Tag Archive for: The Shortlist

Racing Insights, Tuesday 23/01/24

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The Shortlist is Tuesday's free Geegeez GOLD feature and it's a simple (usually brief) report highlighting those horses with a largely ‘green’ profile in the Instant Expert Report each day and it covers win or place stats for both the current and the next day's racing.

GREEN is good (33% or better win rate) – worth 3 points
AMBER is quite good (16-32% win rate) – worth 1 point
RED is not so good (0-15% win rate) – worth -1 points
GREY means there is no available data for that factor - worth 0 points

The final column, ‘Score’, is the sum of the previous five ‘colour’ columns, with 15 being an all green profile, and 9 being the lowest score appearing on this report.

HINT: The best bets are not necessarily the highest scores. Rather, they are often the biggest difference between a Shortlist horse and the ‘best of the rest’ in that race.

N.B. Shortlist selections are unlikely to make a profit, at SP at least, to blind backing. Our recommendation has always been that The Shortlist should be a starting point rather than an end in itself. That said, it continues to highlight horses whose chance is better than recent form and its odds might imply.

[Please refer to our User Guide for further information] and here is Tuesday's Shortlist...

...where the first two would be of most obvious interest initially. As ever, the daily feature is complemented by a selection of fully functional racecards opened up to all readers and for Tuesday they cover the following...

  • 2.55 Down Royal
  • 4.20 Newbury
  • 6.00 Southwell
  • 8.00 Southwell

And I suppose it makes most sense to focus on the last of those four races, where Crimson Angel and The Bell Conductor from The Shortlist will take on six others in the 8.00 Southwell, a Class 4, 4yo+ A/W handicap over a straight 5f on standard tapeta...

None of these won last time out, but both Evocative Spark and Reigning Profit finished third. Mondammej and Love Your Work are the only ones without a win in their last seven outings, arriving here on losing runs of 29 & 16 races respectively!

Love Your Work's chances of breaking that cold spell are lessened by a step up in class, just as Reigning Profit does, but The Bell Conductor and Lihou drop a class whilst Revenite drops down two levels, but hasn't raced for seven months so will probably need the run.

That lay-off aside, the field have all been seen in action in the last six weeks with Mondammej's latest defeat coming just a week ago. yet despite his long losing run, he has previously won over this trip, unlike Revenite, Evocative Spark and Love Your Work. The latter has, however, won on this track over both 7f and a mile whilst our other three previous Southwell winners (The Bell Conductor, the fast-finishing Lihou and Crimson Angel) have all scored over course and distance...

As you'd expect, our two runners from The Shortlist, The Bell Conductor and Crimson Angel, feature prominently on Instant Expert...

...where the vulnerable runner looks like being Reigning Profit with a 2 from 14 A/W record at both standard going and 5f. Love Your Work is 0 from 13 at this grade and that's another concern for those hoping he'll break that long losing run. And with just one placed finish from those 13 Class 4 A/W defeats...

...Love Your Work joins Reigning Profit and Revenite in my discard pile, despite his apparent decent record (7 wins, 7 places from 24) here at Southwell. That record, however, is all at 7f and a mile and with him being a career 2 from 24 shorter than a mile, it's a no from me.

There's no real advantage to be gained from the draw here, not that you'd expect there to be over a straight 5f sprint, although the draw thirds suggest low-drawn runners haven't fared as well as par score...

Yet, if we consider actual stall-by-stall data...

...there really is very little in it and I'd be very surprised if the draw cost any runner this or any other Southwell 5f contest. Pace/tactics , however, are a totally different kettle of fish with a distinct advantage offered to those quickest away...

...which means that the following graphic should contain few shocks...

Yet strangely, there's a distinct lack of early pace shown by this field in their last few outings...

...with only The Bell Conductor and Reigning Profit likely to burst out.

Summary

Pace supposedly wins the race here at Southwell over 5f, but neither The Bell Conductor nor Reigning Profit scream "back me!" The former has struggled for form of late, whilst the latter made little appeal from Instant Expert. The Bell Conductor is 3 from 5 over course and distance but was well beaten here last time out and even at 14/1 E/W, I'm struggling to convince myself to 'stick a couple of quid on' and I don't fancy Reigning Profit, especially as a 3/1 fav!

Mondammej is next in the market at 7/2, but he's unreliable from a win perspective having lost 29 on the bounce since November 2021. The rst of the field have a very similar pace profile to each other and if I was to pick one from those likely to be slower away, it would be Crimson Angel from The Shortlist. She's still relatively unexposed, she's 1 from 1 here, 2 from 5 over the trip and 2 from 3 under today's jockey. She's not a shoo-in by any means, but at Hills' 15/2 offered at 4pm, Crimson Angel is my idea of an E/W bet.

 

Racing Insights, Tuesday 16/01/24

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The Shortlist is Tuesday's free Geegeez GOLD feature and it's a simple (usually brief) report highlighting those horses with a largely ‘green’ profile in the Instant Expert Report each day and it covers win or place stats for both the current and the next day's racing.

GREEN is good (33% or better win rate) – worth 3 points
AMBER is quite good (16-32% win rate) – worth 1 point
RED is not so good (0-15% win rate) – worth -1 points
GREY means there is no available data for that factor - worth 0 points

The final column, ‘Score’, is the sum of the previous five ‘colour’ columns, with 15 being an all green profile, and 9 being the lowest score appearing on this report.

HINT: The best bets are not necessarily the highest scores. Rather, they are often the biggest difference between a Shortlist horse and the ‘best of the rest’ in that race.

N.B. Shortlist selections are unlikely to make a profit, at SP at least, to blind backing. Our recommendation has always been that The Shortlist should be a starting point rather than an end in itself. That said, it continues to highlight horses whose chance is better than recent form and its odds might imply.

[Please refer to our User Guide for further information] and here is Tuesday's Shortlist...

...where neither generate obvious immediate interest. As ever, the daily feature is complemented by a selection of fully functional racecards opened up to all readers and for this Tuesday they cover the following...

  • 1.15 Plumpton
  • 2.50 Dundalk
  • 4.35 Dundalk
  • 5.10 Dundalk

I'm not a big fan of Irish A/W racing and that Plumpton race is a Novice affair, so I'll swerve that. There is, however, a veterans staying chase on the same card which might be interesting, so let's have a quick look at the 2.25 Plumpton, an 8-runner, Class 3, 10yo+ handicap chase over a left-handed trip of what will be just over 3m2½f after rail movements on largely good ground...

No LTO winners on display here, but Iconoc Muddle and Trincomalee were runners-up. Mind you, I'm not sure the latter's run is too relevant as he hasn't raced for some 635 days since that effort and only Commanche Red (682 days) has been away longer and you'd have to think these guys would need the run.

Elsewhere only I See You Well, Shanty Alley and Burrows Park are winless in seven (8, 13 and 8 to be exact), whilst both Domaine de L'isle and Juniper have failed to finish three of their last four, although the latter had won his previous three!

Domaine de L'isle is actually down two classes here, but I See You Well is up a level, despite his losing run. We know that two of the field haven't raced in 21 months or longer, but aside from Juniper's three month absence, the remainder have all raced in the last four weeks, so most should be race ready for a race where only Iconic Muddle and Commanche Red have yet to win over a similar trip, but both have won on this track before, as has Trincomalee, whilst I See You Well is 2 from 2 over course and distance and 3 from 4 over 3m2f here with Instant Expert looking like this...

...where I See You Well has the best set of figures and the most concerns surround Shanty Alley at class/trip, although none of these exactly set the world alight, even from a place perspective...

From a pace perspective, you're probably going to want to be on a horse that's relatively keen to get on with things...

and I suspect that Burrows Park and Shanty Alley will attempt to set the tone of the race...

...if their last four runs are anything to go by.

Summary

The two horses I like most are Iconic Muddle after his most recent run and I See You Well based on Instant Expert, but neither have a great pace profile for this contest. That said, those who head the pace charts fall down on other areas; Burrows Park is winless in 8 and has no form under these conditions, whilst Shanty Alley looked the worst on Instant Expert and has won just 2 of 22 over fences.

Juniper and Domaine de L'isle have been pulled up in three of their last four, whilst Commanche Red and Trincomalee will probably need the run which brings me back to Iconic Muddle and I See You Well, having found reasons not to back the other six, which is sometimes how it works.

I See You Well was available at 11/1 at 5.55pm on Monday and that could be a nice E/W price about a horse who loves it here at Plumpton (6 wins from 13 overall), whilst Iconic Muddle would be my preferred winner and 4/1 seems fair.

Racing Insights, Tuesday 09/01/24

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The Shortlist is Tuesday's free Geegeez GOLD feature and it's a simple (usually brief) report highlighting those horses with a largely ‘green’ profile in the Instant Expert Report each day and it covers win or place stats for both the current and the next day's racing.

GREEN is good (33% or better win rate) – worth 3 points
AMBER is quite good (16-32% win rate) – worth 1 point
RED is not so good (0-15% win rate) – worth -1 points
GREY means there is no available data for that factor - worth 0 points

The final column, ‘Score’, is the sum of the previous five ‘colour’ columns, with 15 being an all green profile, and 9 being the lowest score appearing on this report.

HINT: The best bets are not necessarily the highest scores. Rather, they are often the biggest difference between a Shortlist horse and the ‘best of the rest’ in that race.

N.B. Shortlist selections are unlikely to make a profit, at SP at least, to blind backing. Our recommendation has always been that The Shortlist should be a starting point rather than an end in itself. That said, it continues to highlight horses whose chance is better than recent form and its odds might imply.

[Please refer to our User Guide for further information]

Here are my qualifiers on Tuesday's Shortlist...

...where Autumn Return is of obvious immediate interest. I suspect he'll be a fairly warm favourite in a 6-runner contest, so I'm grateful that as ever, the daily feature is complemented by a selection of fully functional racecards opened up to all readers and for Tuesday they cover...

  • 12.55 Exeter
  • 1.55 Exeter
  • 2.10 Market Rasen

The abandonment of Exeter has left us a bit thin on the ground and the free race at Market Rasen is only a 5-runner Class 3 affair, so we'll head to the relative safety of the A/W for the day's highest-rated race, the 7.00 Southwell, a 13-runner, Class 2, 4yo+ A/W handicap over a left-handed 7f on standard tapeta...

Doctor Khan Junior is our sole LTO winner and he has won four of his last six. Intervention was a runner-up on his last outing after four consecutive victories, whilst Greatgadian, Zip, Chuzzlewit, Follow Your Heart, Gulliver and Starshiba have all won at least one of their last seven.

Stone Soldier, the fast-finishing Gulliver and Stashiba are all up one class here, whilst the in-form duo of Intervention & Doctor Khan Junior both step up two levels for a race that sees the out of sorts Trumble make a second debut for David Loughnane, after two runs away in Ireland for Claire O'Connell.

Only Excel Power and Greatgadian have yet to win over 7f, whilst Lord of the Lodge, Stone Soldier, Intervention and Zip have all scored over course and distance. Gulliver's 7f wins have been at Lingfield (A/W) and at York on the Flat, but he's 2 from 2 here over 6f and this is shown on the stats created by our Instant Expert...

...that also highlights his lack of wins at this grade and trip on the A/W. Misty Grey makes a course debut here under what looks like favourable conditions if he gets this track first time up. In fact, most of these have decent enough records under the current conditions, although Zip has struggled to win at Class 2.

The draw stats from previous 7f races on the tapeta here have favoured those drawn lower than halfway...

...which isn't the best duo for our in-form duo of Intervention & Doctor Khan Junior, who both have to race from the widest stalls as well as step up two classes. Gulliver and Misty grey seem to have the best of the draw from stalls 1 and 2, but they look set to approach this contest in very different ways. If we look back over this field's last three runs, we see that Gulliver is a confirmed hold-up horses and that Misty Grey had led once and raced prominently once in his last three...

...and that Lord of the Lodge, Excel Power and Intervention look like the main pace-setters here. If we refer back to those 50+ races we used to assume that a low draw was better than a high one, we can see that those horses willing to get on with it early have enjoyed the greatest success...

The three main pace-setters are actually drawn in stalls 8, 11 and 13 and it's unusual to have many leaders from wide draws here. Those attempting it have done well, though, as shown by our pace/draw heat map...

...which does seem to suggest that the draw might not necessarily mean that Intervention can't go well here.

Summary

Doctor Khan Junior is in great form and can overcome a high draw if getting a tow into the race by Intervention just on his inside and I fancy both of these to continue their fine form and make the frame (4 places here), whilst at the other end of the scales, Misty Grey looks to also have a great chance. I'd take all three to make the frame here and if pushed for a fourth runner to join them, Id' probably be looking at the likes of Lord of the Lodge to try and hang in at the front for as long as he can.

Of the four I like Intervention the most and 15/2 looks an interesting price, whilst a longer priced horse who might outrun his odds could be the 16/1 Gulliver.

Racing Insights, Tuesday 19/12/2023

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The Shortlist is Tuesday's free Geegeez GOLD feature and it's a simple (usually brief) report highlighting those horses with a largely ‘green’ profile in the Instant Expert Report each day and it covers win or place stats for both the current and the next day's racing.

GREEN is good (33% or better win rate) – worth 3 points
AMBER is quite good (16-32% win rate) – worth 1 point
RED is not so good (0-15% win rate) – worth -1 points
GREY means there is no available data for that factor - worth 0 points

The final column, ‘Score’, is the sum of the previous five ‘colour’ columns, with 15 being an all green profile, and 9 being the lowest score appearing on this report.

HINT: The best bets are not necessarily the highest scores. Rather, they are often the biggest difference between a Shortlist horse and the ‘best of the rest’ in that race.

N.B. Shortlist selections are unlikely to make a profit, at SP at least, to blind backing. Our recommendation has always been that The Shortlist should be a starting point rather than an end in itself. That said, it continues to highlight horses whose chance is better than recent form and its odds might imply.

[Please refer to our User Guide for further information]

Here are my qualifiers on Tuesday's Shortlist...

...where Queen of Ipanema must be worth at least a quick look. As ever, the daily feature is complemented by a selection of fully functional racecards opened up to all readers and for Tuesday they cover...

  • 12.20 Wincanton
  • 1.10 Fakenham
  • 2.40 Fakenham
  • 2.50 Wincanton

I do like to try and marry the daily feature with the free list where possible and today we're able to do so with Pilsdon Pen, who runs in the 2.50 Wincanton, a 6-runner, Class 4, 4yo+ handicap chase over an extended 2m4f on good to soft ground, that will be soft in places...

Pilsdon Pen won here over course and distance last time out, making him the only one to have won his last outing. Hall Lane was a runner-up, whilst Harjo also made the frame, although he has yet to win any of his six races under Rules. Midnight Midge, Harlem Soul and Pilsdon Pen have all won two of their last seven, Hall Lane won five starts ago and Walk In The Wild won seven races back; he now sports cheekpieces for the first time.

Hall Lane and Pilsdon Pen both ran 26 days ago and their rivals have all raced in the last two months. Midnight Midge and Harlem Soul drop down a class here and Walk In the Wild steps up a level. Harjo is the only one of the six yet to win over a similar trip and three of his rivals (Midnight Midge, Harlem Soul and Pilsdon Pen) have won over course and distance, which leads us nicely into Instant Expert...

...where Hall Lane and Harjo look inexperienced, Midnight Midge looks like he might struggle, but Harlem Soul, Pilsdon Pen and Walk In The Wild all looking well suited by conditions, especially Harlem Soul. A quick look at the place data from those above races doesn't suggest that Midnight Midge has been unlucky...

...but Hall Lane & Harjo's sole efforts carry promise. Our Pace Analyser suggests that we might want be on a horse keen to get on with things...

...which based on this field's last few outings...

...would steer you more towards Walk In The Wild and Harjo as opposed to Harlem Soul and Hall Lane. The ground is soft in places and we should note that only Pilsdon Pen and Walk In The Wild have any soft ground form.

Summary

I don't much like Midnight Midge from Instant Expert and Harlem Soul has been beaten by 68 and 34 lengths in his two starts this term. Hall Lane was second on his chase debut recently despite coming off the back of a 228-day absence and he had Prairie Wolf half a length behind him in third and this horse won a 12-runner, Class 4, 2m4½f handicap chase on good to soft ground at Doncaster last Friday, so that's promising, if he comes on for having had a run and if the form holds out.

Harjo has yet to win under Rules and although third LTO, he was beaten by some fourteen lengths on what was his chasing debut and 14 lengths is a big improvement to find especially as the runner-up that day has been well beaten twice since. Shortlisted horse Pilsdon Pen would be expected to go well again on soft-ish ground, but he's up 6lbs here in a tougher race than last time and can't call upon the services of regular rider Rex Dingle either. Walk In The Wild does have some soft ground form, will be up with the leaders and should be suited by conditions, whereas last time out he was undone by a longer trip on heavy ground.

It's a tricky/competitive race to call here (I wish I'd done the 5.00 Wolverhampton race now!) and none of these tick all the boxes. You could make a case for most if not all of them, but my mind tells me that Walk In The Wild's early (Hills at 3.50pm) 13/2 price offers me a bit more value than the 15/8 about Pilsdon Pen, who's definitely going to be involved.

Racing Insights, Tuesday 12/12/2023

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The Shortlist is Tuesday's free Geegeez GOLD feature and it's a simple (usually brief) report highlighting those horses with a largely ‘green’ profile in the Instant Expert Report each day and it covers win or place stats for both the current and the next day's racing.

GREEN is good (33% or better win rate) – worth 3 points
AMBER is quite good (16-32% win rate) – worth 1 point
RED is not so good (0-15% win rate) – worth -1 points
GREY means there is no available data for that factor - worth 0 points

The final column, ‘Score’, is the sum of the previous five ‘colour’ columns, with 15 being an all green profile, and 9 being the lowest score appearing on this report.

HINT: The best bets are not necessarily the highest scores. Rather, they are often the biggest difference between a Shortlist horse and the ‘best of the rest’ in that race.

N.B. Shortlist selections are unlikely to make a profit, at SP at least, to blind backing. Our recommendation has always been that The Shortlist should be a starting point rather than an end in itself. That said, it continues to highlight horses whose chance is better than recent form and its odds might imply.

[Please refer to our User Guide for further information] and here is Tuesday's Shortlist...

...with a whole swathe of qualifiers. As ever, the daily feature is complemented by a selection of fully functional racecards opened up to all readers and for Tuesday they cover...

  • 1.00 Punchestown
  • 2.52 Ffos Las
  • 3.10 Fontwell
  • 3.45 Wincanton
  • 7.00 Southwell

Two of our 'free' races feature runners from The Shortlist and the highest rated of the two is the 7.00 Southwell featuring Roarin' Success and Wild Side from above. They'll take on another half a dozen rivals in a Class 3, 3yo+ fillies A/W handicap over a left-handed mile on standard tapeta...

Our two featured runners actually raced against each other last time out at Kempton four weeks ago and here's how that one panned out...

...and with both running off the same marks here, I'd expect them to be closely matched again in a race that looks really competitive. As you can see, neither of them actually won that day, although Roarin' Success made the frame, but Achillea did win last time out and Enola Grey was a runner-up, although she now hasn't won in eleven outings, whilst Lady Mojito has lost eight on the bounce; she'll be visored for the first time here in a bid to improve her form.

None of this field actually raced at Class 3 last time out, as Wild Side, Roarin' Success, Achillea and Finery step up from Class 4 and the bottom three on the card (Hey Lyla, Lady Mojito & Enola Grey) all raced at Class 5. Yorkshire Lady's Class 2 run a month ago makes her the only class dropper here.

All bar Finery (101 days off) have had at least one outing in the last five weeks and Lady Mojito is the only runner here yet to win at this trip, whilst Finery is our sole course and distance winner.

With regards to Lady Mojito, she's bang out of form, hasn't won at the trip and is up two classes and that's enough for me to dismiss her chances here, even before we look at Instant Expert...

Now, I'm a big fan of Instant Expert, but sometimes it doesn't offer as much help as I'd like and today it just reiterates how competitive this contest could. There's no standout candidate purely on those numbers above, nor do any put themselves up for the chop. Finery seems far more experienced and has a good set of numbers to her name.

She's also our sole course and distance winner, having scored here eleven months ago from the widest draw of seven runners and she now finds herself in stall 7 of 8, which hasn't always suited runners here. In similar past contests, a draw in the middle of the stalls has been more conducive to winning here, whilst those drawn lowest make the frame most often...

...whilst our pace data from those races above says that runners racing prominently or leading are more likely to be taking some prize money home...

...and if we combined pace and draw...

...a relatively clear picture begins to form. If we then overlay this field's draw and their pace stats from their last four outings, we get an idea of how the race might pan out...

Summary

Instant Expert didn't exactly help too much today, but the pace/draw heat map suggests we should look at those drawn highest here, even if that hasn't always been successful at Southwell. Both our Shortlist runners, Wild Side & Roarin' Success are involved and although the latter looks slightly worse off than the former, she did come out best last time and off the same marks, I suspect that Roarin' Success might just hold Wild Side off, although it'll be tight again.

I actually think these will be the first two home with Finery getting towed along by them. She loves it here at Southwell and has a good record at the trip and with Hills opening up at 9/1 about her, she might be a nice E/W option. As for the two main protagonists, Roarin' Success & Wild Side, they're 3/1 and 4/1 , first and third favourites respectively.

 

 

Racing Insights, Tuesday 05/12/23

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The Shortlist is Tuesday's free Geegeez GOLD feature and it's a simple (usually brief) report highlighting those horses with a largely ‘green’ profile in the Instant Expert Report each day and it covers win or place stats for both the current and the next day's racing.

GREEN is good (33% or better win rate) – worth 3 points
AMBER is quite good (16-32% win rate) – worth 1 point
RED is not so good (0-15% win rate) – worth -1 points
GREY means there is no available data for that factor - worth 0 points

The final column, ‘Score’, is the sum of the previous five ‘colour’ columns, with 15 being an all green profile, and 9 being the lowest score appearing on this report.

HINT: The best bets are not necessarily the highest scores. Rather, they are often the biggest difference between a Shortlist horse and the ‘best of the rest’ in that race.

N.B. Shortlist selections are unlikely to make a profit, at SP at least, to blind backing. Our recommendation has always been that The Shortlist should be a starting point rather than an end in itself. That said, it continues to highlight horses whose chance is better than recent form and its odds might imply.

[Please refer to our User Guide for further information] and here is Tuesday's Shortlist...

...where I suppose Smith and Gincident would be of the most obvious immediate interest to me. As ever, the daily feature is complemented by a selection of fully functional racecards opened up to all readers and for Tuesday they cover...

  • 12.30 Lingfield
  • 1.50 Southwell
  • 3.35 Lingfield
  • 6.30 Wolverhampton

I'll swerve Southwell for fear of a second successive abandonment for us and I'll head for the race starring Gincident, which is the highest rated of the races above. It is, of course, the 7.00 Wolverhampton, a 9-runner, Class 3, 3yo+ A/W handicap over a left-handed 1m½f on standard tapeta...

...and our ever informative cards show...

FORM : No LTO winners, but Woodstock City, Talis Evolvere and Urban Sprawl were placed, but the latter is winless in his recent form-line, as is Young Fire. Woodstock City, Queen of Ipanema, Gincident and Visibility have all won two from their last six.

CLASS : Talis Evolvere, Chantico and Young Fire all step up a class, whilst bottom-weight and fast-finishing Visibility is up two classes.

WHAT'S NEW? : Sceptic and Chantico both make debuts for their new yards and the former runs for the first time since wind surgery and the latter is denoted as a fast finisher. Woodstock City runs in handicap company for the first time and also makes a UK debut after 2 wins and 4 third places from ten runs in France.

LAST SEEN? : Most of these have had a run in the last four weeks, but Scepic has been off for eleven weeks and Woodstock City for three months. However, that's nothing compared to the layoffs of Chantico (227d) and Queen of Ipanema (242d) and this pair might well be feeling it in the closing stages if they go off quickly.

COURSE/DISTANCE WINS : Queen of Ipanema has won here over 1m1½f and 1m4f, but Gincident, Young Fire and Visibility are all former course and distance winners and all these course wins are shown below in Instant Expert...

...where, as you'd expect from The Shortlist, Gincident looks very well suited to the task in hand as do to a lesser extent, Sceptic and Queen of Ipanema. Young Fire looks like a blowout after plenty of attempts to get it right here, but Visibility looks interesting if not earth-shattering.

The corresponding place data from those races above looks like this...

...with only Young Fire and Visibility looking suspect. Young Fire does, of course, occupy stall 1, so let's check our Draw Analyser to see if that's usually a help or a hindrance...

Well, it appears that there's a very slight advantage to having a higher draw, but those drawn lowest make the frame more often, but again the advantage is very slight, so I'm going to say that none of these should lose this race purely because if which stall they emerge from.

The likelihood is that much will depend on how they emerge from those stalls and how they proceed to make their way home and our Pace Analyser suggests that you want to be on a prominent/leading runner...

...and the lack of obvious pace in this pack (based on their recent outings) might give an easy opening to Urban Sprawl...

He's not a front-runner by any means, of course, but regularly races prominently and regularly makes the frame by doing so.

Summary

Whilst winless in twelve (seven on the Flat followed by five on the A/W), Urban Sprawl's last five results (all on A/W) read 33243 and was a good third on his Wolverhampton debut last time out. He drops back a furlong here and I fancy him to make the frame again here.

That said, he's probably not the winner (he tends not to be) and that's more likely to be Talis Evolvere who ran weel to finish second over 7f here last time out, having led early on, but was outpaced in the later sprint for the line. The extra yardage should help here.

Unsurprisingly, these two head the market, but they're probably the best two in the race. My longshot who might outrun his odds is Young Fire, who looks better than an 18/1 shot and if a few falter, he could make the frame here.

Racing Insights, Tuesday 28/11/23

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Tuesday's free offering from the GOLD service is the The Shortlist feature, a simple – and usually brief – report highlighting those horses with a largely ‘green’ profile in the Instant Expert Report each day. It covers win or place stats, and can be viewed for both today’s and tomorrow’s racing.

GREENis good (33% or better win rate) – worth 3 points
AMBERis quite good (16-32% win rate) – worth 1 point
REDis not so good (0-15% win rate) – worth -1 points
GREY means there is no available data for that factor - worth 0 points

The final column, ‘Score’, is the sum of the previous five ‘colour’ columns, with 15 being an all green profile, and 9 being the lowest score appearing on this report.

HINT: The best bets are not necessarily the highest scores. Rather, they are often the biggest difference between a Shortlist horse and the ‘best of the rest’ in that race.

N.B. Shortlist selections are unlikely to make a profit, at SP at least, to blind backing. Our recommendation is – and has always been – that The Shortlist should be a starting point rather than an end in itself. That said, it continues to highlight horses whose chance is better than recent form - and its odds - imply. As ever, please refer to our User Guide for further information!

And this how The Shortlist looks for this Tuesday...

And we do still also have our daily list of 'free' racecards, which are as follows...

  • 12.15 Sedgefield
  • 2.20 Sedgefield
  • 2.30 Tramore

Truth be told, the racing on offer in the UK for Tuesday looks dreadful at best, with the highest rated races being half a dozen Class 4 affairs including a pair of Novice races and a mares' maiden! Of the other three, two have just seven runners and as I do like to look for E/W value, I want more than seven runners, so we've landed on the 2.10 Southwell, an 8-runner, Class 4, 3yo+ handicap hurdle for conditional jockeys, where the trip is a left-handed 3m½f on heavy ground...

We've no LTO winners in the field, but the fast-finishing Steal My Sunshine has won two of his last three and only Mountain Leopard is winless in his last five, although Stratton Oakmount's run of form reading 1P12 came in Irish PTP contests. That said, it proves he stays and jumps and can carry 12 stones!

Ithaka's second run in a tongue-tie sees him drop down from Class 3 (16th of 18), whilst Glance from Clover (8th of 10) and Lelantos (7th of 12) both step up a class despite faring badly last time out and the former won't be helped by not having raced for 204 days.

Mind you, he's not the only one coming off a break, as Mountain Leopard and Our Bill's Aunt return from layoffs of 197 and 227 days respectively, with the other five runners all having had a run in the last month.

Lelantos is the sole runner to have either won here at Southwell or over a similar trip to this one and he has, in fact, won over course and distance, albeit just over two years ago off a mark 6lbs lower than today. That aside, Instant Expert suggests that none of the field have gone particularly well under today's expected conditions...

...where Lelantos probably shades it, although it's a fairly low bar and I think we're going to need to see the place data...

...where this quintet make most appeal on stats alone...

Three miles-plus on heavy ground might take some getting here at Southwell and from a small number of similar past races, we've found that leaders in 7-1o-runner contests of soft to heavy ground have often struggled to hang on to the lead...

...which, based on their most recent efforts, probably doesn't bode too well for the likes of Pure Theatre, Our Bill's Aunt and Mountain Leopard from the five I highlighted in Instant Expert...

...with those from course and distance winner Lelantos downwards looking better positioned here.

Summary

From the five runners I highlighted earlier, Stratton Oakmont and Lelantos make most appeal and I think both have a great chance of a top three finish. But, if I think Stratton Oakmont is going to be in the mix, I then need to consider Steal My Sunshine, who has a similar pace profile to Stratton and finished one place (4L) behind him last time out. Steal My Sunshine is 2lbs better off here and that should reduce the gap, making this pair more evenly matched.

It's not totally unfeasible that they're the first two home here and I think Stratton Oakmont should still just about hold Steal My Sunshine with Lelantos looking useful for a place. Elsewhere, I suspect Mountain Leopard being the biggest challenge to this trio.

No prices available at 3.15pm on Monday, but I'd be hoping for 11/2 or bigger about Stratton Oakmont and I doubt any of the other three will be long enough for me to go E/W, but you might.

 

Racing Insights, Tuesday 21/11/23

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Tuesday's free offering from the GOLD service is the The Shortlist feature, a simple – and usually brief – report highlighting those horses with a largely ‘green’ profile in the Instant Expert Report each day. It covers win or place stats, and can be viewed for both today’s and tomorrow’s racing.

GREENis good (33% or better win rate) – worth 3 points
AMBERis quite good (16-32% win rate) – worth 1 point
REDis not so good (0-15% win rate) – worth -1 points
GREY means there is no available data for that factor - worth 0 points

The final column, ‘Score’, is the sum of the previous five ‘colour’ columns, with 15 being an all green profile, and 9 being the lowest score appearing on this report.

HINT: The best bets are not necessarily the highest scores. Rather, they are often the biggest difference between a Shortlist horse and the ‘best of the rest’ in that race.

N.B. Shortlist selections are unlikely to make a profit, at SP at least, to blind backing. Our recommendation is – and has always been – that The Shortlist should be a starting point rather than an end in itself. That said, it continues to highlight horses whose chance is better than recent form - and its odds - imply. As ever, please refer to our User Guide for further information!

And this how The Shortlist looks for this Tuesday...

...with all three at least worth a second glance and we do still also have our daily list of 'free' racecards, which are as follows...

  • 3.55 Limerick
  • 6.15 Wolverhampton
  • 6.30 Chelmsford
  • 7.00 Chelmsford
  • 8.15 Wolverhampton

...and whilst I do normally try to 'marry up' the free feature with the free racecards, Alafdhal's race looks a bit of a stinker if truth be told, but the one before it looks better as it's as highly-rated a contest as you'll find in the UK on Tuesday. It is, of course, the 6.30 Chelmsford, an 8-runner, Class 3, 3yo+ A/W handicap over left-handed 6f on standard polytrack...

None of these managed to win their last race, but Baldomero has made the frame in his last two and in four of five despite not winning, whilst all bar bottom-weight Night On Earth (10 successive defeats) of his rivals have managed to win at least one of their last six.

Most of the field are dropping in class, as only Probe, Celsius and Night On Earth raced (unplaced) at Class 3 last time around, the others all dropp a class from Class 2, except Zaman Jemil who ran in a Listed race at Redcar. That was 37 days ago and most of the field have raced in the last two to ten weeks, but Celsius could be excused for needing a run after a six-month absence.

Probe has won over this trip at Newmarket and Wolverhampton with Zaman Jemil also having two wins at 6f; Newcastle & Thirsk, whilst Justcallmepete and Above are both course and distance winners with former also successful at Lingfield and Southwell over 6f on the A/W, as seen on Instant Expert...

...where Justcallmepete looks to be the best suited and probable market leader Baldomero seems to be all at sea. Mind you, he has only won 2 of 30 career starts (2/20 on the A/W), so I'm hoping his place stats paint him in a better light...

...and indeed they do. That said, on basic percentage terms he's only fourth on going, third on class and fourth on trip and I think Justcallmepete still looks better suited to these expected conditions. This pair will emerge from opposite ends of the stalls with our Draw Analyser suggesting that Baldomero is at the better end of the draw...

That doesn't mean that Justcallmepete can't/won't win, of course. He might well be one of the 9.38% of those drawn higher than 7 who go on to win here and if he has the right pace profile to win, then he'll have every chance. The Pace Analyser for those nearly-300 races above won't come as a surprise to many of you...

...nor, I suppose, will this pace/draw heat map...

So, the question is, who will take the races by the horns and go for it from the off? Well, if we look at this field's most recent efforts, you've have to say that Baldomero is far more likley to be up with the pace than Justcallmepete...

...and the resulting pace draw heat map...

...also says Baldomero.

Summary

Baldomero is probably the best runner in the race, he scored well on the Instant Expert place stats, is ideally drawn and seems to have the right pace profile for the contest and that's probably why he's the current (Monday 3.25pm) 11/4 favourite, but I can't be backing him at that price. Yes, he's consistent with 11 top-3 finishes from his last 20 outings, but he's a consistent loser, too, having failed to win any of those twenty races. I know that all runs come to an end at some point, but 11/4 about a horse on a 20-race losing streak, a 1 from 12 record on standard A/W, 0 from 6 at Class 3 and the same over 6f just doesn't scream value to me. I know he was only beaten by a short head last time out, but he's been raised 2lbs for that defeat, so I'll leave him.

Justcallmepete makes more sense to me at 9/2 which is probably a fair price. Yes, he's going to need a bit of luck overcoming pace and draw stats, but he has two good runs (a win and a runner-up) here over course and distance, so he knows what this place is all about and I'd rather back him than the fav.

Of the rest Zaman Jemil is interesting, a win and two places from his last five, he makes a polytrack debut here down in both class and trip and boasting a 1 from 1 record on the A/W so far, might well be involved in the shake-up, especially if towed along by Baldomero early doors.

Racing Insights, Tuesday 07/11/23

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The Shortlist is Tuesday's free Geegeez GOLD feature and it's a simple (usually brief) report highlighting those horses with a largely ‘green’ profile in the Instant Expert Report each day and it covers win or place stats for both the current and the next day's racing.

GREEN is good (33% or better win rate) – worth 3 points
AMBER is quite good (16-32% win rate) – worth 1 point
RED is not so good (0-15% win rate) – worth -1 points
GREY means there is no available data for that factor - worth 0 points

The final column, ‘Score’, is the sum of the previous five ‘colour’ columns, with 15 being an all green profile, and 9 being the lowest score appearing on this report.

HINT: The best bets are not necessarily the highest scores. Rather, they are often the biggest difference between a Shortlist horse and the ‘best of the rest’ in that race.

N.B. Shortlist selections are unlikely to make a profit, at SP at least, to blind backing. Our recommendation has always been that The Shortlist should be a starting point rather than an end in itself. That said, it continues to highlight horses whose chance is better than recent form and its odds might imply.

[Please refer to our User Guide for further information] and here is Tuesday's Shortlist...

...where a few would be of most obvious interest initially. As ever, the daily feature is complemented by a selection of fully functional racecards opened up to all readers and for Tuesday they cover the following...

  • 1.12 Lingfield
  • 2.40 Chelmsford
  • 3.58 Fairyhouse
  • 4.40 Newcastle
  • 6.25 Newcastle

There are two Class 1 races on Tuesday and one of them is on our list of free races, so we're heading off for the 1.12 Lingfield, a 12-runner, 3yo+ Fillies and Mares Listed contest over a left-handed mile on standard polytrack...

Al Agaila won last time out and Coco Jamboo has won her last two, but both step up two classes here. Potapova, Zellie, Good Gracious and Pastiche were all runners-up last time around, but the last of that quartet is now up three classes, whilst Julia Augusta and Taarabb are both up one level despite failing to make the frame at Class 2.

Our card doesn't have the benefit of showing Zellie's French form which read 1112212 before her fourth place in last year's 1000 Guineas, so she's not the one with the longest losing run on display here, that would be Potapova, Queen Aminatu and Tarrabb, who all won seven races ago.

It's not a handicap contest, so all runners carry 9-2 with a 2lb allowance for the five 3yo's in the race, making Zellie and Nigiri joint best off at the weights with Coco Jamboo rated some 15lbs worse and I suspect the top four in the official ratings would be a useful starting point for someone who didn't want to analyse the full field.

Most of the field have raced inside the last 40 days and Tarrabb ran in early September, but Julia Augusta and Zellie have been off for six months, so their fitness might have to be taken on trust.

All bar Coco Jamboo, Pastiche and Zouky have already won over a mile, but only two have won here at Lingfield before (mind you, only three have run here!). Al Agaila has finished 311 in three starts here, winning twice over 1m2f after finishing third over this trip, whilst Queen Animatu's record here reads 113 with a win and a place over 7f and a win in this very race last year, making her the sole course and distance winner. For the sake of tying loose ends up, the other Lingfield run by this field saw Zouki finish last of five back in March after a 6-month break.

All this course/distance form is shown in Instant Expert, of course, along with results on standard going and Class 1 action...

...where Al Agaila and Queen Aminatu look the ones setting the standard. In addition to the above, three of these have raced at Class 2 on the A/W, with Al Agaila winning two of three, Queen Animatu winning her only attempt and Coco Jamboo finishing 3rd of 7 at Wolverhampton in March.

Our Draw Analyser suggests that there's no real advantage to a high or low draw, based on the evidence of almost 200 past similar races...

...but the Pace Analyser says that the further forward you can race, the greater the chance of winning or making the frame, based on that same set of races...

...and this is how the field have approached their last two races...

Summary

I suggested that those people wanting to avoid a full race analysis might want to focus upon Zellie, Potapova, Queen Animatu and Nigiri and I think this quartet along with the in-form and Instant Expert-highlighted Al Agaila will be the main protagonists.

I'd expert all bar Queen Aminatu of that bunch to race prominently, but she makes up for it by having an excellent set of numbers on Instant Expert. The early market would seem to agree with my shortlist here...

..and if those are the odds I've to play with, Al Agaila is the most obvious E/W option with Bet365 paying four places. As for a winner, there won't be much in it, but I'm hoping Queen Animatu gets towed into it earlier than normal, because I think she's best suited here if not left with too much work to do. 9/2 is probably about right here too.

Zellie is a classy filly who has won at Group 1 in France and was fourth in last year's 100 Guineas and I'd say she was the best horse in the race, but I'd be concerned about her needing a run after six months off. Potapova and Nigiri should both be in the mix, but I don't think they're quite at the level of Zellie/Queen Animatu, but I wouldn't be massively shocked if one or both edged my E/W pick out of the money and with Bet365 paying the first four home, I'm tempted with an E/W saver on Nigiri, especially if she drifts out a little.

Racing Insights, Tuesday 31/10/23

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The Shortlist is Tuesday's free Geegeez GOLD feature and it's a simple (usually brief) report highlighting those horses with a largely ‘green’ profile in the Instant Expert Report each day and it covers win or place stats for both the current and the next day's racing.

GREEN is good (33% or better win rate) – worth 3 points
AMBER is quite good (16-32% win rate) – worth 1 point
RED is not so good (0-15% win rate) – worth -1 points
GREY means there is no available data for that factor - worth 0 points

The final column, ‘Score’, is the sum of the previous five ‘colour’ columns, with 15 being an all green profile, and 9 being the lowest score appearing on this report.

HINT: The best bets are not necessarily the highest scores. Rather, they are often the biggest difference between a Shortlist horse and the ‘best of the rest’ in that race.

N.B. Shortlist selections are unlikely to make a profit, at SP at least, to blind backing. Our recommendation has always been that The Shortlist should be a starting point rather than an end in itself. That said, it continues to highlight horses whose chance is better than recent form and its odds might imply.

[Please refer to our User Guide for further information] and here is Tuesday's Shortlist...

...where I'm Spartacus, Goobinator and Cold Henry would of the the most obvious immediate interest. As ever, the daily feature is complemented by a selection of fully functional racecards opened up to all readers and for this Tuesday they cover the following...

  • 12.20 Curragh
  • 2.25 Bangor
  • 3.30 Bangor
  • 6.45 Newcastle
  • 7.15 Newcastle

And from the two Newcastle races from the free list and the three highlighted shortlist races, we've got Class 4 and Class 5 flat handicaps and A/W handicaps at Class 5 and Class 6 plus a Class 5 Novice race. These are hardly the best races, but I'll go with the highest rated, which sees Goobinator line up in the 2.17 Catterick, a 6-runner, Class 4, 3yo+ flat handicap over a left handed 1m4f on heavy ground...

GOOBINATOR won back to back 2m½f handicaps on quicker ground than this back in July/September 2021 and hasn't raced since finishing 5th of 12 over 2m½f at Haydock 17 months ago, so might well need the run here. He's 1 from 1 over 1m4f, but most of his running is done over 2m to 2m1f and I fear this might be too sharp for him today, but he is down two classes from that last run.

REEL ROSIE stayed on really well to land a heavy ground 1m2½f handicap at Chester at the end of September, but was well beaten on soft ground next/last time out a fortnight ago. She's relatively untested on ground worse than good (1 win from 3) with most of her racing (12 starts) on good or good to firm ground. Only female in the race.

DARK JEDI won over today's trip at Ripon back in 2021, but is winless in fourteen starts since landing a Class 2, heavy ground 1m6½f handicap at Doncaster just over a year ago. He now runs off a mark some 16lbs lower than that win and could well be dangerously handicapped here, although he's only a pound lower than when a runner-up beaten by 6.5 lengths over this course and distance 10 days ago, struggling late on.

ANIMATO was a runner-up over this trip at Pontefract three starts ago and was third of nine at York last time out over an extended 2m on soft ground. He's back down in trip here and takes a drop in class whilst wearing a visor for the first time

GENESIUS won over this trip at Thirsk on soft ground just over four months ago and has made the first three home on each of his last three outings, including once over course and distance. He wasn't well positioned at Wolverhampton last time out and had to squeeze through a gap to run on for third, going down by a length and a quarter. Would have been closer with a clearer run.

GASTRONOMY is a ten-race maiden who has made the frame just once and was last of 5 in a 1m6f, soft-ground handicap at this course just over five weeks ago. He has been eased three more pounds (now 10lbs lower than April!) here and wears a tongue tie for the first time, but I fear he'll need more help than that.

Instant Expert says...

...that half of the field are untried on heavy ground, but Reel Rosie & Dark Jedi have won on it. Goobinator is the pick of the pack at this grade, but four of them do have reasonable records. Dark Jedi probably has the best overall make-up based on place stats, but his actual win record a this trip is a concern.

To get enough workable data from the draw analyser, I've had to open up the parameters somewhat, but in a logical manner and whilst there's not a huge pace bias (as you'd expect over such a trip with a small field)...

...those drawn highest have had a slight advantage, although I suspect race tactics aka pace will be the deciding feature here, so let's check the pace analyser for those races above...

Leaders do as well as expected (A/E = 1.00), but the prominent runner looks the one to be on, possibly picking the winner off late on. What is clear is that a prominent runner is more than twice as likely to win than a runner from further back. The way these runners have approached their most recent outings...

...suggests that Reel Rosie might well be afforded a soft/easy lead with the rest of the field fairly well bunched together, but if we apply our field's draw and running styles to out pace/draw heat map...

...it looks like the three main protagonists might be Genesius, Animato and Dark Jedi.

Summary

From the pace/draw heat map above we had Genesius, Animato and Dark Jedi and the latter was the pick of the bunch on Instant Expert. He might well be on a long losing run, but ran well last time out and is off a dangerous mark. this looks a poor contest that shouldn't take too much winning, so I'll side with Dark Jedi here. He's the current 5/2 fav with Hills and that's probably fair.

The only runner higher than Reel Rosie's 7/1 ticket is the 20/1 Gastronomy and I don't really fancy either for a place, as I think the bookies have it right when they say it'll be tight between Genesius (7/2) and Animato (4/1) and this ties in well with our pace/draw heat map.

Racing Insights, Tuesday 24/10/23

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The Shortlist is Tuesday's free Geegeez GOLD feature and it's a simple (usually brief) report highlighting those horses with a largely ‘green’ profile in the Instant Expert Report each day and it covers win or place stats for both the current and the next day's racing.

GREEN is good (33% or better win rate) – worth 3 points
AMBER is quite good (16-32% win rate) – worth 1 point
RED is not so good (0-15% win rate) – worth -1 points
GREY means there is no available data for that factor - worth 0 points

The final column, ‘Score’, is the sum of the previous five ‘colour’ columns, with 15 being an all green profile, and 9 being the lowest score appearing on this report.

HINT: The best bets are not necessarily the highest scores. Rather, they are often the biggest difference between a Shortlist horse and the ‘best of the rest’ in that race.

N.B. Shortlist selections are unlikely to make a profit, at SP at least, to blind backing. Our recommendation has always been that The Shortlist should be a starting point rather than an end in itself. That said, it continues to highlight horses whose chance is better than recent form and its odds might imply.

[Please refer to our User Guide for further information]

Here are my qualifiers on Tuesday's Shortlist...

...and as ever, the daily feature is complemented by a selection of fully functional racecards opened up to all readers and for Tuesday they cover...

  • 2.30 Exeter
  • 3.10 Hereford
  • 4.00 Exeter
  • 7.30 Wolverhampton

And as one of my runners from The Shortlist is in one of our free races, I think we should look at Ajp Kingdom and his rivals in the 4.00 Exeter, an 11-runner, Class 3, 4yo+ handicap hurdle over a right handed 2m7f on good ground...

Bottom weight Oceanline and The Imposter both won last time out and the latter has won his last three and has six wins and a runner-up finish from his last seven outings. Goshhowposh and Brave Starlight are both three-race maidens, whilst Royal Pretender and Moka de Vassy are winless in eight and ten races respectively; the former does place regularly though, but the latter is now 0 from 10!

Plenty of these are moving class here with Itso Fury, Go Chique, Ajp Kingdom and Brave Starlight all dropping in from Class 2, whilst the ten-race maiden Moka de Vassy, Goshhowposh and the form horse The Impostor all step up from Class 4.

Goshhowposh and Brave Starlight are both making handicap debuts here today after breaks of 297 and 144 days respectively, but others are returning from layoffs too, as Exmoor Forest, Itso Fury, The Imposter and Royal Pretender have been rested for 165, 199, 20 and 325 days themselves. The other five in the race have all been out in the last six weeks, though.

None of the field have won here at Exeter before, but only three have been here in a total of five races and whilst we also have no 2m7f winners, Ajp Kingdom, Gentleman Valley, Go Chique and The Imposter have all won at both 2m7½f and 3m.

Instant Expert says that this bunch haven't fared too well at this grade and we already know about the lack of course wins...

...but if we're looking at going and distance, then Itso Fury, Gentleman Valley and Ajp Kingdom are the eyecatchers with honourable mentions for Go Chique and The Imposter. Royal Pretender has failed to win any of eight starts at Class 3, but he hasn't struggled in all of them, as the place stats will show...

...in fact his place credentials look pretty good there and he's probably second best on numbers behind Itso Fury.

When it comes to judging the pace of the contest, previous similar races here at Exeter haven't been kind to hold-up horses...

...but thankfully none of these are out and out hold-up types, according to their last few runs...

I'd expect The Imposter and Ajp Kingdom to try to control the race from the front, but they probably won't be able to break clear from a group where all runners bar Goshhowposh have led/ran prominently in at least one of their last four outings and I think we're going to have a fairly tight bunch travelling together.

Summary

This looks a really tight/open race with plenty holding chances. So much so that the early Hills prices for this race only ranged from 6/1 to 12/1 for the whole field and it looks a tough one to call. Personally, I like The Imposter's form and he's very game, I also like the way Itso Fury scored well in the analysis, whilst Ajp Kingdom's place on The Shortlist must stand him in good stead.

Gentleman Valley also scored well on Instant Expert and E/W bettors have done well out of Royal Pretender, who has placed in 8 of his 13 starts over hurdles.

You really could make a case for most of these to put a decent effort in, but the five above would be the ones that interest me most. If pushed to pick a winner, I think I'd go with Itso Fury at 6/1 ahead of he similarly priced The Imposter. As you know I only like to play the E/W markets if I can get 8/1 or bigger, but both Gentleman Valley and Royal Pretender are offered at 10's, so they're options, especially with Betfred, Coral & Skybet all paying four places.

That said, it's not a race to put too much money on, but it could be an interesting watch.

 

Racing Insights, Tuesday 17/10/23

/in /by

The Shortlist is Tuesday's free Geegeez GOLD feature and it's a simple (usually brief) report highlighting those horses with a largely ‘green’ profile in the Instant Expert Report each day and it covers win or place stats for both the current and the next day's racing.

GREEN is good (33% or better win rate) – worth 3 points
AMBER is quite good (16-32% win rate) – worth 1 point
RED is not so good (0-15% win rate) – worth -1 points
GREY means there is no available data for that factor - worth 0 points

The final column, ‘Score’, is the sum of the previous five ‘colour’ columns, with 15 being an all green profile, and 9 being the lowest score appearing on this report.

HINT: The best bets are not necessarily the highest scores. Rather, they are often the biggest difference between a Shortlist horse and the ‘best of the rest’ in that race.

N.B. Shortlist selections are unlikely to make a profit, at SP at least, to blind backing. Our recommendation has always been that The Shortlist should be a starting point rather than an end in itself. That said, it continues to highlight horses whose chance is better than recent form and its odds might imply.

[Please refer to our User Guide for further information]

Here are my qualifiers on Tuesday's Shortlist...

...and as ever, the daily feature is complemented by a selection of fully functional racecards opened up to all readers and for Tuesday they cover...

  • 2.50 Leicester
  • 3.05 Gowran Park
  • 3.35 Hereford
  • 5.35 Huntingdon

...and of the nine races above, the one featuring Valsad is the highest-rated, so we're heading for the 4.55 Newcastle, a 12-runner, Class 2, 3yo+, A/W handicap over a left-handed 1m4½f  on standard tapeta...

Before analysing the race in the way I normally do, I need to mention that the top weight Military March muddies the waters somewhat here. He hasn't raced anywhere in the last 999 days since only finishing eighth of 11 to Lord Glitters in Singspiel Stakes at Meydan, despite being sent off as the 11/8 fav and it's 1228 days since his last UK run which saw him finish fourth in 2020's 2000 Guineas on just his third outing. His second outing was four years and almost a week ago and that was a Group 3 victory.

I'm mentioning all this, because it's quite possible that he won't come out of my analysis too well, but Godolphin don't keep horses in training for no reason, do they? And there's no doubting his past ability, so I'll need to keep this in mind.

What we do know is that both Capital Theory and bottom weight (carrying two stone less than Military March!) Wynter Wildes won last time out and that Haunted Dream, Stowell and Onesmoothoperator are all without a win in their racecard-visible formline, having lost their last 6, 9 and 17 races respectively.

Military March and Blanchard are on handicap debuts here and are both down in class, as their last UK run were at Group 1 and Listed class respectively, but the bottom four on the card are all up in class; Southern Voyage, Capital Theory & Sir Chauvelin are up from Class 3, whilst Wynter Wildes won a Class 4 handicap at Yarmouth last time out. All bar Capital Thory of the four class risers have already won here over course and distance, whilst Blanchland and Onesmoothoperator have both won here, over a mile and 1m2f respectively, but neither have won over a similar trip to this one, nor have Military March, Wooton'Sun or Capital Theory.

Military March has been gelded during his long absence, Wynter Wildes is the sole female in the race, Sir Chauvelin is the oldest at 11 yrs of age and our sole 3 yr old, Blanchard, gets a useful 6lbs weight for age allowance and Instant Expert's overview of past runs under similar conditions looks like this...

Valsad made The Shortlist, of course, but we now see that it was based on just one run/win on the A/W at Southwell a month ago. Haunted Dream, Capital Theory and Sir Chauvelin have multiple A/W wins and the latter definitely likes this trip, whereas Onesmoothoperator's win record looks dreadful, despite the following graphic suggesting that he's usually a very good E/W bet...

...having made the frame in 12 of his 16 A/W starts including seven of eight here at Newcastle and he's possibly the pick on place form alone. He'll run from stall 4, whilst Godolphin's returner, Military March, has got box number 1 but past similar races here at Newcastle appear to have favoured those drawn highest...

...which could be good news for the likes of Southern Voyage, Wynter Wildes, Valsad and Haunted Dream. Those 40-odd races above really haven't been kind to horses that lead with the staling prominent horses picking them off late on..

When we look at how these runners have approached their last few races, we can attempt to predict how they'll tackle this one. Military March, of course, will be tricky to assess on A/W debut after a long absence, but here's how they have raced of late...

We've no out and out front runner here, but Capital Theory won from the front LTO, so might be tempted to take it on here, whilst Military March won the Group 3 Dubai Autumn Stakes from the front four years ago; Wootton'Sun, Omniscient and Blanchland have all also set the pace in one of their last four runs.

Summary

On past achievements, Military March should be absolutely thrown in on handicap debut off a mark of 107. I know it's more gut feeling than fact, but Godolphin don't bring horses back after three years off if they're no good and this makes him the one to beat here, but I'm not backing him at 11/4 or 3/1 taking fitness on trust, so I'll look elsewhere for a bet.

Wynter Wildes won nicely last time out and although up in class, she's carrying two stones less than the above-mentioned fav and at 14/1 could be a nice E/W bet, especially with most firms paying four places. I also like Haunted Dream and Valsad as potential placers, but 13/2 isn't quite long enough for me.

One that could be a bet at 8/1 or bigger is LTO winner Capital Theory, but the main interest in this race has to be how former star Military March fares on comeback, I wish him well.

 

Racing Insights, Tuesday 10/10/23

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The Shortlist is Tuesday's free Geegeez GOLD feature and it's a simple (usually brief) report highlighting those horses with a largely ‘green’ profile in the Instant Expert Report each day and it covers win or place stats for both the current and the next day's racing.

GREEN is good (33% or better win rate) – worth 3 points
AMBER is quite good (16-32% win rate) – worth 1 point
RED is not so good (0-15% win rate) – worth -1 points
GREY means there is no available data for that factor - worth 0 points

The final column, ‘Score’, is the sum of the previous five ‘colour’ columns, with 15 being an all green profile, and 9 being the lowest score appearing on this report.

HINT: The best bets are not necessarily the highest scores. Rather, they are often the biggest difference between a Shortlist horse and the ‘best of the rest’ in that race.

N.B. Shortlist selections are unlikely to make a profit, at SP at least, to blind backing. Our recommendation has always been that The Shortlist should be a starting point rather than an end in itself. That said, it continues to highlight horses whose chance is better than recent form and its odds might imply.

[Please refer to our User Guide for further information]

Here are my qualifiers on Tuesday's Shortlist...

...with all three seeming worth a second glance if nothing else, whilst as ever, the daily feature is complemented by a selection of fully functional racecards opened up to all readers and for Tuesday they cover...

  • 2.12 Leicester
  • 4.10 Punchestown
  • 4.20 Huntingdon
  • 4.32 Leicester
  • 5.30 Huntingdon

And the highest rated of the UK races above is the 4.32 Leicester, an 11-runner, Class 3, 3yo+ flat handicap over a right-handed 1m2f on good to soft ground that will be better in palces...

Top weight Box to Box won last time out and has two wins and two runner-up finishes from his last five outings, whilst Forceful Speed has won three on the bounce and is five from his last eight. Kitsune Power and The City's Phantom are the only ones without a win in their visible formline.

Forceful Speed is up a class here, though, as is fast finishing Fantasy Believer, whilst Beraz, Kitsune Power and James McHenry all drop down a level. Beraz, Chelsea Green, James McHenry and Zirhab have yet to win over today's trip, but the latter has won here over a mile; Kitsune Power is the only other previous course winner, having scored over 7f back in April 2022.

Five of this field (Chelsea Green, Forceful Speed, James McHenry, Intricacy and Ziryab) recieve a 4lb weight allowances as three year olds, whilst the last three of thse five listed are running for the first time since being gelded. That said, Ziryab's 81-day absence is the longest of all eleven runners with six of his opponents having raced in the last four weeks.

Instant Expert says...

...that plenty of these have shown an aptitude/liking for one or more of today's expected conditions without too many alarm belles ringing in my head. On the basis of the above, Box To Box looks well suited, despite a 3lb weight rise and Forceful Speed will certainly get the trip. The place stats from those races above looks like this...

...where again Box To Box looks the one to beat. Intricacy scores well here too, of course. He's drawn right out in stall 11 of 11, but past similar contests suggest that this wouldn't necessarily ruin his chances...

...as it's the lower end of the draw that seems to have come out worst, although that's not totally bad news for Ziryab in stall 1, as the following breakdown shows...

All of which tempts me to say that the draw might well play second fiddle to the pace of the contest in determining who wins here and if we look at those races above, the data says that you don't want to be dawdling early on...

...which would suit up to a half-dozen of these, based on the way they've approached their last four races...

Summary

The obvious starting point for me has to be Box To Box. He's in great form, scored well (the best) on Instant Expert, is drawn high enough not to be classed as a low draw and will set the tempo of the contest. He's currently 8/1 wit Betfair/PP, so that's an E/W bet in my eyes.

Whether he wins or not might well depend on how close Forceful Speed sticks to him. This 3yr old is flying right now, having won his last three and is unpenalised for his last success; a similar run here makes him difficult to beat and the market reflects this with him being the 3/1 fav.

These are the two that interest me the most and I don't see there being too much between them. As for another runner for the frame, I'd probably side with the 5/1 Intricacy. He's in good nick, has the eight allowance and Instant Expert says he's a regular placer. He's too short for an E/W bet in my eyes, but I expect him to be in the mix.

Racing Insights, Tuesday 03/10/23

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Greetings from Sunny Santorini, where the wifi seems to be fairly stable, so let's crack on before it goes down!

The Shortlist is Tuesday's free Geegeez GOLD feature and it's a simple (usually brief) report highlighting those horses with a largely ‘green’ profile in the Instant Expert Report each day and it covers win or place stats for both the current and the next day's racing.

GREEN is good (33% or better win rate) – worth 3 points
AMBER is quite good (16-32% win rate) – worth 1 point
RED is not so good (0-15% win rate) – worth -1 points
GREY means there is no available data for that factor - worth 0 points

The final column, ‘Score’, is the sum of the previous five ‘colour’ columns, with 15 being an all green profile, and 9 being the lowest score appearing on this report.

HINT: The best bets are not necessarily the highest scores. Rather, they are often the biggest difference between a Shortlist horse and the ‘best of the rest’ in that race.

N.B. Shortlist selections are unlikely to make a profit, at SP at least, to blind backing. Our recommendation has always been that The Shortlist should be a starting point rather than an end in itself. That said, it continues to highlight horses whose chance is better than recent form and its odds might imply.

[Please refer to our User Guide for further information]

Here are my qualifiers on Tuesday's Shortlist...

...where the first four named are of more obvious immediate interest than the others, whilst as ever, the daily feature is complemented by a selection of fully functional racecards opened up to all readers and for Tuesday they cover...

  • 3.00 Galway
  • 3.22 Ayr
  • 4.05 Southwell
  • 7.00 Wolverhampton
  • 8.30 Wolverhampton

...with the 'best' (class/on paper) of them being the 3.22 Ayr, a 7-runner, Class 3, 3yo+ flat handicap over a left-handed 7f (plus 59yds) on soft ground...

Three of this field, Master Zoffany, Autumn Festival and William Dewhurst managed to win last time out, but the latter pait are up 1 and 2 classes respectively, whilst the former actually drops down from Class 2, as do Sirona, Abduction and On A Session for a race where all seven runners are class movers with Rock Melody also up one class. He was actually placed third last time out, but along with Sirona and On A Session, is winless in his recent formline.

All bar William Dewhurst have won over today's trip and by virtue of winning this race last year, Abduction is the sole course (course & distance) winner and all runners have had at least one outing in the past month.

Instant Expert says...

...that Autumn Festival loves the soft ground and has a great record over today's type of trip and that Abduction has a poor win record at this grade but loves it here at Ayr. On A Session looks vulnerable at the distance and no runner is below their last Flat winning mark; Sirona has yet to win a handicap, but does have good place form from an albeit limited number of qualifying runs...

...where Autumn Festival is again the eyecatcher, but good to see that three of these have gone well on soft ground in the past.

The Draw Analyser says...

...that there's not a great deal to be gained/lost from whichever stall a runner is allocated and this is backed up by the PRB3 stats...

...which would lead me to assume that the race is going be decided by tactics and how the race is approached.

And the Pace Analyser says...

...that horses racing prominently or leading go on to win 70.5% of the races, despite providing just 52.4% of the runners, with those who led easily faring best. This field's most recent outings have looked like this...

...with both Sirona snd On A Session both having three prominent runs from four, but no obvious pace maker here, although Autumn Festival ended a nine-race losing run by making all last time out and did win five on the bounce from the front from July to October last year. The return to front-running tactics heralded the end of the losing run and I can see him setting pace here.

Summary

Autumn Festival won last time out, making all and similar tactics here will be very helpful in his bid to follow up. He has the best soft ground form of this field and was the Instant Expert eyecatcher, so at 11/4 with Hills, he's my pick.

Master Zoffany also won last time out and drops in class, but a lack of early pace might well be his undoing. I expect him to come strongly late on, but he might just fail to get up.

Aside from those two, I've no real strong feelings about the race, although Sirona might well outrun her 12/1 odds if your bookie is paying three places, as many are.

Racing Insights, Tuesday 26/09/23

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The Shortlist is Tuesday's free Geegeez GOLD feature and it's a simple (usually brief) report highlighting those horses with a largely ‘green’ profile in the Instant Expert Report each day and it covers win or place stats for both the current and the next day's racing.

GREEN is good (33% or better win rate) – worth 3 points
AMBER is quite good (16-32% win rate) – worth 1 point
RED is not so good (0-15% win rate) – worth -1 points
GREY means there is no available data for that factor - worth 0 points

The final column, ‘Score’, is the sum of the previous five ‘colour’ columns, with 15 being an all green profile, and 9 being the lowest score appearing on this report.

HINT: The best bets are not necessarily the highest scores. Rather, they are often the biggest difference between a Shortlist horse and the ‘best of the rest’ in that race.

N.B. Shortlist selections are unlikely to make a profit, at SP at least, to blind backing. Our recommendation has always been that The Shortlist should be a starting point rather than an end in itself. That said, it continues to highlight horses whose chance is better than recent form and its odds might imply.

[Please refer to our User Guide for further information] and here is Tuesday's Shortlist...

...where I suppose Holkham Bay would be of the most obvious immediate interest. As ever, the daily feature is complemented by a selection of fully functional racecards opened up to all readers and for Tuesday they cover...

  • 1.20 Cork
  • 2.25 Lingfield
  • 4.15 Cork
  • 4.35 Beverley
  • 8.00 Newcastle

To be honest, none of the UK 'free' races nor those on The Shortlist float my boat today, so I'm looking elsewhere for my column. Nottingham has a handful of Class 2 handicaps, the middle one of which is the 4.25 Nottingham, a 12-runner, Class 2, 3yo+ flat handicap over a eft-handed 1m2f on good to soft/soft ground...

Olympicus and Eton College both won last time out, but Golden Maverick, Warren Hill, Damascus Steel, Jewel Maker and Ectocross all have wins in their recent formlines. None of these raced at Class 2 last time around, in fact they're all up in class by two to four levels and all raced in the last six weeks.

Warren Hill and Damascus Steel are former course and distance winners, but only Eton College (1m½f) of their rivals has won here before, but all bar Gordon Grey (first-time cheekpieces today), Hakuna Babe, Eton College, The Conqueror and Corsican Caper (first-time blinkers today) have won over today's trip, as verified by Instant Expert...

...which looks good for Golden Maverick, based on the going and the trip. He's never been to Nottingham before and has no Class 2 experience, but neither really have his rivals. Jewel Maker looks up against on the going, though, failing to win any of 18 attempts and the place data below says he's only made the frame in three of those races...

The ones faring best on the place data would be Damascus Steel, Eton College, Golden Maverick and Warren Hill and this quartet are drawn together in stalls 7 to 10 over a track and trip that has marginally favoured those drawn lowest...

...and also those preferring to set the pace...

Again, the bias isn't huge but when you align the draw stats that just about favour the low drawn horses with the pace stats that are slightly for those setting the tempo, the pace/draw heat map shows more of a combined bias...

...with low drawn leaders making the frame in 13 of 29 efforts (44.8%), going on to win six times (20.7%)...

Sadly, there aren't many here who like to lead and I suspect we're in for a falsely run race...

Summary

We're not actually getting much help from the pace/draw angles here but we know that Olympicus, Eton College, Golden Maverick, Warren Hill, Damascus Steel, Jewel Maker and Ectocross are all in decent nick and that Damascus Steel, Eton College, Golden Maverick and Warren Hill caught my eye on Instant Expert, which makes the trio of Eton College, Golden Maverick and Warren Hill of interest to me here.

This trio are priced at 15/2, 4/1 jt fav and 4/1jt fav respectively and if pushed to make a bet on one to win, I think I'd lean towards Golden Maverick with Eton College a possible E/W bet, especially with some firms paying 4 places.