply.

[Please refer to our User Guide for further information] and here is Tuesday's Shortlist...

...and whilst none are perfect, the 7.30 Wolverhampton has two representatives above and might be interesting. As ever, the daily feature is complemented by a selection of fully functional racecards opened up to all readers and for Tuesday they cover...

  • 1.45 Southwell
  • 3.20 Epsom
  • 3.30 Southwell
  • 5.10 Gowran Park
  • 5.20 Tipperary

...and from all of those above, the highest-rated race is the 3.20 Epsom. It might only have seven runners, but it looks like a really competitive Class 2, 4yo+ flat handicap over a left-handed 1m2f on good ground...

Qitaal is the only LTO winner in the field and has won two of his last three starts, whilst both Felix and Ziggy had top three finishes on their last outings. Ziggy has won two of his last five, but Felix has lost fifteen on the bounce in a run stretching back to January 2021. Silent Film has also failed to win since 2021 (June in this case), suffering eight losses on the spin despite the card denoted him as being a fast finisher. Crystal Delight has lost ten on the bounce since December 2022 and Western Soldier makes a UK turf debut after a win and a place in five hurdle contests, although his last three runs have been poor.

It's new yard debut day Crystal Delight and Western Soldier with the latter also wearing a tongue tie for the first time on his handicap debut as he returns to action following a wind op. Qitaal runs in a handicap for just the second time, a month after scoring at Doncaster on handicap debut defying a 687-day layoff! At 30 days since his last run, Qitaal is actually the quickest turned back out of the field, with none of his rivals being seen for over 9 weeks. Ziggy hasn't raced for 15 months!

Silent Film and Dual Identity have both ran here at Epsom before, but neither have won here and the former is one of just two, along with Western Soldier, yet to win over today's trip. From the limited amount of information carried by Instant Expert for this field...

...I have concerns over the win percentages of Silent Film and Dual Identity at this grade, whilst Crystal Delight looks generally weak. Qitaal's mark is now 6lbs higher than his LTO win, but that looks quite reasonable when you see that Dual Identity, Silent Film, Ziggy and Felix are all 7 to 15lbs higher than their own last winning marks on the Flat. Qitaal has never raced on good ground, but with a good to soft win and a good to firm place, there's no reason why he shouldn't 'get' the going here.

If we then look at the place stats...

...Silent Film's record at this level is unchanged, but Dual Identity has at least got himself out of the red on class. Ziggy' place form at going/distance is really interesting, but Felix seems to prefer 1m on turf, although he has a good place record at 1m1½f/1m2f on the A/W.

The draw stats are interesting here with those drawn in stalls 1-3 looking like they'd have the best of it...

...but the PRB3 figures also suggest that those drawn highest also have a great chance of making the frame, but I suspect that with only seven runners over a fair distance that the pace of the race will have a greater bearing on the outcome and of those 50-odd races above, it's clear to see what tactics have worked best...

Essentially, if you can lead, do so. If you can't get as close in as you can! Leaders and prominent runners make up approx 46% of the runners (171/372), but account for over 64% (34/53) of the winners and almost 55% (68/124) of the placers with those racing further back much less likely to succeed, which based on this field's most recent outings...

...suggests that the likes of Qitaal and Ziggy might be the ones setting the pace, but Felix looks well up against it, if he's going to race in the rear.

Summary

At the start, I said this looked competitive and it still looks that way, although not especially in a good sense. In-form Qitaal is the stand-out for me based on the 'evidence' above, but the others are all much of a muchness, if truth be told and you can make cases for and against all of them. The 4.30pm market looked like this...

...and the 11/4 about Qitaal seems fair (I had him at around 5/2). Western Soldier does look the least likely, but he's a 14/1 to 16/1 shot in my eyes, but I wouldn't entertain an E/W bet on him. there's no E/W pick from me here, but if pushed to pick one for the forecast, I think Dual Identity has the fewest negatives about him.

Racing Insights, Tuesday 16/04/24

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Tuesday's free offering from the GOLD service is the The Shortlist feature, a simple – and usually brief – report highlighting those horses with a largely ‘green’ profile in the Instant Expert Report each day. It covers win or place stats, and can be viewed for both today’s and tomorrow’s racing.

GREENis good (33% or better win rate) – worth 3 points
AMBERis quite good (16-32% win rate) – worth 1 point
REDis not so good (0-15% win rate) – worth -1 points
GREY means there is no available data for that factor - worth 0 points

The final column, ‘Score’, is the sum of the previous five ‘colour’ columns, with 15 being an all green profile, and 9 being the lowest score appearing on this report.

HINT: The best bets are not necessarily the highest scores. Rather, they are often the biggest difference between a Shortlist horse and the ‘best of the rest’ in that race.

N.B. Shortlist selections are unlikely to make a profit, at SP at least, to blind backing. Our recommendation is – and has always been – that The Shortlist should be a starting point rather than an end in itself. That said, it continues to highlight horses whose chance is better than recent form - and its odds - imply. As ever, please refer to our User Guide for further information!

And this how The Shortlist looks for this Tuesday...

...where the first pair would be of the most obvious interest and we do still also have our daily list of 'free' racecards, which are as follows...

  • 2.40 Naas
  • 3.30 Newmarket
  • 3.40 Ffos Las
  • 5.00 Naas

...and as I can't resist stayers' handicaps on difficult ground, it has to be In Rem and the 4.50 Ffos Las for me today. It's an 8-runner (fingers crossed for E/W bettors), Class 4, 4yo+ handicap hurdle over a left-handed three miles on heavy ground...

None of the eight managed to win last time out, but Ballymagroarty Boy, Mahland, Longshanks, In Rem, Fevertre and Monbari all made top three finishes. Mahland and Longshanks have been runners-up in each of their last two starts, whilst Fevertre has a win and a runner-up finish from his last two.

Fevertre's recent good form might now be checked as he steps up a class to run here, but this contest might prove a little easier than Minella Blueway and Thunderclap's last outings as they both make a double drop down from Class 2 action last time. Mahland no runs in a handicap for the second time after a narrow half-length defeat at Exeter recently.

Ballymagroarty Boy and In Rem are the only two horses to have won at either track or trip and they have both, in fact, won here over course and distance with the former doing so four starts and four months ago when winning for the first time in five years, whilst In Rem won here in October 2021 at the start of a sequence of five consecutive victories over trips of 2m5½f to 3m2½f and as you'd expect from a runner on The Shortlist, he's the eyecatcher on Instant Expert...

...mind you, the bar looks to be set fairly low, as Minella Blueway is 0 from 4 on heavy ground; Ballymagroarty Boy, Longshanks and Fevertre have struggled to win Class 4 races and Ballymagroarty Boy's return at this trip is lamentable at 1 win from 14, but he has (somewhat surprisingly!) made the frame in nine of the thirteen defeats...

...numbers that in isolation give him a great chance of making the frame again, whilst Thunderclap and Monbari look a little vulnerable.

In the past, it has paid to be up with the pace here over hurdles at Ffos Las in contests of 2m6f and beyond on ground deemed as soft or 'worse'...

...which based on the field's more recent efforts could be good news for Mahland, Longshanks, Monbari and Ballymagroarty Boy...

...whilst featured runner In Rem led the way last time out before eventually finishing third at Exeter. He was three lengths behind the re-opposing runner-up, Longshanks, that day but is 3lbs better off today, suggesting the two might be much more closely matched here.

Summary

I though the 'best' two horses in the race might well be Mahland and Longshanks, but based on their last run and the weight adjustment here, In Rem will be closer to Longshanks. And it's Mahland, Longshanks and Fevertre who arrive here in the best form. In Rem was the immediate eyecatcher on Instant Expert, but it was hard to ignore Ballymagroarty Boy's place numbers and he also seems well suited by the pace profiling, as do Mahland, Longshanks and Monbari.

Based on the names featured in that quick summary above, Mahland and Longshanks are the ones who feature most, so should really be my 1-2 and I'd have them in that order. That said In Rem could well overturn the LTO placings with Longshanks and it's hard to ignore the place claims of Ballymagroarty Boy. Hopefully the market at 5.50pm will help me formulate any potential bet.

Having checked the odds, Mahland would still be my winner here, but I think 11/4 is a bit mean/short, so I'll pass on that option. 5/1 looks fair/reasonable about Longshanks, but I don't see him winning the race and 5/1 is no E/W price in my eyes, but that can't be said about the 9/1 and 10/1 being offered about In Rem and Ballymagroarty Boy respectively and I think a couple of small E/W plays there might be the call for me.

Racing Insights, Tuesday 09/04/24

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Tuesday's free offering from the GOLD service is the The Shortlist feature, a simple – and usually brief – report highlighting those horses with a largely ‘green’ profile in the Instant Expert Report each day. It covers win or place stats, and can be viewed for both today’s and tomorrow’s racing.

GREENis good (33% or better win rate) – worth 3 points
AMBERis quite good (16-32% win rate) – worth 1 point
REDis not so good (0-15% win rate) – worth -1 points
GREY means there is no available data for that factor - worth 0 points

The final column, ‘Score’, is the sum of the previous five ‘colour’ columns, with 15 being an all green profile, and 9 being the lowest score appearing on this report.

HINT: The best bets are not necessarily the highest scores. Rather, they are often the biggest difference between a Shortlist horse and the ‘best of the rest’ in that race.

N.B. Shortlist selections are unlikely to make a profit, at SP at least, to blind backing. Our recommendation is – and has always been – that The Shortlist should be a starting point rather than an end in itself. That said, it continues to highlight horses whose chance is better than recent form - and its odds - imply. As ever, please refer to our User Guide for further information!

And this how The Shortlist looks for this Tuesday...

...with just one qualifier, but thankfully we do still also have our daily list of 'free' racecards, which are as follows...

  • 2.30 Hereford
  • 2.50 Hexham
  • 5.15 Thirsk
  • 7.30 Southwell

...where Cool Party's race is the highest rated of the four available. The race itself is the 6.00 Southwell, a 6-runner, Class 4, 4yo+ A/W handicap over a left-handed 1m6f on standard tapeta...

COOL PARTY hasn't been seen since going down by 10 lengths here on 15th December and hasn't won a race since the end of September when scoring at Haydock over today's trip after an eleven-month barren run. Might need the run here, but does drop down a class.

ISLE OF SARK just doesn't win races. He scored on his debut at Dundalk in November 2020, but is now 1 from 19! He's not a lost cause, mind; he has made the frame in each of his last four and five of his last six and has three runner-up finishes from his last four where he has been beaten by a neck, a short-head and a neck last time out. Off the same mark here, he should be in the mix again.

ROBUSTO has four wins and four places from his nine outings over the last year, but hasn't raced for six months now. Has moved from Sir Mark Prescott's yard in that time and now steps up a class for his yard debut for Eve Johnson Houghton and is possibly the one to beat here.

DREAMS FLED AWAY also makes a yard debut here, having moved to be trained by Barry Brennan after a 12-race career in Ireland for Shane Crawley. He was a decent third of fourteen on his last race for Shane, twenty-five days ago beaten by just three parts of a length and has been in decent nick with a two wins and two places from his last five, all at Dundalk.

MARBUZET is another who hasn't been seen for over six months and now re-appears in first-time cheekpieces. He was in good form before his break, making the frame in nine consecutive races, winning twice. He's 3lbs higher than his last run, so might enjoy a shorter trip here.

ADDOSH hasn't been seen on a racecourse since the end of November when pulled up in a handicap hurdle at Hereford in what was an eighth successive defeat over hurdles since his last A/W outing, when last of seven here beaten by twelve lengths in January 2023. His Flat/AW record is pretty poor with just one win from 13 and his A/W form reads 24067. Probably best avoided.

The win element of Instant Expert doesn't tell us too much...

...but Isle of Sark's knack of running well but just finding one (or two) just a bit too good for him is well documented in these place stats...

...where he looks almost nailed-on to (a) lose but (b) make the frame again! He's drawn fairly centrally here, but over 1m6f, the draw shouldn't really make a huge difference. That might be a good thing, because we don't have much data from similar past races, as there aren't many previous small field 1m6f contests on the tapeta here, but this is what we do have...

I certainly wouldn't lean too heavily on that piece of information alone, but if asked to draw anything from it, I'd say that I'd want to be in stalls 2 to 4. What I can tell you from those races above, is that horses who've attempted to make all have really struggled to get home ahead of the pack...

...with the stalking prominent horse(s) faring much better. This is probably not great news for Cool Party, who looks like he'll be the one setting the fractions here, if 'recent' races are anything to go by for this field...

Summary

We've worked with limited data and a small field here and often it' a case of going with who you think is the best runner. Isle of Sark certainly wouldn't be winning out of turn, but he gets no respite from the assessor and always manages to get beaten! And I suspect that'll be the case here again today with Robusto the one to beat for me.

Isle of Sark will be pretty short in the market, so if you wanted an E/W option, you could look at Marbzuet, another consistent placer.

The market looked like this at 6.20pm...

...so good luck!

Racing Insights, Tuesday 26/03/24

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The Shortlist is Tuesday's free Geegeez GOLD feature and it's a simple (usually brief) report highlighting those horses with a largely ‘green’ profile in the Instant Expert Report each day and it covers win or place stats for both the current and the next day's racing.

GREEN is good (33% or better win rate) – worth 3 points
AMBER is quite good (16-32% win rate) – worth 1 point
RED is not so good (0-15% win rate) – worth -1 points
GREY means there is no available data for that factor - worth 0 points

The final column, ‘Score’, is the sum of the previous five ‘colour’ columns, with 15 being an all green profile, and 9 being the lowest score appearing on this report.

HINT: The best bets are not necessarily the highest scores. Rather, they are often the biggest difference between a Shortlist horse and the ‘best of the rest’ in that race.

N.B. Shortlist selections are unlikely to make a profit, at SP at least, to blind backing. Our recommendation has always been that The Shortlist should be a starting point rather than an end in itself. That said, it continues to highlight horses whose chance is better than recent form and its odds might imply.

Unfortunately, my fairly restrictive settings (you get to choose your own) have generated no qualifiers, but as ever, the daily feature is complemented by a selection of fully functional racecards opened up to all readers and for Tuesday they cover the following...

  • 4.20 Taunton
  • 5.45 Southwell
  • 7.30 Dundalk
  • 7.45 Southwell

...the best of which (on paper, at least) looks like being the 4.20 Taunton, a 6-runner, Class 3, 4yo+ handicap hurdle on good to soft ground over what will be a shade beyond 2m1f after rail movements...

My initial thoughts were that this might be quite competitive despite the small field with only top-weights Wolf Prince and Manor Park looking like they might struggle, but let's take a closer look at the whole field...

WOLF PRINCE made the frame in three consecutive races in the summer of 2022, but has disappointed in two runs this season after taking nearly 18 months off. Now without a win in 14 races since mid-October 2021, it's hard to see him landing this one, although he has won at both 2m and 2m2f.

MANOR PARK drops a class here as he returns from eight months off the track, during which time he has moved yards. he did win two starts ago at this class/trip at Newton Abbot back in July 2023, but flopped next/last time out a fortnight later at Market Rasen and a watching brief is advised here, even if he is 4 from 12 at 2m1f.

CELTIC ART has won over 2m in the past and is 3 from 5 on good to soft ground, so won't want any more rain to fall here. He was a winner in both January & February last year and again in November, but with three indifferent runs in between. Since then, he has run poorly on a couple of occasions, but looked like coming back into a bit of form a 4-length third of none over this course and distance five weeks ago.

AMELIA'S DANCE is a bit of an enigma, she loves it here with three of her four career wins coming over course and distance, but she's only 4 from 34 overall and has no win since scoring over track and trip in December 2022. She has been beaten eleven times since then, but has been the runner-up in each of her last three outings and in five of her last six, so she wouldn't be winning out of turn. Sadly her run of near misses means she's still 10lbs higher than her last winning mark and she's up a class today.

TOONAGH WARRIOR is much less experienced (just 11 starts) than the four runners above (who have raced 30+ times each), but has gone well since starting hurdling last September, finishing 321264 in six starts. The 6th place can be excused, as he'd stepped from 1m7½f to 2m4f, but his other four defeats at 1m7½f-2m were by an average of less than five lengths and he's eased 2lbs here today, but he is up one class.

HARA KIRI comes here on a hat-trick but will have to contend with stepping up two classes. He has won his last couple by narrow margins and his last run was littered with errors and he'll probably not get away with them at this level. That said, going and trip are both fine for him and he has only failed to make the frame twice in nine starts. He's also up 3lbs here, so will definitely need to work a bit harder today.

And Instant Expert confirms that Amelia's Dance has found wins hard to come by...

...on good to soft (1 from 9) and at Class 3 (0 from 9), but that she loves it here (3/8 and 3/6 over C&D), whilst Manor Park has also struggled at the going, class, and course. The trip shouldn't be an issue for most of these, but despite a smattering of 'green', there's no absolute standout on the win stats. That said, the field only has a combined strike rate of 13.8% (24 from 174), so we shouldn't have expected much more. Hopefully, we'll glean a little bit extra from the place stats...

...where Celtic Art is probably the pick of the pack, but Amelia's Dance looks more of a contender with some solid numbers from a decent sample size of races. Manor Park still looks out of his depth here and if he runs like he normally does, then he's going to be playing catchup later in the race too...

...which might leave him adrift as there might well be plenty of early pace. Celtic Art likes to get on with things, as does Wolf Prince, whilst Amelia's Dance was only headed deep into the final furlong last time out and it's those runners on the front end who tend to fare best in these contests...

Summary

Having looked at the race again, it's every bit as competitive as I thought it might be and you could easily make a case for four of them and the 5pm market seems to reflect this...

I'm not seeing a great deal of value in that price about Hara Kiri if truth be told, as he'll need considerable improvement if he's to complete the hat-trick. I don't think I'll even place a bet in this one (which is perfectly fine/acceptable, of course), but the one I probably would have gone with would be Celtic Art. He's no standout here, but ticks a few boxes.

Amelia's Dance will give her usual gutsy Taunton showing, but she's out of form and too high in the weights, so Toonagh Warrior might be the 'surprise package' here. Could be worth watching with a cup of tea, though, even if I've no cash down.

Racing Insights, Tuesday 19/03/24

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The Shortlist is Tuesday's free Geegeez GOLD feature and it's a simple (usually brief) report highlighting those horses with a largely ‘green’ profile in the Instant Expert Report each day and it covers win or place stats for both the current and the next day's racing.

GREEN is good (33% or better win rate) – worth 3 points
AMBER is quite good (16-32% win rate) – worth 1 point
RED is not so good (0-15% win rate) – worth -1 points
GREY means there is no available data for that factor - worth 0 points

The final column, ‘Score’, is the sum of the previous five ‘colour’ columns, with 15 being an all green profile, and 9 being the lowest score appearing on this report.

HINT: The best bets are not necessarily the highest scores. Rather, they are often the biggest difference between a Shortlist horse and the ‘best of the rest’ in that race.

N.B. Shortlist selections are unlikely to make a profit, at SP at least, to blind backing. Our recommendation has always been that The Shortlist should be a starting point rather than an end in itself. That said, it continues to highlight horses whose chance is better than recent form and its odds might imply.

[Please refer to our User Guide for further information] and here is Tuesday's Shortlist...

...where Lough Leane would be of most obvious immediate interest. As ever, the daily feature is complemented by a selection of fully functional racecards opened up to all readers and for this Tuesday they cover the following...

  • 2.45 Wetherby
  • 3.15 Wetherby
  • 3.45 Wetherby

Lough Leane is definitely worth a look at, but having won his last three, I'd guess he's going to be fairly short in the market, so I'll revert to the 'free' races, all of which have at least one runner on The Shortlist too and the best of the three races to analyse is likely to be the last of them, as Shortlist 11pts Shighness takes on five rivals in the 3.45 Wetherby, a Class 3, 5yo+ Novices Limited Handicap Chase over 3m 87yds on soft ground...

TOP OF THE BILL had a rare off-day when well beaten over 3m½f at Exeter last time out, having won his previous two efforts, both over the same course and distance. He had been raised 8lbs for the race and the assessor has relented slightly by dropping him back 2lbs here. If that run was a one-off, he'll be right in the mix here.

COLLECTORS ITEM takes a drop in class here in a bid to arrest a run of seven defeats, three over hurdles and four over fences. He hasn't managed to make the frame over fences yet and was well beaten last time out. He was a decent hurdler, so maybe it's just taking him a while to adjust, but others make more appeal to me here.

DONNY BOY won his sole bumper, won on hurdles debut and was a runner-up in successive chases in October/December last year. Ran well enough at Doncaster last time out, but was only 4th of 7, beaten by over 8 lengths and now has a 52-day layoff to contend with.

LORD OF KERAK is the only LTO winner in the field, but that was a walkover at Leicester 11 days ago, where he just had to jump the fences and trot round. Prior to that, he was a runner-up in two of his last three races and is now on his lowest chasing mark. He's not an obvious winner, but has made the frame in half of his races.

CERENDIPITY had no joy in a pair of bumpers, but won at 2m3½f over hurdles 14 months ago. His recent chase form was good (313) last winter before being pulled up at Haydock and then falling at Doncaster prior to only finishing third of five last time out. He's genuine enough, but this is a major step up in trip that will test his unproven stamina.

SHIGHNESS wears cheekpieces for the first time here, as she edged right when beaten by 11 lengths at Carlisle a month ago. She had been running well prior to that race, finishing as a 2-length runner-up over this course and distance two months ago and then winning a 4-runner 3m1½f contest at Catterick at the start of February. has also ran well (14143) over this type of trip over hurdles, so the distance won't be an issue if she can run/jump a bit straighter here.

Instant Expert says that Donny Boy hasn't raced on soft ground in the last two years, (although he has ran badly in two heavy ground efforts), but that all of his rivals have won at least once...

Donny Boy certainly looks the weakest across the board here, whilst wins have also been hard to come across for Lord of Kerak over this trip and Cerendipity at this grade, but Lord of Kerak does look to be on a workable mark of 120 and his place stats look like keeping him in contention for a place...

...whereas Donny Boy & Cerendipity still look at sea in this grade. This pair are likely to take very different approaches to this race if their recent histories are anything to go by...

...as Cerendipity looks like he might be the one to challenge confirmed front-runner Top Of The Bill for the early lead, whilst Donny Boy looks like he'll have to come from the back of the pack if he wants to win here, which might be easier said than done, according to our Pace Analyser...

Summary

Donny Boy is the current (Monday 3.55pm) 11/4 favourite with Bet365 (5/2 with Hills), but unless I'm missing something that doesn't seem like great value about a horse placed just once in five starts over fences, whose 'best' work has been at Class 4 and doesn't seem suited by the pace profile. Instead, I'd prefer to be with Top of the Bill at 9/2 after winning two of his last three, he scores well on Instant Expert and will be up with the early pace, if not setting it.

The Shortlist horse Shighness should obviously relish the conditions here and give his usual running but at a best price of 4/1 would be too short for an E/W bet, even if he will be up with the pace. If I was to go for a longer-priced horse to make the frame, I'd be tempted by the 7/1 (or hopefully bigger later) offered about Lord of Kerak. He doesn't win many, but makes the frame in half of his races, has been in decent enough recent form and is on a dangerously low mark.

Racing Insights, Tuesday 12/03/24

/in /by

The Shortlist is Tuesday's free Geegeez GOLD feature and it's a simple (usually brief) report highlighting those horses with a largely ‘green’ profile in the Instant Expert Report each day and it covers win or place stats for both the current and the next day's racing.

GREEN is good (33% or better win rate) – worth 3 points
AMBER is quite good (16-32% win rate) – worth 1 point
RED is not so good (0-15% win rate) – worth -1 points
GREY means there is no available data for that factor - worth 0 points

The final column, ‘Score’, is the sum of the previous five ‘colour’ columns, with 15 being an all green profile, and 9 being the lowest score appearing on this report.

HINT: The best bets are not necessarily the highest scores. Rather, they are often the biggest difference between a Shortlist horse and the ‘best of the rest’ in that race.

N.B. Shortlist selections are unlikely to make a profit, at SP at least, to blind backing. Our recommendation has always been that The Shortlist should be a starting point rather than an end in itself. That said, it continues to highlight horses whose chance is better than recent form and its odds might imply.

[Please refer to our User Guide for further information]

Here are my qualifiers on Tuesday's Shortlist...

...which is, as usual for this time of the year, very heavily Cheltenham-based. For those of you looking to separate your Festival bets from your non-Festival bets, then The Shortlist looks like this...

As ever, the daily feature is complemented by a selection of fully functional racecards opened up to all readers and for Tuesday they cover...

  • 2.10 Cheltenham
  • 5.55 Southwell
  • 6.45 Newcastle
  • 7.30 Southwell

And although the 4.10 Cheltenham has four runners on The Shortlist, I'm going to leave that alone, as better pundits than I will have already written about it here on Geegeez. Yet away from Cheltenham we do have a 15-rated Shortlist runner in one of our 'free' races, so let's head towards the 5.55 Southwell for today's column. It's as far removed from the Festival as it could be, being a 7-runner, Class 6, 4yo+ A/W handicap over a left-handed 2m½f on standard tapeta...

Since finishing as a runner-up in back to back races at Wolverhampton in October and December 2023, The Craftymaster is six from six, including four wins on Tapeta, three over today's trip, one here at Southwell and one over course and distance, when two lengths clear last time out. None of his rivals won last time out, but Midnight Shimmer was a runner-up and Socialist Agenda was third of nione here over 1m6f. Aside from The Craftymaster, only Churchella has won any of their last seven races, as she scored three and five races ago.

Her hopes will be boosted by a drop down from Class 5, just as Zooks does in a first-time tongue tie, but any hope might extinguished by the fact that The Craftymaster also makes the same step down in grade, whilst Kintaro drops down two classes for his first run in cheekpieces.

The Craftymaster has five wins and a place from six efforts at 2m/2m½f and is 1 from 1 here at Southwell, but none of his rivals have scored at either track or trip with Instant Expert making our featured runner look a bit of a shoo-in...

Churchella's wins last September & December set her aside from the others on going and class, but she's still 3lbs higher than her last win despite losing her last two. That said, she ran pretty well to finish second of six over course and distance here two starts ago in what has been her only effort beyond 1m6f to date and this run is reflected below in the IE place stats...

...where bottom-weight Midnight Shimmer also becomes of interest and Sugarpiehoneybunch looks very vulnerable having made the frame just once in thirteen all-weather races. Just seven run here in total and over such a lengthy trip, my personal logic is that the draw really shouldn't have any effect on the outcome. Two miles is a long way to run after the gates open and even if you're six away from the rail, that shouldn't be the reason for not winning, but I'll check the stats anyway, of course.

I had to widen the search parameters to get anywhere near a working sample size, as follows...

...and although they (and I normally) say you can't argue with stats, I think that some hold more validity than others and I remain unconvinced that draw is as important in small-field staying races as it might be elsewhere (sorry, Matt!).  Pace, however, is a different story as race tactics/tempo can easily make or break a horse's chances and what we found from those races above was that leaders have a good record of making the frame, but don't manage to hold onto the lead...

If we look at the field's most recent efforts, I think that the lead will be contested by Zooks, Kintaro and Midnight Shimmer...

...which makes them very susceptible to late runs from The Craftymaster, Churchella and Socialist Agenda, as I've already put Sugarpiehoneybunch out of contention.

Summary

He's going to be terribly short, but barring some form of fluke or disaster, this has to be The Craftymaster's seventh win on the bounce. I know he's up in weight carrying a penalty but he's down in class and should blow these all away late on. I'm not a fan of backing shorties and there were no odds available at 3.15pm on Monday, but the two tissues I saw had him at 5/4 & 7/4 and if you can get those types of prices, then there could actually still be some value from a runner that I think should be odds on.

Elsewhere, Midnight Shimmer and Socialist Agenda should run their races and the tissues have them at around the 7/2 and 4/1 mark respectively, but the one I think that might beat them and make the frame would be Churchella at 11/2 or thereabouts. She's got some relatively recent winning form in the bank and has two wins and a runner-up finish from four rides with Danny Tudhope in the saddle and Danny is 19 from 88 (21.6% SR) on the tapeta here at Southwell, including 8 from 32 at Class 6, 7 from 21 on favourites, 5 from 30 for trainer David O'Meara and 2 from 2 on Class 6 favs.

Racing Insights, Tuesday 05/03/2024

/in /by

The Shortlist is Tuesday's free Geegeez GOLD feature and it's a simple (usually brief) report highlighting those horses with a largely ‘green’ profile in the Instant Expert Report each day and it covers win or place stats for both the current and the next day's racing.

GREEN is good (33% or better win rate) – worth 3 points
AMBER is quite good (16-32% win rate) – worth 1 point
RED is not so good (0-15% win rate) – worth -1 points
GREY means there is no available data for that factor - worth 0 points

The final column, ‘Score’, is the sum of the previous five ‘colour’ columns, with 15 being an all green profile, and 9 being the lowest score appearing on this report.

HINT: The best bets are not necessarily the highest scores. Rather, they are often the biggest difference between a Shortlist horse and the ‘best of the rest’ in that race.

N.B. Shortlist selections are unlikely to make a profit, at SP at least, to blind backing. Our recommendation has always been that The Shortlist should be a starting point rather than an end in itself. That said, it continues to highlight horses whose chance is better than recent form and its odds might imply.

[Please refer to our User Guide for further information]

Here are my qualifiers on Tuesday's Shortlist...

...where Esprit du Potier (The Potter's Spirit?) must be worth at least a quick look. As ever, the daily feature is complemented by a selection of fully functional racecards opened up to all readers and for Tuesday they cover...

  • 3.20 Newcastle
  • 6.00 Southwell
  • 6.30 Southwell
  • 8.30 Southwell

The first of our trio of 'free' evening races is not only the joint highest-rated race in the UK for Tuesday, but also the most valuable, so let's have a look at who might land the £7851 top prize in the 6.00 Southwell, a 10-runner, Class 3, 4yo+ A/W handicap over a left-handed mile on standard tapeta...

As I'm a bit later than usual going 'live ' today, I've already seen the market, which I don't usually do and my initial thoughts about the race were that the top four in the market are probably the ones to look hardest at ie Assessment, Tropez Power, Borgi and Leap Day in card order, but the analysis might tell me otherwise.

None of the ten managed to win last time out, but Assessment has won two of his last four, Borgi was an LTO runner-up and Leap Day has been runner-up in each of his last two. Tropez Power, Perseverants and Vecchio are winless in 8, 7 and 7 with Vecchio being a seven-race maiden, whilst despite not winning any of his last eight, Tropez Power has made the frame in seven of his last twelve starts, winning twice.

Borgi, fast-finishing Master of Combat, Perseverants, Vecchio and bottom weight Three Yorkshiremen all step up a class here, whilst Leap Day and Life On The Rocks are both up two classes today. Top weight Assessment makes a yard debut for Archie Watson after leaving Sir Michael Stoute, but might well need the run after a 285-day break, especially as all his rivals have raced in the last 15-45 days.

Vecchio, Life On The Rocks and Borgi have yet to win over this type of distance, but the latter has at least won here at Southwell, landing a 7f maiden on debut back in February 2022. Of his rivals, only Leap Day and Tropez Power have also scored here and both are course and distance winners with the latter having a 131 record from three attempts, making him just about the pick from an average looking set of numbers on Instant Expert...

I say average, rather than poor because all of the red above is from sample sizes of four races or less and if any were to win a race soon, they'd soon be at 20% or higher. Now, whilst the win stats above don't exactly point us towards any sort of decision or help whittle the field down, the same cannot be said about the following place data from the same parameters...

...because they're saying (to me, at least) that we focus on the four I initially mentioned plus Master of Combat, giving us runners in stalls 2, 3, 7, 8 and 10, which might make the draw stats very interesting. Let's check...

...the basic 'split the field into three' stats says that higher drawn runners don't make the frame often enough, but that mid-drawn runners fare best of all, which isn't good considering I've eliminated the runners in stalls 4, 5 and 6! But all is not lost, as the PRB3 data suggests that those drawn lowest still have a good chance of beating most of their rivals...

...whilst the pace data from those very races above...

...says we should avoid pace-setters and hold-up horses wherever possible and that doesn't bode too well for either Leap Day nor Tropez Power from my shortlist.

Summary

I had four runners (Assessment, Tropez Power, Borgi and Leap Day) in mind from the start and I added Master of Combat to the list during my analysis. Master of Combat has been in decent nick and could be an outside bet for the places, but (a) I think he's the least likely of the five to succeed and (b) I'd want more than 7/1 to go E/W on him, even if both Hills and Sky are offering four places.

Then, of my original four, I've doubts about Assessment's race sharpness after more than nine months off. He certainly has ability/promise, but odds of 13/8 to 2/1 don't scream value to me after such a long absence and he is drawn widest of all. Tropez Power is a former course and distance winner and drawn low, but is held-up for a run more often than not and those tactics are a negative here. Borgi has won here before, will be handily placed from a pace perspective from a low draw and the only issue with him is a step up in class, whilst Leap Day is not only up two classes, he's a confirmed front runner and will be the target they will all aim at.

None of my final four tick all the boxes, but after looking back at the market's best odds at 6.30pm...

...my tentative 1-2 would be Borgi to beat Tropez Power, who'll have to avoid traffic on a late run. Leap Day has a better draw than Assessment and might hold him off for the place money.

Racing Insights, Tuesday 27/02/24

/in /by

The Shortlist is Tuesday's free Geegeez GOLD feature and it's a simple (usually brief) report highlighting those horses with a largely ‘green’ profile in the Instant Expert Report each day and it covers win or place stats for both the current and the next day's racing.

GREEN is good (33% or better win rate) – worth 3 points
AMBER is quite good (16-32% win rate) – worth 1 point
RED is not so good (0-15% win rate) – worth -1 points
GREY means there is no available data for that factor - worth 0 points

The final column, ‘Score’, is the sum of the previous five ‘colour’ columns, with 15 being an all green profile, and 9 being the lowest score appearing on this report.

HINT: The best bets are not necessarily the highest scores. Rather, they are often the biggest difference between a Shortlist horse and the ‘best of the rest’ in that race.

N.B. Shortlist selections are unlikely to make a profit, at SP at least, to blind backing. Our recommendation has always been that The Shortlist should be a starting point rather than an end in itself. That said, it continues to highlight horses whose chance is better than recent form and its odds might imply.

[Please refer to our User Guide for further information]

Here are my qualifiers on Tuesday's Shortlist...

...where we've a couple of "15's" that must be worth at least a quick look. As ever, the daily feature is complemented by a selection of fully functional racecards opened up to all readers and for Tuesday they cover...

  • 2.35 Leicester
  • 2.50 Catterick
  • 3.20 Catterick

And of the two "15's", Cat Tiger's race is the highest-rated so let's look at the 4.35 Leicester, a 7-runner, Class 3, 6yo+ Hunter Chase over almost 2m7f after rail movements. It's a right-handed track and here are the runners set to tackle 18 fences on heavy ground...

None of these seven managed to win last time out under Rules, although Espoir de Tellee does come here off the back of a win in a 3m point to point on soft ground 23 days ago, whilst Benny's King was a runner-up (albeit 15L behind the winner) at Wetherby a day earlier. Shang Tang has made the frame in each of his last two, but neither Percussion nor Hardline have won any of their last seven (9 & 23 repectively to be precise)

The top three on the card all ran at Class 5 on their last course outing, so are up two classes, but Percussion drops down two after finishing 5th of 14 at Class 1, having made the frame at both Classes 1 & 2 in his two previous runs. The last horse on the card, Shang Tang moves up one class here and Gallyhill makes a debut under Rules for his new trainer, although he did run in a PTP five weeks ago for this handler.

Espoir de Tellee won this race off today's mark last year and Cat Tiger landed it in 2021, so they're both former course and distance winners, but none of their rivals have won here before (mind you, only Percussion has been here) and only Benny's King has won over a similar trip, landing a 2m6½f chase at Newbury.

Instant Expert doesn't have much relevant data for this one...

...but it does highlight the two former winners' suitability and poses questions about Gallyhill's record at Class 3 and that of Percussion over 2m6f to 3m, although a deeper dig suggests that his place form is rock solid...

The last three renewals of this race have been won by horses racing prominently or setting the pace and more generally speaking here at Leicester that has proven to be the case in 5-9 runner, 2m5f-3m chases on soft/heavy ground...

...which based on the field's most recent efforts would put the likes of Hardline and Shang Tang at a severe disadvantage...

Summary

Hardline and Shang Tang don't look well suited by the pace stats here and the former has forgotten how to win, whilst the latter would prefer a shorter trip. I'll add Gallyhill to this list of discards based on both his more recent racecourse form and the heavy PTP defeat he suffered last time out.

That leaves me with four (Benny's King, Cat Tiger, Espoir de Tellee and Percussion) to choose from and the truth is that any of the four could win or make the frame, so I'd be wanting a bit of value if I'm putting money down on a fairly tight contest. With that in mind, it's time to look at the 5.30pm market, which looks like this...

I can understand why Percussion is favourite after some decent efforts at a higher grade of late, but I'm not keen on backing 5/2 favourites who have managed to find at least one too good for thm in each of their last nine outings. he might well be the best in the race, but I'm not on at 5/2. Cat Tiger is the next in the market from my list and similarly, he also lacks value at 7/2. Yes, he loves it here and won the race three years ago, but hasn't won a race for 25 months and hasn't competed a race for 15 months, so I'll pass on him too, leaving me with last year's winner Espoir de Tellee at 11/2 and Benny's King at 13/2.

I'm tempted to back Espoir to retain the race and to go E/W on Benny's King. Sure, I'd prefer 8/1 (my normal E/W threshold) about the latter, but it's only a 7-runner race.

Please Note : No column tomorrow (Tuesday), as I'm away at my father in law's funeral, but I'll be back Wednesday for a Thursday race preview.

 

Racing Insights, Tuesday 20/02/24

/in /by

The Shortlist is Tuesday's free Geegeez GOLD feature and it's a simple (usually brief) report highlighting those horses with a largely ‘green’ profile in the Instant Expert Report each day and it covers win or place stats for both the current and the next day's racing.

GREEN is good (33% or better win rate) – worth 3 points
AMBER is quite good (16-32% win rate) – worth 1 point
RED is not so good (0-15% win rate) – worth -1 points
GREY means there is no available data for that factor - worth 0 points

The final column, ‘Score’, is the sum of the previous five ‘colour’ columns, with 15 being an all green profile, and 9 being the lowest score appearing on this report.

HINT: The best bets are not necessarily the highest scores. Rather, they are often the biggest difference between a Shortlist horse and the ‘best of the rest’ in that race.

N.B. Shortlist selections are unlikely to make a profit, at SP at least, to blind backing. Our recommendation has always been that The Shortlist should be a starting point rather than an end in itself. That said, it continues to highlight horses whose chance is better than recent form and its odds might imply.

[Please refer to our User Guide for further information] and here is Tuesday's Shortlist...

...and whilst none are perfect, the 6.30 Newcastle has three representatives above and might be interesting. As ever, the daily feature is complemented by a selection of fully functional racecards opened up to all readers and for Tuesday they cover...

  • 3.40 Taunton
  • 5.30 Newcastle
  • 7.30 Newcastle

I do normally try to marry up the daily feature with the daily 'free' races and I could do that with Wild Max running in the 3.40 Taunton, which is a decent enough Class 3 contest, but I've got more data available for the 6.30 Newcastle, which is not only another Class 3 handicap, but also features Azure Angel, Solray and The Caltonian from The Shortlist. The race itself in a very competitive-looking, 8-runner, 4yo+ handicap sprint over a straight 6f on standard tapeta...

...with no less than three LTO winners in the shape of Azure Angel and Solray from TS along with Secret Guest.

FORM : Azure Angel is three from four, Secret Guest two from six, The Caltonian three from five and Solway is two from three. Zaman Jemil won seven races ago and Mighty Power won two starts back and was placed on his last run. Top-weight Lethal Nymph and Mondammej are winless in eight and thirty-two races respectively!

CLASS : Only The Caltonian ran at Class 3 last time around with Azure Angel, Secret Guest, Solray and Mighty Power all up from Class 4, whilst Lethal Nymph, Zeman Jemil and Mondammej all drop down from Class 2.

LAST RUN : Solray had had a ten-week rest, but that is eclipsed by the 137-day and 226-day absences of the top two in the market, Lethal Nymph and sole filly Azure Angel, with the other five rivals all having raced in the last 10-20 days

MISCELLANEOUS : This will be yard debut day for both Lethal Nymph and Zeman Jemil, whilst both Mondammej and Solray are denoted as fast finishers.

COURSE/DISTANCE : All bar Lethal Nymph and Azure Angel are former course and distance winners, but the former has won over this trip four times (Ascot x 2, Doncaster & Wolverhampton) whilst the latter has won here over 7f and over this trip at both Chelmsford and Kempton.

INSTANT EXPERT shows all recent relevant form...

I've included Class 4 form with the field being 0 from 8 at Class 3 and Mondammej's overall lack of wins stands out like a sore thumb here. Mighty Power's best for has been at Class 5, so this looks a big ask. Zaman Jemil's numbers are a little skewed by his C&D win here in August 2022 and he's only won one of ten since and if I lean on the place data...

...I'm probably mainly interested in Azure Angel, Secret Guest, The Caltonian and Solray as the half of the field I'd want to be with, so lets see if the pace and firstly the draw stats persuade me otherwise.

The 'chosen' quartet will emerge from stalls 1, 6, 7 and 8, so I'm hoping for little/no draw bias (I'm not really expecting one) or data suggesting higher drawn runners fare best and whilst i'm pleased to see the actual numbers, they are a bit of a surprise for me...

...but good news for Azure Angel, The Caltonian and Secret Guest, but let's not forget that this is a straight six, where pace generally wins the race...

...which based on recent efforts gives Azure Angel the advantage from my quartet, but also reignites the possibility of a decent run from Lethal Nymph...

...although the pace/draw combination would suggest the highest drawn could still prevail...

Summary

The quartet of Azure Angel, Secret Guest, The Caltonian and Solray are definitely the ones I'd want to pick from and it causes a bit of a quandary. There's every chance that Solray deserves to be the 6.30pm favourite at odds of 2/1 to 5/2 especially after his course and distance success ten weeks ago, but he's up in class and up 7lbs and the pace/draw data is against him. He could quite easily win this, but the price represents little/no value to me.

The pace/draw data does favour the filly Azure Angel, though and 3/1 does suit me better than 2/1, of course. The issue here is, of course, the lengthy break but she's 3 from 3 on the A/W and Aidan Keeley's 3lb claim effectively keeps her on the same mark as her LTO win at Chelmsford where she won despite being shoved into the running rail. She was game that day and might have more to come, much will depend on how race ready she is.

Secret Guest and The Caltonian will hopefully get towed into the race by Zeman Jemil and Azure Angel and they look like being fairly well matched in the hunt for third place.

Overall a tight looking contest and I expect there'll be little between Solray and Azure Angel and it might well boil down to whether it's pace/draw stats or a layoff that gets overcome. Little in it, but I've a (very) marginal preference for the filly Azure Angel.

 

Racing Insights, Tuesday 06/02/24

/in /by

Tuesday's free offering from the GOLD service is the The Shortlist feature, a simple – and usually brief – report highlighting those horses with a largely ‘green’ profile in the Instant Expert Report each day. It covers win or place stats, and can be viewed for both today’s and tomorrow’s racing.

GREENis good (33% or better win rate) – worth 3 points
AMBERis quite good (16-32% win rate) – worth 1 point
REDis not so good (0-15% win rate) – worth -1 points
GREY means there is no available data for that factor - worth 0 points

The final column, ‘Score’, is the sum of the previous five ‘colour’ columns, with 15 being an all green profile, and 9 being the lowest score appearing on this report.

HINT: The best bets are not necessarily the highest scores. Rather, they are often the biggest difference between a Shortlist horse and the ‘best of the rest’ in that race.

N.B. Shortlist selections are unlikely to make a profit, at SP at least, to blind backing. Our recommendation is – and has always been – that The Shortlist should be a starting point rather than an end in itself. That said, it continues to highlight horses whose chance is better than recent form - and its odds - imply. As ever, please refer to our User Guide for further information!

And this how The Shortlist looks for this Tuesday...

...where the first three would be of the most obvious interest and we do still also have our daily list of 'free' racecards, which are as follows...

  • 3.20 Taunton
  • 4.20 Taunton
  • 4.35 Market Rasen

The race featuring numbers 2 & 4 on The Shortlist looks a better contest than the one featuring nos 1& 3, so we'll head to Lincolnshire for the 3.35 Market Rasen, a 9-runner, Class 4, 5yo+ handicap chase over what is effectively a right-handed 3m½f after a 132 yards rail adjustment. The ground is expected to be good to soft and here's how they're due to line up...

All nine set to go to post have raced in the last 22 to 48 days, so there shouldn't be any fitness issues here. Easy Bucks, Scene One and bottom-weight Mixed wave all won last time out and this trio are two from four, three from four and two from three respectively.

Of their rivals, only Concetto has won in the last seven outings and that was seven races ago, whilst Jimmy The Digger, Geryville and Song of Earth are winless in 7, 9 and 7 respectively.

Jimmy The Digger and Geryville do both drop in class here, though, as does Concetto, but bottom-weight LTO winner Mixedwave is up a level for a race that sees Jar du Desert make just a second handicap appearance and Easy Bucks makes a second yard debut for Peter Bowen after 1 run/win in Ireland for John Joseph Hanlon. Scene One and Concetto both wear cheekpieces for the second time after quite differing results in them last time out.

Geryville, Easy Bucks and Concetto have already won over a similar trip to this one, whilst Scene One won here over 2m3½f last time out. Only Mixedwave has won over course and distance, though with two wins and a runner-up finish from three efforts at 3m½f/3m1f and it's Scene One and Easy Bucks who initially catch the eye on Instant Expert...

...although Geryville and Mixedwave have really good place stats...

This type of race has, despite the distance, suited those runners keen to get on with things with prominent runners/leaders providing 55% of the winners and 53.8% of the placers from just 47.1% of the runners...

...which based on the field's last four efforts, puts our three LTO winners, Easy Bucks, Scene One and Mixedwave in the hotseat...

Summary

We have three LTO winners in Easy Bucks, Scene One and Mixedwave and they're the three most likely to get on with it over a course and distance that rewards those setting the tempo. All three are in great form, all three scored well on Instant Expert and two of them appear on The Shortlist. And they're the three to pick from for me.

It's a tight-looking contest, mind and you/the market can make a case for quite a few of these, based on the 6.20pm odds...

...and of my three, I prefer Scene One to beat Mixedwave with Easy Bucks not far out of it.

Racing Insights, Tuesday 30/10/24

/in /by

Tuesday's free offering from the GOLD service is the The Shortlist feature, a simple – and usually brief – report highlighting those horses with a largely ‘green’ profile in the Instant Expert Report each day. It covers win or place stats, and can be viewed for both today’s and tomorrow’s racing.

GREENis good (33% or better win rate) – worth 3 points
AMBERis quite good (16-32% win rate) – worth 1 point
REDis not so good (0-15% win rate) – worth -1 points
GREY means there is no available data for that factor - worth 0 points

The final column, ‘Score’, is the sum of the previous five ‘colour’ columns, with 15 being an all green profile, and 9 being the lowest score appearing on this report.

HINT: The best bets are not necessarily the highest scores. Rather, they are often the biggest difference between a Shortlist horse and the ‘best of the rest’ in that race.

N.B. Shortlist selections are unlikely to make a profit, at SP at least, to blind backing. Our recommendation is – and has always been – that The Shortlist should be a starting point rather than an end in itself. That said, it continues to highlight horses whose chance is better than recent form - and its odds - imply. As ever, please refer to our User Guide for further information!

And this how The Shortlist looks for this Tuesday...

...with Issuing Authority of most immediate interest whilst we do still also have our daily list of 'free' racecards, which are as follows...

  • 1.25 Limerick
  • 4.10 Newcastle
  • 4.20 Limerick
  • 6.00 Southwell

Supremely West from The Shortlist runs in one of the day's four joint highest-rated (it's a fairly low bar mind)races, the 2.45 Chepstow, an 8-runner, Class 3, 4yo+ handicap hurdle over a left-handed 2m4f on heavy ground...

My initial thoughts were that main players here would be Cuthbert Dibble, Supremely West and Jaminska with all three relatively unexposed in handicap company; Supremely West in on handicap debut (as is Heros de Romay), whilst Cuthbert Dibble and Supremely West both make just their second start in handicaps, as does Jack In The Box who will be blinkered/tongue tied for the first time today.

We've also got plenty of class movement here with the top three on the card Cuthbert Dibble, Heros de Romay and Supremely West all up one level from Class 4, as is the 13yr old veteran Totterdown, whilst bottom weight Jaminska drops two classes a month after finishing third of six in a Listed race at Taunton. Heros de Romay was also third last time out, having finished 121 in his previous three career runs. Supremely West was a runner-up at Southwell after winning five of hiss previous six outings (inc 3 x NHF wins), whilst our sole LTO winner, Cuthbert Dibble now returns from almost ten months off the track since winning two of his last three.

Current Mood has been off even longer at 404 days (the remainder have all raced in the last seven weeks), but has already won a Class 4, 2m½f Novice hurdle here on soft ground with Heros de Romay's heavy ground course and distance win on his penultimate start being the only other Chepstow success from this group, mind you four of these have never been here before, but all bar Current Mood, Totterdown and Jaminska have already managed to win over a similar trip, according to Instant Expert...

Bashful Boy's record at Class 3 is poor at 1 from 13 and that's the biggest concern from the above graphic. We've three heavy ground winners, of course, which is a positive, whilst Cuthbert Dibble and Supremely West are 2 from 3 and 3 from 3 respectively on soft ground, The place data suggests we focus on the top half of the card which consists of the three I though most likely plus Heros de Romay...

The key to success here at Chepstow on heavy ground has been to be up with the pace...

...with those leading or racing prominently claiming 77.8% of the wins and 68.1% of the placers from just 48.4% of the runners with those willing to set the pace faring best of all, which based on this field's last four outings...

...would be a further blow to Current Mood, Jack In The Box and Bashful Boy. The veteran Totterdown in the most likely pacemaker, but at just one win in four years I can't see him hanging on now up in both trip and class.

Summary

My initial thoughts were that main players here would be Cuthbert Dibble, Supremely West and Jaminska and I've not seen anything to dissuade me. Heros de Romay scored well on Instant Expert and likes to get on with things, so he's also in the mix.

Cuthbert Dibble is the 2/1 favourite with Hills (the only book open at 3.30pm Monday), but that looks short about a horse off the track for ten months, up in class, winless on heavy ground and who tends to be held up off the pace. He might well end up being the best of this whole group and might also win this race, but 2/1 is too short for me and I think the in-form Supremely West from The Shortlist offers much better value at 5/1.

He won by 12 lengths and 5 lengths at Carlisle and Sedgefield in the autumn before finishing second at Southwell last time out, running into one who looks like he might go places. he's 1 from 1 on heacvy, 3 from 3 on soft and has finished 12112 in five starts under today's jockey. I thought he might have been around 4/1 or even shorter, so win or lose I think there's a bit of value at 5's.

Of the other two in the top half of the card, I marginally prefer Jaminska, the market marginally prefers Heros de Romay but with them both around the 7/2 to 4/1 mark we agree that there's little between them and neither are E/W options! After these four at 5/1 and shorter, the other half of the field are 11/1 and longer, but I'm struggling to make an E./W case for any!