Tag Archive for: The Shortlist

Racing Insights, Tuesday 19/09/23

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Tuesday's free offering from the GOLD service is the The Shortlist feature, a simple – and usually brief – report highlighting those horses with a largely ‘green’ profile in the Instant Expert Report each day. It covers win or place stats, and can be viewed for both today’s and tomorrow’s racing.

GREENis good (33% or better win rate) – worth 3 points
AMBERis quite good (16-32% win rate) – worth 1 point
REDis not so good (0-15% win rate) – worth -1 points
GREY means there is no available data for that factor - worth 0 points

The final column, ‘Score’, is the sum of the previous five ‘colour’ columns, with 15 being an all green profile, and 9 being the lowest score appearing on this report.

HINT: The best bets are not necessarily the highest scores. Rather, they are often the biggest difference between a Shortlist horse and the ‘best of the rest’ in that race.

N.B. Shortlist selections are unlikely to make a profit, at SP at least, to blind backing. Our recommendation is – and has always been – that The Shortlist should be a starting point rather than an end in itself. That said, it continues to highlight horses whose chance is better than recent form - and its odds - imply. As ever, please refer to our User Guide for further information!

And this how The Shortlist looks for this Tuesday...

And we do still also have our daily list of 'free' racecards, which are as follows...

  • 2.15 Yarmouth
  • 3.25 Yarmouth
  • 4.25 Listowel
  • 7.30 Newcastle

...from all of which, I think I'll see how Forceful Speed from The Shortlist might get on in the 3.35 Redcar, a 7-runner, Class 4, 3yo+ flat handicap over a left-handed 1m2f on good to firm ground...

Ron O and Forceful Speed both won last time out and are both two from five. Stressfree won his penultimate race. Skilled Warrior and Bringbackmemories won five/six starts ago respectively, but Highwaygrey and Flight of Angels are winless in their recent formline and the latter now steps up in class, as does Bringbackmemories.

Stressfree makes a yard, a UK and a handicap debut after just three outings in France for Carlos Laffon-Parias, finishing 217 in the process and he, along with Forceful Speed and the sole filly Flight of Angels all receive a 5lb allowance as 3 yr olds.

Ron O, Skilled Warrior and Stressfree are yet to win over a similar trip, although they have won over a mile, a mile and 1m1f respectively, whilst Instant Expert says that of the three to have already raced here at Redcar, only Ron O (2 from 2) has won at the track and the lack of a 1m2f victory aside, he does seem to be well suited by conditions...

...although he is up 7lbs for that win 24 days ago, whereas Forceful Speed is only 2lbs higher than his LTO win. There doesn't seem to be too many horror stories above, win-wise, although you might think that Skilled Warrior and Flight of Angels weren't quite at Class 4 standard and it is Ron O and Forceful Speed who catch the eye here. The draw might be a factor here as those two will emerge from the lowest and highest stalls, so let's see if that could sway our decision making...

And that looks like much better news for Forceful Speed than Ron O, but the pace data suggests that if the latter can get out and set/be up with the pace, it might not be a total disaster...

...but sadly Ron O doesn't look like the type to set the tempo of a race and it's likely that Forceful Speed and Flight Of Angels will be the ones leading them out from stalls 1 & 5 respectively and we'd have to hope than the latter can tow Ron O into the race...

Summary

Forceful Speed was always going to be of interest, but I really liked Ron O until the pace/draw data cast a bit of a shadow over him. I still think he'll go well and is more than capable of winning this, but if he doesn't follow Flight of Angels early, as she tacks across, then his chance might be gone. Elsewhere Forceful Speed has the plum draw and is likely to get out sharpish, meaning he can hold the rail and take the shortest route and it's for this reason that I'm taking him at 11/4 (Hills @ 4.45pm) to beat the 7/1 (Hills) Ron O.

That said, 7/1 is a decent E/W option and I fancy Ron O to be ahead of Flight of Angels late on.

 

Racing Insights, Tuesday 12/09/23

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Tuesday's free offering from the GOLD service is the The Shortlist feature, a simple – and usually brief – report highlighting those horses with a largely ‘green’ profile in the Instant Expert Report each day. It covers win or place stats, and can be viewed for both today’s and tomorrow’s racing.

GREENis good (33% or better win rate) – worth 3 points
AMBERis quite good (16-32% win rate) – worth 1 point
REDis not so good (0-15% win rate) – worth -1 points
GREY means there is no available data for that factor - worth 0 points

The final column, ‘Score’, is the sum of the previous five ‘colour’ columns, with 15 being an all green profile, and 9 being the lowest score appearing on this report.

HINT: The best bets are not necessarily the highest scores. Rather, they are often the biggest difference between a Shortlist horse and the ‘best of the rest’ in that race.

N.B. Shortlist selections are unlikely to make a profit, at SP at least, to blind backing. Our recommendation is – and has always been – that The Shortlist should be a starting point rather than an end in itself. That said, it continues to highlight horses whose chance is better than recent form - and its odds - imply. As ever, please refer to our User Guide for further information!

And this how The Shortlist looks for this Tuesday...

...where all those rated at 10 or higher are at least worth a second glance and we do still also have our daily list of 'free' racecards, which are as follows...

  • 1.40 Leicester
  • 4.15 Catterick
  • 5.15 Laytown
  • 5.25 Galway
  • 7.25 Galway

I do, where possible, try to 'marry up' the daily free feature with the free racecard list and that's actually possible today, as 11-rated on The Shortlist Vadamiah runs in the 4.15 Catterick (as does 9-rated Texas Man of course), a 9-runner, Class 5, 3yo+ flat handicap over a straight 5f on good/good to soft ground...

Despite the disparity on the SR figures, this looks a tight, competitive affair, where our feature horse Vadamiah (one of two females in the race) carries top weight, but she does drop three classes here after finishing well down the field (although only 3.5 lengths down) in a £50k Class 2 handicap at the Ebor meeting three weeks ago. Fellow female Havagomecca drops down one class here, as do Castin and Albegone.

Birkenhead steps up a class after back to back runner-up finishes, a pair of results matched by Murbih and with no LTO winners in the field, these two bring the best form to the table, but Papa Don't Preach, Murbih and Jojo Rabbit are winless in 8, 13 and 12 respectively and all three have pretty dismal win records on turf.

Castan is the sole 3 yr old in the field and gets a 1lb allowance for that and he's one of five previous course and distance winners here. All nine have won at least once at this trip and only Havagomecca, Papa Don't Preach, Murbih and Jojo Rabbit have yet to win here at Catterick. Mind you, that last trio who are on long losing runs are 0 from 10, 0 from 13 and 1 from 17 respectively on the Flat, so a win here would be a surprise!

No fitness issues with them all having raced in the last month or so, but Murbih did run on Saturday and although it's a short turnaround, that was his best effort for some time. Instant Expert highlights the poor Flat win records of this trio and also shows why Vadamiah and Texas Man are on The Shortlist...

There's really not a great deal to write home about there with possibly only the two shortlisted runners and Castan emerging with much credit and even the latter has struggled on the going. When i said this might be tight/competitive, I didn't actually say that it was a decent quality, though! Perhaps the place stats will show some of these in a better light...

Well, they say that Castan is better on the going than at first suggested, but the others who looked best on the win stats haven't really enhanced their positions and have been caught up by some of the others. I've seen enough about Papa Don't Preach and Jojo Rabbit to discount them from my thoughts now, though. They're both drawn middle to high here in a race that doesn't (in my opinion) display any real bias or advantage from a stalls positioning...

..but it's one where the emphasis is clearly on early speed as this illustrates only too well...

...and with this field's recent efforts looking like this...

...you'd have to think that Vadamiah would have an excellent chance of grabbing the lead and therefore running on for at least a place and I think if we just look at the field's last two outings we'll get a more realistic view of how they might break...

Summary

It's probably easier if I start by saying who I don't really fancy here! I already ruled out Papa Don't Preach and Jojo Rabbit at an early point and I think that pace will be the undoing for Texas Man and Havagomecca's chances of landing this and that's probably the same for Birkenhead. He's in good nick, but doesn't win often enough and with more than half the field setting off quicker than him, a place is his best shot.

Of the five ahead of him, none are really prolific, but Vadamiah loves it here. Murbih doesn't win on grass and I think Castan is the most interesting of all of them. He may only be 2 from 12 on Turf, but has made the frame seven times, all his best runs have been at this trip and the going will suit him. He has one win and one place from three efforts over course and distance and at 10/1 looks a decent E/W punt for me.

As for a winner? Stick a pin in the card! If pushed Vadamiah's course record and his all-out pace profile probably tip the balance his way, but is he a 10/3 shot here? I'd expected double that, so I'll leave the win bet alone on value, but I expect him to go well.

Racing Insights, Tuesday 05/09/23

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Apologies for there being no preview of Monday's action, I was unwell over the weekend (even too ill to go for a beer after football!) and spent most of Saturday evening and Sunday in bed, but I feel just about well enough to put something together for Tuesday, so back to it!

The Shortlist is Tuesday's free Geegeez GOLD feature and it's a simple (usually brief) report highlighting those horses with a largely ‘green’ profile in the Instant Expert Report each day and it covers win or place stats for both the current and the next day's racing.

GREEN is good (33% or better win rate) – worth 3 points
AMBER is quite good (16-32% win rate) – worth 1 point
RED is not so good (0-15% win rate) – worth -1 points
GREY means there is no available data for that factor - worth 0 points

The final column, ‘Score’, is the sum of the previous five ‘colour’ columns, with 15 being an all green profile, and 9 being the lowest score appearing on this report.

HINT: The best bets are not necessarily the highest scores. Rather, they are often the biggest difference between a Shortlist horse and the ‘best of the rest’ in that race.

N.B. Shortlist selections are unlikely to make a profit, at SP at least, to blind backing. Our recommendation has always been that The Shortlist should be a starting point rather than an end in itself. That said, it continues to highlight horses whose chance is better than recent form and its odds might imply.

[Please refer to our User Guide for further information] and here is Tuesday's Shortlist...

...where a good half dozen would be of most obvious interest initially. As ever, the daily feature is complemented by a selection of fully functional racecards opened up to all readers and for Tuesday they cover the following...

  • 1.50 Bangor
  • 3.20 Goodwood
  • 3.55 Goodwood
  • 7.15 Hamilton

The best of that quartet of free races would appear to be the first of the ones from Goodwood, featuring last year's winner Aggagio who scores 15 on The Shortlist, so it's probably the right decision to cover the 3.20 Goodwood, a 9-runner, Class 2, 3yo+ flat handicap over a right-handed two miles on good to soft ground...

Temporize won last time out and has made the top three in five of his six, as has Novel Legend who has won three of his last seven. Grand Providence has won two of her six career starts and has never been out of the first three home, but Rhythmic Intent is winless in his last ten starts and Merveillo is a 12-race maiden, mainly over hurdles.

Top weight Earlofthecotswolds makes a second handicap outing and Rhythmic Intent, Aggagio, Pona Aelius and Grand Providence all step up a class. The card says Merveillo is up three classes, but that's from a recent hurdles outing. His last flat run was at this grade, but back in May 2022!

Only Rhytmic Intent, Merveillo (obviously) and Temporize are yet to win over this trip, but the latter did win here over 2m4½f last time out, whilst Vino Victrix, Pons Aelius and Aggagio are all course and distance winners. The latter won this race last year, of course and has finished 1152 in four efforts over track and trip. Pons Aelius represents the Johnstons who trained the winner of this race in 2018, 2019 and 2021.

Earlofthecotswolds last raced 88 days ago and Novel legend has had 45 days rest, but the remainder have all raced in the last month or so, but have all had at least 11 days recovery time. Bottom weight Grand Providence is the sole 3 yr old in the field and receives a hefty 11lbs allowance here.

As you'd expect from his place on The Shortlist, last year's winner Aggagio scores well on Instant Expert, but he's not the only runner with plenty of 'green', as Vino Victrix and Temporize amongst others look well suited too...

Although there's a fair chunk of 'red' on there too, the only alarming stat is Rhythmic Intent's 1 win from 16 in this grade, so I'd say it was fair to assume he'd been tried, tested and failed. He's not for me, despite a mark 6lbs lower than his last win. The three horses drawn highest are carrying six to ten pounds more than their own last wins, which might make life more difficult, although the draw shouldn't.

Stats do suggest that those drawn highest haven't gone as well as others...

...but I'm not convinced that the draw can cause you to lose over a two mile trip, but race tactics might. Those races above haven't been too kind to pacemakers or hold-up types with the key being to be close to the pace without setting it...

...which, based on recent endeavours, might not bode well for Aggagio or the already written-off Merveillo...

Summary

It's hard to look anywhere other than the form horses, Novel Legend and Temporize and this is reflected in the market where they are 5/2 fav and 4/1 2nd fav respectively and they certainly look the ones to beat. As for the places, Pons Aelius is sure to be there or thereabouts, but I do like the 3yr old filly Grand Providence. She's yet to run a bad race, gets a hefty weight allowance and did beat Temporize in July, albeit by a neck and she's 4lbs worse off here.

Racing Insights, Tuesday 29/08/23

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The Shortlist is Tuesday's free Geegeez GOLD feature and it's a simple (usually brief) report highlighting those horses with a largely ‘green’ profile in the Instant Expert Report each day and it covers win or place stats for both the current and the next day's racing.

GREEN is good (33% or better win rate) – worth 3 points
AMBER is quite good (16-32% win rate) – worth 1 point
RED is not so good (0-15% win rate) – worth -1 points
GREY means there is no available data for that factor - worth 0 points

The final column, ‘Score’, is the sum of the previous five ‘colour’ columns, with 15 being an all green profile, and 9 being the lowest score appearing on this report.

HINT: The best bets are not necessarily the highest scores. Rather, they are often the biggest difference between a Shortlist horse and the ‘best of the rest’ in that race.

N.B. Shortlist selections are unlikely to make a profit, at SP at least, to blind backing. Our recommendation has always been that The Shortlist should be a starting point rather than an end in itself. That said, it continues to highlight horses whose chance is better than recent form and its odds might imply.

[Please refer to our User Guide for further information] and here is Tuesday's Shortlist...

...where Island Bandit would of the the most obvious immediate interest. As ever, the daily feature is complemented by a selection of fully functional racecards opened up to all readers and for Tuesday they cover the following...

  • 2.15 Ripon
  • 3.40 Newbury
  • 6.20 Worcester
  • 7.15 Bellewstown

The sharper eyed amongst you will have noticed that Island Bandit from The Shortlist runs in one of the free races above, so it would be a little remiss of me not to take a look at the the 3.40 Newbury, a 10-runner, Class 3, 3yo+ flat handicap over a straight mile on good/good to firm ground...

Featured runner Island Bandit has won two of his last three outings and along with Cabinet of Clowns, he comes here on the back of a win last time out. Bodorgan and Remarkable Force were in the frame on their last runs, but the latter is one of a pair (Intervention being the other) who are winless in five or more ( 9 & 21 respectively) races. In fact, although Intervention is denoted as a fast finisher here, a Flat record of 1 from 21, a run of 21 consecutive defeats and a two-step rise in class is enough for me to rule him out of contention straight away.

Cabiney of Clowns, Monte Linas and the out of form Remarkable Force all step up a class (and that should put paid to the latter's chances too), but two of the field (top-weight Classic and Crack Shot) are dropping down from Class 2 with the latter having a second run in handicap company, just under four weeks after his handicap debut and all ten runners here have raced inside the last four weeks.

As you'd expect from his position on The Shortlist, Island Bandit is a former course and distance winner and is in fact, the only previous Newbury winner in the field. Mind you, only half of the field have been here before! He has also won over a mile away from Newbury, as have Metabolt, Cabinet of Clowns, Sea Eagle and Monte Linas, as documented below on Instant Expert...

...where Island Bandit's numbers really do stand out and Intervention looks weak again. There are plenty of red blocks above, but most of them are from sample sizes of five races or fewer, so I think the place data might prove helpful here...

Well, that wasn't entirely helpful, but it does suggest that many of these should run well enough under the expected conditions. Classic has, however, failed to make the frame in four attempts here at Newbury and Bodorgan looks weak on going/distance. Island Bandit's record on the going is also interesting, with all 6 places (from 13 runs) being wins. Boom or bust, perhaps?

If he's going to land another course success, he's going to have to do it from stall 9 of 10, though, and our draw analyser does suggest he'd have been better off drawn lower...

This doesn't of course, mean that he can't win, but to overcome the draw, our pace analyser suggests that his best tactic would be to get out quickly and stay out for as long as he possibly can...

...especially as our pace/draw heat map says that high drawn front-runners have the best of it over a mile here at Newbury...

...which is great news for Island Bandit, based on his most recent efforts...

...and those average pace scores aligned with today's draw generate the following pace/draw heat map...

Summary

The market seems to favour Classic here as the early 9/4 fav, but I'm not entirely convinced. He has failed to shine here at Newbury, hasn't really tackled this trip and would prefer the ground to be softer. There's no disputing his ability, Team Hannon don't throw runners straight into Group 3 action after a seven break if they don't think they're any good, but I'm not sure 9/4 represents any value. He does, of course, has a good draw and a 6lbs weight allowance and I'm sure he'll give a good account of himself unburdened by the weight of my money! 😉

Instead, I feel more drawn to Instant Expert and the pace/draw heat map, where from low to high, Cabinet of Clowns, Island Bandit and Crack Shot catch my eye and whilst featured runner Island Bandit is carrying a 5lb penalty for a recent two-length success, he has conditions to suit and has two wins and a runner-up finish under today's jockey. He might not quite get there today, but at 11/1, Island Bandit has to be my E/W pick, whilst Cabinet of Clowns wouldn't be a bad call at 10's either after winning two of his last four.

As for Crack Shot, much might depend on how Island Bandit runs and if he tows him into the race. If he gets the break he needs and builds on a promising handicap debut last time out in a higher grade at Glorious Goodwood, he could well be the winner here at 9/2, but I'm playing if relatively safe with my E/W picks.

 

Racing Insights, Tuesday 22/08/23

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Tuesday's free offering from the GOLD service is the The Shortlist feature, a simple – and usually brief – report highlighting those horses with a largely ‘green’ profile in the Instant Expert Report each day. It covers win or place stats, and can be viewed for both today’s and tomorrow’s racing.

GREEN is good (33% or better win rate) – worth 3 points
AMBER is quite good (16-32% win rate) – worth 1 point
RED is not so good (0-15% win rate) – worth -1 points
GREY means there is no available data for that factor - worth 0 points

The final column, ‘Score’, is the sum of the previous five ‘colour’ columns, with 15 being an all green profile, and 9 being the lowest score appearing on this report.

HINT: The best bets are not necessarily the highest scores. Rather, they are often the biggest difference between a Shortlist horse and the ‘best of the rest’ in that race.

N.B. Shortlist selections are unlikely to make a profit, at SP at least, to blind backing. Our recommendation is – and has always been – that The Shortlist should be a starting point rather than an end in itself. That said, it continues to highlight horses whose chance is better than recent form - and its odds - imply. As ever, please refer to our User Guide for further information!

And this how The Shortlist looks for this Tuesday...

...whilst we do still also have our daily list of 'free' racecards, which are as follows...

  • 4.00 Newton Abbot
  • 6.00 Worcester
  • 7.00 Worcester

Both Worcester races feature on The Shortlist above and I think I'll have a look at Peregrine Run in the 6.00 Worcester, a 12-runner, Class 2, 4yo+ handicap chase over a left-handed 2m7f on good ground...

Brief Times arrives here on a hat-trick and is thwe only LTO winner on the pack, although Courtland has three wins and a runner-up finish from his last four outings. Featured horse Peregrine Run carries top weight here and he has two wins and a place from his last four whilst Hell Red, Go On Chez, Saint Arvans & The Vollan have all won once in five.

Only four (Peregrine Run, Ruthless Article, Hell Red & Eritage) of these raced at this grade last time out as Brief Times, Go On Chez, Saint Arvans, Organdi and The Vollan all step up a level from Class 3 and bottom weight Gats and Co is up two classes whilst Killer Clown and Courtland both ran at Class 1 a month ago in the Summer Plate at Market Rasen where the former was pulled up whilst the latter was the runner-up beaten by just three quarters of a length having conceded 13lbs to the winner who has since won again.

Peregrine Run won this race last year (but is now 9lbs higher) making him the only course and distance winner in the field, although Saint Arvans, The Vollan and Gats And Co have all won over this trip elsewhere, whilst Courtland (2 x 2m4½f chases) and The Vollan (2m4f hurdle) have both won on this track.

We've no new headgear on show, no horses moving yard and all bar The Vollan have had a run in the last 16 to 35 days, but The Vollan hasn't been seen since being pulled up at Market Rasen on Boxing Day last year and can be excused if he needs the run.

In terms of previous chase outings under similar conditions, Instant Expert suggests that most will be well suited by the good ground...

...although Killer Clown, Ruthless Article and Organdi are a pretty poor 3 from 29 between on the going. As you'd expect from The Shortlist, Peregrine Run has the best figures under these conditions but it has to be said that apart from the odd decent run here and there, he's not the horse he was in 2018/19 when winning Listed & Grade 3 contests. Mind you, he is 13 now and time isn't his friend.

Killer Clown and Organdi's record over this kind of trip is as bad as their records on good ground and it's time to remove that pair from my calculations, even if the former has landed a couple of Class 2 chases.

If I think Peregrine Run's star is on the wane, but he has the best figures, it's probably worth looking at the place stats for the ten remaining runners to see who might emerge as a contender...

Again, Peregrine Run's numbers are excellent, but the one looking like the one to beat so far is Courtland. Aside from being unexposed in this grade, conditions look ideal for him and he's 3 from 5 under today's jockey, although he is a whopping 12lbs heavier than his last win and 6lbs heavier than his Class 1 near-miss last time out.

He tends to race prominently, but will probably have to tuck in behind expected pace-maker Gats And Co, if the field's last four outings are anything to go by...

...whilst The Vollan and Go On Chez seem destined to be held up for a late run, a tactic which hasn't really been that successful in past races here at Worcester...

Summary

The pace scores suggest that Gats And Co will lead in a race that suits leaders, but I feel he's going to be more a pace-maker/target for the runners just in behind him rather than being a serious contender himself.

He won four chases on the bounce (but is only 4 from 19 in his career) in Feb to June of 2022 taking his mark from 92 to 125 and hasn't looked remotely like winning any of eight races since and with him being some 9lbs wrong at the weights here, I predict a ninth successive loss.

That, of course, opens the door to those racing closest to him, of which the pick has to be Courtland. He comes here in terrific form and was only narrowly beaten at a higher grade last time out. His Instant Expert scores were good and he has a brilliant relationship with today's jockey. 4/1 isn't overly generous, but it's probably about right, so it's Courtland for me here.

Of the others, I wouldn't be surprised to see the 7/1 Hell Red and the 9/2 Brief Times go well, whilst others in with a shout of making the frame (bookies go 4 places) would include (alphabetically) Peregrine Run and Saint Arvans.

Go On Chez is the current 4/1 jt fav along with Courtland, but he was beaten by Brief Times last time out and both face tougher tasks here.

Racing Insights, Tuesday 15/08/23

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The Shortlist is Tuesday's free Geegeez GOLD feature and it's a simple (usually brief) report highlighting those horses with a largely ‘green’ profile in the Instant Expert Report each day and it covers win or place stats for both the current and the next day's racing.

GREEN is good (33% or better win rate) – worth 3 points
AMBER is quite good (16-32% win rate) – worth 1 point
RED is not so good (0-15% win rate) – worth -1 points
GREY means there is no available data for that factor - worth 0 points

The final column, ‘Score’, is the sum of the previous five ‘colour’ columns, with 15 being an all green profile, and 9 being the lowest score appearing on this report.

HINT: The best bets are not necessarily the highest scores. Rather, they are often the biggest difference between a Shortlist horse and the ‘best of the rest’ in that race.

N.B. Shortlist selections are unlikely to make a profit, at SP at least, to blind backing. Our recommendation has always been that The Shortlist should be a starting point rather than an end in itself. That said, it continues to highlight horses whose chance is better than recent form and its odds might imply.

[Please refer to our User Guide for further information]

Here are my qualifiers on Tuesday's Shortlist...

...and as ever, the daily feature is complemented by a selection of fully functional racecards opened up to all readers and for Tuesday they cover...

  • 4.00 Nottingham
  • 4.30 Nottingham
  • 7.00 Newcastle
  • 7.15 Chelmsford

Mayfair Gold has green for going, class, course and distance and she runs on one of our free races, so let's see how she might fare in the 7.15 Chelmsford, a 10-runner, Class 5, 3yo+ fillies' A/W handicap over a left handed 1m2f on standard polytrack...

Moonspirit won on just her second outing LTO, whilst Mayfair Gold and Hey Lyla both finished second, but none of their other rivals made the frame. After that recent win, Moonspirit now makes a handicap debut, as does fellow 3 yr old Rosa Chinensis who drops back to Class 5 after one run at Class 2.

In fact only the top four on the card are older than 3 yrs old, which means they're disadvantaged here to the tune of some 8lbs, but all of them bar Tahasun do at least take a drop in class here. Smiling Sunflower wears blinkers for the first time here and featured runner Mayfair Gold is hooded for a second time.

Top weight Croachill has won over a similar trip at Doncaster, whilst both Tahasun and Mayfair Gold are former course and distance winners with the latter also a runner-up over track and trip last time out.

That was three weeks ago and most of this field have had at least one run in the last 2.5 to 6.5 weeks, aside from bottom weight Creme Chantilly, who now returns from an 11-week rest following a poor run (last of 11, 12 lengths down) at Leicester, although she did actually won here over a mile on her second start back in October 2022.

That course win can be seen here on Instant Expert, of course...

My main take-away from those graphics above are that whilst this isn't a great race, it could well be a competitive affair and that both Smiling Sunflower and Valkyrian look weak. I'm happy to 'eliminate them from my enquiries' as we continue our analysis. As you'd expect from her position on The Shortlist, Mayfair Gold scores well here.

She is, however, drawn widest of all, so we'll need to consult the Geegeez Draw Analyser to see whether stall 10 is likely to be a help or a hindrance or if it really shouldn't matter...

...and the inference from the above is that the further away from stall 1 a horse is drawn, the progressively worse the chances of winning become, which should be great news for Creme Chantilly, but not good at all for Mayfair Gold. However, closer inspection of the stall by stall data from those races...

...shows that horses drawn higher than stall nine in those races won 20 of 185 races at a rate of 10.81%, which is on par or better with most of the other stalls, although the three lowest drawn horses have won most often overall at a rate of 12.33%. Yet the fact that stall 10 can outperform stall 3 suggests that Chelmsford races are decided by race tactics aka pace more often than they are decided by the draw, especially over trips longer than a mile and our Pace Analyser says that those races above have been won as follows...

Leaders win and place most often, prominent runners win almost as often as leaders and win more often than mid-division/hold-up runners combined, so form a win perspective we want a horse keen to get on with things, whilst for the places, we could do with avoiding runners who tend to be held-up like the already discarded Valkyrian. This is, of course, based on how the field has run in their last few races...

Summary

Moonspirit, Mayfair Gold and Hey Lyla bring the best form to the table and Mayfair Gold scored best on Instant Expert. I wasn't too concerned/interested in the draw, but the pace stats hand the initiative to Moonspirit and whilst there's probably not going to be much between them, I think she'll just have too much for Mayfair Gold.

There were no odds available at 4.25pm Monday, so I'll have to check back later, but I suspect the pick will be around the 9/4 mark which might not offer too much value. Tissue prices about Mayfair Gold suggest that she could be around 11/2, which might actually be worth a small stakes bet; I think she has more chance than 11/2.

Hey Lyla won't be much longer than Mayfair Gold in the betting and that's not long enough for me to have and E/W bet (I like to bet E/W at 8's or longer generally), but if you wanted a bit of a punt based on trust/faith more than anything else, then Creme Chantilly might be better than double-digit odds, especially if she gets away well.

Racing Insights, Tuesday 08/08/23

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The Shortlist is Tuesday's free Geegeez GOLD feature and it's a simple (usually brief) report highlighting those horses with a largely ‘green’ profile in the Instant Expert Report each day and it covers win or place stats for both the current and the next day's racing.

GREEN is good (33% or better win rate) – worth 3 points
AMBER is quite good (16-32% win rate) – worth 1 point
RED is not so good (0-15% win rate) – worth -1 points
GREY means there is no available data for that factor - worth 0 points

The final column, ‘Score’, is the sum of the previous five ‘colour’ columns, with 15 being an all green profile, and 9 being the lowest score appearing on this report.

HINT: The best bets are not necessarily the highest scores. Rather, they are often the biggest difference between a Shortlist horse and the ‘best of the rest’ in that race.

N.B. Shortlist selections are unlikely to make a profit, at SP at least, to blind backing. Our recommendation has always been that The Shortlist should be a starting point rather than an end in itself. That said, it continues to highlight horses whose chance is better than recent form and its odds might imply.

[Please refer to our User Guide for further information]

Here are my qualifiers on Tuesday's Shortlist...

...with one of more obvious immediate interest than the other, whilst as ever, the daily feature is complemented by a selection of fully functional racecards opened up to all readers and for Tuesday they cover...

  • 4.35 Catterick
  • 6.00 Roscommon
  • 6.30 Roscommon
  • 8.20 Chelmsford

...from which I think I'll check out Temper trap in the 6.10 Ripon, as Sea Appeal looks mighty short in a 4-runner contest! The 6.10 Ripon is a 7-runner, Class 6, 4yo+ flat handicap for apprentice jockeys over a right-handed mile on soft ground...

Featured horse Temper Trap is second widest drawn and top weight of the eight runners and after winning this race last year is the only course and distance winner in the field. None of the others have won at Ripon before, but all bar Extinction (2nd run in a handicap today), Antagonize and Jewel of Kabeir have all won over today's trip elsewhere.

How Bizarre and fast finisher Chagall both come here off the back of wins, whilst Temper Trap comes in search of a quick-fire hat-trick inside 12 days, for which he's penalised 5lbs. Of the other four runners, only Bay Dream Beleiver has win in his most recent form line.

None of the field should be too rusty, as Grangeclare View's 8-week break is the longest any of these have been off the track since their last run and Temper Trap won at Hamilton as recently as Saturday evening! Extinction, Grangeclare View and Bay Dream believer all drop a class, which is useful especially for the latter who was a runner-up last time out.

It's an apprentice jockeys' race with five of the riders using claims of 3 to 10lbs, but both Temper Trap and Chagall will be ridden by non-claimers with a bit more experience, which might be vital here.

Temper Trap comes from The Shortlist, so you'd be well within your rights to expect him to score well on Instant Expert...

...and he certainly doesn't disappoint. He looks head and shoulders above the field here, despite a 5lb rise in weight. Mind you Chagall is some 10lbs higher than his last flat win almost three years ago, although he is only 3lbs higher than when winning on the A/W at Lingfield three weeks ago and he's got good place stats, especially on soft ground as does How Bizarre whose place form looks solid if unspectacular, although it's Antagonize's place numbers that look second best to Temper Trap.

One of the form horses, Bay Dream Believer has bagged stall number 1, whilst our featured runner, Temper Trap is out in box 7 and if previous similar past contests are anything to go by, then the former might have an advantage over the latter...

...as the lower half of the draw seems to have much better results. The above races tended to be won by those runners racing most prominently with prominent/leaders winning 50% more often than mid-div/hold-up types, which based on the field's most recent efforts doesn't look such good news for Bay Dream Believer...

Summary

It's not a great race, really, but it's difficult to look beyond Temper Trap. The problem is, that he looks an obvious pick and the bookies are onto it and he's 7/4 across the board. I think he wins this again here, but I'm not going gung-ho at those odds, I thought he might have been a bit longer.

Chagall (9/2), Bay Dream Believer (5/1) and How Bizarre (11/2) all come here in good nick, but fall down in different areas and I wouldn't see any of them beating the fav. All three are too short for an E/W punt, but you can get 17/2 about Antagonize and if he runs like he did last time out, then he could well make the frame if the form horses don't fire.

 

Racing Insights, Tuesday 01/08/23

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Sorry for the lack of a preview of Monday's racing, I was out all day Sunday with a plan to putting the piece up early on Monday morning. Sadly, United Utilities had other ideas and we'd no power here until after 1pm!

Thankfully, everything seems fine now, so we'll kick off the new month with a look at Tuesday's Shortlist...

...where Presentandcounting and Kinross are of obvious interest, but Indication Spirit, Basford and Pride of America must also be worth a look at. I've shown you this graphic, because Tuesday's free offering from the GOLD service is the The Shortlist feature, a simple – and usually brief – report highlighting those horses with a largely ‘green’ profile in the Instant Expert Report each day. It covers win or place stats, and can be viewed for both today’s and tomorrow’s racing.

GREENis good (33% or better win rate) – worth 3 points
AMBERis quite good (16-32% win rate) – worth 1 point
REDis not so good (0-15% win rate) – worth -1 points
GREY means there is no available data for that factor - worth 0 points

The final column, ‘Score’, is the sum of the previous five ‘colour’ columns, with 15 being an all green profile, and 9 being the lowest score appearing on this report.

HINT: The best bets are not necessarily the highest scores. Rather, they are often the biggest difference between a Shortlist horse and the ‘best of the rest’ in that race.

N.B. Shortlist selections are unlikely to make a profit, at SP at least, to blind backing. Our recommendation is – and has always been – that The Shortlist should be a starting point rather than an end in itself. That said, it continues to highlight horses whose chance is better than recent form - and its odds - imply. As ever, please refer to our User Guide for further information!

We do still also have our daily list of 'free' racecards, which are as follows...

  • 2.00 Beverley
  • 4.00 Goodwood
  • 5.05 Beverley
  • 6.20 Perth
  • 8.20 Galway

When you've a runner scoring 15 on The Shortlist running in a race from the free list that happens to be a Class 1 affair, then it'd be rude of me not to look at the race in question, even if Kinross is likely to be a short-priced favourite in the 4.00 Goodwood, the 8-runner, Group 2 Lennox Stakes. The trip is a right-handed 7f on ground that is currently good to soft with softer patches in places and here's the line-up...

Holguin won last time out and Audience comes here on a hat-trick. Featured horse Kinross won this race in 2021 and his last six races have seen him land two wins and a runner-up at Gr2 plus a win and a place at Gr1, the only blot being a 5 length defeat at Ascot when 7th of 16 in the Gr1 Queen Elizabeth II Jubilee Stakes two starts ago, as he came off a 250+ day absence. Elsewhere Isaac Shelby is inexperienced but has won three of his five starts to date including success at Gr3 and Gr2.

If we look at the weights, the 3yr old Isaac Shelby would be best off based on Official Ratings, as he's rated a 114 horse and will carry 6lbs less than the 119-rated Kinross, but these two look most well in based on handicap marks with Pogo looking the worst treated here, carrying 6lbs more than Isaac Shelby despite being rated 3lbs worse.

All eight set to go to post have raced in the last 17-42 days, so we shouldn't have any fitness issues here and all bar Indestructible have won at least once over 7f, as his two wins have been over 6f and 1m. Only three of the field have raced at Goodwood before with both Marbaan and Kinross having won Gr2 events over course and distance. Pogo is the other to have raced here and although winless in four attempts, he has made the frame three times including twice at Gr2.

Instant Expert tells us that Audience has yet to run on good to soft or soft ground and that Holguin would prefer more rain to come. Kinross won't be too concerned if it dries out or gets a bit wetter and Al Suhail won't want any more rain....

You can quickly see why Kinross is at the top of The Shortlist and the likely favourite here, but the relatively unexposed Isaac Shelby looks well suited here too. Featured horse Kinross has the inside stall and a non-runner was drawn in stall 3, so Al Suhail is effectively drawn in 8 of 8 over a track/trip where horses drawn in stall 1 (Kinross) have won most often on good to soft/soft ground, but that generally speaking a more central draw has suited better...

...and this is backed up by the PRB3 data, which suggests a draw in the first five stalls might be more advantageous...

...but that being drawn higher wouldn't necessarily be a disaster, as the emphasis here seems to more about race tactics, as seen here...

...from which I'm going to say that those who can go hard early, should do that but if you're not a natural front-runner, then you're better off dropping in at the back for a late run for the line. The way this field has approached its most recent contests suggests that Audience and possibly Al Suhail will be setting the tempo...

...with featured runner and favourite Kinross the hold-up horse.

Summary

Kinross is the class horse here and has been running really well in Gr1 races, so this is a step down in quality for him. He's won this race before, Frankie's on board having won 4 times on the horse already, he tops the Instant Expert stats, has the 'plum draw' in stall 1 and his hold-up tactics should be spot on. All in all, I can't see Kinross getting beaten here. The question is this : do we back him at 11/8 or seek value elsewhere? That's entirely your call, I'm afraid, but I can see him going off much shorter, if that's any help to you.

Somewhat predictably, I also think that second favourite Isaac Shelby is the one likely to give Kinross the biggest challenge, but at 9/2, I won't be having an E/W bet. I think this one is already very good as a 3 yr old, but will certainly improve with age. If I am having an E/W bet, it would be the front-running Audience that would carry my money at 10/1. Although he is untested on this anything softer than good ground, he's in good form, this is his trip and he gets on really well with today's jockey. He might well be afforded a soft lead and if so, he could easily hang on for a place.

Racing Insights, Tuesday 25/07/23

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The Shortlist is Tuesday's free Geegeez GOLD feature and it's a simple (usually brief) report highlighting those horses with a largely ‘green’ profile in the Instant Expert Report each day and it covers win or place stats for both the current and the next day's racing.

GREEN is good (33% or better win rate) – worth 3 points
AMBER is quite good (16-32% win rate) – worth 1 point
RED is not so good (0-15% win rate) – worth -1 points
GREY means there is no available data for that factor - worth 0 points

The final column, ‘Score’, is the sum of the previous five ‘colour’ columns, with 15 being an all green profile, and 9 being the lowest score appearing on this report.

HINT: The best bets are not necessarily the highest scores. Rather, they are often the biggest difference between a Shortlist horse and the ‘best of the rest’ in that race.

N.B. Shortlist selections are unlikely to make a profit, at SP at least, to blind backing. Our recommendation has always been that The Shortlist should be a starting point rather than an end in itself. That said, it continues to highlight horses whose chance is better than recent form and its odds might imply.

[Please refer to our User Guide for further information] and here is Tuesday's Shortlist...

...where Al Zaraqaan and Hiconic would be of obvious immediate interest. As ever, the daily feature is complemented by a selection of fully functional racecards opened up to all readers and for Tuesday they cover...

  • 3.20 Southwell
  • 6.38 Ballinrobe
  • 7.50 Chelmsford
  • 8.50 Chelmsford

The two at the top of The Shortlist are both likely to go off quite short in small field contests (4 of Southwell's 6 races have less than 7 runners!), so we'll head to Essex for the 7.50 Chelmsford, a 12-runner, Class 4, 3yo+, A/W handicap over a left handed 1m2f on standard to slow polytrack...

None of these managed to win any of their last two races, but Wild Hurricane and Totnes made the frame last time out whilst Boasty, One For The frog, Mayfair Gold, Semser and The Bay Warrior were all successful three starts ago.

Semser, Jenson Benson, Nasim, Marion's Boy and Wadacre Gomez all step up a class here, whilst The Bay Warrior makes a double step up, which might cause him issues after a poor Class 6 run over course and distance last time out. Likely favourite Totnes, however, was third in a Class 3 contest on her most recent start. She's also one of just two 3yos in the race and as such, gets a handy 9lbs weight allowance, as does Wadacre Gomez.

Wild Hurricane makes just a second appearance in handicap company and wears cheekpieces for the first time whilst it's a debut in a hood for Mayfair Gold, who like Tarbaan, Boasty, Semser, Jenson Benson and The Bay Warrior, is a former course and distance winner. Of the other six runners, Nasim has won here over a mile, whilst Marion/s Boy and Wadacre Gomez have been scored over 1m2f at Lingfield and Newcastle respectively.

Jenson Benson returns from almost eleven weeks off and The Bay Warrior hasn't raced for almost fourteen weeks, but the other ten have all been seen since the start of June with Nasim and Wadacre Gomez having run just a fortnight ago.

In addition to the course/distance wins mentioned above, Instant Expert advises us that field doesn't have a particularly good record on standard to slow A/W and that only five of them have a Class 4 A/W win...

I'd say that Tarbaan edges that, but despite the swathe of red, there aren't too many causes for concern, aside from Marion's Boy only winning 1 of 12 at this level, which is a worry, although it looks like he has made the frame in 3 of his 11 defeats...

Our Draw Analyser says that similar 1m2f contests at Chelmsford haven't really displayed much of a stalls bias...

...because if we said that the figures for stalls 2 & 9 were outliers, then there's really not a great deal of difference along the line, so that must mean that pace is the key here, as it often is at Chelmsford. Shorter trips here have certainly favoured those setting the tempo, but let's see how those races above have panned out via our Pace Analyser...

...and whilst the effect of leading isn't quite a pronounced over this trip, you'd certainly rather be on a front runner than a hold-up type, especially from a place perspective. And if this field's last few runs are anything to go by, then the likely favourite Totnes is going to have her work cut out from the back of the pack...

Summary

Totnes is indeed the early (3.30pm) favourite at a fairly miserly 5/2 with the only open book at Hills. She's got ability, has a handy weight allowance and is running well, but 5/2 is too short for me about a runner destined to have to pass most of her rivals late on if she's to win. I also liked Tarbaan from Instant Expert, he's a former course and distance winner, but concedes weight all round and will also have to pass most of the field if he was to win. He'd make an ideal E/W bet, but not at 6/1!

So, for an E/W bet, i want to focus on the top 5 on the pace chart ie all those with an average score in excess of 2.00 and Boasty leads the way. He's a three-time course and distance, his last six A/W runs have seen him finish 223112. His place stats on Instant Expert were excellent, he'll set the pace here and at 10/1, looks a good E/W option.

Wadacre Gomez started out well, but has been heavily beaten in his last two outings and I'd prefer to see him show some improvement before I put any money on him. Wild Hurricane is unexposed and has finished 332 in his three A/W starts and would be a contender here. He's the 4/1 second favourite, so that's too short for an E/W bet, but he might actually go on and win this with the addition of cheekpieces.

And finally, we have Semser, who won here over course and distance in May before finishing as a runner-up at Goodwood four weeks later. He was somewhat disappointing at Lingfield next/last time out, but he is a former course and distance winner and if things fall right for him, he too could be an E/W option at 12/1, especially with the bookies paying four places here in what looks a decent/competitive race for Class 4.

 

 

Racing Insights, Tuesday 18/07/23

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Tuesday's free offering from the GOLD service is the The Shortlist feature, a simple – and usually brief – report highlighting those horses with a largely ‘green’ profile in the Instant Expert Report each day. It covers win or place stats, and can be viewed for both today’s and tomorrow’s racing.

GREENis good (33% or better win rate) – worth 3 points
AMBERis quite good (16-32% win rate) – worth 1 point
REDis not so good (0-15% win rate) – worth -1 points
GREY means there is no available data for that factor - worth 0 points

The final column, ‘Score’, is the sum of the previous five ‘colour’ columns, with 15 being an all green profile, and 9 being the lowest score appearing on this report.

HINT: The best bets are not necessarily the highest scores. Rather, they are often the biggest difference between a Shortlist horse and the ‘best of the rest’ in that race.

N.B. Shortlist selections are unlikely to make a profit, at SP at least, to blind backing. Our recommendation is – and has always been – that The Shortlist should be a starting point rather than an end in itself. That said, it continues to highlight horses whose chance is better than recent form - and its odds - imply. As ever, please refer to our User Guide for further information!

And this how The Shortlist looks for this Tuesday...

And we do still also have our daily list of 'free' racecards, which are as follows...

  • 2.35 Beverley
  • 7.30 Nottingham
  • 8.20 Killarney
  • 9.00 Nottingham

The contest between the two Southwell runners from TS should be the one to focus on from a Class perspective, but it's only a 5-runner that looks like being a three horse race, so we'll tackle the last race of the night, the 9.00 Nottingham, a moderate-looking, 8-runner, Class 5, 3yo+ flat handicap over a left-handed 1m½f on soft ground...

Not much recent winning form on display here, but both Star Zinc and Jack Daniel won their penultimate outings, whilst Calypso has been knocking on the door with a recent run of form reading 2332. He, along with Classic Speed and Cariad will benefit from an 8lb allowance as the trio of three year olds in this race, with the latter receiving between 10 and 22lbs from her rivals.

She is the only runner stepping up in class here and is one of two females in the race, the other being the top weight Zarabanda. Lion's Dream, Dandy Maestro, Star Zinc and Classic Speed all drop down a class and the latter makes just a secoing handicap appearance almost 10 weeks after his last run.

None of his rivals have been off as long, as they've all raced in the last seven weeks with Cariad having been seen as recently as last Wednesday at Yarmouth; she'll find today's soft ground far different than the seaside good to firm from last time out!

Lion's Dream, Calypso and Classic Speed have yet to win over a similar trip to this one and our sole course winner, Dandy Maestro, has a win and a runner-up finish (2 starts ago) from two efforts over course and distance.

Instant Expert has a limited amount of data, but it does highlight that Jack Daniel is the sole soft ground winner and also one of just three Class 5 flat victors in this field...

...and he looks the pick of the bunch on those albeit small numbers. Such is the lack of relevant data, we should consider the place stats to hopefully suggest who else might like the conditions...

...and I'd probably say Dandy Maestro's hat was now firmly in the ring too. he's drawn centrally in stall 5 just outside Jack Daniel, so it'll now be useful to see if that's a positive or a negative, based on previous past contests under similar conditions here at Nottingham.

The initial indications are that a low draw should be avoided if possible...

...but the PRB3, stall-by-stall and place data seem to suggest that there'll not be a great deal in it from a draw perspective...

Stall 2 doesn't look great, but there's no reason why just one stall should perform so badly, so I'm going to treat that as an anomaly here and move on to see what if any pace is likely to be in the race and if we look at the field's last four outings, we see that the likes of Jack Daniel and Lion's Dream are the most likely front-runners, whilst Star Zinc will probably be the back marker in the early stages...

...and if we look back at those 60-plus races from the draw data, we find that those setting the pace have done best here...

...which is great news for Jack Daniel and Lion's Dream and with a central draw, leading will certainly be the best policy for Jack Daniel...

Dandy Maestro would be best advised to follow Jack Daniel and run like he did here two starts ago, when a runner-up in a higher grade.

Summary

Jack Daniel ticks the most boxes for me, he won two starts ago and has won over this trip. Soft ground won't be an issue and he has the ideal pace/draw setup to score here. The tissue forecast of 11/2 would be very nice indeed, but I suspect we'll have to take a point of more off that price. Dandy Maestro is interesting as a possible E/W pick and the tissue prices of 10/1 do materialise, then it's a yes from me, I wouldn't go lower than 8's on this one.

The biggest danger to either/both of them is the 3yr old Calypso who comes here in fine form (2332) and has that useful weight allowance. Much will depend on how he handles soft ground for the first time, but he should be in the mix here.

Good luck, however you play this one and a quick heads-up that I'm away all day Tuesday, so my next column will appear on Wednesday for Thursday's racing, where Instant Expert will be our free feature.

Racing Insights, Tuesday 11/07/23

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The Shortlist is Tuesday's free Geegeez GOLD feature and it's a simple (usually brief) report highlighting those horses with a largely ‘green’ profile in the Instant Expert Report each day and it covers win or place stats for both the current and the next day's racing.

GREEN is good (33% or better win rate) – worth 3 points
AMBER is quite good (16-32% win rate) – worth 1 point
RED is not so good (0-15% win rate) – worth -1 points
GREY means there is no available data for that factor - worth 0 points

The final column, ‘Score’, is the sum of the previous five ‘colour’ columns, with 15 being an all green profile, and 9 being the lowest score appearing on this report.

HINT: The best bets are not necessarily the highest scores. Rather, they are often the biggest difference between a Shortlist horse and the ‘best of the rest’ in that race.

N.B. Shortlist selections are unlikely to make a profit, at SP at least, to blind backing. Our recommendation has always been that The Shortlist should be a starting point rather than an end in itself. That said, it continues to highlight horses whose chance is better than recent form and its odds might imply.

[Please refer to our User Guide for further information] and here is Tuesday's Shortlist...

...where Mister X and Earls would be of most obvious interest initially. As ever, the daily feature is complemented by a selection of fully functional racecards opened up to all readers and for Tuesday they cover the following...

  • 2.45 Pontefract
  • 3.55 Pontefract
  • 4.15 Wolverhampton
  • 5.15 Tramore

...and with one of the top two runners from The Shortlist running in the best looking race from the free list, it makes sense to have a closer look at Earls and the 3.55 Pontefract, which is a 7-runner, Class 2, 3yo+ flat handicap over a left-handed 6f on good ground, that is already softer in places and more rain is expected...

Bottom weight Kitai is the only LTO winner in the field today and as the sole 3 yr old will also benefit from a 6lb weight allowance. The solitary female in the race is, however up two classes and 5lbs here for a two length success at Carlisle just under a fortnight ago.

None of her rivals even made the frame last time out, but all have at least one win in their most recent form line and in a bid to get a bit more success, Aleezdancer is in first-time blinkers, Earls makes a cheekpieces debut and a visor is now fitted to Aphelios.

All of these are previous 6f winners with the veteran and top-weight Summerghand, Aleezdancer and Kitai all former course and distance winners. Featured horse Earl is coming off a short break of almost seven weeks, but the others have all raced in the last 8 to 19 days.

All seven have at least one Flat win on good or good to soft ground, but according to Instant Expert, just three have won a flat race at Class 2...

From a win perspective, Summerghand would probably want quicker ground that this, but he has actually won twice on soft ground too, so all might not be lost there especially now that he's 2lbs lower than when winning the 24-runner Ayr Gold Cup last September and he did win a Listed contest at Lingfield in February. Aleezdancer may well be 1 from 11 at Class 2, he has finished 4313 in the four sub-£20k Class 2 contests, so it's not a given that he might be outclassed here and when we look at place form, it's Bay Breeze who looks the weakest...

...whilst it's hard to ignore Aphelios' OR of 89, some 14lbs higher than his win at Carlisle last August, although it would be unfair of me not to mention that he did win on the A/W at Kempton off 84 in October and was placed next time out at the same track/class/distance off 88.

Our Draw Analyser suggests that those drawn centrally fare worse than runners drawn either side of them...

...and much is made about the "Ponty Golden Corridor from stalls 1 & 2", but closer analysis shows that stall 6 is also a decent place to run from...

...I'm assuming that's because they can hit the turn a little wider and take the bend at a greater speed, somewhat akin to an F1 racing line. Earls & Kitai will be pleased to have got the inside draw, but old warrior Summerghand could be well primed from box six, based on the above. Much will, of course, depend on how runners approach this race, because a 6f at Ponty certainly favours those most willing to get on with things from the off...

Sadly, this bunch aren't exactly the early pace types as shown from our pace/draw heat map below...

...with only It Just Takes Time having more 3+ scores than 2 or under. This suggests we're going to get a falsely run race here, which will play into the hands of those who might well have been left behind had there been any significant early real pace.

Summary

It's not obvious where to go here, aside from discarding  Bay Breeze, based on Instant Expert. I suppose Aphelios' weight is too much of a concern for me to feel comfortable backing him and whilst Kitai won well recently, she's up in class and weight and a price of 15/8 or 2/1 doesn't seem to represent great value to me, although I'm sure she'll be in the mix.

This brings me to Summerghand, who I do like despite his form so far this summer, His mark is now dropping to below his last win, he gets on well with jockey Danny Tudhope and he did win here over course and distance on his only previous visit, 5/1 looks more than fair to me, so that's where I'll be heading. Featured horse Earls makes a UK debut and is probably too high in the weights right now, so is probably left watched, but Bet365's price of 8/1 about Aleezdancer was interesting. He's now only 3lbs higher than his last win and with his jockey taking 7lbs off, he could spring a surprise here. He has gone well enough several times under similar conditions and whilst I don't think he'll beat Summerghand, he'd not be a bad E/W bet, especially with most firms paying three places.

Racing Insights, Tuesday 04/07/23

/in /by

The Shortlist is Tuesday's free Geegeez GOLD feature and it's a simple (usually brief) report highlighting those horses with a largely ‘green’ profile in the Instant Expert Report each day and it covers win or place stats for both the current and the next day's racing.

GREEN is good (33% or better win rate) – worth 3 points
AMBER is quite good (16-32% win rate) – worth 1 point
RED is not so good (0-15% win rate) – worth -1 points
GREY means there is no available data for that factor - worth 0 points

The final column, ‘Score’, is the sum of the previous five ‘colour’ columns, with 15 being an all green profile, and 9 being the lowest score appearing on this report.

HINT: The best bets are not necessarily the highest scores. Rather, they are often the biggest difference between a Shortlist horse and the ‘best of the rest’ in that race.

N.B. Shortlist selections are unlikely to make a profit, at SP at least, to blind backing. Our recommendation has always been that The Shortlist should be a starting point rather than an end in itself. That said, it continues to highlight horses whose chance is better than recent form and its odds might imply.

[Please refer to our User Guide for further information] and here is Tuesday's Shortlist...

...none of which really grab my attention. Thankfully, as ever, the daily feature is complemented by a selection of fully functional racecards opened up to all readers and for Tuesday they cover the following...

  • 3.17 Hamilton
  • 3.27 Brighton
  • 3.45 Tipperary
  • 7.20 Roscommon
  • 9.00 Ffos Las

...from which, despite the small field, the 3.17 Hamilton looks the best. It's a 6-runner, Class 2, 3yo+ flat handicap over a right handed 1m½f on good to soft ground...

The early (just after 2pm) opening show suggests that it could be a tight contest, with only Barley considered to be here to make up the numbers...

...and that might partially be because he's up in class here after three fairly poor efforts at Class 3. He is eased a pound, but you have to worry about his chances here. Top weight Austrian Theory is also up in class, despite only finishing 7th of 8 last time out, although he did win at this class/trip two starts ago.

Bottom weight Maysong is the sole LTO winner, having beaten the re-opposing pair Eilean Dubh (3rd) and Repertoire by 0.5 and 4 lengths respectively, but this pair are 9lbs and 12lbs better off here today, as Maysong isn't riden by his 7lb claimer. Repertoire did win over a mile at Class 4 three starts ago, but has toiled in this grade since.

Both EileanDubh and Barley wear first-time tongue ties, whilst it's a cheekpiece debut for Fantastic Fox, who along with Austrian Theory and Eilean Dubh are our three course and distance winners. The other three have yet to win here at Hamilton but have all scored over a similar trip.

All six have raced in the last 11 to 32 days, so no rustiness expected, nor are any thrown back in too quickly and we've no three year olds to muddy the waters with their weight allowances!

Further stats are available via Instant Expert, which says that only three of these have raced on good to soft ground before with just one successful, And we also find that Fantastic Fox's turf record at Class 2 really isn't very good...

The entire field are racing off marks 2 to 4lbs higher than their last winning marks, so there's little in it there. The Fox's 0/11 at Class 2 is a concern, as is Repertoire's 0 from 9. The other issue is Maysong failing to win any of seven attempts on good to soft ground, but he has managed to make the frame a few times...

...and whilst his win stats make me wary of backing him, his place data is probably the best on show, so a possible placer here? Mind you, unless something tells me to get on Barley, there'll be no E/W bet today, as 5/1 isn't long enough for me. Austrian Theory won this race last year but that was on good to firm, where he is 3 from 8 as opposed to his 0 from 11 elsewhere. Repertoire is the clear weak link on Instant Expert.

I don't expect any of these to be handed an advantage by the draw, as previous past contests here have gone like this...

...whilst the pace stats for those same races have really favoured those keen to get on with things...

...hold-up horses tend to struggle here from win a win and a place perspective and that's yet more bad news for Repertoire, based on his last four outings...

Summary

Repertoire was poor on Instant Expert and might well get left behind, based on his pace profile, so he's out. Maysong beat Eilean Dubh by half a length last time out and scored well on IE, but he's 9lbs worse off here and is another who might get outpaced, so he's gone too.

Austrian Theory won this last year and will probably attempt to win from the front here, but his record on anything slower than good to firm is abject and he has a tendency to run out of steam on these slower surfaces. All of which leaves us with three. Barley is unfancied by the early market and he's up in class after a series of poor runs in a lower grade. Surely he's not suddenly winning here?

So, almost by default, I've got Eilean Dubh and Fantastic Fox left to deal with and the latter simply isn't a Class 2 runner based on his past efforts, so I have to agree with the bookies by saying Eilean Dubh is the one to beat. Don't get me wrong, he's no standout here, but he's arguably the "least bad". A 9lb pull for a half length defeat is really beneficial and if he tracks the leader(s) as expected, he should win. 5/2 is probably about the right price, but I won't be lumping on in what looks a fairly mediocre race for a Class 2.

Next best might well be Maysong. Yeah, he's that 9lbs worse off here, but with an LTO win and two wins, two places from his last six, he might be the one for your forecast/exacta.

Racing Insights, Tuesday 27/06/23

/in /by

Apologies for a lack of Insights for Monday, I was at a surprise wedding on Sunday, but I'm back now and The Shortlist is Tuesday's free Geegeez GOLD feature and it's a simple (usually brief) report highlighting those horses with a largely ‘green’ profile in the Instant Expert Report each day and it covers win or place stats for both the current and the next day's racing.

GREEN is good (33% or better win rate) – worth 3 points
AMBER is quite good (16-32% win rate) – worth 1 point
RED is not so good (0-15% win rate) – worth -1 points
GREY means there is no available data for that factor - worth 0 points

The final column, ‘Score’, is the sum of the previous five ‘colour’ columns, with 15 being an all green profile, and 9 being the lowest score appearing on this report.

HINT: The best bets are not necessarily the highest scores. Rather, they are often the biggest difference between a Shortlist horse and the ‘best of the rest’ in that race.

N.B. Shortlist selections are unlikely to make a profit, at SP at least, to blind backing. Our recommendation has always been that The Shortlist should be a starting point rather than an end in itself. That said, it continues to highlight horses whose chance is better than recent form and its odds might imply.

[Please refer to our User Guide for further information] and here is Tuesday's Shortlist...

...where Casilli would be of most initial obvious interest. As ever, the daily feature is complemented by a selection of fully functional racecards opened up to all readers and for Tuesday they cover the following...

  • 5.20 Beverley
  • 8.05 Newton Abbot
  • 8.25 Newbury
  • 8.40 Newton Abbot

And I think I'll have a look at the 6yr old mare Casilli from The Shortlist. She's the sole female in the 4.15 Beverley, which is an 8-runner, Class 4, 4yo+ flat handicap over a right-handed 1m2f on good to firm ground...

Bashful is the form horse here, having won his last two, but only Strawman, Freak Out and Shine On Brendan are winless in at least five (9, 9 & 10 respectively to be precise) outings.

Joint top weights Westernesse and Strawman are the only two to have raced at this grade last time out, as featured runner Casilli now drops down from Class 3 with the remainder of the field all stepping up from Class 5. This will be Bobby's Blessing's handicap debut after just two starts over 7½f, including a win here on debut, but this is a big step up in trip.

Westernesse and Shine On Brendan have won at neither track nor trip, but Bashful and Freak Out are distance winners at Newcastle, whilst Strawman, Casilli (of course) and Frankendael are all former course and distance winners.

Strawman and Bashful both raced as recently as last Wednesday and the entire field have been out in the last four weeks, so there shouldn't be any rustiness on display. Instant Expert will, of course, show why Casilli is on The Shortlist, but it also tells us that half of the field have won on good to firm ground, just three have won at Class 4 on turf and that a couple of these have a really poor record at the trip...

So the concerns here are...

GOING : Strawman, Freak Out & Shine On Brendan
CLASS : Freak Out
DISTANCE : Bashful & Freak Out

And before I even look at the place stats, I'm crossing Freak Out off the list! And having looked at the place stats...

...I'm also ruling Frankendael out of my thoughts, leaving me with runners in stalls 1 and 2 plus 5 to 8 inclusive for a contest that has, in the past, favoured those drawn in the lower half of the draw...

...which wouldn't normally be great news for Casilli drawn widest in #8, but those races show that horses drawn higher than stall 7 have done pretty well too...

Our stats for these races say that pace is more of a deal breaker than the draw, though, with a clear sign that those willing to set the fractions ultimately get rewarded...

Prominent runners do better than average too, but any further back in the field makes life difficult, which won't be good news for the likes of Casilli if her last four runs are anything to go by...

However, here lies a problem, because they can't all run to a pace score of 2.50 or lower, one (or more) of them will have to set the tempo of the race and if they go at a dawdle, then those most used to coming from off the pace might well be the ones to side with.

Summary

The draw stats didn't really give me much help, whilst the pace data suggests the possibility of a falsely run race. However, I can see why Westernesse is the current 5/2 favourite. He does tend to race up with the pace (ignore LTO, he stumbled out of the stalls and was awkwardly away), he's got a good low draw and has eight top three finishes on the bounce.

Do I want to back him at 5/2?  Not really, even though he's the likeliest winner in my eyes. To be honest, I'd want him to be a point (or more!) longer in the market, so I'll leave him alone. That, of course, doesn't mean that you have to. Bobby's Blessing is next best at a high of 7/2 and that also seems a bit skinny for a horse with just two runs under his belt and now up in trip by 2.5 furlongs, so I'll skip him too in favour of an 11/1 E/W bet with Skybet (10's elsewhere) on The Shortlist horse Casilli. Yeah, she's not in prime form, but her draw is fine, her hold-up approach might not be horrific in a pace-less contest and she's best suited by conditions. She was a little more than two lengths outside the placings here over course and distance last time out, but is now 2lbs and 1 class lower here and might well be the value option.

Racing Insights, Tuesday 20/06/23

/in /by

Tuesday's free offering from the GOLD service is the The Shortlist feature, a simple – and usually brief – report highlighting those horses with a largely ‘green’ profile in the Instant Expert Report each day. It covers win or place stats, and can be viewed for both today’s and tomorrow’s racing.

GREEN is good (33% or better win rate) – worth 3 points
AMBER is quite good (16-32% win rate) – worth 1 point
RED is not so good (0-15% win rate) – worth -1 points
GREY means there is no available data for that factor - worth 0 points

The final column, ‘Score’, is the sum of the previous five ‘colour’ columns, with 15 being an all green profile, and 9 being the lowest score appearing on this report.

HINT: The best bets are not necessarily the highest scores. Rather, they are often the biggest difference between a Shortlist horse and the ‘best of the rest’ in that race.

N.B. Shortlist selections are unlikely to make a profit, at SP at least, to blind backing. Our recommendation is – and has always been – that The Shortlist should be a starting point rather than an end in itself. That said, it continues to highlight horses whose chance is better than recent form - and its odds - imply. As ever, please refer to our User Guide for further information!

And this how The Shortlist looks for this Tuesday...

...which, as you'd expect, is heavily Ascot-oriented. We do still also have our daily list of 'free' racecards, which are as follows...

  • 2.20 Thirsk
  • 2.55 Thirsk
  • 3.40 Ascot
  • 7.00 Brighton
  • 7.15 Beverley

The 3.40 Ascot is on the 'free' list and is the second richest race of the day. It also features three runners from The Shortlist, but at 19-runners, it's not for me, even if SkyBet are paying 6 places! Instead, I'll take the last of the 'free' races, a decent standard sprint at one of my favourite tracks; the 7.15 Beverley is an 8-runner, Class 3, 3yo+ flat handicap over a straight 5f on good ground and here's how they'll line up for the "Beverley Speedy Handicap"...

No LTO winners here, but top weight Hiya Maite was third after winning his penultimate race, whilst Embour, California Gem and Manila Scouse have all won inside five runs and Embour is denoted as a fast finsher, ideal for this kind of contest! Only Spring Is Sprung and Ventura Flame are winless in seven (8 & 13 respectively if anyone's counting). All eight have at least one 5f win under thier belts and both California Gem and bottom weight Ventura Flame are former course and distance winners.

Only half of the field ran at Class 3 last time out; Spring Is Sprung was 4th of 14 at Class 2, beaten by a length at 33/1, whilst Manila Scouse (3rd of 7), Dandy Dinmont (5th of 9) and Ventura Flame (5th of 17 over C&D) all step up from Class 4 and it's hard to see any of that trio improving for a step up. Most of them do have the benefit of a recent run; half a dozen have raced in the last month, Calfornia Gem was seen six weeks ago, but Embour hasn't raced for nearly 16 weeks now and might well need the run.

Embour has, however, won three Class 2 contests on the Flat, according to Instant Expert, whilst under today's conditions, we see that he's the only previous Class 3 winner too. Just four of the field have won on good ground and in what looks a fairly modest set of numbers, California Gem probably makes most appeal...

Embour looks weak across the board, but is now 8lbs lower than his last win. Devil's Angel's numbers are steady, aside from being a Class 4 horse, Dandy Dinmont hasn't shone over the minimum trip and has fared little better (1 from 6) at 6f and is still 7lbs higher than his last win, whilst Ventura Flame has a good record on good to firm ground and also on soft/heayy, but has shown very little in between the two extremes! I'll consult the place stats, in case any of these have been 'unlucky' in their defeats...

...which does, in fairness, put some of these in a better light, but Spring Is Sprung isn't great over 5f and Ventura Flame still hasn't performed on good ground, but several of these are still in it, as we turn to draw and pace, where I suspect the emphasis will be on the latter over a straight 5f! Now, I wouldn't normally expect the draw to have too much of an influence over a straight five, but stalls 1 and 2 have done better than par here...

...albeit off a fairly small sample size. The 'perceived' (I remain to be persuaded) bias is less pronounced when it comes to making the frame, though and that data is possibly more reliable. I am, however, pretty confident that those races used for the draw data will tell me that the "Speedy Handicap" is likely to be won by a front runner, but I'm not always right, so let's check...

...and I think that's fairly conclusive. Leaders win most often, they place most often and they convert the highest percentage of places into wins, so we want a horse that'll be sharply away and based on the field's most recent efforts...

...the consistent Hiya Maite looks like he might well try to win this from the front. Embour was, of course, noted on the card as a fast finisher, but you'd have to be from where's he's going to be halfway!

Summary

Easy call for me here, as I'm with Hiya Maite. He's in good consistent (3 wins and 4 places from his last 8) form, runs off the same mark as a narrow defeat over 6f LTO when headed late on and looks like grabbing an easy lead here. he could prove difficult to peg back and at 7/2, there could still be a bit of value in the price.

As for the places, I don't like Embour, Dandy Dinmont nor Devil's Angel, but any two from the other four could get in here. None will be at what I'd want for an E/W bet, so I won't be backing them, but if pushed for one for the forecast etc, recent C&D winner Ventura Flame receives weight all round and might be the answer.

Racing Insights, Tuesday 13/06/23

/in /by

The Shortlist is Tuesday's free Geegeez GOLD feature and it's a simple (usually brief) report highlighting those horses with a largely ‘green’ profile in the Instant Expert Report each day and it covers win or place stats for both the current and the next day's racing.

GREEN is good (33% or better win rate) – worth 3 points
AMBER is quite good (16-32% win rate) – worth 1 point
RED is not so good (0-15% win rate) – worth -1 points
GREY means there is no available data for that factor - worth 0 points

The final column, ‘Score’, is the sum of the previous five ‘colour’ columns, with 15 being an all green profile, and 9 being the lowest score appearing on this report.

HINT: The best bets are not necessarily the highest scores. Rather, they are often the biggest difference between a Shortlist horse and the ‘best of the rest’ in that race.

N.B. Shortlist selections are unlikely to make a profit, at SP at least, to blind backing. Our recommendation has always been that The Shortlist should be a starting point rather than an end in itself. That said, it continues to highlight horses whose chance is better than recent form and its odds might imply.

[Please refer to our User Guide for further information]

Here are my qualifiers on Tuesday's Shortlist...

...and as ever, the daily feature is complemented by a selection of fully functional racecards opened up to all readers and for Tuesday they cover...

  • 1.50 Brighton
  • 2.10 Salisbury
  • 2.30 Southwell
  • 3.00 Southwell
  • 4.40 Salisbury
  • 5.10 Salisbury

...and the highest rated from those two sets of races is the last of the free ones, the 5.10 Salisbury, an 8-runner, Class 4, 3yo+ fillies flat handicap over a left handed 1m2f on good to firm ground...

Three of these (Spirit of the Bay, Alba Longa & Spring Fever all won last time out, whilst Haughty is the only maiden in the field, albeit off just five starts. half of the field ran at this Class 4 level last time out, but Timeless Melody drops in from Class 2 and haughty is down one class, whilst Alba Longa and Spring fever both step up one level.

In a fairly inexperienced field, half of them (Timeless Melody, Alba Longa, Spring Fever & Gentle Whinny) run in handicap company for just the second time and none of the field have won here at Brighton before. That said, only Totnes has actually been here before! Spirit of the Bay, Spring Fever and Dayzee have at least won over this trip.

Bottom weight Haughty might need the run as she comes off a nine-month break, but her rivals have all race at least once this term. We''re not getting too much from Instant Expert today, as the field only have 51 previous outings between them and top weight Spirit of the Bay accounts for 21 of those races, but let's see what data we do have...

...all fairly self-explanatory and the one catching my eye is Spirit of the Bay, especially from a place perspective. She's top weight and drawn second widest in stall 7 and whilst the draw stats suggest those drawn lowest would fare best, the raw data actually says there's not really a massive bias at play here...

...and that stall 7 has done as well as any other berthing...

So, it's not a long race and the ground is quick with no real draw bias, so PACE might well be the key here and from those races above that we used for the draw data, we see that...

...the further forward you race, the better your chances of winning/making the frame, which based on this field's more recent efforts...

...is the fly in Spirit of the Bay's ointment and the ones best off here are probably the first four named.

Summary

Largely inexperienced horses with little relevant race data. The draw is unlikely to affect the race and there's not actually that much pace early on. Spring Fever looks the most likely winner on form/pace, but at odds of 7/4 to 15/8, I'm not really interested in backing her.

Up to the pace section, I was looking to back Spirit of the Bay to make the frame but the pace stats are troubling. That said, she ran really well at Haydock last time and easily has the best place stats in this field. had she been in 8/1 to 11/1 kind of price, I'd probably have left her alone, based on pace as she might need the contest to fall apart ahead of her, but at 14/1 I've been tempted into an E/W tickle.